Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 18, 2020
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Monday, February 17, 2020 |
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Wednesday, February 19, 2020 ]
DAY 141
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 10.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.01°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.181
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -55
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.54 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 188 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.70 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-02-19 04:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 25.73006 | 10.29002 | 18.01004 | 188.432694 | 0 | 1 | 15.54 | 16.54 | T | T | -6.26994 | -55.26994 | 49 | 422.9639201408 | 79.700230936932 | 0.18062752758869 | 87 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 142 | -144 | 23.54 | 23.54 | 23.54 | 190 | 0 | 1 | 15.54 | 16.54 | T | T | -8.46 | -57.46 | 49 | 423.65894883679 | 80.49520027899 | 0.11942392147229 | 87 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 33.95 | 21.98 | 27.965 | 190.00519139088 | 0.0106 | 1.0106 | 15.54 | 16.5506 | T | T | 1.95 | -47.05 | 49 | 423.66124638729 | 80.497836204716 | 0.5320691123354 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 08:01:25 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.27 | 17.71 | 25.99 | 190.01012947854 | 0.0098 | 1.0098 | 15.54 | 16.5498 | T | T | 2.27 | -46.73 | 49 | 423.66343180543 | 80.500343532675 | 0.54741883868749 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 29.99 | 17.65 | 23.82 | 190.48217541668 | 0.0169 | 1.0169 | 15.54 | 16.5569 | T | T | -2.01 | -51.01 | 49 | 423.87221568213 | 80.74010174182 | 0.34528637783601 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.62 | 16.34 | 25.48 | 187.01775541392 | 0.0098 | 0.5998 | 15.54 | 16.1398 | T | T | 2.62 | -59.38 | 49 | 422.3340785349 | 78.983971402402 | 0.56412602145999 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.62 | 15.88 | 25.25 | 187.03031042661 | 0.011 | 0.621 | 15.54 | 16.161 | T | T | 2.62 | -46.38 | 49 | 422.33967719586 | 78.990320931415 | 0.56412602145999 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 15:57:28 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.59 | 16.44 | 25.515 | 187.00019015744 | 0.0062 | 0.6162 | 15.54 | 16.1562 | T | T | 2.59 | -46.41 | 49 | 422.32624535465 | 78.975088189794 | 0.5626980194889 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.54 | 16.01 | 25.275 | 187.05978869469 | 0.0039 | 0.6139 | 15.54 | 16.1539 | T | T | 2.54 | -46.46 | 49 | 422.35282174798 | 79.005229590783 | 0.56031620933879 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 29.27 | 13.14 | 21.205 | 187.10331823092 | 0.0023 | 0.6123 | 15.54 | 16.1523 | T | T | -2.73 | -51.73 | 49 | 422.37223005265 | 79.027245771444 | 0.31380633714591 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 04:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.11 | 15.3 | 24.705 | 186.98746905545 | 0.0019 | 0.6719 | 15.54 | 16.2119 | T | T | 2.11 | -50.89 | 49 | 422.32057219423 | 78.968654924648 | 0.5397513804805 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.34 | 13.89 | 24.115 | 175.95110049964 | 0.002 | 0.202 | 15.54 | 15.742 | T | T | 2.34 | -49.66 | 49 | 417.32902807642 | 73.429501760493 | 0.5507679705391 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.18 | 13.62 | 23.9 | 173.93480368805 | 0.0021 | 0.7121 | 15.54 | 16.2521 | T | T | 2.18 | -42.82 | 49 | 416.40188088553 | 72.426779407159 | 0.54310788312201 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.26 | 15.17 | 24.715 | 174.02175844095 | 0.0016 | 0.7316 | 15.54 | 16.2716 | T | T | 2.26 | -42.74 | 49 | 416.44196305421 | 72.469962699296 | 0.5469401101004 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 30.07 | 14.74 | 22.405 | 176.28655124569 | 0.002 | 0.772 | 15.54 | 16.312 | T | T | -1.93 | -46.93 | 49 | 417.48281712434 | 73.596606035185 | 0.34885630118167 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.18 | 14.22 | 24.2 | 175.95805574266 | 0.0024 | 0.7324 | 15.54 | 16.2724 | T | T | 2.18 | -42.82 | 49 | 417.33221807232 | 73.432965690778 | 0.54310788312201 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.45 | 15.32 | 24.885 | 175.90805537312 | 0.0027 | 0.6927 | 15.54 | 16.2327 | T | T | 2.45 | -44.55 | 49 | 417.30928433826 | 73.40806469709 | 0.55602350198223 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.34 | 16.64 | 25.49 | 175.93990441291 | 0.0013 | 0.8713 | 15.55 | 16.4213 | T | T | 2.34 | -41.66 | 49 | 417.32389291522 | 73.423925828729 | 0.5507679705391 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.02 | 16.03 | 25.525 | 174.28528899405 | 0.001 | 0.731 | 16.47 | 17.201 | T | T | 3.02 | -32.98 | 49 | 416.56338454345 | 72.600869859494 | 0.58307908524284 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 30.87 | 16.53 | 23.7 | 174.57872420564 | 0.001 | 0.771 | 16.47 | 17.241 | T | T | -1.13 | -37.13 | 49 | 416.69848898104 | 72.746690584728 | 0.38524561528866 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 34.57 | 15.61 | 25.09 | 175.96021442845 | 0.0006 | 0.8706 | 16.47 | 17.3406 | T | T | 2.57 | -29.43 | 49 | 417.33320813394 | 73.434040791362 | 0.56174556306751 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 29.28 | 15.41 | 22.345 | 176.80239271511 | 0.0033 | 0.7933 | 16.65 | 17.4433 | T | T | -2.72 | -39.72 | 49 | 417.71905165729 | 73.853727815697 | 0.31423507529708 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 36.06 | 13.36 | 24.71 | 178.71317921246 | 0.0039 | 0.8239 | 16.91 | 17.7339 | T | T | 4.06 | -37.94 | 49 | 418.59142276376 | 74.807803953179 | 0.63135977531788 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 36.08 | 15.31 | 25.695 | 173.38377236011 | 0.0045 | 0.9545 | 16.5 | 17.4545 | T | T | 4.08 | -27.92 | 49 | 416.1476747111 | 72.153253700298 | 0.63227086978638 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.32 | 16.68 | 26 | 173.42463142325 | 0.0002 | 0.9002 | 16.79 | 17.6902 | T | T | 3.32 | -28.68 | 49 | 416.16653635586 | 72.173528178206 | 0.59717073057409 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.57 | 17.49 | 26.53 | 173.39575198551 | 0.0006 | 0.9106 | 16.77 | 17.6806 | T | T | 3.57 | -26.43 | 49 | 416.15320503188 | 72.159197927681 | 0.60881894397084 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 11:59:30 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.43 | 18.03 | 26.73 | 175.2721790259 | 0.0006 | 0.9406 | 16.59 | 17.5306 | T | T | 3.43 | -32.57 | 49 | 417.01737191793 | 73.091543467709 | 0.60230723858055 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.45 | 17.92 | 26.685 | 177.31931281187 | 0.0008 | 1.0208 | 16.86 | 17.8808 | T | T | 3.45 | -41.55 | 49 | 417.95546986674 | 74.111576702733 | 0.6032392752821 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 04:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.85 | 18.13 | 26.99 | 178.11039032819 | 0.0008 | 1.1108 | 17.16 | 18.2708 | T | T | 3.85 | -37.15 | 49 | 418.31667603558 | 74.506546449487 | 0.62174959366851 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.89 | 18.15 | 27.02 | 176.71069083708 | 0.0008 | 1.0008 | 17.26 | 18.2608 | T | T | 3.89 | -35.11 | 49 | 417.6770785236 | 73.808005092719 | 0.6235861268685 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 36.93 | 17.58 | 27.255 | 180.26915149215 | 0.0007 | 1.1707 | 17.15 | 18.3207 | T | T | 4.93 | -21.07 | 49 | 419.29868214491 | 75.586617652039 | 0.67024680615838 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 12:02:17 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 36.32 | 17.68 | 27 | 153.73018039082 | 0.0007 | 1.3407 | 4.25 | 5.5907 | T | F | 4.32 | -53.68 | 49 | 406.84429517567 | 62.544246888333 | 0.64314468292058 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 36.33 | 17.69 | 27.01 | 154.60153563193 | 0.0007 | 1.4107 | 4.28 | 5.6907 | T | F | 4.33 | -53.67 | 49 | 407.26668015304 | 62.964054163377 | 0.64359531671578 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 08:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.72 | 20.06 | 27.89 | 154.73646393166 | 0.0159 | 1.3859 | 4.23 | 5.6159 | T | F | 3.72 | -51.28 | 49 | 407.33200240634 | 63.029113698559 | 0.61576204386987 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.74 | 20.06 | 27.9 | 154.3649815353 | 0.0159 | 1.3159 | 4.25 | 5.5659 | T | F | 3.74 | -51.26 | 49 | 407.15210419954 | 62.850027046818 | 0.61668504503068 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 04:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.46 | 19.8 | 27.63 | 17.884375969683 | 0.0156 | 1.3556 | 4.26 | 5.6156 | T | F | 3.46 | -50.54 | 49 | 328.11822888616 | 5.8681897679065 | 0.6037050729718 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.47 | 19.8 | 27.635 | 18.429534264195 | 0.0156 | 1.3056 | 4.3 | 5.6056 | T | F | 3.47 | -52.53 | 49 | 328.49153774213 | 6.0539460503166 | 0.60417072270999 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 00:02:17 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.51 | 19.81 | 27.66 | 156.04581817425 | 0.0156 | 1.3256 | 4.19 | 5.5156 | T | F | 3.51 | -60.49 | 49 | 407.9647330491 | 63.661190554887 | 0.6060318295112 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 35.53 | 19.81 | 27.67 | 155.23514149594 | 0.0156 | 1.3556 | 4.15 | 5.5056 | T | F | 3.53 | -48.47 | 49 | 407.57323084074 | 63.26968815952 | 0.60696147879337 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 08:02:16 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 39.96 | 22.9 | 31.43 | 157.18205953453 | 0.0024 | 1.2924 | 4.77 | 6.0624 | T | F | 7.96 | -38.04 | 49 | 408.51210605286 | 64.210774174178 | 0.79011268983367 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 39.97 | 22.91 | 31.44 | 157.10498243731 | 0.0024 | 1.2924 | 4.78 | 6.0724 | T | F | 7.97 | -33.03 | 49 | 408.47502485162 | 64.173461605396 | 0.790460809772 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 04:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 40.01 | 22.93 | 31.47 | 19.45296436089 | 0.0024 | 1.2924 | 4.72 | 6.0124 | T | F | 8.01 | -33.99 | 49 | 329.19095892183 | 6.4037399918334 | 0.79184989568564 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 40.13 | 21.67 | 30.9 | 18.070342629051 | 0.0013 | 1.5013 | 4.36 | 5.8613 | T | F | 8.13 | -31.87 | 49 | 328.24563164753 | 5.93151103036 | 0.79598447982831 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 00:02:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 40.17 | 21.69 | 30.93 | 154.95638310375 | 0.0013 | 1.5013 | 4.22 | 5.7213 | T | F | 8.17 | -31.83 | 49 | 407.43842295349 | 63.135184358366 | 0.79735174826887 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-12 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 39.59 | 23.41 | 31.5 | 158.76358987833 | 0.013 | 2.253 | 4.35 | 6.603 | T | T | 7.59 | -30.41 | 49 | 409.2713676824 | 64.977391567672 | 0.77699549699579 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-11 16:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 39.2 | 27.97 | 33.585 | 160.60972130326 | 0.0327 | 2.4027 | 4.33 | 6.7327 | T | T | 7.2 | -23.8 | 49 | 410.15380954804 | 65.874689042983 | 0.76267813798226 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-11 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 39.21 | 27.98 | 33.595 | 160.74915677711 | 0.0323 | 2.4023 | 4.33 | 6.7323 | T | T | 7.21 | -23.79 | 49 | 410.22029111132 | 65.942565889005 | 0.76305143612939 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
2020-02-11 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 32.77 | 29.8 | 31.285 | 168.36669712056 | 0.3388 | 3.5088 | 4.32 | 7.8288 | T | T | 0.77 | -32.23 | 49 | 413.81671679351 | 69.672953819796 | 0.47523141757013 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-11 04:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 32.89 | 31.09 | 31.99 | 32.237037440677 | 0.1794 | 2.9994 | 4.57 | 7.5694 | T | T | 0.89 | -42.11 | 49 | 337.77621420863 | 10.888904464014 | 0.48100790845436 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-11 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 141 | -144 | 32.9 | 32.09 | 32.495 | 31.886203992126 | 0.0975 | 2.9175 | 4.72 | 7.6375 | T | T | 0.9 | -36.1 | 49 | 337.54431018013 | 10.763006730785 | 0.48148947954965 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |