Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 10, 2020

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DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.20°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.60°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.523 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -6 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.31 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 22.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 23.44 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 170 in SWE DAY: 41 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 392.31 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 66.69 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.33	28.42	33.875	136.8356474827	0.0064	0.0064	10.3	10.3064	T	T	7.33	-24.67	41	392.31138708201	53.682182666204	0.7256067948024	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.27	26.29	32.78	136.85368137648	0.0149	0.0149	10.3	10.3149	T	T	7.27	-24.73	41	392.32080407688	53.690546318501	0.72309802788534	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	34.47	22.8	28.635	0	0.0104	0.0104	10.3	10.3104	T	T	2.47	-29.53	41	306.86611839879	0	0.49653869503087	88	2	1	1	1	5	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.99	25.06	32.525	136.85071935349	0.0101	0.0101	10.3	10.3101	T	T	7.99	-24.01	41	392.31925738809	53.689172589789	0.75244142571173	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-09 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.76	22.92	31.34	136.83975513339	0.0058	0.0158	10.3	10.3158	T	T	7.76	-12.24	41	392.31353206579	53.684087663399	0.74325161136995	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.98	24.89	32.435	136.82823424521	0.0039	0.0139	10.3	10.3139	T	T	7.98	-12.02	41	392.30751588944	53.678744680276	0.75204555023363	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-09 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.64	25.35	32.495	136.75990436921	0	0.01	10.3	10.31	T	T	7.64	-12.36	41	392.27183059608	53.647058039053	0.738387472204	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-09 08:01:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.37	25.42	32.895	136.71207656688	0.0011	0.0111	10.3	10.3111	T	T	8.37	-11.63	41	392.24684883035	53.624881230411	0.76723177735828	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-09 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.71	25.72	33.215	0	0.0013	0.0113	10.3	10.3113	T	T	8.71	-15.29	41	306.86611839879	0	0.7800387277002	88	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	H
2020-02-09 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.25	26.29	33.27	136.78222568234	0.002	0.012	10.3	10.312	T	T	8.25	-11.75	41	392.28348858812	53.657408667518	0.76261481970313	88	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-08 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.92	24.76	32.34	136.78249575217	0.0038	0.1138	10.3	10.4138	T	T	7.92	-4.08	41	392.28362963635	53.657533904381	0.7496632305737	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.16	23.4	31.78	136.74703861202	0.0034	0.1134	10.3	10.4134	T	T	8.16	-3.84	41	392.26511075855	53.641092247045	0.7591194216015	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-08 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.48	24.22	32.35	137.07317483627	0.0052	0.1152	10.3	10.4152	T	T	8.48	-3.52	41	392.43538528762	53.792364179468	0.77141985562543	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.04	24.85	32.445	138.43398811919	0.0024	0.4224	10.3	10.7224	T	T	8.04	-6.96	41	393.14434074292	54.424538995532	0.75441573551529	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-08 04:01:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.28	24.99	32.635	2.7120554787427	0.0021	0.8121	10.3	11.1121	T	T	8.28	-5.72	41	308.86405108175	0.83765644192292	0.7637737435135	88	4	1	1	3	4	2	36	WET	H
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.59	26.28	33.435	141.42798590023	0.0028	1.1728	10.3	11.4728	T	T	8.59	-6.41	41	394.69555147207	55.820996888473	0.77556534645833	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-07 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.97	26.06	33.515	140.19660997273	0.0041	1.4241	11.27	12.6941	T	T	8.97	5.97	41	394.05899500545	55.245735229026	0.78955383748313	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-07 16:01:15	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	41.1	25.85	33.475	140.4615755281	0.003	1.503	11.27	12.773	T	T	9.1	5.1	41	394.19613639788	55.369410385537	0.79421952223067	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.16	26.25	33.205	142.22937600588	0.002	1.412	11.27	12.682	T	T	8.16	5.16	41	395.1087597079	56.19607234771	0.7591194216015	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	36.29	25.7	30.995	142.09659286181	0.0008	1.3508	11.52	12.8708	T	T	4.29	1.29	41	395.04035293627	56.133888195171	0.58671455852602	88	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	42.17	26.24	34.205	6.7239348989833	0.0008	1.3408	11.93	13.2708	T	T	10.17	5.17	41	311.79442176418	2.0964853938085	0.83024394736779	88	4	1	1	4	4	2	48	WET	H
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	42.71	25.33	34.02	141.42215516523	0.0002	1.3402	12.43	13.7702	T	T	10.71	9.71	41	394.6925419783	55.818269914214	0.84678958405421	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	42.37	26.97	34.67	141.15998555542	0.0002	1.1902	14.64	15.8302	T	T	10.37	8.37	41	394.55717887068	55.695685670171	0.83650062348834	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	41.81	26.68	34.245	141.59995523953	0.0002	1.1402	14.78	15.9202	T	T	9.81	11.81	41	394.78429222386	55.901438108169	0.81860147182141	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	41.85	26.72	34.285	141.48475600908	0.0002	1.1202	14.72	15.8402	T	T	9.85	12.85	41	394.7248506438	55.847549184057	0.8199191708304	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.8	26.13	32.965	141.37471770197	0.1789	1.3889	15.1	16.4889	T	T	7.8	6.8	41	394.66805580149	55.796084974922	0.74486247985555	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.67	24.33	32	7.3167687303543	0.1795	1.4195	16	17.4195	T	T	7.67	8.67	41	312.22491475306	2.2844774931027	0.73960791997842	88	4	1	1	4	4	2	48	WET	L
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.71	24.38	32.045	141.63180327197	0.1795	1.3495	16.66	18.0095	T	T	7.71	11.71	41	394.80072240185	55.916338246849	0.74123061587392	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.13	25.58	32.355	143.64149100801	0.2063	1.4963	18.34	19.8363	T	T	7.13	13.13	41	395.83482278201	56.858304137299	0.71720097332756	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	37.67	25	31.335	144.69451546778	0.2789	1.5589	18.48	20.0389	T	T	5.67	10.67	41	396.37456076464	57.353225013593	0.65240215206827	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	37.7	25.04	31.37	145.2373120418	0.2789	1.6289	18.41	20.0389	T	T	5.7	9.7	41	396.65221310826	57.608701247273	0.65378834799401	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	36.2	24.99	30.595	146.81986299522	0.3236	1.6536	18.37	20.0236	T	T	4.2	7.2	41	397.45954100916	58.354955357107	0.58232221719993	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	36.38	25.62	31	13.309281540935	0.3128	1.9128	18.58	20.4928	T	T	4.38	9.38	41	316.54024513945	4.2129232415974	0.59109607540132	88	3	1	1	5	3	2	37.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	36.42	25.65	31.035	149.08991757787	0.3128	1.7928	18.93	20.7228	T	T	4.42	9.42	41	398.61194286473	59.429021707257	0.59303980360191	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 20:01:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.54	26.7	33.62	145.2376461136	0.0011	1.6711	18.85	20.5211	T	T	8.54	13.54	41	396.65238387546	57.608858559421	0.77368633418931	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.6	25.78	33.19	143.45770502352	0.0011	1.2111	18.95	20.1611	T	T	8.6	12.6	41	395.7404734231	56.7720201022	0.77594008550583	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	40.64	25.81	33.225	145.4467931251	0.0011	1.2111	18.73	19.9411	T	T	8.64	12.64	41	396.75926494076	57.707362728307	0.7774354886954	88	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.02	24.65	31.835	153.09121556152	0.0776	2.0176	18.89	20.9076	T	T	7.02	9.02	41	400.62710884274	61.332491079632	0.71252569979888	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.95	26.3	33.125	17.408812691424	0.0003	1.6403	18.68	20.3203	T	T	7.95	17.95	41	319.45478992775	5.5613286012305	0.75085590271015	88	4	1	1	5	2	2	30	WET	L
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	39.99	26.31	33.15	145.80251237561	0.0003	1.6403	18.6	20.2403	T	T	7.99	20.99	41	396.94091892784	57.874983244362	0.75244142571173	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	38.01	25.6	31.805	142.13273565623	0.0348	0.9448	17.42	18.3648	T	T	6.01	27.01	41	395.05897514435	56.150812882812	0.66798901925293	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	37.16	24.3	30.73	142.00266835458	0.0077	1.0977	17.18	18.2777	T	T	5.16	24.16	41	394.99195129229	56.089911062089	0.62853852256367	88	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	33.9	24.08	28.99	142.03099315527	0.0007	1.0907	17.53	18.6207	T	T	1.9	21.9	41	395.00654898546	56.103172455239	0.46811332639379	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	26.88	25.64	26.26	139.20351292481	0.0004	1.0404	18.65	19.6904	T	T	-5.12	16.88	41	393.54416384949	54.782730098907	0.16885045068628	88	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	133	-152	27.05	26.73	26.89	7.7239646143601	0.0002	1.2002	17.77	18.9702	T	T	-4.95	20.05	41	312.52022933406	2.413895192648	0.17426905507509	88	1	1	1	4	4	2	24	WET	L