Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 30, 2019

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DAY 91 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/31/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 296.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.98°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 165.09°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 1.000 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 264 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 252 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 45 in SWE DAY: 2 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 297.13 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 13.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 171 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 1 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-12-31 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	91	171	296.20004	33.98	165.09002	45.385407916667	0.0099999999999909	0.059999999999991	8.04	8.1	T	T	264.20004	252.20004	2	297.12551763777	13.485162820441	1	91	5	1	2	1	1	1	8	WET	L
2019-12-31 00:00:16	FORECAST	2020	92	172	30.89	30.89	30.89	44	0.0031	0.0531	8.04	8.0931	T	T	-1.11	-13.11	2	296.06524703317	13.026870869459	0.47070418883241	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2019-12-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	35.88	29.78	32.83	43.900506666667	0.0324	0.0824	8.04	8.1224	T	T	3.88	-8.12	2	295.98895980814	12.994065303317	0.67463219119125	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2019-12-29 20:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	34.61	30.31	32.46	43.935766666667	0.0325	0.0825	8.04	8.1225	T	T	2.61	-9.39	2	296.01599787087	13.005689812055	0.62506302311876	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2019-12-29 04:02:15	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.02	30.54	34.78	44.017302333333	0.0181	0.0681	8.04	8.1081	T	T	7.02	-4.98	2	296.07851175328	13.032577366247	0.78345858099666	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-29 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.35	30.85	35.1	44.138826333333	0.0066	0.0566	8.04	8.0966	T	T	7.35	-9.65	2	296.17166090484	13.072669505534	0.79353267934818	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-29 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.98	30.8	34.89	46.753344	0.0044	0.0444	8.04	8.0844	T	T	6.98	-11.02	2	298.1687624602	13.940386721356	0.78221848206831	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.98	30.8	34.89	46.617552	0.0044	0.0444	8.04	8.0844	T	T	6.98	-9.02	2	298.06536382484	13.895077597503	0.78221848206831	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-28 20:02:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39	30.54	34.77	46.58918	0.0034	0.0434	8.04	8.0834	T	T	7	-1	2	298.04375549917	13.885614172827	0.78283904195908	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.82	30.47	34.645	46.609024	0.0029	0.0529	8.04	8.0929	T	T	6.82	-1.18	2	298.05886900046	13.892232978655	0.77721738348003	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-28 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.3	30.21	34.255	46.566821333333	0.0011	0.0411	8.04	8.0811	T	T	6.3	-1.7	2	298.02672587563	13.878157296409	0.76052035046801	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.31	30.21	34.26	46.575841333333	0.0011	0.0411	8.04	8.0811	T	T	6.31	-1.69	2	298.03359613354	13.881165485518	0.76084775188898	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2019-12-28 12:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.31	29.54	34.425	46.344874666667	0.0067	0.1267	8.04	8.1667	T	T	7.31	-0.69	2	297.85762629665	13.804174359229	0.79232654354221	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.14	30.77	34.955	46.200718666667	0.0075	0.2175	8.04	8.2575	T	T	7.14	-0.86	2	297.7477437934	13.756159744633	0.78715431847575	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-28 00:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	40.11	30.78	35.445	46.443001333333	0.0002	0.1102	8.04	8.1502	T	T	8.11	1.11	2	297.93240005918	13.836874853192	0.8156533317499	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-28 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.63	30.48	35.055	46.381282666667	0.0004	0.1104	8.04	8.1504	T	T	7.63	0.63	2	297.88537182829	13.816305633033	0.80185900558241	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-27 16:02:15	FORECAST	2020	91	171	40.2	29.64	34.92	46.589560982912	0.002	0.092	8.19	8.282	T	T	8.2	6.2	2	298.0440456689	13.885741241285	0.81817178268968	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-27 04:02:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.05	27.57	33.31	46.456083124302	0.0052	0.3052	8.19	8.4952	T	T	7.05	0.049999999999997	2	297.94236714173	13.841235374187	0.78438597312871	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-27 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.05	27.57	33.31	46.765580057858	0.0052	0.2952	8.24	8.5352	T	T	7.05	-1.95	2	298.1780778385	13.944470770655	0.78438597312871	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-26 16:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.41	27.66	33.035	48.430007227319	0	0.31	8.37	8.68	T	T	6.41	-2.59	2	299.44252103548	14.502003457915	0.76410829585419	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-26 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.25	27.01	32.63	48.938116285335	0.0102	0.5402	8.4	8.9402	T	T	6.25	-3.75	2	299.8274609101	14.672991147555	0.75887968405389	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-26 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	38.25	27.01	32.63	49.12843270271	0.0102	0.6502	8.4	9.0502	T	T	6.25	-7.75	2	299.97151545734	14.737130409876	0.75887968405389	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-26 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.08	26.52	32.8	49.937939332747	0.0102	0.5402	8.47	9.0102	T	T	7.08	-5.92	2	300.58347081883	15.010519130177	0.78531106240405	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-26 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	39.08	26.52	32.8	49.458474160584	0.0102	0.5802	8.47	9.0502	T	T	7.08	-1.92	2	300.22116582962	14.848480772644	0.78531106240405	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-25 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	36.63	24.55	30.59	50.123478128387	0.0011	0.5411	8.54	9.0811	T	T	4.63	6.63	2	300.7235537348	15.073310468317	0.70258106148554	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	36.63	24.55	30.59	50.237959216979	0.0011	0.4911	8.48	8.9711	T	T	4.63	8.63	2	300.80995472327	15.112078237449	0.70258106148554	91	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2019-12-25 16:02:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	36.81	24.66	30.735	50.432165922125	0.0011	0.4511	8.48	8.9311	T	T	4.81	8.81	2	300.95646865595	15.177886562594	0.70912229360008	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	36.24	24.33	30.285	50.657497528854	0.0011	0.4611	8.51	8.9711	T	T	4.24	6.24	2	301.12637336757	15.254308514741	0.68818322086464	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2019-12-24 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	40.76	25.33	33.045	46.881667243741	0	0.26	8.08	8.34	T	T	8.76	23.76	2	298.26644125159	13.983228048732	0.8333559158812	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-24 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	40.77	26.04	33.405	46.780794440013	0	0.16	8.07	8.23	T	T	8.77	19.77	2	298.18966022771	13.94954919925	0.83361942337059	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2019-12-23 20:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	45.8	30.72	38.26	42.975967883622	0.0006	0.0206	7.86	7.8806	T	T	13.8	30.8	2	295.2791403869	12.689906853971	0.93317512734088	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	45.8	30.72	38.26	43.066843154099	0.0006	0.0206	7.88	7.9006	T	T	13.8	29.8	2	295.34898423707	12.71974837986	0.93317512734088	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2019-12-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	91	171	30.39	28.02	29.205	48.676442399495	0.4409	1.4109	7.9	9.3109	T	T	-1.61	7.39	2	299.62928064607	14.584887420571	0.44977533812616	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2019-12-23 04:02:13	FORECAST	2020	91	171	27.01	25.98	26.495	49.173010303799	0.3109	1.4709	7.95	9.4209	T	T	-4.99	6.01	2	300.00524712797	14.752161108217	0.31466049442346	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2019-12-23 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	91	171	27.02	25.98	26.5	48.592607979894	0.2378	1.3978	7.96	9.3578	T	T	-4.98	8.02	2	299.56576028761	14.556681553855	0.31503506272176	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2019-12-23 00:02:14	FORECAST	2020	91	171	27.03	27.03	27.03	46.142424340879	0.0499	1.2099	7.84	9.0499	T	T	-4.97	6.03	2	297.7032976825	13.736751889345	0.31540982117093	91	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L