Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 28, 2019

[ Wednesday, November 27, 2019 | Index | Today | Friday, November 29, 2019 ]

DAY 59 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/29/2019 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.05°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.61°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.33°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.103 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 127 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.17 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 14 in SWE DAY: 34 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 309.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 4.22 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 139 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2019-11-29 04:00:11	OBSERVATION	2020	59	139	24.04994	14.61002	19.32998	13.654828333333	0	0.03	5.17	5.2	T	F	-7.95006	127.04994	34	309.20913969961	4.2221977216959	0.1029032134386	87	1	4	1	1	3	2	9	WET	L
2019-11-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	60	140	16.65	16.65	16.65	15.014465457553	0.0023	0.0323	5.17	5.2023	T	F	-15.35	119.65	34	310.20440776228	4.6575533651274	0.018027788252289	87	1	3	1	1	3	2	7.5	WET	L
2019-11-28 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.91	20.86	27.885	15.003802059537	0.0079	0.0379	5.17	5.2079	T	F	2.91	137.91	34	310.19661541272	4.6541286171908	0.48026459816356	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.95	16.11	25.53	15.007573642512	0.0123	0.0423	5.17	5.2123	T	F	2.95	137.95	34	310.19937154638	4.6553399123433	0.48204824090049	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-28 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.41	19.47	24.94	14.770105713886	0.014	0.044	5.17	5.214	T	F	-1.59	133.41	34	310.02578723369	4.5791136514722	0.29011775397558	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.63	17.75	26.19	14.035253574132	0.014	0.044	5.17	5.214	T	F	2.63	134.63	34	309.4879612048	4.3437420136505	0.46779215363272	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34	21.72	27.86	14.01010642285	0.0095	0.0595	5.17	5.2295	T	F	2	151	34	309.46953865387	4.3357011711709	0.43986288351027	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.13	22.91	28.52	13.99550044242	0.0049	0.0549	5.17	5.2249	T	F	2.13	151.13	34	309.45883791881	4.3310313030034	0.44560626101153	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.01	22.88	28.445	14.028739834638	0.0058	0.0558	5.17	5.2258	T	F	2.01	151.01	34	309.48318941747	4.3416591475318	0.44030424860238	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	34.02	22.79	28.405	14.067400926661	0.0041	0.0541	5.17	5.2241	T	F	2.02	147.02	34	309.51151031939	4.3540225070793	0.44074568787401	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.78	22.97	28.375	14.045292212129	0.0076	0.0776	5.17	5.2476	T	F	1.78	146.78	34	309.49531508173	4.3469521386078	0.43017270867827	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-27 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.73	22.95	28.34	10.191251181947	0.0082	0.0482	5.17	5.2182	T	F	1.73	143.73	34	306.65818135066	3.1252305531436	0.42797603192948	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-26 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.69	23.74	28.715	10.152717053618	0.0067	0.0767	5.17	5.2467	T	F	1.69	156.69	34	306.62967417156	3.1131243221068	0.42622029266811	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-26 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.56	23.16	28.36	10.174033395523	0.0079	0.0779	5.17	5.2479	T	F	1.56	156.56	34	306.64544414199	3.1198209892856	0.42052440500836	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-26 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.34	22.82	28.08	10.261840006541	0.0071	0.0771	5.17	5.2471	T	F	1.34	156.34	34	306.71039505051	3.1474130023514	0.41092360907728	87	2	4	1	1	3	2	10.5	WET	L
2019-11-26 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.06	22.91	27.985	10.408919282801	0.0071	0.1171	5.17	5.2871	T	F	1.06	156.06	34	306.81915774252	3.193655847359	0.39878187155313	87	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-11-26 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.35	22.67	28.01	10.233800965389	0.003	0.173	5.17	5.343	T	F	1.35	156.35	34	306.68965603163	3.1386008979714	0.41135889945522	87	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	WET	L
2019-11-26 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	32.93	22.28	27.605	6.3895916385079	0.0023	0.1223	4.47	4.5923	T	F	0.93	153.93	34	303.83226579629	1.9413641050409	0.39317699090227	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-25 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	32.22	21.69	26.955	6.3275548780821	0.0045	0.1045	4.66	4.7645	T	F	0.22	167.22	34	303.78592490102	1.9222221110001	0.36298302211424	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-25 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	31.98	21.42	26.7	6.315442543202	0.0056	0.0956	4.66	4.7556	T	F	-0.02	166.98	34	303.77687624507	1.9184854078791	0.35295579412597	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-25 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	31.58	21.51	26.545	6.4869904694976	0.0056	0.0956	4.66	4.7556	T	F	-0.42	166.58	34	303.90500710607	1.9714288847297	0.33647129389879	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-25 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	26.86	21.43	24.145	6.896186620658	0.003	0.133	4.67	4.803	T	F	-5.14	159.86	34	304.21041447841	2.0978917901908	0.17095519751044	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-25 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.8	18.44	24.62	7.0861660445654	0.0019	0.1919	4.76	4.9519	T	F	-1.2	164.8	34	304.35209953555	2.156689513321	0.30523687555916	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-25 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.8	20.71	25.755	7.1580118643747	0.0002	0.1602	4.22	4.3802	T	F	-1.2	158.8	34	304.40566372947	2.1789393525584	0.30523687555916	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-24 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.61	19.62	25.115	7.0468616534579	0	0.1	4.35	4.45	T	F	-1.39	170.61	34	304.32279226007	2.1445206150508	0.29782741901854	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-24 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.44	17.88	24.16	7.0212384599166	0	0.09	4.4	4.49	T	F	-1.56	170.44	34	304.30368477884	2.1365887350635	0.29126822922979	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-24 12:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.48	17.86	24.17	6.4756886867926	0	0.09	4.41	4.5	T	F	-1.52	171.48	34	303.89656740942	1.9679395635283	0.29280549686558	87	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-24 08:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	28.71	18.39	23.55	7.0408294648313	0.0004	0.1104	4.63	4.7404	T	F	-3.29	167.71	34	304.31829410636	2.1426532118312	0.2286506724561	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-24 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.34	18.15	23.745	6.2741580469989	0.0005	0.0805	4.69	4.7705	T	F	-2.66	169.34	34	303.74603210644	1.9057506115846	0.25054143934459	87	2	4	1	1	4	2	14	WET	L
2019-11-24 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.36	18.17	23.765	5.580591070573	0.0005	0.1005	5.1	5.2005	T	F	-2.64	166.36	34	303.22737607834	1.692187987296	0.25125408885292	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-23 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	30.56	17.33	23.945	7.0051365791453	0.001	0.141	5.14	5.281	T	F	-1.44	180.56	34	304.29167680301	2.1316047559022	0.29589126767775	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-23 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.99	17.59	23.79	6.9649706001829	0.001	0.141	5.26	5.401	T	F	-2.01	179.99	34	304.261720888	2.119173940746	0.27423891977631	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-23 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.8	18.03	23.915	5.7212079149712	0.001	0.191	5.18	5.371	T	F	-2.2	178.8	34	303.33260455881	1.7354288980707	0.26719919823287	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-23 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.09	16.86	22.975	5.4186843498701	0	0.21	5.39	5.6	T	F	-2.91	180.09	34	303.1061690826	1.642436654757	0.24172428652429	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-23 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.81	16.89	23.35	5.4142018690843	0	0.28	5.47	5.75	T	F	-2.19	177.81	34	303.10281268798	1.64105981498	0.26756742649746	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-23 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.82	16.91	23.365	4.614541040793	0	0.22	5.61	5.83	T	F	-2.18	170.82	34	302.5034302617	1.3959144939233	0.26793591009748	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-22 20:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	33.31	19.94	26.625	5.4729910699866	0	0.17	5.57	5.74	T	F	1.31	189.31	34	303.14682986479	1.6591198927447	0.4096183978596	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-22 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	28.66	17.32	22.99	9.8611678642371	0	0.24	5.66	5.9	T	F	-3.34	168.66	34	306.41389843313	3.0215988883844	0.22696046955969	87	1	4	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-11-22 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	28.67	17.35	23.01	9.616934939844	0	0.24	5.89	6.13	T	F	-3.33	167.67	34	306.2330184567	2.9450230149301	0.22729794634995	87	1	4	1	2	3	2	18	WET	L
2019-11-22 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	27.85	18.25	23.05	7.5098997758512	0.0011	0.1211	5.33	5.4511	T	F	-4.15	171.85	34	304.66787038938	2.2880251715463	0.20057709645803	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-22 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	28.31	18.9	23.605	7.8781839201457	0.0011	0.1411	5.33	5.4711	T	F	-3.69	166.31	34	304.9420437024	2.4023895052726	0.21532787661105	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-22 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	59	139	28.31	18.91	23.61	5.5420385205133	0.0011	0.1411	5.2	5.3411	T	F	-3.69	149.31	34	303.19851929753	1.6803378733095	0.21532787661105	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-21 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	27.71	15.88	21.795	5.9479242878532	0	0.29	5.18	5.47	T	F	-4.29	169.71	34	303.50218518552	1.8052080186815	0.19621082449116	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-21 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	29.67	17.91	23.79	6.7695696804244	0	0.27	5.42	5.69	T	F	-2.33	173.67	34	304.11594665365	2.0587340918001	0.26243559373795	87	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	L
2019-11-21 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	26.32	17.93	22.125	6.1989099354532	0	0.27	5.32	5.59	T	F	-5.68	170.32	34	303.68980502557	1.8825457496688	0.15604057157124	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-21 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	59	139	20.98	18.28	19.63	4.4746914630236	0.0269	0.1969	5.04	5.2369	T	F	-11.02	167.98	34	302.39848146565	1.3531399034457	0.053748813249356	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L
2019-11-21 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	59	139	20.92	19.91	20.415	5.161032625134	0	0.12	5.31	5.43	T	F	-11.08	162.92	34	302.91318242784	1.5633448170932	0.05301695062279	87	1	4	1	2	4	2	24	WET	L