MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 13, 2026

[ Friday, June 12, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 14, 2026 ]

DAY 256 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/14/2026 04:00:40 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.946
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 251

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.97 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 163
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 414.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-14 04:00:40OBSERVATION2026256-2967.4649.7699658.614980002.972.97FF35.46251.46163414.83529089365 00.9459020212187716 51215220DRYL
2026-06-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026256-2959.9940.40650.1980002.972.97FF27.99243.99163414.8352908936500.808780529875291641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-13 12:00:01FORECAST2026256-2959.82840.22650.0270002.972.97FF27.828243.828163414.8352908936500.804425460480521641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-13 08:00:02FORECAST2026256-2961.740.0150.8550002.972.97FF29.7245.7163414.8352908936500.851067855498651651215220DRYL
2026-06-13 04:00:47FORECAST2026256-2961.6140.1950.90002.972.97FF29.61245.61163414.8352908936500.849010960151751651215220DRYL
2026-06-13 00:00:18FORECAST2026256-2961.39439.81250.6030002.972.97FF29.394241.394163414.8352908936500.843997824981041641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-12 20:00:02FORECAST2026256-2961.30439.59650.450002.972.97FF29.304240.304163414.8352908936500.841877091060691641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-12 16:00:02FORECAST2026256-2961.12441.93651.530002.972.97FF29.124240.124163414.8352908936500.837579269094811641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-12 12:00:15FORECAST2026256-2961.1641.73851.4490002.972.97FF29.16240.16163414.8352908936500.838444844173021641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-12 08:00:02FORECAST2026256-2961.44841.55851.5030002.972.97FF29.448242.448163414.8352908936500.845261249133911641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-12 04:00:39FORECAST2026256-2961.7941.55851.6740002.972.97FF29.79242.79163414.8352908936500.853105995045261651215220DRYL
2026-06-12 00:00:12FORECAST2026256-2962.2441.34251.7910002.972.97FF30.24299.24163414.8352908936500.863015949355991651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 20:00:12FORECAST2026256-2963.03240.5551.79100.0007874020.0007874022.972.970787402FF31.032298.032163414.8352908936500.879329235887811651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 16:00:01FORECAST2026256-2963.3241.10852.21400.0007874020.0007874022.972.970787402FF31.32299.32163414.8352908936500.884908809148081651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026256-2962.92441.8152.3670002.972.97FF30.924297.924163414.8352908936500.877188733874361651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 08:00:11FORECAST2026256-2962.88842.60252.7450002.972.97FF30.888297.888163414.8352908936500.876469369402171651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 04:00:11FORECAST2026256-2962.34843.08852.718NAN002.972.97FF30.348297.348163NANNAN0.865324914808471651215220DRYL
2026-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026256-2962.0642.18852.1240.58940254809319003.13.1FF30.06342.06163415.109148815820.244666390048840.85910803489391651214216DRYL
2026-06-10 20:00:07FORECAST2026256-2964.02242.3553.1860.79007440.0023622060.0023622063.13.102362206FF32.022345.022163415.202294760950.328040703911880.897736455872831651214216DRYL
2026-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026256-2963.28443.35853.3210.72719680.0023622060.0023622063.13.102362206FF31.284343.284163415.173113943990.30191255990610.88422153892731651214216DRYL
2026-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026256-2962.79843.50253.150.477576740053670.0047244120.0047244123.13.104724412FF30.798343.798163415.057221975610.198221675006840.874658102411381651214216DRYL
2026-06-10 08:00:09FORECAST2026256-2960.94441.03650.990.779230785118630.0019685050.0019685053.123.121968505FF28.944338.944163415.197262688620.323534488983960.833206330145271641214214DRYL
2026-06-10 04:00:31FORECAST2026256-2960.69240.85650.7740.38592991061707003.083.08FF28.692338.692163415.014654340630.160166568454450.826958156742351641214214DRYL
2026-06-10 00:00:10FORECAST2026256-2960.7141.03650.8731.6419062712959003.73.7FF28.71336.71163415.597161858690.682371586388570.827409326550661641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 20:00:11FORECAST2026256-2958.60440.69449.6492.26949103719003.733.73FF26.604330.604163415.887532991280.943853028602790.769620461235791641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2959.84640.53250.1892.4336699266321003.773.77TF27.846330.846163415.963418983341.01231766335880.80491230388991641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 12:00:12FORECAST2026256-2959.37841.10850.2432.0941299088567003.763.76TF27.378331.378163415.806443437850.870752709498530.792016493569341641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 08:00:17FORECAST2026256-2959.3640.20849.7842.1215996001329003.823.82TF27.36332.36163415.819148211230.882201738572550.791510674061341641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 04:00:51FORECAST2026256-2959.12640.74849.9372.2984660392446003.983.98TF27.126334.126163415.900927979840.955934158651970.784869406757961641214214DRYL
2026-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026256-2962.97844.29453.6360.62880870235384004.194.19TF30.978338.978163415.12744373480.261035749206350.878262280355991651214216WETMH
2026-06-08 20:00:12FORECAST2026256-2963.66247.24655.4541.3753847635063004.194.19TF31.662343.662163415.473707502960.571436206937050.891293937904151651214216WETMH
2026-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2963.57245.66254.6171.5486854413926004.124.12TF31.572342.572163415.553990916330.643562415844690.889638802073851651214216WETMH
2026-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026256-2964.86845.44655.1570.56228276525073003.963.96TF32.868343.868163415.096556971740.233401639900130.911777441992641651214216DRYL
2026-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026256-2963.82444.70854.2660.28904520936548004.024.02TF31.824345.824163414.969643070630.119944987361670.894228194080581651214216WETMH
2026-06-08 04:00:41FORECAST2026256-2964.1344.43854.2840004.094.09TF32.13343.13163414.8352908936500.899614117539321651215220WETMH
2026-06-08 00:00:20FORECAST2026256-2961.4344.43852.9340003.493.49FF29.43335.43163414.8352908936500.844840859038861641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026256-2959.41441.95450.6840003.313.31FF27.414331.414163414.8352908936500.793025960736091641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2959.9942.00850.9990003.183.18FF27.99329.99163414.8352908936500.808780529875291641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2026256-2959.59440.62250.1080002.992.99FF27.594330.594163414.8352908936500.798029726086141641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026256-2965.9343.82654.878000.013.173.18FF33.93343.93163414.8352908936500.927310161595731651215220DRYL
2026-06-07 04:00:09FORECAST2026256-2964.41842.47653.447000.013.023.03FF32.418346.418163414.8352908936500.904498366464831651215220DRYL
2026-06-07 00:00:03FORECAST2026256-2967.58646.16656.8760002.512.51FF35.586347.586163414.8352908936500.947248230102131651215220DRYL
2026-06-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026256-2967.40645.39256.3990002.682.68FF35.406345.406163414.8352908936500.945316841883821651215220DRYL
2026-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2967.58645.44656.5160002.52.5FF35.586345.586163414.8352908936500.947248230102131651215220DRYL
2026-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026256-2965.01245.78855.4000.042.22.24FF33.012340.012163414.8352908936500.914017406670631651215220DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:04FORECAST2026256-2963.48245.80654.644000.042.152.19FF31.482339.482163414.8352908936500.887965731266321651215220DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:09FORECAST2026256-2958.96441.66650.315000.042.22.24FF26.964329.964163414.8352908936500.780200664884131641215217.5DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:04FORECAST2026256-2964.20246.27455.2380.4715315509377200.042.342.38FF32.202340.202163415.054414443360.195711251766030.90085188252331651214216DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026256-2968.19848.3858.2890001.861.86FF36.198353.198163414.8352908936500.953414160161971651215140DRYM
2026-06-05 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2969.65649.22659.4410001.911.91FF37.656354.656163414.8352908936500.965795457282821651215140DRYM
2026-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026256-2970.80851.22461.0160001.931.93FF38.808362.808163414.8352908936500.973546946174671651215140DRYM
2026-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026256-2970.93450.73860.8360002.062.06FF38.934356.934163414.8352908936500.974298014815361651215140DRYM
2026-06-05 04:00:07FORECAST2026256-2964.23847.33655.7871.1929969486614001.921.92FF32.238341.238163415.389176198810.495558019712160.90146657681171651214216DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026256-2957.30839.07448.1913.97758117127860.0110236280.0610236281.411.471023628FF25.308320.308163416.675492450871.65736059330580.729275803701281641214214DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:04FORECAST2026256-2957.30839.07448.1915.68827400736740.0110236280.0610236281.331.391023628FF25.308321.308163417.461233574882.37463388402750.729275803701281641214214DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026256-2954.93240.71247.8225.74033262931680.0110236280.0610236281.41.461023628FF22.932318.932163417.485091217072.39650329136660.64723567289891631214212DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026256-2964.52641.12652.8263.833948160592100.011.481.49FF32.526335.526163416.609364642041.59725870725480.906284279548091651214216DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026256-2964.52641.14452.8353.309981839931300.011.391.4FF32.526338.526163416.367928941941.37817028352760.906284279548091651214216DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:18FORECAST2026256-2956.06640.83848.4523.876065168942200.011.591.6FF24.066326.066163416.628757569491.61488021559480.687562614216921631214212DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:19FORECAST2026256-2943.9741.88242.9265.607036635264300.131.851.98FF11.97296.97163417.423997470442.34051164625520.243229821192161611224216DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2026256-2942.49439.52441.0099.232237737908100.182.42.58FF10.494296.494163419.078194829513.86902952543940.200292837925561611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026256-2943.19639.45241.3249.029633668070700.122.332.45FF11.196300.196163418.986146882173.78329141834240.220120291761931611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026256-2943.41237.83240.6224.2493551855287001.211.21FF11.412330.412163416.800549646261.77113357697060.22643988227812161121428DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026256-2943.41237.83240.6224.6552722965282001.281.28FF11.412328.412163416.987172291861.9411888311780.22643988227812161121428DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:09FORECAST2026256-2953.29452.8853.0873.7582167624032001.441.44FF21.294352.294163416.574488628841.56557722595440.586057723755451631214212DRYL