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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 12, 2026

[ Thursday, June 11, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 13, 2026 ]

DAY 255 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/13/2026 04:00:38 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.710
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 226

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 162
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 414.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-13 04:00:38OBSERVATION2026255-3059.0799238.4299648.754940003.033.03FF27.07992226.07992162414.13832159606 00.7103483230799216 41215217.5DRYL
2026-06-13 00:00:03FORECAST2026255-3054.9536.39245.6710003.033.03FF22.95221.95162414.1383215960600.564213426228871631215215DRYL
2026-06-12 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3054.44636.39245.4190003.033.03FF22.446221.446162414.1383215960600.545275259150761631215215DRYL
2026-06-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026255-3055.72436.9546.3370003.033.03FF23.724222.724162414.1383215960600.592998005017021631215215DRYL
2026-06-12 04:00:38FORECAST2026255-3056.26436.39246.3280003.033.03FF24.264223.264162414.1383215960600.612796448216991631215215DRYL
2026-06-12 00:00:12FORECAST2026255-3056.62436.53646.580003.033.03FF24.624278.624162414.1383215960600.625837704945671631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026255-3056.4836.78846.6340003.033.03FF24.48277.48162414.1383215960600.620637524049211631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 16:00:01FORECAST2026255-3056.5736.73446.6520003.033.03FF24.57277.57162414.1383215960600.623890260743071631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026255-3055.9437.16646.5530003.033.03FF23.94276.94162414.1383215960600.60094901241931631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 08:00:11FORECAST2026255-3056.08437.14846.6160003.033.03FF24.084277.084162414.1383215960600.606226734120221631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 04:00:10FORECAST2026255-3056.26437.23846.751NAN003.033.03FF24.264277.264162NANNAN0.612796448216991631215215DRYL
2026-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026255-3055.77837.14846.4633.285070548093200.133.033.16FF23.778321.778162415.665264268591.36548971751410.594989490715351631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 20:00:06FORECAST2026255-3056.6636.93246.7963.561608800.133.033.16FF24.66322.66162415.793222307161.48089279954950.62713422349711631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026255-3056.4837.43646.9583.510539200.133.033.16FF24.48322.48162415.769598469441.45957547359520.620637524049211631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026255-3056.337.6746.9853.216245540053700.133.033.16FF24.3323.3162415.633404023671.33677908198850.614106590351931631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 08:00:09FORECAST2026255-3055.09438.28246.6883.30132118511860.0023622060.1523622063.033.182362206FF23.094320.094162415.672786146931.37226937498420.569599334051461631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 04:00:31FORECAST2026255-3055.09438.13846.6162.87564671061710.0031496080.1131496083.033.143149608FF23.094320.094162415.475653132051.19476119527070.569599334051461631224224DRYL
2026-06-10 00:00:10FORECAST2026255-3054.9538.2146.584.15494387129590.0031496080.1531496083.613.763149608TF22.95317.95162416.067463463131.72873695736180.564213426228871631224224DRYL
2026-06-09 20:00:11FORECAST2026255-3053.09637.20245.1494.603342237190.0023622060.1823622063.613.792362206TF21.096314.096162416.274440441531.91625371394710.494157880691581621224220DRYL
2026-06-09 16:00:03FORECAST2026255-3053.0637.09445.0774.821247526632100.223.613.83TF21.06313.06162416.374938639242.0074466430660.492792324988741621224220DRYL
2026-06-09 12:00:12FORECAST2026255-3053.38437.445.3924.500993908856700.213.613.82TF21.384314.384162416.227218059811.87343617318760.50508344664441631224224DRYL
2026-06-09 08:00:17FORECAST2026255-3053.3337.52645.4284.462043600132900.273.613.88TF21.33315.33162416.209243594891.85714379169880.503034946376641631224224DRYL
2026-06-09 04:00:50FORECAST2026255-3053.8737.61645.7434.644617239244600.273.774.04TF21.87316.87162416.29348079561.93352387748840.523507441481811631224224WETMH
2026-06-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026255-3058.02839.27248.653.441277502353800.214.044.25TF26.028318.028162415.737554412411.4306682928830.67521688377561631224224WETMH
2026-06-08 20:00:12FORECAST2026255-3060.24241.48650.8644.420175963506300.214.044.25TF28.242322.242162416.189920882561.83963268453870.746950310031351641224228WETMH
2026-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026255-3059.3641.46850.4144.529123041392600.223.964.18TF27.36321.36162416.240197752441.88520307039440.719392952445561641224228WETMH
2026-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3059.25241.86450.5583.609337165250700.243.784.02TF27.252321.252162415.815297782381.50081760816570.715921509323891641224228WETMH
2026-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026255-3059.75640.7350.2433.237207609365500.163.924.08TF27.756323.756162415.643108305271.34552303298610.731943265565771641224228WETMH
2026-06-08 04:00:41FORECAST2026255-3058.31639.90249.1092.94007890700400.1544.15TF26.316321.316162415.505505852581.22161897350120.685009386971441631224224WETMH
2026-06-08 00:00:19FORECAST2026255-3055.8538.22847.039000.143.413.55FF23.85315.85162414.1383215960600.597640975407711631225230DRYL
2026-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026255-3053.11437.23845.1760.188955188925800.133.243.37FF21.114314.114162414.226496150410.0782702458381740.494840685216521621224220DRYL
2026-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026255-3053.34836.66245.0050.2647772905428500.13.143.24FF21.348312.348162414.261866082510.109687134476550.503717791358531631224224DRYL
2026-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3053.22236.82445.023000.092.963.05FF21.222313.222162414.1383215960600.498937759777231621215212.5DRYL
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026255-3055.27438.71446.99400.0051181130.1351181133.13.235118113FF23.274320.274162414.1383215960600.576313442025281631225230DRYL
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026255-3055.70639.27247.48900.0051181130.1451181132.943.085118113FF23.706323.706162414.1383215960600.592333639139991631225230DRYL
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026255-3058.98240.96449.9731.195037039618400.12.472.57FF26.982321.982162414.695265007950.495576201838850.707154252052171641224228DRYL
2026-06-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026255-3058.51439.54249.0280.05495780215654100.132.612.74FF26.514319.514162414.163971616170.0227615416124490.691667675319821631224224DRYL
2026-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026255-3057.93840.31649.127000.192.372.56FF25.938319.938162414.1383215960600.672131323676761631225230DRYL
2026-06-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3057.70436.06846.8861.17461233126530.0090551230.1490551232.152.299055123FF25.704316.704162414.685760327070.48709500768030.664054159373541631224224DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:04FORECAST2026255-3058.56836.87847.7230.944129845086710.0090551230.1490551232.12.249055123FF26.568317.568162414.578470634480.391415907256410.693472814621271631224224DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:09FORECAST2026255-3057.3836.5946.9851.50445441633410.0090551230.0990551232.22.299055123FF25.38313.38162414.839192733090.624106655575760.652744910547561631224224DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:04FORECAST2026255-3060.78236.71648.7493.51779875093770.0090551230.1390551232.32.439055123FF28.782317.782162415.772956788191.46260558806320.763092184795431641224228DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026255-3064.88638.98451.9352.700031721430700.181.741.92FF32.886326.886162415.394262398491.12157768537620.865804803551281651224232DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026255-3065.55239.3852.4662.855030225265700.191.781.97FF33.552326.552162415.466100071781.18616827327820.87903652943151651224232DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026255-3066.70443.28654.9951.571374724137800.261.731.99FF34.704333.704162414.870306322050.65191671314980.899709150491391651224232DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026255-3065.78640.78453.2852.952531010587700.231.892.12FF33.786327.786162415.511274596991.22680992349640.88346061316421651224232DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2026255-3060.87238.82249.8474.376532148661400.231.751.98FF28.872318.872162416.169776242551.82138040502670.765726456549351641224228DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026255-3052.8835.8744.3756.20584917127860.0098425250.1798425251.341.519842525FF20.88304.88162417.012220699722.58791494424240.485966133277451621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:04FORECAST2026255-3052.8835.85244.3667.91654200736740.0098425250.1798425251.261.439842525FF20.88305.88162417.796501859863.30750355750470.485966133277451621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026255-3055.0436.53645.7887.82316542931680.0098425250.1798425251.331.509842525FF23.04306.04162417.753780474993.26815693337840.567581079631061631223218DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3056.60639.0247.8136.297195360592100.191.361.55FF24.606312.606162417.054185290942.62627168072960.625188910690461631223218DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026255-3056.78639.07447.935.779821839931300.191.271.46FF24.786315.786162416.816374385022.40912438391150.631660625857961631224224DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:18FORECAST2026255-3055.6737.95846.8145.976117968942200.251.411.66FF23.67311.67162416.906638758022.49148325525310.591004112446781631224224DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:19FORECAST2026255-3052.17836.8644.5196.07542063526430.0224409570.3524409571.692.042440957FF20.178295.178162416.95228473452.53316051459650.459401654034791621223215DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2026255-3050.07237.02243.5479.65073293790810.023622060.473622062.172.64362206FF18.072296.072162418.588085165794.03968182092540.38124575001531621223215DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026255-3052.41236.15844.2859.45875606807070.0200787510.2700787512.242.510078751FF20.412299.412162418.500627544493.95849535027780.468242245555541621223215DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026255-3062.81640.29851.5574.5945423855287001.271.27FF30.816328.816162416.270380770091.91257190828830.818530036099821641214214DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026255-3062.81640.29851.5575.0004594965282001.341.34FF30.816326.816162416.457549753722.08247910956690.818530036099821641214214DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:09FORECAST2026255-3076.4647.31861.8894.1040927624032001.51.5FF44.46341.46162416.043976125591.70748307125850.986495398762081651214132DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:04FORECAST2026255-3056.08445.42850.7565.426442822639400.051.141.19FF24.084316.084162416.653763887442.26094782657270.606226734120221631214212DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:03FORECAST2026255-3048.25442.04445.1498.993505477061200.170.871.04FF16.254310.254162418.28849944273.76187991072960.317359151751111621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:04FORECAST2026255-3054.53645.51850.0277.699012941861800.010.910.92FF22.536328.536162417.696962889633.21585432306360.5486659041666163121329DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2026255-3051.5344.38447.9574.497331235037800.040.940.98FF19.53342.53162416.225527915271.87190406751340.43503779498951621214210DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026255-3049.06441.75645.413.995462607525300.040.880.92FF17.064349.064162415.993791380391.6620876384230.345290314376311621214210DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:09FORECAST2026255-3039.09237.52638.3095.73838543354760.1003937550.3903937550.681.070393755FF7.092321.092162416.797314607092.39174363888310.0889954754542611611224216DRYL