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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 11, 2026

[ Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, June 12, 2026 ]

DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2026 04:00:30 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 214

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 161
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 413.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-12 04:00:30OBSERVATION2026254-310000.592.443.03FF-32214161413.43869877665 07.0074637537054E-716 11235230DRYL
2026-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026254-3154.8631.98243.421000.592.443.03FF22.86268.86161413.4386987766500.607052668481631235245DRYM
2026-06-11 12:00:01FORECAST2026254-3154.12231.24442.683000.592.443.03FF22.122268.122161413.4386987766500.580533058650631631235245DRYM
2026-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2026254-3154.08631.1942.638000.592.443.03FF22.086268.086161413.4386987766500.579228957706911631235245DRYM
2026-06-11 04:00:10FORECAST2026254-3154.3231.87443.097NAN00.592.443.03FF22.32268.32161NANNAN0.58768944376241631235245DRYM
2026-06-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026254-3154.1432.43243.2865.210266548093200.722.443.16FF22.14313.14161415.863791520122.16676120152050.581184778555811631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026254-3153.99632.39643.1965.488674400.722.443.16FF21.996312.996161415.992474002282.2832472426490.575964930002781631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 16:00:01FORECAST2026254-3154.4132.97243.6915.44331200.722.443.16FF22.41313.41161415.971513319392.26426273010960.59093288564531631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026254-3154.55433.06243.8085.172929540053700.722.443.16FF22.554313.554161415.846527115542.15114478424470.596109381380891631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 08:00:09FORECAST2026254-3154.33833.65643.9975.182532385118600.742.443.18FF22.338312.338161415.850967568872.15516110680860.588338618914971631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 04:00:31FORECAST2026254-3154.3233.60243.9614.751347510617100.72.443.14FF22.32312.32161415.651476501981.9749046081620.58768944376241631234236DRYL
2026-06-10 00:00:10FORECAST2026254-3154.78834.0744.4296.033498271295901.322.443.76TF22.788309.788161416.24403311062.51140765421010.604485028268851631243236DRYL
2026-06-09 20:00:10FORECAST2026254-3154.4134.57444.4926.3095982371901.352.443.79TF22.41308.41161416.371382674552.62713614213970.59093288564531631243236DRYL
2026-06-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026254-3153.36634.48443.9256.515301926632101.392.443.83TF21.366307.366161416.46620431092.7134030633240.55298296624971631243236DRYL
2026-06-09 12:00:12FORECAST2026254-3153.67234.32243.9976.234998708856701.382.443.82TF21.672307.672161416.336982864522.59586055060960.564172796778481631243236DRYL
2026-06-09 08:00:17FORECAST2026254-3153.81634.10643.9616.209234000132901.442.443.88TF21.816308.816161416.325100563362.58505996952680.569421438018311631243236DRYL
2026-06-09 04:00:50FORECAST2026254-3153.76234.2544.0066.405091639244601.62.444.04TF21.762309.762161416.415407689642.66717884624550.567454582582211631253245WETMH
2026-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026254-3155.72434.2544.9875.6295951023538022.254.25TF23.724306.724161416.057574072952.34223568129830.637472119650891631254260WETMH
2026-06-08 20:00:11FORECAST2026254-3156.51634.6145.5636.916288763506301.842.414.25TF24.516308.516161416.65090174932.88167795007350.664619359406481631253245WETMH
2026-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3156.87634.35845.6176.966392641392601.772.414.18TF24.876308.876161416.673966739622.90271445575480.676690628893731631253245WETMH
2026-06-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026254-3156.76834.48445.6266.049460365250701.612.414.02TF24.768308.768161416.251397969712.5180963339980.6730879904611631253245WETMH
2026-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026254-3156.08434.73645.415.642792409365501.572.514.08TF24.084311.084161416.06366953982.34776091629190.649907410210451631254260WETMH
2026-06-08 04:00:41FORECAST2026254-3156.04834.1645.1045.20849410700401.712.444.15TF24.048310.048161415.862971991192.16601983893730.648670826078161631254260WETMH
2026-06-08 00:00:19FORECAST2026254-3152.98833.04443.0161.407274371593801.631.923.55TF20.988306.988161414.096874419920.582747918728250.539102742469111631254260DRYH
2026-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026254-3151.54833.5342.5391.926502388925801.441.933.37TF19.548307.548161414.339121402890.798225307208090.485933732543691621244240DRYM
2026-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3150.30633.9842.1431.991894090542901.271.973.24TF18.306306.306161414.369607400870.825380372282350.440241092462831621244240DRYM
2026-06-07 12:00:03FORECAST2026254-3151.40434.30442.8541.524276188760201.111.943.05FF19.404307.404161414.151489765320.631281254388850.480614976622681621244240DRYM
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026254-3154.39235.11444.7531.360355808304801.2323.23TF22.392312.392161414.074968717070.56328928876790.590284687468351631244248DRYM
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026254-3154.64435.34844.9961.53415478975401.072.013.08FF22.644314.644161414.156100260150.635379564919950.599336227986231631244248DRYM
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026254-3155.70633.99844.8523.589896239618401.141.432.57FF23.706309.706161415.113033806991.49021271908030.636846403352861631244248DRYM
2026-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026254-3154.10433.40443.7542.346989002156501.241.52.74FF22.104308.104161414.535066372220.972909241783830.579881117788091631244248DRYM
2026-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3154.08633.24243.6642.1161837056401.181.382.56FF22.086309.086161414.427537997680.87700480307920.579228957706911631244248DRYM
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026254-3150.61234.05242.3323.01156552463160.0255905650.9355905651.352.285590565FF18.612305.612161414.844329752751.24933088157230.451448702291561621234230DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026254-3148.52435.02441.7742.91882104508670.0251968640.9551968641.282.235196864FF16.524305.524161414.801202069861.21073047812880.37619473669231621234230DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:09FORECAST2026254-3147.6635.72641.6933.38428801633410.0279527710.8879527711.42.287952771FF15.66302.66161415.017549317481.40453891872350.346216566192221621234230DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:04FORECAST2026254-3146.9434.66440.8025.64894595093770.0279527710.9379527711.492.427952771FF14.94303.94161416.066511618642.35033723612890.321941256998791621234230DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026254-3150.70233.38642.0445.454149321430700.831.091.92FF18.702308.702161415.976521158882.26879806060980.454752847284791621234230DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026254-3150.84633.72842.2875.691115025265700.811.161.97FF18.846307.846161416.085986660352.36799321048520.460045902323931621234230DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026254-3154.62635.36644.9964.70511952413780.0007874020.8607874021.131.990787402FF22.626313.626161415.630075790581.95558918442120.598691392993921631234236DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026254-3152.30434.55643.435.95461661058770.0015748040.8215748041.32.121574804FF20.304309.304161416.207632980332.47835688479810.51387625996131631234236DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2026254-3150.84633.83642.3416.86123054866140.0015748040.7615748041.221.981574804FF18.846304.846161416.625552677292.85856396938230.460045902323931621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026254-3147.73233.36840.557.90974357127860.0397638010.4797638011.031.509763801FF15.732298.732161417.107684671253.29921482735930.348681294309991621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:04FORECAST2026254-3147.53433.47640.5059.63824680736740.0397638010.4797638010.951.429763801FF15.534299.534161417.899695037944.02782040149930.341918970131971621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3147.76833.69240.739.74373662931680.0397638010.5397638010.961.499763801FF15.768297.768161417.947918605354.07237444366160.349916064163931621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026254-3149.76635.34842.5578.43277056059210.0137795350.4437795351.111.553779535FF17.766302.766161417.34770572473.51939744636590.420584688573531621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026254-3149.98235.40242.6927.93015703993130.0133858340.4333858341.031.463385834FF17.982305.982161417.117058547813.30780377831840.428426362742351621223215DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:17FORECAST2026254-3148.68634.1641.4238.00561796894220.0066929170.6966929170.961.656692917FF16.686302.686161417.151706030983.33955719357650.381906239231421621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:18FORECAST2026254-3144.54633.83639.1917.77951183526430.1059055690.6559055691.362.015905569FF12.546289.546161417.047870740323.24442884629610.246942281326831611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2026254-3143.73633.65638.69611.2080113379080.1641733170.7941733171.832.624173317FF11.736292.736161418.615963694454.69185246731670.223860281343221611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026254-3144.07833.33238.70511.1339176680710.0988189510.6388189511.852.488818951FF12.078294.078161418.58221963634.66045997074880.233453553152331611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026254-3153.18635.00644.0967.15343438552870.0015748040.1615748041.111.271574804FF21.186313.186161416.760044247592.98126563103520.546380366858971631223218DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026254-3153.18635.00644.0967.55935149652820.0015748040.1615748041.181.341574804FF21.186311.186161416.946708633933.15184672588440.546380366858971631223218DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:09FORECAST2026254-3159.12639.59649.3617.728951962403200.211.291.5FF27.126312.126161417.024643842853.22316343939970.747608782803681641223221DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:04FORECAST2026254-3157.39837.9447.6696.12439402263940.0165354420.1365354421.051.186535442FF25.398307.398161416.285968128752.54949929491640.693866044829371631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026254-3153.49237.41845.4559.51207347706120.114173290.264173290.781.04417329FF21.492309.492161417.84199924893.97454379865770.5575961749721631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3161.28640.76651.0268.384860941861800.080.840.92FF29.286321.286161417.325732901173.49921823783690.807084541686341641213210.5DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2026254-3165.3941.48653.4385.13181443503780.0055118140.1755118140.80.975511814FF33.39338.39161415.827513847712.13394963804960.893959916370961651224232DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026254-3160.78241.34251.0624.51294820752530.0055118140.2155118140.70.915511814FF28.782346.782161415.541085363231.87531539634310.794028654783621641224228DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:09FORECAST2026254-3149.44236.28442.8635.84190223354760.2582678560.2982678560.670.968267856FF17.442329.442161416.155608004872.4311403759070.408881960447181621224220DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026254-3141.75638.76840.2625.08471547724380.0271653690.0271653690.650.677165369FF9.756321.756161415.805730966962.11425383577430.17289694098247161121428DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026254-3147.51640.29843.90710.47243403624900.350.761.11FF15.516314.516161418.280682317924.38041685421140.341306679664021621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:03FORECAST2026254-3145.60838.91242.2610.26055058271700.10.710.81FF13.608313.608161418.183988062774.29079796240030.279032656764691621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2026254-3145.73438.19241.9638.114200226273600.110.620.73FF13.734317.734161417.201549344033.3852569060890.282970218235141621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:05FORECAST2026254-3144.2440.47842.3597.679552407441900.430.520.95FF12.24314.24161417.001947107213.20238830681510.238075996721091611223212DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026254-3142.24240.58641.4147.003166040323400.090.590.68FF10.242322.242161416.690893264042.91815551301870.18466795874177161121326DRYL