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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, June 10, 2026

[ Tuesday, June 9, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, June 11, 2026 ]

DAY 253 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/11/2026 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 273

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 160
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 0.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-11 04:00:08OBSERVATION2026253-320NAN01.731.33.03TF-32273160NAN NAN2.2424982815128E-816 11255250DRYMH
2026-06-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.81629.24637.0316.73930414809320.1295276291.8595276291.33.159527629TF12.816317.816160415.879037416032.80273532196290.210094961443261611253230DRYL
2026-06-10 12:00:01FORECAST2026253-3244.67229.26436.9686.73994954005370.1271654231.8571654231.33.157165423TF12.672317.672160415.879335801952.80300573805620.205808344205711611253230DRYL
2026-06-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.18629.40836.7976.78527158511860.1464567721.8764567721.33.176456772TF12.186317.186160415.900288449722.82199640946060.19172826154941611253230DRYL
2026-06-10 04:00:31FORECAST2026253-3243.86228.61636.2396.34503391061710.106299271.836299271.33.13629927TF11.862316.862160415.696661873322.63760941611660.182677048977221611253230DRYL
2026-06-10 00:00:10FORECAST2026253-3244.04230.59637.3197.66083747129590.1547244932.4647244931.33.764724493TF12.042314.042160416.304594663613.18924183827160.187672162822381611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026253-3243.08830.48836.7887.884883837190.1791339552.4891339551.33.789133955TF11.088313.088160416.407907172593.28332797694330.16215448515831611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026253-3242.96230.7436.8518.05339232663210.2200788592.5300788591.33.830078859TF10.962312.962160416.48557126523.35412170378010.158961131413381611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 12:00:12FORECAST2026253-3243.39430.70437.0497.77741870885670.2129922412.5229922411.33.822992241TF11.394313.394160416.358360070213.2381932991990.170081976857891611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 08:00:17FORECAST2026253-3243.32230.66836.9957.75608200013290.2700788862.5800788861.33.880078886TF11.322314.322160416.348521110833.22923327036970.168194751537281611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 04:00:50FORECAST2026253-3244.04230.59637.3197.95735163924460.2740158962.7440158961.34.044015896TF12.042315.042160416.441311024173.31376994892730.187672162822381611253230WETM
2026-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.34829.89437.1217.35189030235380.2118111382.9518111381.34.251811138TF12.348310.348160416.162036134863.05957763766770.196354854451731611253230WETM
2026-06-08 20:00:11FORECAST2026253-3244.27630.16437.228.74210076350630.2098426332.9498426331.34.249842633TF12.276311.276160416.802645637173.64373072665610.194290311657221611253230WETM
2026-06-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3244.07829.78636.9328.78925264139260.2196851582.8796851581.34.179685158TF12.078311.078160416.824333602463.66357437511210.188681195918571611253230WETM
2026-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.45630.34437.47.89190196525070.2358268992.7158268991.34.015826899TF12.456311.456160416.411142430023.28627591329580.199476435134961611253230WETM
2026-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3244.54630.36237.4547.43081880936550.1633859152.7833859151.34.083385915TF12.546313.546160416.198467020573.09269539716550.202100385094751611253230WETM
2026-06-08 04:00:41FORECAST2026253-3243.1630.54236.8516.9399405070040.1519685862.8519685861.34.151968586TF11.16313.16160415.971774642692.88681936861320.163997836391481611253230WETM
2026-06-08 00:00:19FORECAST2026253-3242.36831.11836.7432.91643517159380.1425197622.7825197620.773.552519762TF10.368313.368160414.102989159991.20770452224830.144463941195711611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.1630.5636.863.35054718892580.1251969182.5951969180.773.365196918TF11.16315.16160414.305540236091.38815026319440.163997836391481611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.62830.68637.1573.35453729054290.0952756422.4652756420.773.235275642TF11.628314.628160414.307400930461.38980962616910.176308521259811611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2026253-3243.82630.81237.3192.97144498876020.090551232.280551230.773.05055123TF11.826314.826160414.128668391441.23056055639370.181688055865861611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.77230.79437.2833.03748540830480.1263780212.4563780210.773.226378021TF11.772316.772160414.159492099181.25800341396220.180210846665321611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026253-3244.83430.72237.7783.2658963897540.1385827522.3085827520.773.078582752TF12.834318.834160414.266060790881.35295003233450.21063444490171611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.09630.79437.4455.33826743961840.1039370642.0539370640.522.573937064FF12.096313.096160415.230137654962.21660952379170.189186961358111611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.93430.9237.4273.97236020215650.1330709382.0130709380.732.743070938TF11.934312.934160414.595281384111.64692179577210.184665072836071611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.0730.95637.0133.729451705640.1870079751.8670079750.692.557007975FF11.07314.07160414.482149752341.54579116035120.161695758234371611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026253-3243.37631.15437.2654.32963352463160.106299271.566299270.692.25629927FF11.376314.376160414.761550240391.7957655126490.169608906096041611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.57431.44237.5084.12579544508670.1066929711.5666929710.642.206692971FF11.574315.574160414.666705991441.71083000680860.174859006167791611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 04:00:09FORECAST2026253-3243.35831.6437.4994.55564161633410.0649606651.5349606650.732.264960665FF11.358314.358160414.866652629671.88998378794890.169136678194921611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026253-3241.93631.44236.6896.73567555093770.1015748581.5715748580.832.401574858FF9.936315.936160415.87735978722.80121496450720.13449635959261611253230DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026253-3243.71831.85637.7876.81659572143070.1807087591.3007087590.621.920708759FF11.718316.718160415.914768372472.83512283056760.178741180976181611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026253-3244.07832.05438.0667.06566462526570.1905512841.2705512840.71.970551284FF12.078316.078160416.029862192312.93952748034640.188681195918571611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026253-3244.00631.96437.9856.41513602548920.2622048661.2922048660.71.992204866FF12.006318.006160415.729101997032.66695873906540.186666462649721611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3241.16232.86437.0137.36921501058770.2303150851.2903150850.832.120315085FF9.162316.162160416.170033294193.06684645630830.117838154015191611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2026253-3240.0132.19836.1048.10126734866140.2295276831.1895276830.791.979527683FF8.01313.01160416.507630382173.37423966648340.0958290590664131611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026253-3239.48830.57835.0339.03671877127860.1295276290.7795276290.691.469527629FF7.488310.488160416.938115478853.76775249460920.0869140272650031611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026253-3239.79430.09234.94310.7869684073670.1295276290.7795276290.611.389527629FF7.794310.794160417.740820211284.50615703008690.0920620081176211611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3239.32629.69634.51110.9284726293170.1307087320.8307087320.631.460708732FF7.326309.326160417.805561518694.56597664343340.0842769345392861611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026253-3242.78230.66836.7259.79570896059210.1846457690.8246457690.721.544645769FF10.782311.782160417.286644087344.08761851862180.154470986235761611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3243.64630.8337.2389.32625623993130.1783465530.8083465530.641.448346553FF11.646314.646160417.071150478963.88971241964980.176793373710231611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:17FORECAST2026253-3243.17830.97437.0769.26917236894220.244094621.044094620.611.65409462FF11.178313.178160417.044929654873.86566133856440.1644607847811611243224DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:17FORECAST2026253-3241.32431.13636.238.71824783526430.2208662611.2808662610.631.910866261FF9.324304.324160416.79167326123.63369310316560.121198365657031611243224DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2026253-3242.63831.26236.9512.0858377379080.2889765341.8189765340.642.458976534FF10.638307.638160418.33420905265.05591937082590.150939665432161611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026253-3243.28631.1937.23812.0190256680710.149606381.759606380.632.38960638FF11.286309.286160418.30373367495.02760331208850.167256197948891611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026253-3247.69633.18840.4428.72694878552870.0047244120.7047244120.571.274724412FF15.696318.696160416.795675785913.63735451661350.306097084453271621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026253-3246.99431.87439.4349.13286589652820.0047244120.7047244120.641.344724412FF14.994316.994160416.982303454013.80824345867090.281006474646481621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:09FORECAST2026253-3247.331.29839.29910.0488303624030.0003937010.8103937010.691.500393701FF15.3312.3160417.402728215274.19440920863960.291821087049621621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026253-3245.4131.65838.5348.23222042263940.0299212760.5799212760.591.169921276FF13.41309.41160416.567955225493.42927922842450.228321860333791611233218DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026253-3246.29234.53840.41511.3338510770610.0562992430.3762992430.550.926299243FF14.292315.292160417.990902349144.73744663879150.256952924640691621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3249.5535.07842.31410.8988825418620.0137795350.2937795350.630.923779535FF17.55318.55160417.792025324154.55346621093440.376610297971491621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:05FORECAST2026253-3254.69838.76846.7337.44155763503780.0279527710.3379527710.630.967952771FF22.698331.698160416.203423156143.09720176131640.587157207543981631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026253-3257.48838.8448.1646.62992580752530.027559070.267559070.640.90755907FF25.488345.488160415.828461147662.75691184606640.69497192249311631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:09FORECAST2026253-3252.3439.90246.1217.10516143354760.0279527710.0979527710.610.707952771FF20.34339.34160416.048106833642.95608896317490.490168561379591621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026253-3256.0340.94648.4885.4234082772438000.650.65FF24.03339.03160415.26963715312.25217678742410.64004196514391631214212DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026253-3249.94636.9543.44810.90942843624900.370.741.11FF17.946325.946160417.796849734724.5579248330710.39232296057071621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026253-3252.6138.85845.73410.63565138271700.120.690.81FF20.61326.61160417.671563579244.44220914270310.501353985917431631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:03FORECAST2026253-3255.00440.2847.6428.49766502627360.0082677210.1282677210.60.728267721FF23.004331.004160416.690173395723.54089351325670.599486143221411631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026253-3251.47640.24445.868.10877320744190.1582678020.4482678020.50.948267802FF19.476329.476160416.51108857323.37739395562480.45447030121311621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026253-3254.0541.70247.8767.15755564032340.0523622330.0923622330.590.682362233FF22.05339.05160416.072306307022.97806068279010.56077787874961631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026253-3245.10441.34243.2238.6538819015090.0149606380.0649606380.650.714960638FF13.104326.104160416.762061535993.60660966156190.21882355199615161121326DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2026253-3245.21240.5542.8819.951822682578800.090.850.94FF13.212326.212160417.358248296854.15347528216190.22214970978373161121326DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026253-3246.74245.66246.20210.3828008299240.0015748040.1215748040.780.901574804FF14.742327.742160417.555776417794.335398461930.272248109774091621223215DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:04FORECAST2026253-3246.41843.95245.1858.96392202549460.0047244120.2647244120.991.254724412FF14.418329.418160416.904651856963.73710079131170.261190135990871621223215DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:06FORECAST2026253-3244.61839.39842.0088.990544926749600.440.941.38FF12.618328.618160416.91689074123.74831003692950.204214310661571611223212DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:09FORECAST2026253-3246.83245.17646.0047.1865284811280.0283464720.1783464720.951.128346472FF14.832347.832160416.085686699322.99021163805440.275360491277811621223215DRYL