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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 9, 2026

[ Monday, June 8, 2026 | Index | Today | Wednesday, June 10, 2026 ]

DAY 252 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/10/2026 04:00:26 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.114
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 330

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.59 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.76 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 159
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-10 04:00:26OBSERVATION2026252-3340.2099838.4299639.319976.653530.589999999999992.270.763.03TF8.20998330.20998159415.14623034338 2.76218789797660.11410983090516 11253230DRYL
2026-06-10 00:00:02FORECAST2026252-3337.4932.10834.7997.8822815362991.1740163822.8540163820.763.614016382TF5.49327.49159415.715720979823.27678835182850.0692450029649561611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3337.25632.01834.6377.76064067622371.169291972.849291970.763.60929197TF5.256327.256159415.659423210093.22578342721990.0661311870900931611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3337.61632.14434.887.60590758063541.173228982.853228980.763.61322898TF5.616327.616159415.587784565823.16092228104860.0709676633587211611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 04:00:50FORECAST2026252-3338.06631.87434.977.76113243914831.3283471743.0083471740.763.768347174TF6.066328.066159415.659650842623.22598959979970.077388512867341611253230DRYL
2026-06-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026252-3337.9431.60434.7727.31795906240351.7929143543.2829143540.764.042914354TF5.94322.94159415.454394599753.04027825197660.0755478995383791611253230WETM
2026-06-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026252-3338.06631.76634.9168.74885571158551.6255914293.2755914290.764.035591429TF6.066324.066159416.116285503143.64054134110790.077388512867341611253230WETM
2026-06-08 16:00:02FORECAST2026252-3337.92232.1835.0518.76516111181641.551181943.201181940.763.96118194TF5.922323.922159416.123814050043.64739227261210.0752876914770011611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3338.10232.4535.2767.89683761.370079483.020079480.763.78007948TF6.102324.102159415.722456645673.28289272680390.0779205870566141611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.03833.18836.1137.62968161.4051188693.1551188690.763.915118869TF7.038326.038159415.598793340543.17088646653250.0927440546735131611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 04:00:40FORECAST2026252-3339.23633.60236.4197.15669485312471.5582685583.2382685580.763.998268558TF7.236327.236159415.379647548612.97274538570390.0961301553131941611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 00:00:19FORECAST2026252-3339.05632.34235.6993.13486082477591.4874023782.6474023780.763.407402378TF7.056328.056159413.505562453531.29628238856250.0930482001586331611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.14632.30635.7263.61551374050661.3062999182.4762999180.763.236299918TF7.146329.146159413.730544589011.49584846882880.0945799546483871611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.89431.98235.4383.71492609586811.165354962.375354960.763.13535496TF6.894327.894159413.777042865331.53715113441150.0903372291531241611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.23631.96435.63.34526841417551.0212603942.2012603940.762.961260394TF7.236328.236159413.604083017071.3836166748910.0961301553131941611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.18231.9135.5463.31051844400261.1015753982.3415753980.763.101575398TF7.182330.182159413.587815434011.3691900912090.0951978162445381611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026252-3340.60432.37836.4913.52510569486480.9271658552.1771658550.762.937165855TF8.604330.604159413.68824771541.45829479792020.122023065410111611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.30832.19835.7535.72236554565921.039370641.979370640.492.46937064FF7.308326.308159414.713477292442.37314211377880.0973836581708411611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.62432.01835.3214.56548139084641.1114179231.9414179230.672.611417923FF6.624325.624159414.174394649851.89090549133890.085949566304561611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.07432.28835.6814.357735705640.988189511.698189510.672.36818951FF7.074328.074159414.077421834571.80443996602790.0933530797868161611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.21833.02636.1224.97474392463160.803150041.483150040.672.15315004FF7.218328.218159414.3652831132.06136117474470.0958186350995981611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.48832.84636.1674.77631784508670.8244098941.5144098940.592.104409894FF7.488329.488159414.27275788971.97869836624180.100569615948861611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2026252-3337.61633.02635.3215.21433121633410.8011815351.5211815350.682.201181535FF5.616327.616159414.476939503022.16122004410120.0709676633587211611254240DRYM
2026-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.0233.11636.0687.31761315093770.8090555551.4890555550.812.299055555FF7.02331.02159415.454234300223.0401333685280.0924406425801751611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026252-3338.7533.1735.967.53954052143070.6480318461.1280318460.611.738031846FF6.75329.75159415.557049180313.13310921126110.0879769481280621611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.59633.00836.3027.85443902526570.6212601781.1012601780.681.781260178FF7.596328.596159415.702836456023.26511258157380.102517205239731611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.21833.3536.2847.19121682548920.5976381181.0476381180.681.727638118FF7.218331.218159415.395651291862.98720019680510.0958186350995981611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.19232.55835.3757.62166240026050.5862207891.0862207890.81.886220789FF6.192332.192159415.595080051863.16752539536450.0792628713362921611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:06FORECAST2026252-3337.56231.89234.7278.26823221008860.5338585560.9938585560.761.753858556FF5.562329.562159415.894231396253.43871008002050.0702254056207851611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.33632.19835.2679.12669974485040.3074804810.6574804810.681.337480481FF6.336328.336159416.290663977513.79935989670710.0814467062476531611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.03831.42435.23110.8598818427990.3074804810.6574804810.61.257480481FF7.038328.038159417.088402361324.52953076764560.0927440546735131611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.60631.98235.29410.966547621830.366141930.706141930.621.32614193FF6.606326.606159417.1373832074.57455697778520.0856628080489981611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3338.40830.97434.6919.80944069531140.2456694240.6456694240.711.355669424FF6.408326.408159416.605331068744.08666528846940.0825554406122181611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3338.71431.2834.9979.44709996412050.2417324140.6417324140.631.271732414FF6.714327.714159416.438400538683.93413519878730.0873941034149091611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:16FORECAST2026252-3338.331.4634.889.24659823870270.4484254390.8084254390.61.408425439FF6.3327.3159416.345963258683.84978385055870.0808965536614791611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:16FORECAST2026252-3338.2131.4634.8358.98366152044670.326771831.056771830.631.68677183FF6.21320.21159416.224670214433.7392215536660.0795334093623311611243224DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:06FORECAST2026252-3340.38833.06236.72512.4494475685570.3433072721.5333072720.642.173307272FF8.388322.388159417.81695687615.20159029788320.11763874713691611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026252-3339.6533.2636.45512.376684596560.3889765881.6089765880.632.238976588FF7.65322.65159417.783671221655.17077672830330.103501186089621611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026252-3340.98232.95436.9689.79222718552870.1606300080.7006300080.571.270630008FF8.982327.982159416.597404272864.07941642754140.129968299875081611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3339.12832.10835.61810.1158818965280.1606300080.7006300080.641.340630008FF7.128327.128159416.746388801274.21575724991830.0942721309965651611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:09FORECAST2026252-3338.49831.40634.95211.0953143624030.2106300350.8106300350.691.500630035FF6.498322.498159417.196495120654.62892626425640.0839572337195011611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026252-3340.98232.19836.599.10325722263940.0858268180.5458268180.591.135826818FF8.982320.982159416.279849908093.78950255031510.129968299875081611233218DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026252-3345.0534.39439.72212.3859438770610.0921260340.3221260340.550.872126034FF13.05326.05159417.787907250775.17469757172280.23773213041688161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026252-3344.00634.98839.49712.3367033418620.0744094890.2944094890.620.914409489FF12.006326.006159417.765379049745.15384754783710.20623470934295161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2026252-3349.44235.85242.6479.51976563503780.1421260610.3221260610.620.942126061FF17.442334.442159416.471889961333.96471478601310.394334743559051621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026252-3351.11637.88644.5018.83074020752530.1763780480.2363780480.640.876378048FF19.116345.116159416.154090151873.67494865643020.460878834367611621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2026252-3348.14637.77842.9628.95763983354760.0122047310.0722047310.610.682204731FF16.146344.146159416.212661971273.72828312010080.34475767914809162121327.5DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026252-3350.8140.145.4557.5450106772438000.650.65FF18.81339.81159415.559582671363.13540148828640.44857515894598162121327.5DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026252-3352.01641.46846.74212.3724396362490.3488190860.3788190860.731.108819086FF20.016333.016159417.781729161045.16897922517250.497239500018191621222210DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026252-3352.26842.20647.23712.4285977827170.1043307650.1443307650.670.814330765FF20.268331.268159417.807419703655.19276037013140.507437642285811631222212DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026252-3354.33842.54848.44310.5047298262740.1031496620.1431496620.580.723149662FF22.338333.338159416.92522113774.3796868058110.590423814687151631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026252-3353.47443.01648.2459.83431560744190.2712599890.3012599890.490.791259989FF21.474335.474159416.616785316844.09714095416370.55605985917451631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026252-3352.8841.86447.3729.08501484032340.03937010.07937010.550.6293701FF20.88341.88159416.271434225213.78183215753870.5321711427229163121329DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026252-3354.57241.39647.9849.1630035015090.0484252230.1284252230.570.698425223FF22.572337.572159416.307409682323.81462625262330.599623800163841631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:03FORECAST2026252-3354.37441.16247.76810.4432322825790.0901575290.3501575290.590.940157529FF22.374338.374159416.896949988634.35375168662990.591842578279741631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026252-3356.1242.56649.34310.9994736299240.1110236820.4010236820.50.901023682FF24.12338.12159417.152500124974.58845792478130.658881321599461631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2026252-3355.79642.0848.9389.53503562549460.220472560.510472560.741.25047256FF23.796339.796159416.478926654863.97114140292180.64674342041191631233227DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2026252-3355.47241.39648.4349.41002412674960.3763781560.6463781560.731.376378156FF23.472341.472159416.42131101853.91853458357680.634454453911251631233227DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:09FORECAST2026252-335941.32450.1627.4162924811280.1519685860.2619685860.841.101968586FF27358159415.499957779713.08146921279070.75853594915211641223221DRYL
2026-05-31 00:00:04FORECAST2026252-3334.86229.96632.41413.23519345839300.460.631.09FF2.862313.862159418.176007219415.53464035520710.040151586481391161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026252-3333.6229.13831.37914.1310913096260.0185039470.5285039470.380.908503947FF1.62315.62159418.584518663715.91505605403250.030363257893221611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026252-3341.91835.3338.62412.38074085969400.350.530.88FF9.918342.918159417.785526934125.1724943439020.15115420427472161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2026252-3342.02634.738.36311.63323811313200.050.490.54FF10.026346.026159417.443226480564.85621645236250.15373841987197161121326DRYL
2026-05-30 08:00:04FORECAST2026252-3339.50634.62837.06712.81295612891100.20.380.58FF7.506339.506159417.98315292745.35559980108260.10089233221857161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 04:00:11FORECAST2026252-3333.13431.29832.21613.55850407652100.130.620.75FF1.134320.134159418.323537589495.67184138971190.027113133516186161122228DRYL