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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 8, 2026

[ Sunday, June 7, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 9, 2026 ]

DAY 251 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/09/2026 04:00:41 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.228
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 350

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.44 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 158
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.09 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -34

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-09 04:00:41OBSERVATION2026251-3443.9800832.1838.080048.02491833333331.142.240.22.44FF11.98008349.98008158415.0883478787 3.33105009284480.2281450609083216 11253230DRYL
2026-06-09 00:00:01FORECAST2026251-3439.03830.50634.7727.4740520.9503942142.0503942140.22.250394214FF7.038345.038158414.832378691733.10047876962570.115581420823231611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 12:00:01FORECAST2026251-3440.04630.63235.3398.3845081.1094494182.2094494180.22.409449418FF8.046346.046158415.255244088983.4817109161060.13456874317061611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 08:00:01FORECAST2026251-3441.34232.86437.1038.24389441.2129927812.3129927810.22.512992781FF9.342347.342158415.189999303223.42278251019180.161969295354361611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 04:00:40FORECAST2026251-3442.11633.81837.9677.69500723333331.1397643952.2397643950.22.439764395FF10.116348.116158414.935092228683.19292853606360.179951206869741611253230DRYL
2026-06-08 00:00:18FORECAST2026251-3440.74834.08837.4183.73529762477591.1500006211.7200006210.21.920000621FF8.748348.748158413.085607799821.54299768964380.148990042882061611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 20:00:02FORECAST2026251-3440.80233.09836.954.15897521.1645675581.7345675580.21.934567558FF8.802349.802158413.284387175741.71883951681110.150140503973391611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026251-3440.44233.47636.9594.26309212674711.2000006481.7700006480.21.970000648FF8.442349.442158413.333203610531.76207752603520.142581908574131611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 12:00:02FORECAST2026251-3440.11832.936.5093.83015009683291.173228981.743228980.21.94322898FF8.118349.118158413.130128895481.58235040319360.136002276233431611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026251-3441.12633.04437.0853.83266611303411.2330715321.8030715320.22.003071532FF9.126351.126158413.131309697041.58339437090920.157167022578041611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026251-3440.65832.55836.6084.16372169486481.2421266551.8121266550.22.012126655FF8.658349.658158413.286612906051.72081043635410.147085691567811611254240DRYM
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026251-3439.34432.41435.8796.29475834565920.9062997021.2262997020.21.426299702FF7.344347.344158414.283194758292.60781259767110.121133220986951611243224DRYL
2026-06-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026251-3439.36232.12635.7445.10874779084640.7688980531.2988980530.21.498898053FF7.362347.362158413.72922123242.11363824497960.121465523599681611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 16:00:02FORECAST2026251-3440.15432.2736.2124.934261305640.6877956471.1777956470.21.377795647FF8.154349.154158413.647579449962.04104524545160.136722937873391611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026251-3439.86632.79236.3295.56681672463160.6633861851.1533861850.21.353386185FF7.866348.866158413.943378419972.30434692203880.131030275138631611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026251-3441.39632.59436.9955.36366744508670.6370082181.0770082180.21.277008218FF9.396350.396158413.8484324622.21974536439660.163184605138781611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2026251-3439.81232.75636.2845.69422801633410.6700791021.2000791020.21.400079102FF7.812349.812158414.002901690822.35742692165150.129981347218691611244232DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3440.67633.7137.1937.89571315093770.6594491751.3094491750.181.489449175FF8.676351.676158415.028342692293.27694474340740.147465253858731611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026251-3441.21634.19637.7068.06401252143070.4677167880.8677167880.221.087716788FF9.216351.216158415.106500035143.34742401401070.159156502872011611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026251-3442.02633.49437.768.42889822526570.4629923760.9429923760.221.162992376FF10.026349.026158415.275836338383.50031775990830.177798273341851611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2026251-3443.91633.838.8587.75386802548920.4307088940.9107088940.221.130708894FF11.916351.916158414.962444610853.21756403104690.226376659855581611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2026251-3442.74632.95437.858.04310960026050.4744097051.0944097050.211.304409705FF10.746353.746158415.096794645483.33866901405040.19547543872371611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2026251-3441.23431.9136.5728.60003701008860.4311025951.0311025950.191.221102595FF9.234352.234158415.355204443493.57207013054690.159556364706561611243224DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3440.51431.60436.0599.24907569014950.3397639630.7897639630.241.029763963FF8.514349.514158415.655892252933.8444328085040.144072720874881611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026251-3440.26231.80236.03211.0105040888830.3429135710.6929135710.260.952913571FF8.262349.262158416.469436251614.58553843074330.138900521713681611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026251-3440.02832.75636.39211.0721221325160.330708840.690708840.270.96070884FF8.028348.028158416.497829696464.6115148383270.134211981683991611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026251-3439.90233.15236.5279.99478425507140.3877954850.7877954850.321.107795485FF7.902347.902158416.000754068314.15783778685980.131732791275281611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026251-3440.24432.61236.4289.74250657559820.3881891860.7681891860.261.028189186FF8.244349.244158415.884158351954.0517541474310.138535965113411611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2026251-3440.96432.46836.7169.53910070527640.3547246010.7147246010.250.964724601FF8.964348.964158415.790095404853.96626359232330.153627236472611611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:16FORECAST2026251-3440.31632.50436.419.21426775475920.7330712621.0930712620.271.363071262FF8.316342.316158415.639778946173.8298162127390.139998096971671611243224DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2026251-3441.01831.74836.38312.9679171685571.1885833191.5085833190.321.828583319FF9.018342.018158417.36923934315.41240972450510.154801268903981611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2026251-3440.89232.2736.58112.892497396561.2248038111.5448038110.311.854803811FF8.892342.892158417.33465243485.380485920010.152071029733611611252220DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026251-3441.8133.58437.69710.4000439855290.5440947820.7740947820.341.114094782FF9.81346.81158416.187897488854.32837244012880.172697701502411611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026251-3441.61234.12437.86810.5300474965280.5440947820.8240947820.361.184094782FF9.612347.612158416.247890539934.38311005771520.168104780614311611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2026251-3441.48632.64837.06711.4997383624030.6019688290.9219688290.371.291968829FF9.486344.486158416.694751834964.79188062308860.165223220978241611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3443.59232.75638.1749.66984442263940.4594490670.6894490670.361.049449067FF11.592339.592158415.850562067914.02121023826390.217554557208811611233218DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026251-3444.00634.46639.23613.3520350770610.2303150850.4303150850.350.780315085FF12.006341.006158417.545289995835.5750793582860.22886256577926161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026251-3444.70834.48439.59613.3821049418620.2082678290.4482678290.390.838267829FF12.708341.708158417.559064503835.58781922061590.24876877807829161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2026251-3447.42632.66640.04610.9315104350380.1716536360.5216536360.280.801653636FF15.426345.426158416.433029666954.55224200929870.333699469705771621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026251-3452.26834.17843.22310.4218682075250.0618110570.4618110570.240.701811057FF20.268354.268158416.197970151844.3375603931620.505265343127381631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2026251-3453.45635.43844.44710.4850046335480.0606299540.4406299540.230.670629954FF21.456356.456158416.22710673814.3641431427570.548498852531831631223218DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3454.37435.644.9879.395324277243800.40.250.65FF22.374349.374158415.723578156363.90585782647510.581543094798951631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026251-3454.15832.66643.41214.2468612362490.0208661530.4808661530.280.760866153FF22.158341.158158417.954745228285.9545432582990.573810667583821631222212DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026251-3452.57432.19842.38614.3057745827170.0204724520.4504724520.260.710472452FF20.574338.574158417.981670203645.97955155364090.516427644975921631222212DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026251-3453.16831.42442.29612.5919906262740.0204724520.3904724520.230.620472452FF21.168339.168158417.196776604135.25333790031080.538051130597461631222212DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026251-3451.06233.33242.19711.9781564074420.015748040.325748040.190.51574804FF19.062342.062158416.914815425114.99387086774180.461316009801681621223215DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026251-3455.83233.67444.75311.10398604032300.340.250.59FF23.832348.832158416.512510764714.62494910515140.632775112731011631223218DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3455.95834.39445.17611.2549875015090.0003937010.4103937010.240.650393701FF23.958342.958158416.582067455674.68862596256630.637107617333651631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2026251-3453.88834.23244.0612.5065818825790.0027559070.5927559070.260.852755907FF21.888343.888158417.157570918045.21721531862410.56410543010251631232218DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026251-3454.08636.57245.32913.2490944299240.0145669370.5345669370.260.794566937FF22.086342.086158417.498126620595.53147210391230.571226719232191631232218DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2026251-3452.86236.73444.79811.6747436254950.0350393890.4950393890.531.025039389FF20.862343.862158416.775282090464.86574456784930.526921748432961631233227DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2026251-3452.5236.51844.51911.465600126750.0598425520.4798425520.520.999842552FF20.52345.52158416.679038643964.77747523829010.514458512863111631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:08FORECAST2026251-3454.5936.0545.329.79727728112800.410.540.95FF22.59358.59158415.909478196294.07478048173830.589244143253951631223218DRYL
2026-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026251-3445.87827.80636.84213.28891985839300.750.341.09FF13.878338.878158417.516374535665.54834164077110.283887838288781621232215DRYL
2026-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026251-3443.50227.4135.45614.16070970962600.650.240.89FF11.502341.502158417.915364421345.91797815876290.215139589213521611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026251-3451.27829.28240.2812.59515445969400.730.150.88FF19.278361.278158417.198228754145.25467613146910.469168387807351621232215DRYL
2026-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2026251-3453.97830.90242.4411.84971811313200.40.140.54FF21.978363.978158416.855762404974.93962327833360.567345100363091631223218DRYL
2026-05-30 08:00:04FORECAST2026251-3454.62630.72242.67412.99037132891100.390.190.58FF22.626359.626158417.379535362785.42191514945080.590524398907081631222212DRYL
2026-05-30 04:00:11FORECAST2026251-3449.40630.8340.11813.5658840765210.0011811030.5811811030.170.751181103FF17.406347.406158417.643227827345.66569961404980.401835205969851621232215DRYL
2026-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2026251-3432.5427.33829.93912.7987311538820.0035433090.6435433090.320.963543309FF0.54329.54158417.291642740415.34080354819640.0364536902117121611232212DRYL
2026-05-29 20:00:05FORECAST2026251-3432.5427.10429.82214.244117914750.0070866180.2470866180.360.607086618FF0.54337.54158417.953491358795.9533788137960.036453690211712161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2026251-3431.98226.97829.4814.59808552450.0311023790.2811023790.450.731102379FF-0.018000000000001332.982158418.115204549826.10368151511220.032542037148515161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 12:00:04FORECAST2026251-3432.07227.80629.93913.993041478640.0598425520.5098425520.290.799842552FF0.072000000000003335.072158417.838696725135.84683421465570.0331485307618761611232212DRYL
2026-05-29 08:00:04FORECAST2026251-3437.6732.9935.3313.32601108865400.480.20.68FF5.67347.67158417.533367987655.56405429168630.092966056405493161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 04:00:07FORECAST2026251-3438.85837.25638.05712.96499060076300.650.180.83FF6.858349.858158417.367897365925.41117086640960.112401100925921611232212DRYL