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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, June 7, 2026

[ Saturday, June 6, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, June 8, 2026 ]

DAY 250 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/08/2026 04:00:32 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 366

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.54 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 157
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 414.62 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.53 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 24.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-08 04:00:32OBSERVATION2026250-3539.9900229.6200434.805038.50720083333330.540000000000011.210.091.3FF7.99002365.99002157414.61700082713 3.52723009495080.1424458721033316 11243224DRYL
2026-06-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3542.02628.25635.1414.56087362477590.0074803190.6774803190.090.767480319FF10.026368.026157412.770593895141.88259451477940.186814680004321611234224DRYL
2026-06-07 12:00:01FORECAST2026250-3542.81828.18435.5014.54482929683290.0082677210.6782677210.090.768267721FF10.818368.818157412.763049238071.87593759882730.206161787226451611234224DRYL
2026-06-07 08:00:02FORECAST2026250-3543.64628.2235.9334.55044802925760.011811030.681811030.090.77181103FF11.646369.646157412.765691416091.87826882704950.227604392043731611234224DRYL
2026-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3542.92627.87835.4024.81556525041070.0094488240.6794488240.090.769448824FF10.926368.926157412.89031847491.98830026987870.208888912065091611234224DRYL
2026-06-07 00:00:02FORECAST2026250-3542.42228.07635.2496.90847914565920.0251968640.4251968640.090.515196864FF10.422368.422157413.87122063272.85922069672950.196344108130211611223212DRYL
2026-06-06 20:00:02FORECAST2026250-3542.3528.435.3755.67640882859530.0562992430.6362992430.090.726299243FF10.35368.35157413.294408100762.34602802695220.194589952653681611234224DRYL
2026-06-06 16:00:01FORECAST2026250-3542.65628.29235.4745.5420917675660.0208661530.6008661530.090.690866153FF10.656368.656157413.231416327462.2901664305280.202110834862021611234224DRYL
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026250-3543.39428.32835.8616.17837272463160.0224409570.6024409570.090.692440957FF11.394369.394157413.529628086562.55494017499710.220949072568611611233218DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026250-3542.7127.9535.336.02619464508670.0496063260.5496063260.090.639606326FF10.71368.71157413.458349203682.49158048993760.20345584116591611234224DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3543.68228.47236.0776.26416081633410.0535433360.6435433360.090.733543336FF11.682369.682157413.569798337052.59066772556210.228564264849151611233218DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3544.18628.54436.3658.57703475093770.0161417410.7361417410.090.826141741FF12.186371.186157414.649508343443.55646324252090.242238318314981611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026250-3544.85228.0436.4468.79423892143070.0066929170.5266929170.090.616692917FF12.852369.852157414.750579498893.64741568891510.260966195875251621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:02FORECAST2026250-3543.39427.75235.5739.12773502526570.0204724520.6104724520.090.700472452FF11.394367.394157414.905656038613.78714888880440.220949072568611611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2026250-3543.95227.78835.878.57934562548920.0224409570.6124409570.090.702440957FF11.952367.952157414.650583951283.5574306735290.235835221385561611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2026250-3543.71828.56236.148.76261040026050.0311023790.7411023790.090.831102379FF11.718370.718157414.735865334733.63416880694320.229526403253381611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2026250-3544.6928.5836.6359.13936741008860.0291338740.6991338740.090.789133874FF12.69370.69157414.911062756733.79202464504410.256343331913571621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3545.21228.38236.7979.77276049014950.0070866180.5870866180.10.687086618FF13.212369.212157415.205222042354.05770118927930.271390341217691621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026250-3545.33828.09436.71611.5428480888830.007874020.507874020.10.60787402FF13.338369.338157416.024778122984.8021108150850.275087130465151621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026250-3544.43828.14836.29311.6376269325160.0066929170.5266929170.10.626692917FF12.438368.438157416.068557178094.84205064678870.249237846057941621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026250-3545.28428.34636.81510.5274234550710.0062992160.6162992160.10.716299216FF13.284368.284157415.555083996184.37472433813560.273499762720541621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:03FORECAST2026250-3545.4128.77837.09410.2554657755980.0062992160.5362992160.10.636299216FF13.41369.41157415.429081627154.26041872881540.277210645917851621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:15FORECAST2026250-3545.26628.34636.80610.0997839052760.0090551230.5090551230.10.609055123FF13.266368.266157415.356912527924.19501506009480.272971648281841621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:15FORECAST2026250-3544.94228.72436.8339.75694375475920.0011811030.4911811030.140.631181103FF12.942361.942157415.197882222124.05106238393640.263552827810541621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2026250-3543.75428.70636.2313.52299156855700.470.170.64FF11.754360.754157416.937234718045.63823870970960.23049080291001161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2026250-3544.29428.8536.57213.4724669965600.460.170.63FF12.294362.294157416.914009839515.61686023796630.24522502197471161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.97629.28238.12911.1270231855290.0011811030.3911811030.180.571181103FF14.976364.976157415.832580895694.62697876892450.325267910718721621223215DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.72429.22837.97611.2621434965280.0011811030.4611811030.180.641181103FF14.724365.724157415.895056730034.68386980839030.317306117875321621223215DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3545.84228.65237.24712.1435695624030.0043307110.5143307110.180.694330711FF13.842362.842157416.302077645125.05539323885650.290117285025871621232215DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.88628.74237.81410.4302796226390.0019685050.4119685050.180.591968505FF14.886355.886157415.510085687584.33388637974830.322415008526021621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026250-3546.4928.92237.70614.23773347706100.380.170.55FF14.49357.49157417.265464533845.9409144732150.309987808735421621222210DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.23828.61637.42714.3917873418620.0110236280.4510236280.180.631023628FF14.238357.238157417.336132425576.00621286794390.302189883959671621222210DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2026250-3544.52827.42835.97811.9358572295350.0062992160.4762992160.150.626299216FF12.528357.528157416.206243241384.96777829737010.251763454360121621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.02227.19436.60811.8127064014390.0027559070.4827559070.160.642755907FF14.022362.022157416.149399980494.91585068110450.295576841395191621223215DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3547.76827.19437.48112.1073254335480.0027559070.4627559070.150.612755907FF15.768362.768157416.285358954995.04010231408920.350799856689091621222210DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3546.97627.71637.34611.1545194772440.0015748040.5115748040.140.651574804FF14.976354.976157415.845296145984.63855445538060.325267910718721621233222.5DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2026250-3541.55828.56235.0615.7156780362490.0098425250.5998425250.140.739842525FF9.558346.558157417.942291626986.56824649294150.175928013932031611232212DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026250-3539.61427.75233.68315.6480489827170.0208661530.4908661530.20.690866153FF7.614345.614157417.911376233266.53949768573270.135102008948211611232212DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026250-3539.03827.48233.2613.9652610262740.0208661530.4008661530.20.600866153FF7.038346.038157417.140407710355.82547467828120.12436215798398161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026250-3541.34228.79635.06913.4964684074420.0141732360.3741732360.130.504173236FF9.342351.342157416.925043057745.62701567190010.17104142397634161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026250-3541.6328.99435.31212.8449772403230.0440945120.3940945120.20.594094512FF9.63352.63157416.625320028935.35154275351410.17757628523781161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3541.84629.28235.56413.0458675015090.082677210.482677210.170.65267721FF9.846346.846157416.717793881245.43644512449580.18257919284161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2026250-3542.829.42636.11314.1591114825790.2645670720.6245670720.230.854567072FF10.8349.8157417.229388239225.90759742188730.205709323294581611232212DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026250-3542.11629.5735.84314.9743416299240.2826773180.5726773180.210.782677318FF10.116348.116157417.603113021416.25333168010210.188954990935991611232212DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2026250-3543.64631.76637.70613.3406556254950.2460631250.7160631250.270.986063125FF11.646350.646157416.853405425645.56109772809820.227604392043731611232212DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2026250-3544.47432.32438.39913.109273726750.2122048390.6722048390.270.942204839FF12.474353.474157416.746971254265.4632501209660.250246472235871621232215DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3545.82431.83838.83111.5904204811280.1145669910.6745669910.280.954566991FF13.824363.824157416.046753483334.822156812680.289573936058651621233222.5DRYL
2026-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026250-3536.30227.89632.09914.0722822583930.4594490670.7694490670.321.089449067FF4.302353.302157417.189537622745.87080892867550.0814811670626771611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026250-3537.07628.56232.81914.7943073096260.5122050010.7022050010.190.892205001FF5.076358.076157417.520646713616.17692875559470.0922924176889941611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026250-3543.46627.30235.38413.7543064596940.3519686940.7519686940.130.881968694FF11.466370.466157417.043526320885.73614446804870.222839160222021611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2026250-3544.6927.7736.2313.2596917131320.0519685320.4319685320.110.541968532FF12.69369.69157416.816169665875.52685391081790.256343331913571621222210DRYL
2026-05-30 08:00:04FORECAST2026250-3540.38827.84234.11514.3838137289110.2043308190.4443308190.140.584330819FF8.388365.388157417.33247543276.00283258964930.15050687880451161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 04:00:11FORECAST2026250-3538.76827.75233.2614.5326640765210.1346457420.6346457420.120.754645742FF6.768357.768157417.400731477326.06594461585420.119538407088171611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2026250-3541.93628.00434.9712.8067015538820.0712598810.8212598810.140.961259881FF9.936356.936157416.607695603685.33537042264710.184689404971391611232212DRYL
2026-05-29 20:00:05FORECAST2026250-3547.76828.99438.38114.251694714750.0102362260.4202362260.180.600236226FF15.768364.768157417.271869999755.94683130428920.350799856689091621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2026250-3543.80829.44436.62614.59808552450.0610236550.4310236550.270.701023655FF11.808360.808157417.430722635146.09368938958160.23194163259829161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 12:00:04FORECAST2026250-3543.14228.11235.62713.993435078640.1870079750.4670079750.270.737007975FF11.142363.142157417.153342782275.83740822006130.21440636205173161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 08:00:04FORECAST2026250-3548.0227.7737.89513.4558006886540.0814961070.4814961070.20.681496107FF16.02370.02157416.906348102015.60980872589510.359073930639941621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 04:00:06FORECAST2026250-3549.3726.65438.01213.0643746007630.0858268180.6458268180.180.825826818FF17.37371.37157416.726310700025.44426862897920.404442434676421621232215DRYL
2026-05-29 00:00:04FORECAST2026250-3533.3529.2131.2811.9450821323210.0019685050.1019685050.680.781968505FF1.35355.35157416.21050050394.97166861285340.0488311459573191611223212DRYL
2026-05-28 20:00:05FORECAST2026250-3533.3529.2131.2817.8347243814810.0019685050.1019685050.470.571968505FF1.35356.35157418.908289970457.47111389274050.048831145957319161122228DRYL
2026-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2026250-3531.49628.3129.90317.9682352042510.0035433090.1635433090.40.563543309FF-0.504350.496157418.968978898947.52813315614110.034343431819274161122228DRYL
2026-05-28 12:00:04FORECAST2026250-3533.1728.29230.73114.91114493491100.080.420.5FF1.17358.17157417.574169513336.22650896268830.047239744787757161121224DRYL
2026-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2026250-3536.48231.96434.22314.80717224446200.050.360.41FF4.482364.482157417.526540861616.18238740717210.083906258147258161121224DRYL
2026-05-28 04:00:08FORECAST2026250-3540.74838.10239.42514.16510969787400.050.490.54FF8.748379.748157417.232140819375.91013904418520.15805479709835161121224DRYL