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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, June 6, 2026

[ Friday, June 5, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, June 7, 2026 ]

DAY 249 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/07/2026 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.052
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 374

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.56 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.09 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 156
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -36

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 24.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-07 04:00:07OBSERVATION2026249-3634.6299829.9100232.275.28214166666670.560.670.090.76FF2.62998373.62998156412.40590434649 2.17838641092790.05206837971920216 11234224DRYL
2026-06-07 00:00:01FORECAST2026249-3634.80828.68831.7487.29963874435110.287401730.397401730.090.48740173FF2.808373.808156413.354026813723.0173350692630.0537777625640151611223212DRYL
2026-06-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.40228.74232.0726.68319727713210.4740160040.5840160040.090.674016004FF3.402374.402156413.064845530552.76059385092880.0598035515806091611233218DRYL
2026-06-06 08:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.34828.56231.9556.52262608380340.3913387940.5013387940.090.591338794FF3.348374.348156412.989444984152.69377572618910.0592348556532531611233218DRYL
2026-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2026249-3634.68228.56231.6226.78234925228850.4822837250.5922837250.090.682283725FF2.682373.682156413.111389666762.80186572481820.0525633768730711611233218DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.0628.50831.7849.18129016665570.6303153010.7203153010.090.810315301FF3.06375.06156414.233940441573.80320200407120.0562728869460581611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 20:00:01FORECAST2026249-3635.52828.99432.2619.44137869966050.3866143820.5166143820.090.606614382FF3.528372.528156414.355234739573.9120846873630.0611470830076381611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 16:00:01FORECAST2026249-3635.29428.3131.8029.67736846989590.4614175720.5914175720.090.681417572FF3.294372.294156414.465221077534.01093266232410.0586703950203841611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.27628.16631.7219.15669526014330.4610238710.5910238710.090.681023871FF3.276372.276156414.222466269283.79290889353280.0584831794512081611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.2427.35631.2989.33739597146210.59055150.71055150.090.8005515FF3.24375.24156414.306751204193.86854618964360.0581101511501961611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2026249-3634.73627.3231.0289.74865573126310.574803460.674803460.090.76480346FF2.736373.736156414.498432540744.04080251998780.0530811448960091611233218DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.13227.35631.24410.4377873371120.4405514190.5905514190.090.680551419FF3.132372.132156414.81917679884.32979435078190.0570022392991821611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026249-3634.68226.97830.8312.1898562438290.3389765610.5089765610.090.598976561FF2.682371.682156415.632122901465.06649582848610.0525633768730711611232212DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.25827.37431.31612.248105193580.35433090.53433090.090.6243309FF3.258372.258156415.659087864185.09103623282790.0582964317239431611232212DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026249-3634.8827.24831.06411.1993542503260.3909450930.6209450930.090.710945093FF2.88370.88156415.172982366664.64966930468870.0544815761658411611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.16828.99432.08110.9601695897070.366141930.536141930.090.62614193FF3.168372.168156415.06193666914.54914921612570.0573696865995411611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:14FORECAST2026249-3635.29428.54431.91910.7844929437470.3547246010.5147246010.090.604724601FF3.294371.294156414.980332704444.47535246984460.0586703950203841611233218DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:14FORECAST2026249-3635.40228.41831.9110.4289840057630.3637797240.5037797240.130.633779724FF3.402365.402156414.815082981314.32609986576160.0598035515806091611233218DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2026249-3635.79828.4932.14414.1507835685570.3185041090.4785041090.160.638504109FF3.798364.798156416.537697520485.89433480575750.064105147479676161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2026249-3636.01428.11232.06314.118856596560.3212600160.4712600160.160.631260016FF4.014366.014156416.522989437275.88082835703540.06655046190597161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2026249-3636.46428.54432.50411.9322127142020.2346457960.4146457960.160.574645796FF4.464366.464156415.512805110524.95798717605350.0718752896642861611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026249-3636.69829.0332.86412.0662506252020.27559070.47559070.160.6355907FF4.698366.698156415.574889409865.01443076915980.07476990043291161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2026249-3636.55427.96832.26112.9060714586770.3236222220.5236222220.170.693622222FF4.554364.554156415.963400769925.36845337453090.0729782972206761611232212DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3636.93228.05832.49511.2558184355580.2259843740.4159843740.170.585984374FF4.932356.932156415.199187019214.67340666367960.0777523107497141611223212DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026249-3637.427.84232.62115.0253270770610.204724520.394724520.160.55472452FF5.4359.4156416.940117828526.26466164192190.083985809068275161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026249-3636.66227.91432.28815.1259045283630.2291339820.4491339820.170.619133982FF4.662358.662156416.98634115276.3072955859070.074318894700212161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:04FORECAST2026249-3636.03229.0332.53112.5901818705610.3374017570.4774017570.140.617401757FF4.032361.032156415.817363622025.23521623293870.06675744261141161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026249-3636.51829.31832.91812.5793581813580.397638010.497638010.140.63763801FF4.518363.518156415.812357706315.23065258382260.0725355547830031611232212DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2026249-3636.57229.17432.87313.0153093871120.3755907540.4655907540.140.605590754FF4.572362.572156416.013874685345.41454928836120.073200440021204161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.56428.88632.22512.0020464969290.4035435250.5235435250.130.653543525FF3.564355.564156415.545153682334.9873922560690.0615352355933721611233218DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2026249-3635.5128.72432.11716.1736309115920.4535435520.6135435520.120.733543552FF3.51352.51156417.46715304886.75195965112440.0609537231629131611232212DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026249-3636.91427.6832.29716.0210555172830.4149608540.4949608540.180.674960854FF4.914353.914156417.397214281156.68714394275750.077519746950991611232212DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026249-3637.43627.73432.58514.3008539960620.3480316840.3980316840.180.578031684FF5.436355.436156416.606815826825.95783324690370.084480370048044161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026249-3636.44628.23832.34213.9431880300130.2972442550.3572442550.130.487244255FF4.446358.446156416.442041290955.80652968532210.071656225061195161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2026249-3637.32829.31833.32313.3788714712160.2976379560.3476379560.20.547637956FF5.328359.328156416.181759479935.56804226874640.083003192032301161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3637.32829.28233.30513.6047755278120.3275592320.3975592320.170.567559232FF5.328353.328156416.285998825725.66347756939490.083003192032301161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2026249-3636.60829.73233.1714.6998829799720.3287403350.3587403350.230.588740335FF4.608354.608156416.790469478616.12677112850310.073646271897517161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026249-3636.89630.54233.71914.7475604276080.244094620.294094620.210.50409462FF4.896353.896156416.812400644646.14696606548330.077287709962799161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2026249-3638.4830.79434.63713.5861530512980.2051182210.4751182210.260.735118221FF6.48355.48156416.277408082275.65560857800360.099785758009258161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2026249-3640.15429.67834.91613.7069943904470.2062993240.4662993240.260.726299324FF8.154357.154156416.333146221545.70667609981580.12837985725843161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:08FORECAST2026249-3640.42430.07435.24912.331556733060.303149770.573149770.270.84314977FF8.424366.424156415.69771281355.12619992936280.133476188703611611232212DRYL
2026-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3638.53429.55234.04313.4326990236920.2921261420.3221261420.310.632126142FF6.534364.534156416.206602659835.59077802520290.10062903834706161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026249-3643.39430.18236.78814.6117798875990.1385827520.1985827520.180.378582752FF11.394369.394156416.749935916816.08945833178730.19863924742929161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026249-3639.5629.64234.60114.1807750219830.377952960.397952960.130.52795296FF7.56374.56156416.551512864645.9070232890.11764644355988161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 12:00:05FORECAST2026249-3639.9230.79435.35713.6666086555520.3484253850.3784253850.110.488425385FF7.92372.92156416.314520180745.68960762493410.12407331411819161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2026249-3640.49631.24435.8713.8280830555520.1881890780.2381890780.140.378189078FF8.496373.496156416.388981282045.75786141658470.13485832702522161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 04:00:11FORECAST2026249-3638.42630.43434.4314.3498409966230.4452758310.4952758310.120.615275831FF6.426367.426156416.629372187145.97856524540820.0989476348245771611232212DRYL
2026-05-30 00:00:04FORECAST2026249-3637.83230.54234.18713.07027920.5720475530.7520475530.140.892047553FF5.832362.832156416.039268458065.43774939691060.0900650069726921611232212DRYL
2026-05-29 20:00:04FORECAST2026249-3643.2531.4637.35515.067824314750.2311024870.4211024870.170.591102487FF11.25365.25156416.959650123936.28267475440690.19509593271678161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 16:00:04FORECAST2026249-3641.9931.4636.72515.17382392450.1925197890.3825197890.260.642519789FF9.99364.99156417.008359766816.32761142614620.16575200403036161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 12:00:04FORECAST2026249-3641.5430.12835.83414.4136406952770.255905650.285905650.260.54590565FF9.54367.54156416.658744936176.0055694420550.15600068630095161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 08:00:04FORECAST2026249-3641.59429.89435.74414.1328613827010.4031498240.4031498240.20.603149824FF9.594369.594156416.529441293985.88675285562150.15715051598119161122228DRYL
2026-05-29 04:00:06FORECAST2026249-3638.17428.70633.4413.6764329495030.5645672340.5645672340.180.744567234FF6.174370.174156416.3190513555.69375959145730.0951042149889861611232212DRYL
2026-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2026249-3641.8128.97635.39311.9502319429460.0952756420.0952756420.680.775275642FF9.81369.81156415.521152570014.96557415041210.161805280176941611223212DRYL
2026-05-28 20:00:04FORECAST2026249-3641.8128.97635.39317.8398741921060.0952756420.0952756420.470.565275642FF9.81370.81156418.229177716677.46115591393360.16180528017694161122228DRYL
2026-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2026249-3640.3729.15634.76317.9395977778180.1622048120.1622048120.40.562204812FF8.37367.37156418.27468219677.50367955925330.13244598123886161122228DRYL
2026-05-28 12:00:04FORECAST2026249-3647.35429.78638.5714.9182297349110.0759842930.0759842930.420.495984293FF15.354373.354156416.890885113566.21927399851440.31023486963447162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 08:00:04FORECAST2026249-3648.27230.48839.3814.8931738444620.0500000270.0500000270.360.410000027FF16.272376.272156416.879364971826.20865685469410.33952567711224162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 04:00:08FORECAST2026249-3653.54631.78442.66514.2868304978740.0464567180.0464567180.490.536456718FF21.546386.546156416.600358105635.95189870160870.52154446641869163121226DRYL
2026-05-28 00:00:04FORECAST2026249-3635.7832.03633.90816.26086643423600.010.540.55FF3.78365.78156417.507128610196.78902765367160.063904555747786161121224DRYL
2026-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.7832.03633.90820.37739403919800.010.620.63FF3.78366.78156419.383486212978.54594255209410.063904555747786161121224DRYL
2026-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2026249-3635.2430.4732.85520.7888745415100.080.680.76FF3.24360.24156419.569967149248.72238740845090.058110151150196161121224DRYL
2026-05-27 12:00:04FORECAST2026249-3642.18833.837.99415.15614456491800.070.630.7FF10.188395.188156417.000236541616.32011586862940.17016448744547161121224DRYL
2026-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2026249-3645.57237.50841.5413.9141592000.530.53FF13.572418.572156416.42866131665.79425468900210.25679502229289162131226DRYL
2026-05-27 04:00:09FORECAST2026249-3636.534.84435.67215.243299800.030.430.46FF4.5384.5156417.040278667286.35706999640090.072314953897595161121224DRYL