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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 5, 2026

[ Thursday, June 4, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 6, 2026 ]

DAY 248 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/06/2026 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.096
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 380

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 155
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-06 04:00:07OBSERVATION2026248-3739.5099632.1699235.839946.313963750.110.110.150.26FF7.50996379.50996155412.18704590923 2.60253406609050.09579750486284216 11223212DRYL
2026-06-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026248-3740.8232.4536.6358.55076087096140.0917323330.0917323330.150.241732333FF8.82380.82155413.239175850163.53350937520790.11729244391451611223212DRYL
2026-06-05 12:00:02FORECAST2026248-3738.49831.98235.248.5640726217590.1283465260.1283465260.150.278346526FF6.498378.498155413.245419468143.53906378293450.0812846351424481611223212DRYL
2026-06-05 08:00:01FORECAST2026248-3740.56830.6535.6098.55380619774870.1244095160.1244095160.150.274409516FF8.568380.568155413.240604220133.53478004153950.112913221080141611223212DRYL
2026-06-05 04:00:05FORECAST2026248-3740.33430.2935.3128.87634611747550.1047244660.1047244660.150.254724466FF8.334380.334155413.391824735653.66940891848840.108952134147831611223212DRYL
2026-06-05 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3739.93830.34435.1419.53652180951610.1354331440.1454331440.150.295433144FF7.938377.938155413.700957322533.9452682021240.102477399429571611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 20:00:01FORECAST2026248-3739.59630.97435.28511.6170865344680.1582678020.1682678020.150.318267802FF7.596377.596155414.671814348494.81727835069140.0971139206465851611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 16:00:01FORECAST2026248-3739.57830.75835.16811.6179999008740.173228440.183228440.150.33322844FF7.578377.578155414.672239428354.81766203657380.0968374310433941611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 12:00:02FORECAST2026248-3739.43430.66835.05110.582010481990.216535550.226535550.150.37653555FF7.434377.434155414.189456572514.382957170980.0946462286122181611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 08:00:02FORECAST2026248-3740.42430.79435.60910.4687387343080.1606300080.1706300080.150.320630008FF8.424378.424155414.136593563894.33548779833680.110463679657061611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 04:00:13FORECAST2026248-3739.9231.02835.47410.3275705941360.1460630710.1560630710.150.306063071FF7.92376.92155414.070690241884.27634428443550.102189865630851611223212DRYL
2026-06-04 00:00:14FORECAST2026248-3739.12830.84834.9889.81693432364190.1287402270.1787402270.150.328740227FF7.128371.128155413.832105972134.06256260534280.0901112727691761611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 20:00:05FORECAST2026248-3739.48829.85834.67313.5366147437360.1484252770.2284252770.150.378425277FF7.488370.488155415.562987724495.62531606658220.095463621401926161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 16:00:01FORECAST2026248-3739.81230.09234.95213.513199649370.1358268450.2158268450.150.365826845FF7.812370.812155415.55214302865.61543907346910.10047694079364161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 12:00:02FORECAST2026248-3739.84830.6535.24911.7205682721550.1606300080.2506300080.150.400630008FF7.848370.848155414.719968378184.86075370320240.101045580096081611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 08:00:02FORECAST2026248-3739.54232.10835.82511.7777632432540.1818898620.2718898620.150.421889862FF7.542370.542155414.746577965874.88478700123180.0962861809785981611223212DRYL
2026-06-03 04:00:08FORECAST2026248-3738.24630.86634.55612.4844413022490.1944882940.2844882940.150.434488294FF6.246369.246155415.075036574435.18197993014220.077941998060988161122228DRYL
2026-06-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3738.49830.93834.71810.8325537113090.1791339550.2691339550.150.419133955FF6.498361.498155414.306329060264.48799556248070.0812846351424481611223212DRYL
2026-06-02 20:00:02FORECAST2026248-3740.06431.04635.55514.8490851855980.1795276560.2595276560.150.409527656FF8.064363.064155416.169827983656.17974122740480.10450656489663161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 16:00:02FORECAST2026248-3739.70430.93835.32114.7732588738090.2149607460.3049607460.150.454960746FF7.704362.704155416.1348235946.1476674753610.098784992688373161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026248-3740.67632.1836.42812.2863184991050.1314961340.1914961340.150.341496134FF8.676365.676155414.983010063665.09861343335960.11477557101827161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026248-3741.59432.30636.9512.2317920.0775590970.1475590970.150.297559097FF9.594367.594155414.957674798635.07567596694040.13148793315609161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 04:00:08FORECAST2026248-3741.4532.16236.80612.7031464833330.0822835090.1422835090.150.292283509FF9.45367.45155415.176569677935.27404878106660.12876113296217161122228DRYL
2026-06-02 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3741.46832.23436.85111.52051760.1051181670.1551181670.150.305118167FF9.468361.468155414.626865693444.77671610365410.129099827603571611223212DRYL
2026-06-01 20:00:02FORECAST2026248-3740.47831.85636.16715.30510.1421260610.1921260610.150.342126061FF8.478358.478155416.380200118156.37274060082820.1113777689944161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 16:00:02FORECAST2026248-3740.49631.98236.23915.28817520.0633858610.1733858610.150.323385861FF8.496358.496155416.372396597196.36557414762170.11168366142021161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 12:00:02FORECAST2026248-3741.03631.76636.40113.56017280.0255905650.1355905650.150.285590565FF9.036359.036155415.573897982285.63525386780930.12114040541391161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026248-3741.91831.33436.62613.43638560.0637795620.1037795620.150.253779562FF9.918362.918155415.516562089355.58304075141880.13776776205432161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 04:00:05FORECAST2026248-3743.53831.44237.4912.9851891166670.0468504190.1568504190.150.306850419FF11.538362.538155415.307423726735.39284543864720.17219394609484161122228DRYL
2026-06-01 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3742.6231.33436.97713.31413360.066929170.146929170.150.29692917FF10.62356.62155415.459919575755.53148887467680.15206472812656161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 20:00:02FORECAST2026248-3743.03431.69437.36414.89508720.0322834820.1722834820.150.322283482FF11.034359.034155416.191061026276.19920214584680.16094136718869161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026248-3742.24231.96437.10314.94625520.0468504190.1668504190.150.316850419FF10.242358.242155416.214675606486.22085075959960.14424860057802161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 12:00:03FORECAST2026248-3741.57631.85636.71613.9159850551290.259842660.439842660.150.58984266FF9.576357.576155415.738603152125.78541218830530.13114492612855161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 08:00:05FORECAST2026248-3741.21632.57636.89613.8303319818810.2547245470.4347245470.150.584724547FF9.216358.216155415.698968024785.74925473230820.12441398645014161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 04:00:08FORECAST2026248-3742.51234.01638.26412.685752050.2562993510.4462993510.150.596299351FF10.512366.512155415.168496438455.26672460478940.14980345954452161122228DRYL
2026-05-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3745.03234.2539.64113.626180.0165354420.2265354420.170.396535442FF13.032367.032155415.604463902015.66310123393240.20840445718605161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026248-3742.42232.937.66115.20300080.0460630170.1360630170.160.296063017FF10.422367.422155416.33312012686.32951275835430.14793624221195161122228DRYL
2026-05-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026248-3745.98633.83639.91114.57442160.0185039470.0385039470.170.208503947FF13.986375.986155416.043000510416.06358609316780.23370496287633161121224DRYL
2026-05-30 12:00:04FORECAST2026248-3743.84433.24238.54314.1115734555520.0338582860.0538582860.150.203858286FF11.844373.844155415.829077463515.86800257158060.17926438391763161121224DRYL
2026-05-30 08:00:03FORECAST2026248-3750.77433.4442.10714.3527518555520.0468504190.0968504190.150.246850419FF18.774373.774155415.940578704985.96989191280730.382534763939211621222210DRYL
2026-05-30 04:00:10FORECAST2026248-3750.43235.4242.92614.7576063833330.0460630170.0960630170.130.226063017FF18.432370.432155416.1275969536.14104728107480.370930396962881621222210DRYL
2026-05-30 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3750.97236.39243.68213.50225520.1787402540.2087402540.170.378740254FF18.972365.972155415.547073888055.61082263924970.389302358031041621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 20:00:04FORECAST2026248-3753.13236.62644.87915.745406714750.1787402540.2087402540.210.418740254FF21.132363.132155416.583094582886.55927025469650.464886863790831621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 16:00:03FORECAST2026248-3751.85436.55444.20415.70449512450.1795276560.2995276560.210.509527656FF19.854363.854155416.564251978016.54193126422970.419830956785331621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 12:00:04FORECAST2026248-3752.01633.85442.93514.9011142952770.0188976480.1488976480.20.348897648FF20.016367.016155416.193842754786.20175201987960.425496987807971621222210DRYL
2026-05-29 08:00:04FORECAST2026248-3751.90831.9141.90914.60232778270100.040.220.26FF19.908368.908155416.05589038766.0753844873630.42171784912632162121225DRYL
2026-05-29 04:00:06FORECAST2026248-3752.71833.5343.12413.96031694950300.010.230.24FF20.718372.718155415.759113919215.80412900495670.45021319844604162121225DRYL
2026-05-29 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3751.15232.8141.98112.50688074294600.040.70.74FF19.152369.152155415.085456601885.19142430385120.39548404217717162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 20:00:04FORECAST2026248-3751.15230.8340.99118.39652299210700.040.490.53FF19.152370.152155417.799951115227.68606640679210.39548404217717162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 16:00:04FORECAST2026248-3747.8431.31639.57818.38958097781800.040.420.46FF15.84367.84155417.796775434157.68310763411750.2873956675069162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 12:00:03FORECAST2026248-3750.28832.23441.26115.68722573491100.040.440.48FF18.288367.288155416.556297647056.53461267248790.36607854960249162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 08:00:03FORECAST2026248-3750.21633.38641.80115.778675444462000.420.42FF18.216369.216155416.598415680656.57337119170190.36366057338464162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 04:00:07FORECAST2026248-3749.31635.25842.28715.414888097874000.550.55FF17.316374.316155416.430811993396.41923436738490.33392052481513162121225DRYL
2026-05-28 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3748.54232.86440.70316.3387008342360.0074803190.0374803190.570.607480319FF16.542370.542155416.856127409996.81088755666980.30914439063011162121225DRYL
2026-05-27 20:00:03FORECAST2026248-3748.54232.86440.70320.4552284391980.0074803190.0374803190.650.687480319FF16.542371.542155418.73925640598.56540714624240.30914439063011162121225DRYL
2026-05-27 16:00:03FORECAST2026248-3742.74631.51437.1320.819575341510.059055150.079055150.740.81905515FF10.746365.746155418.904982430578.7214238426470.15473130494433161121224DRYL
2026-05-27 12:00:04FORECAST2026248-3752.89838.24645.57215.3683933649180.0531496350.0731496350.690.763149635FF20.898393.898155416.409379829836.39954315006620.45658588861588162121225DRYL
2026-05-27 08:00:04FORECAST2026248-3766.54239.25452.89814.3120888000.590.59FF34.542413.542155415.921784208235.95270950944260.86658446001449165131229DRYL
2026-05-27 04:00:09FORECAST2026248-3748.77637.90443.3415.30352060.0334645850.0334645850.490.523464585FF16.776388.776155416.379471918066.37207182591510.31655048267085162121225DRYL
2026-05-27 00:00:03FORECAST2026248-3743.2536.89640.07315.79761360.0122047310.0122047310.170.182204731FF11.25370.25155416.607136605616.58139856709790.16570394214749161121224DRYL
2026-05-26 20:00:03FORECAST2026248-3742.02633.85437.9417.74382800.130.190.32FF10.026367.026155417.501125464357.40806816004590.13990565961523161122228DRYL
2026-05-26 16:00:04FORECAST2026248-3746.6736.42841.54917.085925600.150.350.5FF14.67377.67155417.19941391837.12823814657170.252843561854781621222210DRYL
2026-05-26 12:00:12FORECAST2026248-3746.88643.12445.00515.495781600.140.280.42FF14.886385.886155416.468094545546.45349863644580.259054092125521621222210DRYL
2026-05-26 08:00:05FORECAST2026248-3748.7442.76445.75214.8109176000.250.25FF16.74394.74155416.152209176816.16359607917570.31540618945287162121225DRYL
2026-05-26 04:00:10FORECAST2026248-3732.93630.2931.61315.888677083333000.220.22FF0.936365.936155416.649065021876.62000245120530.029030850519813161121224DRYL