Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, June 4, 2026

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DAY 247 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/05/2026 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.85°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.07°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.433 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 387 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.15 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 9 in SWE DAY: 154 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.88 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.83 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -38 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-06-05 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	247	-38	51.29996	34.84994	43.07495	9.2827613043478	0	0	0.15	0.15	F	F	19.29996	387.29996	154	412.88045312139	3.8326706935569	0.43287030603745	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.992	33.17	41.081	9.9329504	0.007480319	0.007480319	0.15	0.157480319	F	F	16.992	384.992	154	413.18575708759	4.1041536311375	0.35147738395941	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-04 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.596	33.224	40.91	10.9065792	0.007086618	0.007086618	0.15	0.157086618	F	F	16.596	384.596	154	413.6419942049	4.5114191702417	0.33806286561071	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-04 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.812	32.864	40.838	10.8888672	0.007480319	0.007480319	0.15	0.157480319	F	F	16.812	384.812	154	413.63370453083	4.5040024780802	0.34535571954346	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-04 04:00:13	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.218	33.8	41.009	10.710265216667	0.006299216	0.006299216	0.15	0.156299216	F	F	16.218	384.218	154	413.55009333958	4.4292311800441	0.32544671221394	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-04 00:00:13	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.984	33.26	40.622	10.2305628533	0.010236226	0.050236226	0.15	0.200236226	F	F	15.984	378.984	154	413.3253364023	4.2285508329249	0.31773456055944	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.93	34.502	41.216	13.9148448	0.006692917	0.076692917	0.15	0.226692917	F	F	15.93	377.93	154	415.04454337731	5.7752804061822	0.31596584102808	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-03 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.894	34.142	41.018	13.899132822524	0.006299216	0.076299216	0.15	0.226299216	F	F	15.894	377.894	154	415.03724575882	5.7686578050965	0.31478902563504	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.254	34.88	41.567	12.169198443254	0.018110246	0.088110246	0.15	0.238110246	F	F	16.254	378.254	154	414.23197282068	5.0408710787954	0.32663996234264	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.912	34.52	41.216	12.258152043254	0.016929143	0.086929143	0.15	0.236929143	F	F	15.912	377.912	154	414.27346648076	5.0782271396071	0.31537719940821	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.948	33.368	40.658	12.871546902249	0.010629927	0.090629927	0.15	0.240629927	F	F	15.948	377.948	154	414.55933807764	5.3360199638316	0.31655494925558	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-06-03 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.272	33.746	41.009	11.239276291394	0.007480319	0.087480319	0.15	0.237480319	F	F	16.272	370.272	154	413.79763577373	4.6507859571865	0.32723725361451	16	2	1	2	1	3	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-06-02 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.442	34.232	41.837	15.339496951541	0.012204731	0.082204731	0.15	0.232204731	F	F	17.442	370.442	154	415.70503139621	6.3767060618426	0.36694787806055	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.442	33.944	41.693	15.260226639753	0.012204731	0.092204731	0.15	0.242204731	F	F	17.442	370.442	154	415.66834336684	6.3431931267484	0.36694787806055	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-06-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.334	34.898	42.116	12.858022499105	0.012992133	0.062992133	0.15	0.212992133	F	F	17.334	372.334	154	414.55303985398	5.330332313515	0.36321409392056	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-02 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.722	36.158	42.44	12.8137296	0.018110246	0.068110246	0.15	0.218110246	F	F	16.722	372.722	154	414.53241143386	5.3117062305494	0.342309862413	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.578	35.96	42.269	13.269832083333	0.014173236	0.064173236	0.15	0.214173236	F	F	16.578	372.578	154	414.74471983821	5.5035927897021	0.33745781412391	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.326	35.816	42.071	12.0751	0.013779535	0.053779535	0.15	0.203779535	F	F	16.326	367.326	154	414.18806907057	5.001362352834	0.32903177658699	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.462	36.14	41.801	15.7781088	0.023228359	0.053228359	0.15	0.203228359	F	F	15.462	365.462	154	415.90789706631	6.5622400506915	0.30081636764195	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-01 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	46.85	35.78	41.315	15.7676784	0.023228359	0.113228359	0.15	0.263228359	F	F	14.85	364.85	154	415.90307544635	6.557825939209	0.28151593587746	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-06-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	46.724	35.546	41.135	14.078052	0.020472452	0.110472452	0.15	0.260472452	F	F	14.724	364.724	154	415.12032971854	5.8440855880347	0.27761765072004	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-06-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	46.832	34.88	40.856	13.9723704	0.002362206	0.042362206	0.15	0.192362206	F	F	14.832	367.832	154	415.0712593549	5.7995293781011	0.28095742663779	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-06-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	45.356	35.654	40.505	13.632661116667	0.001574804	0.111574804	0.15	0.261574804	F	F	13.356	366.356	154	414.9134353786	5.6563742572685	0.23706731726914	16	1	1	2	2	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-06-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	44.276	35.636	39.956	13.8846568	0.000393701	0.080393701	0.15	0.230393701	F	F	12.276	361.276	154	415.03052193682	5.7625563586177	0.20750073309428	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-31 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	45.302	36.068	40.685	15.51176	0.003149608	0.143149608	0.15	0.293149608	F	F	13.302	363.302	154	415.78473302848	6.4495529904019	0.23553614901553	16	1	1	2	2	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	45.23	35.978	40.604	15.5116616	0.003149608	0.123149608	0.15	0.273149608	F	F	13.23	363.23	154	415.78468751132	6.4495113711373	0.23350309268262	16	1	1	2	2	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	46.472	36.374	41.423	14.46872	0.006299216	0.176299216	0.15	0.326299216	F	F	14.472	363.472	154	415.30161142834	6.0088827313055	0.26990100512812	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-31 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	44.096	36.338	40.217	14.4353624	0.005511814	0.175511814	0.15	0.325511814	F	F	12.096	364.096	154	415.28613952112	5.9948059236843	0.20279352497545	16	1	1	2	2	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-31 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.136	37.436	43.286	13.42877045	0.011417329	0.191417329	0.15	0.341417329	F	F	17.136	371.136	154	414.81864533394	5.5705043665695	0.35640268211808	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	48.92	36.086	42.503	14.5385448	0.009055123	0.249055123	0.13	0.379055123	F	F	16.92	368.92	154	415.33399329246	6.0383518684453	0.34902398837517	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-30 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	50.162	35.546	42.854	15.903412	0.005118113	0.115118113	0.13	0.245118113	F	F	18.162	372.162	154	415.96581049966	6.6152756622901	0.39214635678126	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	51.566	37.508	44.537	15.5858752	0.004724412	0.044724412	0.15	0.194724412	F	F	19.566	376.566	154	415.81901347565	6.4809032498187	0.44251191750999	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	51.476	37.4	44.438	14.958699055552	0.004724412	0.024724412	0.15	0.174724412	F	F	19.476	377.476	154	415.52872231435	6.2157691060383	0.43924610188953	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	50.054	33.998	42.026	15.697486255552	0.001181103	0.051181103	0.15	0.201181103	F	F	18.054	370.054	154	415.87062467742	6.5281234149616	0.3883347080172	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.928	35.24	42.584	16.203692783333	0.001181103	0.051181103	0.13	0.181181103	F	F	17.928	366.928	154	416.10452120068	6.7424298272918	0.38390135888199	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	50.054	35.6	42.827	15.0420184	0.001968505	0.031968505	0.17	0.201968505	F	F	18.054	362.054	154	415.56731367111	6.2509711786794	0.3883347080172	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.658	36.302	42.98	17.42037151475	0.014173236	0.034173236	0.21	0.244173236	F	F	17.658	356.658	154	416.66546818807	7.2584672532034	0.37445298903375	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.264	35.744	41.504	17.2351071245	0.013385834	0.123385834	0.21	0.333385834	F	F	15.264	359.264	154	416.58016430408	7.1798037577227	0.29450704837279	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	47.408	35.276	41.342	16.203733495277	0.012992133	0.132992133	0.2	0.332992133	F	F	15.408	362.408	154	416.10453999985	6.7424470723325	0.29908960883969	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-29 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	51.35	35.402	43.376	15.877296582701	0.002362206	0.042362206	0.22	0.262362206	F	F	19.35	364.35	154	415.9537418297	6.6042209237142	0.43468094671208	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	52.088	34.376	43.232	15.304657749503	0.002362206	0.012362206	0.23	0.242362206	F	F	20.088	367.088	154	415.68890796343	6.361976466645	0.46152382263618	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	56.03	35.456	45.743	13.728615142946	0	0.04	0.7	0.74	F	F	24.03	365.03	154	414.95802802023	5.6967990671658	0.60486073847333	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-28 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	54.824	34.772	44.798	19.555281392107	0	0.04	0.49	0.53	F	F	22.824	365.824	154	417.64558362043	8.1671769098681	0.5616024968151	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	54.698	34.7	44.699	19.379189777818	0	0.04	0.42	0.46	F	F	22.698	366.698	154	417.56494270798	8.0920702693016	0.55703070572871	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	54.5	34.79	44.645	16.899021734911	0	0.04	0.44	0.48	F	F	22.5	363.5	154	416.42531329171	7.0371804202837	0.54983132902654	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	52.412	34.376	43.394	17.004247444462	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	20.412	366.412	154	416.47381014926	7.0818237219157	0.47337152529627	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	54.806	35.384	45.095	16.714161697874	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	22.806	371.806	154	416.34008284358	6.9587754659538	0.56094987220374	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-28 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	53.798	34.664	44.231	17.475712834236	0	0.03	0.57	0.6	F	F	21.798	368.798	154	416.69094198328	7.281971242727	0.52419000081087	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	53.798	33.422	43.61	21.592240439198	0	0.03	0.65	0.68	F	F	21.798	369.798	154	418.57578915646	9.0379890814933	0.52419000081087	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	49.55	33.566	41.558	21.52106894151	0.016929143	0.016929143	0.74	0.756929143	F	F	17.55	369.55	154	418.5433687836	9.0075006946035	0.37069428567928	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	55.022	41.522	48.272	17.058511764918	0.016929143	0.016929143	0.69	0.706929143	F	F	23.022	388.022	154	416.49881464704	7.1048499297307	0.56876993219286	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	55.184	41.324	48.254	16.5648584	0	0	0.59	0.59	F	F	23.184	394.184	154	416.27121675059	6.8954737614692	0.57461751140623	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-27 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	53.96	37.922	45.941	16.8098278	0	0	0.49	0.49	F	F	21.96	386.96	154	416.38419507303	6.9993466178192	0.53012004201226	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	52.124	34.232	43.178	16.0960608	0	0	0.17	0.17	F	F	20.124	374.124	154	416.05481420623	6.6968435855962	0.4628387429676	16	2	1	2	1	2	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	51.602	35.078	43.34	17.9498776	0	0.13	0.19	0.32	F	F	19.602	371.602	154	416.90905490606	7.4834665058954	0.44381935109666	16	2	1	2	2	2	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	56.228	38.732	47.48	17.4073984	0	0.22	0.28	0.5	F	F	24.228	378.228	154	416.65949610168	7.2529578457851	0.61185574581312	16	3	1	2	2	2	2	12	DRY	L
2026-05-26 12:00:12	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	64.976	41.576	53.276	16.045444	0	0.2	0.22	0.42	F	F	32.976	385.976	154	416.03143347292	6.6754090680294	0.86191164744053	16	5	1	2	2	2	2	16	DRY	L
2026-05-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	66.146	42.242	54.194	15.3716008	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	34.146	393.146	154	415.71988765603	6.3902801576693	0.8842844422949	16	5	1	2	1	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	55.22	34.664	44.942	15.893793883333	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	23.22	380.22	154	415.96136579015	6.6112042112985	0.57591479486862	16	3	1	2	1	2	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-26 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	44.186	39.272	41.729	17.3238768	0.017322844	0.057322844	0.34	0.397322844	F	F	12.186	378.186	154	416.62104278093	7.2174916174244	0.20513912179185	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-25 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	42.836	28.94	35.888	19.972372	0.068503974	0.188503974	0.65	0.838503974	F	F	10.836	371.836	154	417.83644585911	8.345184931856	0.17166043786166	16	1	1	2	2	2	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-25 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	42.638	28.382	35.51	20.29906	0	0	0.5	0.5	F	F	10.638	367.638	154	417.98579837515	8.484718800365	0.16706068576706	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-25 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	35.906	31.478	33.692	21.36178	0	0	0.46	0.46	F	F	3.906	347.906	154	418.47078750065	8.9392808990156	0.056360189350145	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	35.798	32.486	34.142	22.047917260378	0	0	0.47	0.47	F	F	3.798	342.798	154	418.78322236108	9.2332978366517	0.055239016153163	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-25 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	247	-38	36.158	34.376	35.267	22.528732308362	0	0	0.59	0.59	F	F	4.158	333.158	154	419.00183882579	9.4395802636177	0.059045769820739	16	1	1	2	1	2	2	4	DRY	L