Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 17, 2026

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DAY 229 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/18/2026 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.35°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.33°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.197 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 386 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.62 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.91 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.53 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 59 in SWE DAY: 136 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 423.24 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 24.93 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -56 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-18 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2026	229	-56	41.34992	22.33004	31.83998	58.90244125	0	1.62	1.91	3.53	T	F	9.34992	386.34992	136	423.24239906917	24.930010545681	0.1970927392043	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.558	23.162	32.36	58.618208	0	1.62	1.91	3.53	T	F	9.558	386.558	136	423.11625905733	24.802316881604	0.2025253485331	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.774	23.108	32.441	58.5515912	0	1.62	1.91	3.53	T	F	9.774	386.774	136	423.08668197995	24.772398445455	0.20825819039675	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.242	23.252	32.747	58.5413576	0	1.62	1.91	3.53	T	F	10.242	387.242	136	423.08213793819	24.767802731212	0.22100226346587	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-17 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.152	23.27	32.711	58.154671547826	0	1.62	1.91	3.53	T	F	10.152	387.152	136	422.91035053121	24.594212529319	0.21851744998065	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.9	23.072	32.486	54.4206725454	0.00787402	1.43787402	1.91	3.34787402	T	F	9.9	385.9	136	421.24279077652	22.92431597896	0.21164602105889	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-16 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.576	23.81	32.693	48.5914432	0	1.56	1.91	3.47	T	F	9.576	385.576	136	418.60770154523	20.340752352718	0.20299945868238	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-16 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.846	23.63	32.738	48.5869168	0	1.56	1.91	3.47	T	F	9.846	385.846	136	418.60564019979	20.338757412398	0.21019016792028	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.288	23.288	32.288	52.012843831725	0	1.56	1.91	3.47	T	F	9.288	385.288	136	420.15906501933	21.853667833334	0.19549326305134	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.028	22.586	31.307	51.846584475077	0.018503947	1.488503947	1.91	3.398503947	T	F	8.028	383.028	136	420.08398939079	21.779920042577	0.16467541628831	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-16 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.19	22.316	31.253	52.662420278055	0.029527575	1.569527575	1.91	3.479527575	T	F	8.19	384.19	136	420.45208229	22.142024264339	0.16845174630935	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-16 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.154	23.09	31.622	55.108088908517	0.014173236	1.454173236	1.91	3.364173236	T	F	8.154	382.154	136	421.55097177339	23.23086843196	0.16760779832611	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.73	23	31.865	49.655442395324	0	1.69	1.91	3.6	T	F	8.73	381.73	136	419.09159520304	20.810178563969	0.18143690113237	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-15 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.154	22.838	31.496	49.45541477978	0	1.63	1.91	3.54	T	F	8.154	381.154	136	419.00072490887	20.721854643397	0.16760779832611	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.388	24.404	32.396	52.99206467484	0	1.8	1.91	3.71	T	F	8.388	381.388	136	420.60059667397	22.288494021224	0.17314207132853	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-15 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.172	24.908	32.54	53.014031886128	0	1.85	1.91	3.76	T	F	8.172	382.172	136	420.61048912256	22.298257881983	0.1680294321753	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.172	25.07	32.621	52.402807086707	0	1.78	1.91	3.69	T	F	8.172	383.172	136	420.33503143821	22.026735564241	0.1680294321753	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.01	25.178	32.594	51.844465456296	0	1.54	1.97	3.51	T	F	8.01	383.01	136	420.08303232773	21.778980258291	0.16425922757012	16	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-05-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.298	25.682	32.99	50.399194407267	0	1.32	1.99	3.31	T	F	8.298	384.298	136	419.42906867851	21.138887172387	0.1709999116456	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.082	26.186	33.134	50.248669279964	0	1.26	1.99	3.25	T	F	8.082	384.082	136	419.36082015895	21.072323161142	0.16592806748718	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.74	25.808	32.774	50.149452541035	0	1.26	1.99	3.25	T	F	7.74	383.74	136	419.31582073803	21.028458851807	0.15809813213909	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.992	25.79	32.891	50.445845525008	0	1.35	1.96	3.31	T	F	7.992	385.992	136	419.45021513143	21.159520757952	0.16384371979088	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.37	25.52	32.945	50.591538055115	0	1.31	1.91	3.22	T	F	8.37	387.37	136	419.51623986782	21.223971814012	0.17271228103137	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.938	25.106	32.522	52.70356070392	0	1.22	1.61	2.83	F	F	7.938	385.938	136	420.47062403978	22.160299058296	0.16260128259835	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.632	25.358	32.495	53.654984504654	0	1.15	1.83	2.98	F	F	7.632	389.632	136	420.89888510933	22.583323158567	0.15567661481073	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.992	24.476	32.234	53.756737431621	0	1.17	1.82	2.99	F	F	7.992	386.992	136	420.94462556726	22.628609709872	0.16384371979088	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.622	24.98	32.801	52.763587525681	0	1.07	1.8	2.87	F	F	8.622	389.622	136	420.49767430225	22.186965842392	0.17879107125879	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.73	25.916	33.323	52.039309640479	0	1	1.77	2.77	F	F	8.73	393.73	136	420.17101292403	21.865409443507	0.18143690113237	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.252	25.808	33.53	52.489801520114	0.030708678	1.110708678	1.92	3.030708678	F	F	9.252	391.252	136	420.37426289977	22.065361623773	0.19456696194826	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.532	25.556	33.044	50.531684786102	0.030314977	1.130314977	1.78	2.910314977	F	F	8.532	383.532	136	419.48911860428	21.197491912511	0.17660482231482	16	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2026-05-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	39.362	25.574	32.468	54.733055433766	0.042913409	0.972913409	2.05	3.022913409	F	F	7.362	377.362	136	421.3829042932	23.063573859521	0.14973009699176	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	38.318	25.106	31.712	54.63449692906	0.071653582	0.951653582	1.67	2.621653582	F	F	6.318	378.318	136	421.33870971867	23.019628442219	0.12817320419463	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.334	25.484	32.909	51.1103635324	0.061417356	0.691417356	1.54	2.231417356	F	F	8.334	382.334	136	419.75116214188	21.453634490219	0.17185473771948	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.774	24.062	32.918	50.957814703076	0	0.73	1.63	2.36	F	F	9.774	385.774	136	419.68212071934	21.38608374181	0.20825819039675	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-12 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.404	24.674	33.539	50.444322600969	0	0.6	1.48	2.08	F	F	10.404	385.404	136	419.44952484581	21.158847146145	0.22551536031934	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-12 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.548	24.17	33.359	49.786495358385	0	0.8	1.35	2.15	F	F	10.548	380.548	136	419.15110606069	20.868064596352	0.22957034631119	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	45.086	25.178	35.132	51.817882407693	0	0.48	1.15	1.63	F	F	13.086	386.086	136	420.07102555296	21.767191004982	0.30730780907185	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-11 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	45.338	25.484	35.411	52.328906629899	0	0.62	0.95	1.57	F	F	13.338	386.338	136	420.30169809383	21.99392831594	0.31561752010066	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-05-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	45.104	26.006	35.555	50.466790688687	0	0.59	1.08	1.67	F	F	13.104	388.104	136	419.45970853518	21.168785312983	0.30789816077544	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-05-11 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	43.502	25.268	34.385	49.802938928269	0	0.67	1.02	1.69	F	F	11.502	392.502	136	419.1585716504	20.875328745166	0.25743945578841	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-05-11 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	43.538	24.098	33.818	50.577622978348	0	0.69	0.89	1.58	F	F	11.538	387.538	136	419.50993490816	21.217815323456	0.2585244356696	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-05-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	43.682	25.934	34.808	47.727824157498	0	0.35	0.53	0.88	F	F	11.682	390.682	136	418.21397564853	19.960443089961	0.26288788508379	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	48.848	28.598	38.723	48.524130510299	0	0.26	0.18	0.44	F	F	16.848	409.848	136	418.57704456153	20.311087138919	0.43936200244098	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	47.066	30.524	38.795	48.060400261996	0	0.2	0.02	0.22	F	F	15.066	407.066	136	418.36570012154	20.106823003731	0.3749372672737	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	48.02	28.994	38.507	46.030439692895	0	0.16	0.02	0.18	F	F	16.02	414.02	136	417.43761274621	19.21483685906	0.40911608532676	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	44.096	28.022	36.059	45.213619983953	0	0.16	0.15	0.31	F	F	12.096	421.096	136	417.06281478389	18.856919617076	0.27563888487836	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	44.276	26.834	35.555	45.064477401694	0	0.14	0.11	0.25	F	F	12.276	419.276	136	416.9942966737	18.791630059087	0.28127599111956	16	2	1	3	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-10 00:00:06	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.746	25.862	34.304	42.722337783188	0	0.1	0.35	0.45	F	F	10.746	412.746	136	415.91487480411	17.768855770433	0.23521194583696	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	44.96	26.564	35.762	47.532938063217	0	0.07	0.36	0.43	F	F	12.96	406.96	136	418.12500712915	19.874710066552	0.30318937213842	16	2	1	3	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.954	25.538	33.746	48.396173650126	0	0.15	0.34	0.49	F	F	9.954	396.954	136	418.51875325947	20.254706258579	0.21310774827188	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-09 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	41.396	23.828	32.612	46.454642519234	0	0.37	0.38	0.75	F	F	9.396	400.396	136	417.63195177266	19.400943024209	0.19828816013035	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	40.892	24.152	32.522	47.944740778986	0	0.47	0.65	1.12	F	F	8.892	401.892	136	418.31294966899	20.055905936373	0.18545122997332	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	42.602	24.854	33.728	47.649418083562	0	0.39	0.62	1.01	F	F	10.602	405.602	136	418.1781873567	19.925947282785	0.23110141488994	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	50.612	32.126	41.369	45.178589103676	0	0.12	0.72	0.84	F	F	18.612	414.612	136	417.04672345811	18.841582556148	0.50476777353429	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2026-05-08 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	51.404	33.098	42.251	46.8075512	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	19.404	411.404	136	417.79346949464	19.555889214396	0.53419749065181	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 16:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	51.098	33.17	42.134	47.0880896	0	0.02	0.57	0.59	F	F	19.098	403.098	136	417.92176184739	19.67913736766	0.52284023556587	16	3	1	3	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	50.648	27.428	39.038	47.743397891294	0	0.34	0.36	0.7	F	F	18.648	397.648	136	418.22108339901	19.967295591247	0.50610726627804	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	52.412	30.02	41.216	46.942082396329	0	0.24	0.43	0.67	F	F	20.412	402.412	136	417.85500304617	19.614983982712	0.57136387371959	16	3	1	3	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2026-05-08 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	49.046	30.29	39.668	47.394548066147	0.058267748	0.528267748	0.46	0.988267748	F	F	17.046	401.046	136	418.06180320711	19.813850226719	0.44665448434549	16	2	1	3	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-05-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	33.638	28.346	30.992	48.438550587936	0.161811111	0.541811111	0.39	0.931811111	F	F	1.638	382.638	136	418.53806035533	20.273377009498	0.057916991181776	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	34.412	28.274	31.343	51.749047342349	0.21653555	0.54653555	0.31	0.85653555	F	F	2.412	386.412	136	420.03993102729	21.736666276408	0.066794820172365	16	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	36.806	26.096	31.451	51.536727520743	0	0.38	0.31	0.69	F	F	4.806	385.806	136	419.94398658455	21.642538810582	0.10092444013377	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-07 12:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	36.86	27.932	32.396	48.816745009243	0	0.07	0.2	0.27	F	F	4.86	387.86	136	418.71027518593	20.440072736501	0.1018187319488	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-05-07 08:00:05	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	33.494	31.55	32.522	47.314580878411	0.041732306	0.061732306	0.35	0.411732306	F	F	1.494	396.494	136	418.02527136382	19.778690511163	0.056372264951367	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-05-07 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	229	-56	35.798	33.206	34.502	46.946981516667	0	0.11	0.35	0.46	F	F	3.798	405.798	136	417.85724346998	19.61713628579	0.085265093285662	16	1	1	3	2	1	2	5	DRY	L