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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 15, 2026

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DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 08:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.143
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 408

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.26 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 50 in
SWE DAY: 134
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026227-5838.37228.99433.68349.8323585102990.2574804540.4174804540.040.457480454FF6.372408.372134417.8084196195520.8203789551030.14307613846373161132125DRYL
2026-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026227-5838.87630.18234.52949.3104738619960.204724520.224724520.020.24472452FF6.876407.876134417.569534263920.5905516048860.15342120153844161132125DRYL
2026-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026227-5841.57631.06436.3247.2549292928950.15748040.17748040.020.1974804FF9.576413.576134416.6255517365319.6876109889230.21701212165032161132125DRYL
2026-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026227-5844.83432.2738.55246.3384303839530.1578741010.3078741010.020.327874101FF12.834422.834134416.2030700797819.2861969884790.31087184246696162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 04:00:05FORECAST2026227-5847.35433.51240.43346.0916750016940.1413386590.2513386590.020.271338659FF15.354422.354134416.0891542583419.1782460698050.39361147884622162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 00:00:05FORECAST2026227-5847.69632.75640.22643.6348009831880.0952756420.4452756420.020.465275642FF15.696416.696134414.9510234101718.1063053242730.40532325673728162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026227-5839.7428.16633.95348.4034568184740.051181130.411181130.020.43118113FF7.74408.74134417.1536058080820.1916765454020.17227792469648161132125DRYL
2026-05-09 16:00:03FORECAST2026227-5840.17227.91434.04348.8071963517490.051181130.391181130.020.41118113FF8.172403.172134417.3388659405320.3691399751760.18223699254505161132125DRYL
2026-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026227-5840.92829.06634.99746.5516106466120.0614173560.4414173560.020.461417356FF8.928406.928134416.3014283140619.3795020025040.20050895526221161132125DRYL
2026-05-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026227-5843.730.66837.18446.30657680.0326771830.6826771830.020.702677183FF11.7412.7134416.188368731119.2722586599130.27627470394632162133129DRYL
2026-05-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026227-5845.26631.26238.26446.54965756666700.620.020.64FF13.266414.266134416.3005274334419.3786469968490.32452874933889162133129DRYL
2026-05-09 00:00:04FORECAST2026227-5843.71830.50637.11246.613939200.680.060.74FF11.718406.718134416.3301757301619.4067894986110.27680880841741162133129DRYL
2026-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2026227-5840.02828.14834.08848.90809600.510.060.57FF8.028402.028134417.3851351407120.4135122584350.17887813589853161133127.5DRYL
2026-05-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026227-5839.41629.0334.22349.0448720.0220472560.5520472560.060.612047256FF7.416395.416134417.4478371053320.4736757375080.16504051301058161123126DRYL
2026-05-08 12:00:05FORECAST2026227-5836.28427.75232.01848.9535851729930.330708840.690708840.020.71070884FF4.284396.284134417.4059910744720.4335197357820.10528819112822161123126DRYL
2026-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026227-5836.60828.86832.73848.5336039963290.2448820220.6748820220.020.694882022FF4.608395.608134417.2133459613720.2488673148730.1106256176972161123126DRYL
2026-05-08 04:00:09FORECAST2026227-5841.57629.10235.33948.1487133021790.1897638820.6497638820.020.669763882FF9.576396.576134417.0366162742920.0797764735020.21701212165032161123126DRYL
2026-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026227-5843.64629.62436.63547.641255200.360.050.41FF11.646395.646134416.8033432714919.857034445010.27467542731561162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026227-5842.38631.56836.97750.9369224385890.0216535550.2716535550.080.351653555FF10.386397.386134418.3129750653621.307575565960.2387033744321161122124DRYL
2026-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2026227-5843.32231.35237.33750.8007623755050.0641732630.3141732630.080.394173263FF11.322396.322134418.250854769121.2474622864770.26517661544158162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026227-5847.58833.40440.49649.262454400.180.040.22FF15.588395.588134417.5475381177620.5694165563580.40161509481752162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2026227-5851.33237.61644.47448.25567847841100.350.020.37FF19.332406.332134417.085748652220.1267557848880.53300448768649163132127DRYL
2026-05-07 04:00:06FORECAST2026227-5847.22836.66241.94548.1769815166670.1106299810.4606299810.020.480629981FF15.228404.228134417.049602027820.0921909684260.38932014648162162132126DRYL
2026-05-07 00:00:04FORECAST2026227-5856.87640.40648.64144.65709840.0098425250.0098425250.020.029842525FF24.876427.876134415.4254589715918.5516955991590.71716539924139164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026227-5856.89440.40648.6547.2854808000.020.02FF24.894437.894134416.6396182380319.7010046687140.71770511372146164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026227-5853.97838.51646.24748.01009840.031496080.031496080.020.05149608FF21.978428.978134416.972926347920.0189112240990.62455081658434163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026227-5857.77639.97448.87545.6743776000.020.02FF25.776434.776134415.896344341818.9958066739270.74352701979941164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 08:00:04FORECAST2026227-5858.74834.6146.67944.9455288000.020.02FF26.748443.748134415.5590932748318.6775231948860.77049121545229164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2026227-5857.72238.67848.244.903745466667000.030.03FF25.722441.722134415.5397404682418.6592907372710.74198214347636164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 00:00:03FORECAST2026227-5847.58839.8343.70945.0996824000.020.02FF15.588426.588134415.6304749074618.7448024140870.40161509481752162131123DRYL
2026-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026227-5850.1839.90245.04149.2288616000.020.02FF18.18429.18134417.5321487589920.5546323648070.49229004962669162131123DRYL
2026-05-05 16:00:04FORECAST2026227-5850.4542.13446.29249.2755032000.020.02FF18.45426.45134417.5535156120420.5751595947120.50184096700999163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 12:00:05FORECAST2026227-5852.57448.5650.56749.2642856000.030.03FF20.574416.574134417.5483769798320.5702224953510.57650367710444163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 08:00:04FORECAST2026227-5852.57448.5650.56749.532524000.070.07FF20.574415.574134417.6712132955520.6883093966710.57650367710444163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2026227-5839.00238.37238.68751.84874526666700.180.060.24FF7.002369.002134418.7284227194121.7105433254920.15608281115712161122124DRYL