MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 14, 2026

[ Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, May 15, 2026 ]

DAY 226 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 08:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.02°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.364
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 411

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 50 in
SWE DAY: 133
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.02 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026226-5945.75230.2938.02149.602327200.180.030.21FF13.752410.752133417.017114406420.6850193567860.3636822876786162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026226-5945.08631.26238.17449.369020800.020.030.05FF13.086410.086133416.9098917570220.5824331178780.34150691538803162131123DRYL
2026-05-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026226-5945.33832.43238.88547.5961480.0212598540.0212598540.030.051259854FF13.338413.338133416.0930379539119.8044258162240.34983836200216162131123DRYL
2026-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026226-5946.00433.92639.96547.0110264514190.1492126790.1492126790.030.179212679FF14.004419.004133415.8226339705219.5482488446870.37219835215568162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026226-5946.07633.83639.95646.9337638666670.106299270.106299270.030.13629927FF14.076416.076133415.786898333619.5144441052430.37464324545427162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 00:00:05FORECAST2026226-5945.7733.94439.85744.46244240.2460631250.3460631250.030.376063125FF13.77409.77133414.640150496718.4359138081870.3642884079388162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026226-5945.91431.31638.61548.5539767037540.1586615030.3586615030.030.388661503FF13.914409.914133416.5348157527820.2244217403630.36914947282088162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026226-5945.30231.33438.31849.0278094688540.1594489050.3394489050.030.369448905FF13.302404.302133416.7529638395320.4324849067040.34864360751139162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026226-5946.0432.4539.24546.9701072737950.1700788320.3800788320.030.410078832FF14.04407.04133415.803708828619.5303448085210.37342016211972162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026226-5946.1332.43239.28146.96290480.1433071640.6533071640.030.683307164FF14.13410.13133415.8003774769619.5271935432540.37648023303914162133129DRYL
2026-05-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026226-5946.36432.4539.40747.2916919666670.1440945660.6240945660.030.654094566FF14.364410.364133415.9523889223819.6710922497160.38447237538316162133129DRYL
2026-05-09 00:00:04FORECAST2026226-5946.7633.15239.95647.2222480.0574803460.7174803460.030.747480346FF14.76403.76133415.9202927756319.6406912136830.39810836102176162133129DRYL
2026-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2026226-5940.85632.95436.90549.28634560.0996063530.5496063530.030.579606353FF8.856402.856133416.8718807468720.5460915854120.21543510708428161133127.5DRYL
2026-05-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026226-5941.37833.69237.53549.3877960.106299270.566299270.030.59629927FF9.378397.378133416.9185227899420.5906869521710.22938221366425161123126DRYL
2026-05-08 12:00:05FORECAST2026226-5942.40433.45837.93147.9501720.074803190.364803190.030.39480319FF10.404401.404133416.2564491024819.9595683305730.25821307087531162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026226-5945.01432.88238.94848.024070400.430.030.46FF13.014400.014133416.2905407490119.9919662357850.33914039507551162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 04:00:09FORECAST2026226-5944.16830.79437.48148.65306873333300.460.030.49FF12.168396.168133416.5804584928220.2679176800150.3118288478217162122125DRYL
2026-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026226-5945.69831.31638.50748.322478400.390.030.42FF13.698392.698133416.4281406324820.1228398308650.36186597737709162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026226-5951.51228.81440.16351.467303200.310.030.34FF19.512395.512133417.8719374336221.5067417026670.56665331684236163122126DRYL
2026-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2026226-5951.04428.8539.94751.463268800.310.030.34FF19.044394.044133417.8700926089221.5049608994140.55009249436194163122126DRYL
2026-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026226-5952.35828.1340.24450.510953600.20.030.23FF20.358389.358133417.4340946561621.0849941862350.59627617098177163122126DRYL
2026-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2026226-5951.65629.7540.70349.9201144784110.1559055960.3459055960.030.375905596FF19.656395.656133417.1630604871320.8248277356820.57172688186225163122126DRYL
2026-05-07 04:00:06FORECAST2026226-5950.3630.57840.46949.4424055166670.1555118950.3455118950.030.375511895FF18.36398.36133416.9436246589120.6146957679750.52573845208454163122126DRYL
2026-05-07 00:00:04FORECAST2026226-5963.75238.10250.92746.7837192000.030.03FF31.752411.752133415.7174793531119.4488098205880.89722167031339165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026226-5963.82443.12453.47449.4152504000.030.03FF31.824421.824133416.9311429440920.602756828140.8983747520245165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026226-5961.3441.01851.17949.892392000.030.03FF29.34416.34133417.1503334302520.8126279584330.85298623725328165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026226-5962.8744.07853.47447.8498048000.030.03FF30.87417.87133416.2101363207219.9155737787280.88232153523741165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026226-5963.64444.43854.04146.9683376000.030.03FF31.644425.644133415.8028903091319.5295705270950.89547432558389165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2026226-5958.76646.29252.52946.942003066667000.040.04FF26.766424.766133415.7907094780419.518048759410.79343006067826164131124DRYL
2026-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026226-5961.08845.80653.44745.6357656000.030.03FF29.088420.088133415.1854959665718.947307974450.84772180665362164131124DRYL
2026-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026226-5966.0245.17655.59849.8549808000.030.03FF34.02420.02133417.1331569768820.7961655321260.92917517841067165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-05 16:00:04FORECAST2026226-5965.78644.74455.26549.9304536000.030.03FF33.786416.786133417.1678068242420.8293778220510.92628089741964165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-05 12:00:05FORECAST2026226-5965.73241.16253.44750.0646712000.040.04FF33.732404.732133417.2294102236320.8884532378160.9256003647452165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-05 08:00:04FORECAST2026226-5965.73240.58653.15950.3329096000.080.08FF33.732403.732133417.3524637855221.0065638310540.9256003647452165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-05 04:00:08FORECAST2026226-5944.45636.78840.62251.9584612666670.181102460.181102460.070.25110246FF12.456371.456133418.0963898749421.723645079050.32102043443383162122125DRYL
2026-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026226-5948.18237.52642.85451.5490944000.330.33FF16.182369.182133417.9093343155221.5428477252720.447991619616162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026226-5948.18237.4942.83655.3569976000.330.33FF16.182370.182133419.6418254788423.2301115258920.447991619616162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 16:00:04FORECAST2026226-5935.45632.84634.15157.0281248000.360.36FF3.456342.456133420.3968677886123.9744450417780.1016252479755161121122DRYL
2026-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2026226-5944.79839.3842.08952.5150088000.060.06FF12.798376.798133418.350386213621.9696742134910.33207911034856162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 08:00:05FORECAST2026226-5944.79839.3842.08952.7004928000.060.06FF12.798377.798133418.4349573846922.051728458920.33207911034856162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 04:00:10FORECAST2026226-5940.20839.90240.05553.2741987500.050.030.08FF8.208361.208133418.6962857463122.3057091427360.19882379954706161121122DRYL