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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 13, 2026

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DAY 225 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 08:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.444
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 410

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 50 in
SWE DAY: 132
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.99 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6047.96635.25841.61250.3818520.1625985130.1825985130.030.212598513FF15.966409.966132416.6876065246320.9934933221580.44353936555955162132126DRYL
2026-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026225-6049.04635.74442.39550.13250640.0224409570.0224409570.030.052440957FF17.046410.046132416.5728015103220.8838386377820.48273585107888162131123DRYL
2026-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026225-6052.03437.444.71748.4568528000.030.03FF20.034413.034132415.7993992205920.1483302823610.59088361619434163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026225-6055.63440.69448.16447.9940776000.030.03FF23.634417.634132415.5852233983319.9456294611930.71187568549961164131124DRYL
2026-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026225-6053.8740.87447.37248.000124666667000.030.03FF21.87414.87132415.5880236496319.9482769451560.65454958842332163131123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 00:00:05FORECAST2026225-6051.31439.23645.27545.4734040.0992126520.0992126520.030.129212652FF19.314409.314132414.4142063212718.8448246273860.56513820584213163132127DRYL
2026-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026225-6047.69636.82442.2649.21774080.2000001080.2000001080.030.230000108FF15.696408.696132416.1509970836720.4820119081260.4338109420043162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026225-6045.536.19440.84749.62777360.1846457690.1846457690.030.214645769FF13.5403.5132416.3401871009520.6620365460280.35666100975274162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026225-6047.15636.10441.6347.72304480.212598540.212598540.030.24259854FF15.156406.156132415.4596704441619.82700046520.4144795878769162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026225-6044.54635.43839.99247.8153440.5055120840.5055120840.030.535512084FF12.546408.546132415.5024367359319.8673919453670.32469949737461162133129DRYL
2026-05-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026225-6044.58235.2439.91148.1888047666670.4846459310.4846459310.030.514645931FF12.582408.582132415.6753752669420.0308995050490.32588425602357162132126DRYL
2026-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026225-6042.2634.7938.52548.15714640.6208664770.6608664770.030.690866477FF10.26402.26132415.6607215854520.017034222120.25348606428578162133129DRYL
2026-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6046.05835.640.82949.90164080.4102364420.4502364420.030.480236442FF14.058407.058132416.4664403086520.7823587095370.37585110159171162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026225-6044.90636.33840.62250.07128240.4188978640.4588978640.030.488897864FF12.906400.906132416.5446013136320.856922364570.33662502073399162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 12:00:05FORECAST2026225-6047.0336.21241.62148.70204640.2905513380.2905513380.030.320551338FF15.03404.03132415.9127746630220.2558032499910.40999679112805162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026225-6046.6736.03241.35148.79946240.4334648010.4334648010.030.463464801FF14.67399.67132415.9577993999720.2985169918060.39725534283148162132126DRYL
2026-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2026225-6044.45633.87239.16449.2304799333330.4574805620.4574805620.030.487480562FF12.456397.456132416.1568779134720.4876028272380.32174536500786162122125DRYL
2026-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026225-6043.41234.5238.96649.09619760.3574805080.3874805080.030.417480508FF11.412392.412132416.0948789189820.4286763957540.28833598353786162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6039.57832.12635.85252.29612640.2527560420.3127560420.030.342756042FF7.578388.578132417.566569146221.8371140804840.18173362760339161122124DRYL
2026-05-07 16:00:04FORECAST2026225-6039.4732.14435.80752.301440.2527560420.3127560420.030.342756042FF7.47388.47132417.5690030078621.8394601566750.17913806760221161122124DRYL
2026-05-07 12:00:04FORECAST2026225-6037.11231.38834.2551.45706960.1838583670.2038583670.030.233858367FF5.112382.112132417.1818319368121.4669545618280.12832207975752161122124DRYL
2026-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2026225-6042.4432.30637.37350.835280.1862205730.1862205730.030.216220573FF10.44389.44132416.8961899918421.1930345491680.25878202739247162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 04:00:06FORECAST2026225-6042.8931.58637.23850.7178663166670.1862205730.1862205730.030.216220573FF10.89392.89132416.8422010386121.1413470274220.27226773363405162122125DRYL
2026-05-07 00:00:04FORECAST2026225-6052.5238.2145.36549.3837424000.030.03FF20.52392.52132416.2276143181520.5548772852540.60804979056643163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026225-6061.5241.84651.68352.181176000.030.03FF29.52402.52132417.5139087828221.7863667566440.86370069717551165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026225-6060.83641.79251.31452.3648888000.030.03FF28.836399.836132417.5980628009821.8674761216690.8495536368834165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026225-6061.53842.04451.79150.6103184000.030.03FF29.538399.538132416.7927344142321.0940129955110.86406030404174165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026225-6062.5140.6451.57549.797928000.030.03FF30.51406.51132416.4186388772220.7367853966660.88252267500016165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2026225-6064.63441.97253.30349.596933466667000.040.04FF32.634410.634132416.3259642486520.6484911492860.91653965363026165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026225-6062.13239.79450.96348.4216664000.030.03FF30.132404.132132415.7831235332620.1329117024780.87556499337944165131124.5DRYL
2026-05-05 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6061.55640.33450.94552.935196000.030.03FF29.556398.556132417.8590555529822.1194510060720.8644192626545165121124DRYL
2026-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2026225-6061.1641.19851.17952.9316536000.030.03FF29.16396.16132417.85743559222.117885034940.8563721481902165121124DRYL
2026-05-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026225-6056.64238.82247.73252.4296168000.040.04FF24.642383.642132417.6277036471321.8960604672830.74248193345526164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 08:00:04FORECAST2026225-6056.55238.5747.56152.6597744000.080.08FF24.552382.552132417.7330600876821.9977287036390.73981938514994164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 04:00:08FORECAST2026225-6052.23237.6744.95153.078253266667000.070.07FF20.232372.232132417.9244643287322.1827005639760.59790031700156163121123DRYL
2026-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026225-6053.637.29245.44651.9408248000.330.33FF21.6365.6132417.4037508867221.680295095670.64540867776633163121123DRYL
2026-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6053.45637.23845.34755.74676000.330.33FF21.456367.456132419.1402149502123.3657089691780.64049867784232163121123DRYL
2026-05-04 16:00:04FORECAST2026225-6047.89434.1064157.1244584000.360.36FF15.894351.894132419.7646654836823.9788291712120.44094154056815162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2026225-6059.0937.5848.33552.924648000.060.06FF27.09377.09132417.8542318457822.1147881357480.80916722390055164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2026225-6059.0937.5848.33553.110132000.060.06FF27.09378.09132417.939036714722.1967974078710.80916722390055164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 04:00:10FORECAST2026225-6047.71434.8841.29753.406349950.0212598540.0512598540.030.081259854FF15.714365.714132418.0743872656422.327827031440.43445832494297162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2026225-6048.23636.71642.47654.214692000.030.03FF16.236359.236132418.4432244251822.6857705316980.45330193643047162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026225-6048.23636.71642.47658.2036512000.030.03FF16.236360.236132420.2522924699724.4602178469220.45330193643047162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026225-6050.5436.37443.45758.095116000.030.03FF18.54363.54132420.2033119039724.4117601486450.53715350412205163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026225-6053.45648.86651.16153.111156000.030.03FF21.456397.456132417.9395047853622.1972502372180.64049867784232163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026225-6053.45648.86651.16152.8411464000.030.03FF21.456394.456132417.8160411572422.0778785990580.64049867784232163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 04:00:06FORECAST2026225-6051.45850.55851.00852.513585716667000.090.09FF19.458400.458132417.6661482115921.9331470750590.57031311202977163131123.5DRYL