Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 12, 2026

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DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 08:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.93°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.926 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 406 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.05 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5) Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 52 in SWE DAY: 131 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.60 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 21.53 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -61 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 3 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.958	42.926	53.942	51.6830936	0.017716545	0.017716545	0.03	0.047716545	F	F	32.958	405.958	131	416.59791204501	21.531068881787	0.92591318592224	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.698	43.448	53.573	51.5846936	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	31.698	404.698	131	416.5525924631	21.487737850495	0.90864051778182	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.968	43.358	53.663	50.1676352	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	31.968	404.968	131	415.89868749711	20.864653634514	0.91257189712374	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.598	44.96	54.779	50.0412896	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.598	405.598	131	415.84027065893	20.809183411386	0.921253589625	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.914	45.032	54.473	50.030018266667	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	31.914	404.914	131	415.83505836235	20.804235565789	0.91179586216018	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-10 00:00:05	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.022	45.068	54.545	47.2541488	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.022	402.022	131	414.54683543533	19.58905784623	0.91334284158008	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	66.776	45.05	55.913	50.7590784	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	34.776	404.776	131	416.17189656364	21.124501925551	0.94630214199236	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.392	45.068	54.23	50.9245872	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	31.392	402.392	131	416.24827761234	21.197271710119	0.90402878631854	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.338	45.68	54.509	49.0794888	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	31.338	403.338	131	415.39495974786	20.387372274521	0.90319754352933	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	65.444	45.626	55.535	48.9923064	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	33.444	408.444	131	415.35454075511	20.349176925306	0.93186684060691	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.526	44.96	54.743	49.321880766667	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.526	407.526	131	415.50728906441	20.493600968916	0.92029567103036	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	62.618	43.25	52.934	49.0654768	0.037401595	0.037401595	0.03	0.067401595	F	F	30.618	403.618	131	415.38846419028	20.381233052716	0.891606905852	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.886	44.708	54.797	51.14276	0.037795296	0.037795296	0.03	0.067795296	F	F	32.886	404.886	131	416.34891364643	21.29323256688	0.92499846568317	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	63.986	45.05	54.518	51.1758224	0.038188997	0.038188997	0.03	0.068188997	F	F	31.986	399.986	131	416.36415939344	21.307778274844	0.91282944347242	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.67	45.302	54.986	49.9741616	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.67	400.67	131	415.80922589636	20.779717449716	0.92220278858016	16	5	1	3	1	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	61.61	44.96	53.285	50.13416	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	29.61	396.61	131	415.88321181214	20.849955482304	0.87375650296206	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	62.042	45.086	53.564	50.332756733333	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	30.042	397.042	131	415.9750044249	20.937168704866	0.88164210928974	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-08 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	61.376	43.7	52.538	50.0964336	0.032283482	0.032283482	0.03	0.062283482	F	F	29.376	393.376	131	415.86576920751	20.833391893617	0.86933595357085	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	60.458	40.748	50.603	52.697008	0.057874047	0.057874047	0.03	0.087874047	F	F	28.458	393.458	131	417.06422631402	21.978036870583	0.85097046612757	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	60.332	40.622	50.477	52.7031088	0.057874047	0.057874047	0.03	0.087874047	F	F	28.332	393.332	131	417.06702852924	21.980728981469	0.84832164905464	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	56.462	37.976	47.219	51.7845448	0.022047256	0.022047256	0.03	0.052047256	F	F	24.462	389.462	131	416.64462504465	21.575752251304	0.75206667407745	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	59.27	44.024	51.647	51.4077712	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	27.27	391.27	131	416.47107972607	21.409849977975	0.8247630474791	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	60.35	43.7	52.025	51.300000716667	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	28.35	394.35	131	416.42140911467	21.362418586018	0.84870195022796	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	56.894	39.812	48.353	51.1436264	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.894	383.894	131	416.34931317748	21.293613725045	0.76419834217163	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	57.29	38.606	47.948	54.677092	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	25.29	385.29	131	417.9714408793	22.85346292633	0.77502571145227	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	57.488	38.264	47.876	54.8052088	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	25.488	383.488	131	418.02998310638	22.910220508806	0.78033211722338	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	56.3	37.832	47.066	53.165668	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.3	382.3	131	417.27936449274	22.184936155872	0.74743301208195	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	58.172	39.578	48.875	52.4032648	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	26.172	388.172	131	416.92925299971	21.84845404781	0.79810183451872	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	58.19	39.668	48.929	52.416585466667	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	26.19	390.19	131	416.93537594966	21.854328767542	0.79855755432348	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	57.47	39.074	48.272	50.9476928	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	25.47	386.47	131	416.25893811649	21.207432504413	0.7798527011475	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	56.75	35.798	46.274	55.4524648	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.75	380.75	131	418.32545190705	23.19717739682	0.76019114564229	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	56.102	35.852	45.977	55.4126128	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	24.102	379.102	131	418.30727371861	23.179498989993	0.74170837865756	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	54.41	36.896	45.653	54.4373704	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	22.41	371.41	131	417.86185030255	22.747300320949	0.69019942176541	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	53.798	34.862	44.33	54.64588	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	21.798	369.798	131	417.95717585118	22.839637676702	0.67052583253305	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	52.07	34.07	43.07	54.762861266667	0	0	0.07	0.07	F	F	20.07	364.07	131	418.01063475492	22.891458399075	0.61253575326169	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	51.854	35.348	43.601	53.686244	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	19.854	355.854	131	417.51803465619	22.414975082953	0.6050750566898	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	51.746	37.958	44.852	57.4787968	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	19.746	357.746	131	419.24732672004	24.097831901485	0.60133002466089	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	44.114	35.384	39.749	58.2540904	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	12.114	348.114	131	419.59879156265	24.443345935422	0.33371126034918	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	52.646	37.544	45.095	54.7757488	0	0	0.06	0.06	F	F	20.646	361.646	131	418.01652321722	22.897168069996	0.63222203350935	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	52.646	37.544	45.095	54.9612328	0	0	0.06	0.06	F	F	20.646	362.646	131	418.10125164392	22.979360225573	0.63222203350935	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	46.958	38.03	42.494	54.56018835	0.032283482	0.032283482	0.03	0.062283482	F	F	14.958	361.958	131	417.91800581085	22.801685111896	0.43098152688713	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	50.414	35.906	43.16	54.5831016	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	18.414	355.414	131	417.92848039601	22.811832706989	0.55447727254083	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	50.414	35.906	43.16	58.5720608	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	18.414	356.414	131	419.74273747293	24.585197139623	0.55447727254083	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	50.504	36.77	43.637	58.464608	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	18.504	356.504	131	419.69410635516	24.537251407965	0.55767484166111	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.67	43.754	54.212	53.9551328	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.67	387.67	131	417.64118942855	22.533885838367	0.92220278858016	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	64.67	43.916	54.293	53.6851232	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.67	384.67	131	417.51752113831	22.414479560469	0.92220278858016	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-03 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	61.79	45.428	53.609	52.825218516667	0	0	0.09	0.09	F	F	29.79	392.79	131	417.12310674801	22.034619262314	0.87708544110914	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	52.538	47.912	50.225	55.0063208	0	0	0.09	0.09	F	F	20.538	371.538	131	418.12184165043	22.999344155311	0.62855544941693	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	52.556	47.912	50.234	58.6871896	0	0	0.09	0.09	F	F	20.556	377.556	131	419.79482787712	24.636578656724	0.62916736745503	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	54.842	51.17	53.006	58.452604	0	0	0.09	0.09	F	F	22.842	380.842	131	419.68867274612	24.531895791314	0.70377026109484	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	51.89	46.976	49.433	56.7551056	0.238976507	0.238976507	0.03	0.268976507	F	F	19.89	381.89	131	418.91862971771	23.775771067436	0.60632126566617	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	51.89	46.976	49.433	56.8354	0.238976507	0.238976507	0.03	0.268976507	F	F	19.89	379.89	131	418.95512884804	23.81148233013	0.60632126566617	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-02 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	224	-61	50.684	50.396	50.54	57.423217133333	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	18.684	372.684	131	419.2221041214	24.073081912056	0.56405851691867	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L