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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 11, 2026

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DAY 223 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 08:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.783
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 379

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 130
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 20:00:01FORECAST2026223-6257.54231.60444.57354.2979752000.030.03FF25.542378.542130417.1124047963222.6483590112430.78325033851505164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026223-6258.31632.55845.43754.2009528000.030.03FF26.316379.316130417.0678465723522.6054746664660.80419938087244164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026223-6258.38832.68445.53652.8528728000.030.03FF26.388379.388130416.4475936953822.0104516974480.80608373646928164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026223-6257.57833.06245.3252.8469688000.030.03FF25.578378.578130416.4448725856622.0078491884540.7842525168114164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026223-6257.77632.68445.2352.788563866667000.030.03FF25.776378.776130416.4179519873621.9821056537110.78971636529729164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2026223-6258.53232.945.71650.028832000.030.03FF26.532375.532130415.1413447361720.769036592060.80981921653674164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026223-6258.87432.95445.91453.7209184000.030.03FF26.874375.874130416.8472257377422.3934157991230.81851257182473164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026223-6259.28832.86446.07653.6746704000.030.03FF27.288377.288130416.8259562335922.3729958150030.82869811503523164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026223-6260.04433.63846.84151.8217000.030.03FF28.044378.044130415.9717144448621.5563613944470.84633676420913164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026223-6259.75633.74646.75151.78972000.030.03FF27.756380.756130415.9569359555521.5422932451960.83976399492617164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026223-6259.8134.10646.95852.039393566667000.030.03FF27.81380.81130416.0722823662921.6521492542410.84101014862647164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026223-6259.934.0746.98551.6697312000.030.03FF27.9378.9130415.9014764347321.4895174930660.84307295869155164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6258.51433.76446.13953.9129168000.030.03FF26.514377.514130416.935499292722.4782088843340.80935470894383164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6257.99234.44846.2253.9192144000.030.03FF25.992373.992130416.9383939603322.4809906555380.79558343281124164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026223-6257.8333.90845.86952.8073928000.030.03FF25.83373.83130416.4266312478121.9904046886840.79119230986018164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026223-6257.0234.84445.93252.7799392000.030.03FF25.02373.02130416.413976279521.9783043500620.76841981701709164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2026223-6257.21833.9845.59952.977158333333000.030.03FF25.218373.218130416.5048665039122.0652442593810.77411061899762164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026223-6257.12834.05245.5952.670676000.030.03FF25.128370.128130416.3636017406221.9301523654730.7715337303922164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2026223-6256.60632.52244.56455.0681528000.030.03FF24.606370.606130417.4657250248122.9890663344290.75626705542451164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6255.86833.31444.59155.052704000.030.03FF23.868370.868130417.458644653622.9822271963560.7337776419405164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2026223-6255.86833.58444.72653.8311664000.030.03FF23.868370.868130416.8979188335122.442101240540.7337776419405164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2026223-6256.37233.0844.72653.8278208000.030.03FF24.372370.372130416.8963807031422.4406236726570.74924897760112164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 04:00:06FORECAST2026223-6256.94833.38645.16753.804280716667000.030.03FF24.948371.948130416.8855578452722.4302275810310.76633082383738164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2026223-6254.1433.67443.90753.2734944000.030.03FF22.14365.14130416.6413500900522.1959406308310.6773258869173163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6252.12434.21443.16956.7988912000.030.03FF20.124366.124130418.2571867894123.756544446070.60598159177393163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6252.17834.03443.10656.905852000.030.03FF20.178364.178130418.3059855973723.8040585071180.60795261097528163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026223-6252.14234.30443.22355.1825728000.030.03FF20.142364.142130417.518156441423.0397260631490.60663890249571163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026223-6254.30235.70845.00554.6488512000.030.03FF22.302368.302130417.2734554512422.8035149766650.68282482150183163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2026223-6254.62635.97845.30254.679883866667000.040.04FF22.626369.626130417.2876924114422.8172425600470.69370158001351163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026223-6253.63636.84245.23953.1052112000.030.03FF21.636366.636130416.563856453822.1217115752660.6599732146503163121123DRYL
2026-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026223-6251.4436.98644.21357.4223344000.030.03FF19.44362.44130418.5414342799924.0336261994810.58079651513066163121123DRYL
2026-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6251.24237.18444.21357.2990392000.030.03FF19.242361.242130418.4852557961623.9788030764860.57343893900088163121123DRYL
2026-05-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026223-6250.59436.6843.63756.2654456000.040.04FF18.594354.594130418.0136144548623.5197222841690.54919373635674163121123DRYL
2026-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026223-6248.59636.57242.58456.2775488000.080.08FF16.596353.596130418.0191444601523.525092801690.47367439436092162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-05 04:00:08FORECAST2026223-6247.89435.49241.69356.230103666667000.070.07FF15.894349.894130417.9974655971223.504040822930.44722554567927162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026223-6251.45838.33644.89755.208393600.240.090.33FF19.458342.458130417.5299863663623.0511598271170.58146402755142163122126DRYL
2026-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6252.73639.05645.89659.08055200.240.090.33FF20.736343.736130419.2952810594124.7721966559850.62814926572039163122126DRYL
2026-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6251.839.4745.63559.266429600.260.10.36FF19.8341.8130419.3795856424524.8551306881550.59410010031828163122126DRYL
2026-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026223-6256.01240.02848.0256.4519928000.060.06FF24.012347.012130418.0988298103923.6025121301450.73824676792347164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2026223-6257.72239.2948.50656.6374768000.060.06FF25.722347.722130418.1835194691723.6848593820780.78823432435151164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 04:00:09FORECAST2026223-6256.98438.82247.90355.91013795000.030.03FF24.984352.984130417.851197053923.3621180698560.76737662178619164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2026223-6249.62236.53643.07956.0522136000.030.03FF17.622342.622130417.9161599303523.4251258633080.51250759941166163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6249.62238.8444.23160.0411728000.030.03FF17.622343.622130419.7305412074325.2011139540730.51250759941166163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026223-6251.22439.3845.30259.9352944000.030.03FF19.224344.224130419.6826194489425.1538013512350.57276875913635163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026223-6259.57643.84451.7156.7843296000.030.03FF27.576360.576130418.2505423140923.7500766501420.83556428947239164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026223-6259.70243.91651.80956.5332128000.030.03FF27.702357.702130418.1359187502123.6385668740290.83851149080979164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-03 04:00:06FORECAST2026223-6264.34646.38255.36455.72614891666700.060.030.09FF32.346369.346130417.7670347963423.2805479935350.9236186024009165121124DRYL
2026-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2026223-6263.33847.1255.22955.813397600.060.030.09FF31.338357.338130417.80694993823.3192254169330.90888961598029165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6263.39247.15655.27459.49416800.060.030.09FF31.392363.392130419.4828219027524.9567814793960.90972840112601165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026223-6266.61447.31856.96659.354636800.060.030.09FF34.614363.614130419.4195779983824.8944967189030.95009401425419165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2026223-6265.342.8954.09557.4840528000.030.03FF33.3368.3130418.5695491744324.0610740652150.93582449220605165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026223-6265.342.8954.09557.5643472000.030.03FF33.3366.3130418.606119491724.0967880024650.93582449220605165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 04:00:09FORECAST2026223-6259.70243.2551.47657.727371533333000.030.03FF27.702359.702130418.6803464565824.1693159136040.83851149080979164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-02 00:00:05FORECAST2026223-6248.12844.18646.15759.9722152000.030.03FF16.128339.128130419.6993316830925.1702986389940.4560216570545162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026223-6248.1144.20446.15762.6958488000.030.03FF16.11356.11130420.927874687626.3904303871190.45534421130086162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-01 16:00:04FORECAST2026223-6253.27646.29249.78463.2008376000.030.03FF21.276349.276130421.154726279126.6173314600380.64736496301085163121123DRYL
2026-05-01 12:00:04FORECAST2026223-6255.61649.9152.76359.6581424000.030.03FF23.616374.616130419.5571162883625.0299981884650.7258649329931164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026223-6255.61649.9152.76358.865924000.030.03FF23.616375.616130419.1978872374724.6764709710810.7258649329931164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-01 04:00:09FORECAST2026223-6254.26653.3353.79858.856565266667000.030.03FF22.266381.266130419.1936392264124.6722977865010.68160626111145163121123DRYL