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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 10, 2026

[ Saturday, May 9, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, May 11, 2026 ]

DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 12:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.490
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 354

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 55 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 12:00:01FORECAST2026222-6347.5736.01441.79254.6699272000.550.55FF15.57353.57129416.5954748470322.7752442817370.49003234698676162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-10 08:00:01FORECAST2026222-6348.18236.1442.16154.6133472000.550.55FF16.182354.182129416.5694171211722.750250210140.5127333477021163121123DRYL
2026-05-10 04:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.96635.94241.95454.556418266667000.550.55FF15.966353.966129416.5431949154322.725104767940.50472215286644163121123DRYL
2026-05-10 00:00:04FORECAST2026222-6348.43435.88842.16151.9025648000.550.55FF16.434350.434129415.3165776365121.5559955832930.52207302502353163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026222-6348.25435.61841.93655.578612000.550.55FF16.254350.254129417.0134539133223.1770289538280.51540276422629163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 16:00:01FORECAST2026222-6348.72235.72642.22455.5438768000.550.55FF16.722350.722129416.9974940581823.1616574358760.53273181924757163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026222-6349.33436.48242.90853.8001304000.550.55FF17.334351.334129416.1944788898422.3913172360340.55529459110677163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026222-6350.10836.01443.06153.7510288000.550.55FF18.108354.108129416.171815515822.3696632415380.58356631690557163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 04:00:08FORECAST2026222-6349.7335.81642.77354.017725566667000.550.55FF17.73353.73129416.2948782799322.4873024897340.5698037519239163121123DRYL
2026-05-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026222-6350.0936.42843.25953.6663656000.550.55FF18.09352.09129416.1327316619122.3323313154950.58291313422365163121123DRYL
2026-05-08 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6349.51435.97842.74655.7836976000.550.55FF17.514351.514129417.1076563289723.26780736730.56190005639799163121123DRYL
2026-05-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6348.236.7742.48555.7966864000.550.55FF16.2349.2129417.1136208505923.2735578957690.51340075999821163121123DRYL
2026-05-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026222-6348.4736.89642.68354.6666608000.550.55FF16.47349.47129416.5939706195222.7738012831820.52340639545826163121123DRYL
2026-05-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.7536.35642.05354.6298592000.550.55FF15.75348.75129416.5770220533822.7575440607310.49670905313002162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2026222-6347.71435.88841.80154.830030333333000.550.55FF15.714348.714129416.6691895108622.8459842998460.49537357828381162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.6636.28441.97254.5323056000.550.55FF15.66345.66129416.5320871649622.7144550694860.49337046790273162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-07 20:00:02FORECAST2026222-6346.81435.67241.24356.8488976000.550.55FF14.814346.814129417.5961484083123.7398806790190.4620423953006162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.71435.92441.81956.7866104000.550.55FF15.714347.714129417.5676203716323.7122497736990.49537357828381162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-07 12:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.98434.39441.18955.5598576000.550.55FF15.984347.984129417.0048369647323.1687293602720.50538986977079163121123DRYL
2026-05-07 08:00:04FORECAST2026222-6346.61634.26840.44255.582588000.550.55FF14.616346.616129417.0152806845623.1787885359940.45473701451741162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-07 04:00:05FORECAST2026222-6346.7635.25841.00955.578629516667000.550.55FF14.76347.76129417.0134619613823.1770367058140.46004864324877162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-07 00:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.1236.73441.92754.8387432000.550.55FF15.12344.12129416.6732002277922.8498346256140.47335688069611162121122.5DRYL
2026-05-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6348.68636.60842.64758.2184096000.550.55FF16.686346.686129418.2222566518124.3482346415910.53140059514802163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6347.91237.47242.69258.3526272000.550.55FF15.912344.912129418.2835006371224.4079411765890.50271893025702163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 12:00:02FORECAST2026222-6348.88438.01243.44856.636236000.550.55FF16.884344.884129417.4987290875123.64555655030.53871758481787163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6351.1739.7445.45556.3352304000.550.55FF19.17347.17129417.3607497942223.5121139995740.62163711599095163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 04:00:11FORECAST2026222-6352.23239.45245.84256.39037106666700.010.550.56FF20.232348.232129417.3860338622923.5365533275390.65856216434853163121123DRYL
2026-05-06 00:00:02FORECAST2026222-6353.85240.47847.16554.8248496000.550.55FF21.852345.852129416.6668046675722.8436948992120.71198628186773164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 20:00:02FORECAST2026222-6354.64440.76647.70558.9825648000.550.55FF22.644343.644129418.5706646924424.6883713536010.73658568689079164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6354.6841.01847.84958.8576952000.550.55FF22.68342.68129418.5137780043624.6327563827810.73767785474301164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026222-6353.90640.147.00357.722651200.010.550.56FF21.906336.906129417.9958591924924.1278291832120.71369737429893164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6354.73440.44247.58857.646981600.050.550.6FF22.734337.734129417.9612781524324.0942061111660.73931175264972164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 04:00:08FORECAST2026222-6354.28439.48846.88657.49169006666700.040.550.59FF22.284335.284129417.8902890344124.0252189790360.7255379980637164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-05 00:00:04FORECAST2026222-6353.94237.09445.51856.846753600.30.550.85FF21.942323.942129417.5951665141423.738929535380.71483541758098164122127DRYL
2026-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6353.5137.97645.74360.873104800.30.550.85FF21.51323.51129419.4297348017325.5319902028220.70103898236302164122127DRYL
2026-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6353.88837.32845.60861.016276800.330.550.88FF21.888322.888129419.4946249419625.5960001515710.71312754606943164122127DRYL
2026-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2026222-6354.0538.44446.24758.541024800.030.550.58FF22.05324.05129418.3694319413324.4917752908390.71823656455954164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-04 08:00:04FORECAST2026222-6352.10636.08644.09658.828943200.030.550.58FF20.106323.106129418.5006769358424.619952552620.65425171504188163121123DRYL
2026-05-04 04:00:09FORECAST2026222-6351.836.1443.9758.00861635000.550.55FF19.8328.8129418.1264853855924.2549388765070.64370089301204163121123DRYL
2026-05-04 00:00:03FORECAST2026222-6350.82838.55244.6957.5433672000.550.55FF18.828325.828129417.9139155437924.0481739001260.60948608759468163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6353.16840.11846.64361.6284632000.550.55FF21.168327.168129419.771821426825.8698922491990.689906701786163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 16:00:02FORECAST2026222-6353.16839.88446.52661.6431248000.550.55FF21.168326.168129419.7784548793125.8764556824760.689906701786163121123DRYL
2026-05-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026222-6357.3838.64248.01159.3268872000.550.55FF25.38334.38129418.7274337810724.8417952314750.81255590553045164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6357.97435.2446.60759.0892512000.550.55FF25.974330.974129418.6192533918224.7358982208260.82706280124654164121123.5DRYL
2026-05-03 04:00:05FORECAST2026222-6361.66435.47448.56958.73846811666700.060.550.61FF29.664337.664129418.4594450298324.5796667700020.90080376241805165121124DRYL
2026-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2026222-6363.15840.13651.64758.865765600.060.550.61FF31.158327.158129418.5174551718324.6363504156530.92297329327928165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6363.2341.64852.43962.5499800.060.550.61FF31.23333.23129420.1882700530126.2827678880510.92393818307176165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6363.06841.84652.45762.597113600.060.550.61FF31.068330.068129420.2095443112526.3039045810550.92175417840963165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 12:00:02FORECAST2026222-6360.15245.44652.79960.0267088000.550.55FF28.152336.152129419.0456385185725.1539305172640.87396512737114165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6360.15245.44652.79960.1070032000.550.55FF28.152334.152129419.0821117483825.1897698319220.87396512737114165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 04:00:09FORECAST2026222-6362.13244.92453.52860.026585933333000.550.55FF30.132333.132129419.0455827014525.1538756800120.90819881531137165121124DRYL
2026-05-02 00:00:05FORECAST2026222-6360.18846.27453.23160.5897736000.550.55FF28.188324.188129419.3012504408825.405367834410.87465774074201165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026222-6360.27846.27453.27663.3139976000.550.55FF28.278341.278129420.5328038620226.6256129344410.87637767066985165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 16:00:04FORECAST2026222-6362.18645.75253.96963.9526136000.550.55FF30.186329.186129420.8202752520226.9125564582380.90902517843275165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 12:00:04FORECAST2026222-6364.5843.6154.09560.5445296000.550.55FF32.58351.58129419.2807247360725.3851542494920.94037759980106165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 08:00:04FORECAST2026222-6364.5843.6154.09559.7523112000.550.55FF32.58352.58129418.9209389605425.0314943129670.94037759980106165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 04:00:09FORECAST2026222-6367.15444.97856.06659.214052466667000.550.55FF35.154360.154129418.6760755244124.791507102640.96392709636207165121124DRYL
2026-05-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026222-6355.11246.3150.71161.4320192000.550.55FF23.112346.112129419.6829190306825.7819691398050.75060082476255164121123.5DRYL
2026-04-30 20:00:02FORECAST2026222-6355.16645.48250.32464.030724000.550.55FF23.166339.166129420.8554044581326.9476762467670.7521921006961164121123.5DRYL
2026-04-30 16:00:03FORECAST2026222-6351.54844.22247.88564.0634912000.550.55FF19.548336.548129420.8701390343626.962410448370.63492821845141163121123DRYL
2026-04-30 12:00:04FORECAST2026222-6338.40835.6937.04964.6927592000.550.55FF6.408313.408129421.1528670617427.2455410152150.19022533105314161121122DRYL
2026-04-30 08:00:03FORECAST2026222-6338.40835.6937.04964.7356616000.550.55FF6.408315.408129421.1721265178927.2648562576150.19022533105314161121122DRYL
2026-04-30 04:00:09FORECAST2026222-6343.84442.8943.36765.146020516667000.560.56FF11.844315.844129421.3562360725727.4496820000090.35514127579858162121122.5DRYL