Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 9, 2026

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DAY 221 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2026 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.51°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.95°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.853 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 27 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 340 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 56 in SWE DAY: 128 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.51 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 23.31 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -64 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-10 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2026	221	-64	59.39996	32.50994	45.95495	55.971016666667	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	27.39996	340.39996	128	416.50566467097	23.31224549906	0.85292791478831	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-10 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.346	33.512	44.429	53.3598688	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.346	336.346	128	415.29860180814	22.160278905306	0.750770129809	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.184	33.854	44.519	55.3177536	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.184	336.184	128	416.20442934375	23.023494069666	0.74602973925724	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.164	33.692	45.428	55.2889224	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.164	338.164	128	416.19112306315	23.010758706607	0.80060332382786	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.434	33.512	45.473	55.564770366667	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.434	338.434	128	416.31839349322	23.13263593387	0.80745703624083	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.56	32.666	45.113	55.2461776	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.56	335.56	128	416.17139353374	22.991878719204	0.81060565214645	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.02	32.558	44.789	57.2974832	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.02	336.02	128	417.1157945898	23.899685232964	0.79688883609911	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.21	34.25	45.23	57.27554	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.21	335.21	128	417.1057181697	23.889955245257	0.77523886815683	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.228	34.7	45.464	56.197568	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.228	335.228	128	416.61001627049	23.412469718842	0.77573374370917	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.778	34.826	45.302	56.1535832	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.778	334.778	128	416.58976116971	23.393007814111	0.763177972746	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.58	34.268	44.924	56.263521533333	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.58	334.58	128	416.64038378287	23.441655204624	0.75753353998347	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.868	33.998	44.933	55.9775064	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.868	331.868	128	416.50865473652	23.315115886169	0.76571957779721	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.588	33.494	45.041	58.1812336	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.588	333.588	128	417.52115047231	24.29189558857	0.7855007143703	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.192	33.728	44.96	58.1500408	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.192	334.192	128	417.50685854185	24.278040858488	0.77474337505542	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.174	33.476	44.825	56.9004592	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.174	334.174	128	416.9333924367	23.723701485462	0.77424726498363	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.03	34.07	45.05	56.8526368	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.03	334.03	128	416.91140928756	23.702512930002	0.77025624426271	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.11	34.934	46.022	56.833131116667	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.11	335.11	128	416.90244208784	23.693871154037	0.79921519880781	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.678	34.556	45.617	56.1193208	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.678	330.678	128	416.57398168833	23.377848915301	0.78790331985349	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.362	34.538	45.95	59.5668832	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.362	332.362	128	418.15488696147	24.908183311143	0.8056435779936	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.696	35.042	45.869	59.6709904	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.696	330.696	128	418.20241108923	24.954552057362	0.78838194935662	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.48	34.754	45.617	58.0626424	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.48	330.48	128	417.46680827388	24.239226002676	0.7825968444302	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	55.742	34.772	45.257	58.0134424	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	23.742	329.742	128	417.4442584898	24.217378445109	0.76215710830303	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.084	34.628	45.356	58.050182266667	0	0.01	1.79	1.8	F	F	24.084	330.084	128	417.46109770058	24.233692810762	0.77175748060808	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.21	34.736	45.473	56.6831336	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.21	326.21	128	416.83347002182	23.627427270198	0.77523886815683	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	54.5	34.286	44.393	60.9693592	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	22.5	322.5	128	418.79405188662	25.533604980299	0.72550588194886	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	53.33	34.97	44.15	60.8599384	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	21.33	322.33	128	418.74426626155	25.484750250031	0.68860912992739	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	51.53	33.278	42.404	59.6626072	0	0.01	1.79	1.8	F	F	19.53	316.53	128	418.19858468879	24.950817889883	0.62806895994088	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.016	33.332	42.674	59.591956	0	0.05	1.79	1.84	F	F	20.016	317.016	128	418.16633364868	24.919349755473	0.64480714703014	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.232	33.26	42.746	59.393368466667	0	0.04	1.79	1.83	F	F	20.232	315.232	128	418.07565090159	24.83092118094	0.65215983995642	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	48.938	32.774	40.856	58.6161824	0.24015761	0.30015761	1.79	2.09015761	F	F	16.938	303.938	128	417.72031756808	24.485170326756	0.53542192759263	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	49.352	33.854	41.603	62.6248216	0.238582806	0.298582806	1.79	2.088582806	F	F	17.352	304.352	128	419.5455887535	26.273967648755	0.55048796512974	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	47.876	33.008	40.442	62.7280432	0.260236361	0.330236361	1.79	2.120236361	F	F	15.876	302.876	128	419.59234409436	26.32020668674	0.49659303927339	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	48.416	32.684	40.55	60.4174144	0	0.03	1.79	1.82	F	F	16.416	304.416	128	418.54278003813	25.287272585692	0.51635566773005	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	49.19	32.216	40.703	60.4838344	0	0.03	1.79	1.82	F	F	17.19	305.19	128	418.57303626848	25.316902209968	0.54460000570385	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	49.928	32.252	41.09	59.63457795	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	17.928	310.928	128	418.18579051779	24.938333122215	0.57132430535499	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.466	33.89	43.178	59.1170784	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	20.466	309.466	128	417.94941005957	24.707948041725	0.66006114068129	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.52	33.62	43.07	63.5242376	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	20.52	307.52	128	419.95257731074	26.67716730182	0.6618747357892	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.916	33.602	43.259	63.5426384	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	20.916	306.916	128	419.96089402872	26.685423231408	0.67505762743096	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	53.096	32.468	42.782	61.4794856	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	21.096	311.096	128	419.0259729499	25.761501269999	0.68097943492251	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	49.262	32.864	41.063	61.1896976	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	17.262	307.262	128	418.894262194	25.632013230026	0.54721816437479	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	52.988	33.584	43.286	61.144544916667	0.059842552	0.059842552	1.79	1.849842552	F	F	20.988	309.988	128	418.87373123963	25.611843674194	0.67743176594746	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	49.856	33.674	41.765	61.4600816	0.060629954	0.060629954	1.79	1.850629954	F	F	17.856	297.856	128	419.01715671872	25.752828643733	0.56872938261635	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	53.6	33.998	43.799	65.2055992	0.058661449	0.058661449	1.79	1.848661449	F	F	21.6	303.6	128	420.71090953605	27.432706946275	0.69731293260673	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	53.24	34.232	43.736	65.2496824	0.058661449	0.058661449	1.79	1.848661449	F	F	21.24	301.24	128	420.7307485231	27.452547717047	0.68568396532352	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.668	35.744	46.706	62.6950216	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.668	309.668	128	419.57738793675	26.305413399566	0.81327914247556	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	58.136	35.51	46.823	62.775316	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	26.136	308.136	128	419.61375272851	26.341385925478	0.82459282687911	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.668	35.852	46.76	62.773520333333	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.668	304.668	128	419.61293956427	26.340581393867	0.81327914247556	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	59.522	35.42	47.471	63.3242112	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	27.522	297.522	128	419.86214511671	26.587439152255	0.85549183471559	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	59.63	39.956	49.793	66.0542408	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	27.63	314.63	128	421.09243807089	27.814941303394	0.85773559670505	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.83	39.668	48.749	66.83534	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.83	300.83	128	421.44287510655	28.167277848324	0.81724541970684	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.21	40.442	48.326	63.3154736	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.21	321.21	128	419.85819378901	26.583520384592	0.77523886815683	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.21	40.442	48.326	62.5232552	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.21	322.21	128	419.49957118668	26.228478745595	0.77523886815683	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	59.054	42.908	50.981	62.141550866667	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	27.054	327.054	128	419.32652292204	26.057600453902	0.84549523736843	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.74	42.908	50.324	62.1772024	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.74	324.74	128	419.3426928923	26.073555490926	0.81504845285646	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.182	42.17	49.676	64.7498312	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	25.182	318.182	128	420.50566768163	27.227671001029	0.80106474783324	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	56.57	42.044	49.307	64.690988	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	24.57	318.57	128	420.4791520367	27.201211778656	0.78501830504753	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	54.662	38.3	46.481	64.8940856	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	22.662	308.662	128	420.57065415413	27.292548031526	0.7304397281754	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	54.662	38.3	46.481	64.936988	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	22.662	310.662	128	420.58997705178	27.311846292732	0.7304397281754	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	57.506	38.642	48.074	65.332390116667	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	25.506	305.506	128	420.76796390511	27.489776766444	0.80926013619782	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	37.238	33.872	35.555	66.665384	0.303543471	0.423543471	1.79	2.213543471	F	F	5.238	279.238	128	421.3666841967	28.09057180678	0.16235893196819	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	37.238	33.872	35.555	68.7125568	0.303543471	0.423543471	1.79	2.213543471	F	F	5.238	278.238	128	422.28224303781	29.016092610367	0.16235893196819	16	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-29 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	39.704	35.222	37.463	68.2805808	0.013779535	0.063779535	1.79	1.853779535	F	F	7.704	286.704	128	422.08944614023	28.820512532006	0.22409747118127	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	44.15	41.198	42.674	66.4328256	0.158661503	0.158661503	1.79	1.948661503	F	F	12.15	298.15	128	421.26237545634	27.985649920533	0.36300790271488	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 08:00:07	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	44.15	41.198	42.674	66.2854224	0.158661503	0.158661503	1.79	1.948661503	F	F	12.15	301.15	128	421.19622921861	27.919169967043	0.36300790271488	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	221	-64	38.21	36.59	37.4	66.894943166667	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	6.21	289.21	128	421.4695872892	28.194184088189	0.18524216846107	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L