Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 8, 2026

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DAY 220 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/09/2026 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.87°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.28°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.08°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.508 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 324 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 57 in SWE DAY: 127 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.44 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 23.87 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -65 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-09 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2026	220	-65	47.87006	36.28004	42.07505	57.319439166667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	15.87006	323.87006	127	416.43762779632	23.869971273182	0.50828115857749	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-09 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.194	35.402	40.298	56.998288	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.194	321.194	127	416.28954420142	23.727791331781	0.40720474064407	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.806	36.41	41.108	57.9375752	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.806	321.806	127	416.72231206598	24.143880292841	0.43002531339221	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.346	36.086	41.216	57.9027416	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.346	322.346	127	416.70628123619	24.128436125516	0.45035976605226	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.328	35.762	41.045	57.978928733333	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.328	322.328	127	416.74134160395	24.162216545089	0.44967954147213	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.382	35.528	40.955	57.72204	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.382	319.382	127	416.6230974807	24.048335097705	0.45172065076815	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.382	34.808	40.595	59.93728	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.382	320.382	127	417.64022574218	25.032219149572	0.45172065076815	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.94	35.186	41.063	59.8940824	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.94	320.94	127	417.62044621143	25.012993417312	0.47287710362417	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.796	35.294	41.045	58.6622128	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.796	320.796	127	417.05547730237	24.465397158917	0.4674076185827	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.706	35.888	41.297	58.6357432	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.706	320.706	127	417.0433182129	24.453644910007	0.46399224662468	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.994	36.23	41.612	58.673604716667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.994	320.994	127	417.06071004762	24.470455244187	0.47492953547334	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.544	37.094	41.819	57.9186632	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.544	316.544	127	416.71360871856	24.135495154227	0.45785142633947	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	48.146	36.896	42.521	61.3716376	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	16.146	318.146	127	418.29576558535	25.671496135119	0.51878523988909	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	47.156	35.996	41.576	61.4778112	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	15.156	317.156	127	418.34419489431	25.718885430328	0.48109060658624	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.634	36.248	41.441	59.8393528	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.634	316.634	127	417.59538323465	24.988637465029	0.46126184604169	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.328	36.86	41.594	59.7677176	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.328	317.328	127	417.56257321029	24.956761955962	0.44967954147213	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.184	36.932	41.558	59.826302266667	0.010629927	0.010629927	1.82	1.830629927	F	F	14.184	317.184	127	417.5894063342	24.982830046708	0.44424323219625	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.112	36.914	41.513	58.4466584	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.112	313.112	127	416.95643633721	24.369710402282	0.44152894066649	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.528	36.788	40.658	62.5570432	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	12.528	310.528	127	418.83572810045	26.201124736483	0.38272605896293	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.654	36.878	40.766	62.3497144	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	12.654	311.654	127	418.74140530796	26.108407028406	0.38732462532511	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	43.718	34.646	39.182	60.8769616	0.009842525	0.009842525	1.82	1.829842525	F	F	11.718	307.718	127	418.06995515542	25.45082860611	0.35358269719442	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	41.414	35.258	38.336	60.825892	0.048031522	0.048031522	1.82	1.868031522	F	F	9.414	308.414	127	418.04662666732	25.428058964631	0.2757026934128	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	41.36	34.664	38.012	60.692740466667	0.037007894	0.037007894	1.82	1.857007894	F	F	9.36	306.36	127	417.98578908893	25.36870301593	0.27398266696786	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	41.342	34.232	37.787	59.6667992	0.063385861	0.063385861	1.82	1.883385861	F	F	9.342	298.342	127	417.5163408991	24.911863675146	0.27341050424694	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	41.036	33.386	37.211	63.6775048	0.063385861	0.063385861	1.82	1.883385861	F	F	9.036	298.036	127	419.34461560417	26.702818772989	0.26377509819263	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	40.964	33.404	37.184	63.6616624	0.068110273	0.068110273	1.82	1.888110273	F	F	8.964	297.964	127	419.33743044522	26.695717928687	0.26153334029527	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	40.766	34.034	37.4	61.4694088	0.032677183	0.032677183	1.82	1.852677183	F	F	8.766	298.766	127	418.34036275619	25.7151347758	0.25541926442243	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	39.722	33.44	36.581	61.5191992	0.032677183	0.032677183	1.82	1.852677183	F	F	7.722	298.722	127	418.36306979956	25.737361028922	0.22445563394655	16	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-05-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	42.872	33.998	38.435	60.73400115	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	10.872	303.872	127	418.00464349447	25.387094498698	0.32403642616106	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.32	34.826	40.073	60.5601144	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.32	300.32	127	417.92517114142	25.309596174964	0.41188009959353	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.528	34.016	39.272	64.9854776	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	12.528	297.528	127	419.93683709392	27.289795920382	0.38272605896293	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.384	34.232	39.308	65.0276912	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	12.384	297.384	127	419.95591773403	27.308763736021	0.37749075543207	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.788	33.314	39.551	62.5946528	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.788	300.788	127	418.85283300396	26.217947656179	0.42935037700875	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.734	35.204	40.469	62.126564	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.734	300.734	127	418.63982907122	26.008654133742	0.42732681423233	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.202	35.618	40.91	62.195555316667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.202	300.202	127	418.67123950284	26.039490235996	0.44492221896025	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	47.426	35.924	41.675	62.7316064	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	15.426	291.426	127	418.91510590353	26.279217538555	0.49136837593365	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.112	36.14	41.126	66.7668136	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.112	293.112	127	420.74022917152	28.091484455116	0.44152894066649	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.238	36.428	41.333	66.811192	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.238	291.238	127	420.76019769668	28.111490354271	0.44628067538921	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	48.056	37.022	42.539	64.6206112	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	16.056	295.056	127	419.77183138773	27.125912308819	0.51536032944678	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.618	37.13	40.874	64.7681128	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	12.618	292.618	127	419.83855533004	27.192150909405	0.38600910406974	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	45.05	37.148	41.099	64.796624333333	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	13.05	290.05	127	419.85144994735	27.204956678044	0.40187765094777	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.112	35.888	41	65.4897984	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	14.112	281.112	127	420.16465747938	27.51649871313	0.44152894066649	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	57.344	36.5	46.922	68.3899616	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.344	298.344	127	421.46911918705	28.824256876788	0.82262347061537	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	51.134	35.762	43.448	69.0348752	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.134	286.134	127	421.75789060028	29.116003342206	0.63020230349645	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	55.58	39.722	47.651	65.4345176	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.58	307.58	127	420.13969933331	27.491638550484	0.77545101857309	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	52.502	41.702	47.102	64.6422992	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.502	308.502	127	419.78164375651	27.135650614376	0.67831927260803	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	56.372	41.558	48.965	64.612079666667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.372	311.372	127	419.76797129163	27.12208160261	0.79745409178504	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	58.046	41.702	49.874	64.5748168	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	26.046	310.046	127	419.75111071025	27.105351075711	0.83951760609844	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	57.47	42.17	49.82	67.0596728	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.47	304.47	127	420.8719626563	28.223536106425	0.82573549034016	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	57.434	42.602	50.018	66.9701288	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.434	305.434	127	420.83169450876	28.183152784374	0.82484989401434	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	51.908	38.894	45.401	66.7334768	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.908	296.908	127	420.72522744918	28.076457205154	0.65773494711234	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	51.908	38.894	45.401	66.7763792	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.908	298.908	127	420.74453350357	28.095796515561	0.65773494711234	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-30 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	52.25	39.038	45.644	67.416108516667	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	20.25	291.25	127	421.03216188045	28.384349914339	0.66964861808505	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	48.704	36.572	42.638	66.79724	0.118504001	0.118504001	1.82	1.938504001	F	F	16.704	284.704	127	420.75392009097	28.105200581257	0.53997901224516	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-04-29 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	48.704	36.572	42.638	68.8444128	0.118504001	0.118504001	1.82	1.938504001	F	F	16.704	283.704	127	421.67265692481	29.029806459804	0.53997901224516	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	51.494	37.454	44.474	68.4847608	0.050000027	0.050000027	1.82	1.870000027	F	F	19.494	290.494	127	421.51159685889	28.867120885307	0.64310141535393	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	54.86	37.544	46.202	66.8882208	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.86	296.86	127	420.7948522671	28.146218989945	0.75432423316631	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 08:00:07	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	54.86	37.544	46.202	66.7408176	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.86	299.86	127	420.72853095399	28.079766143516	0.75432423316631	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	55.418	36.464	45.941	66.983503166667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.418	294.418	127	420.83770957475	28.189184051953	0.77078921227544	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	46.85	39.362	43.106	68.6817184	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	14.85	284.85	127	421.59981702284	28.956199910254	0.46945801031322	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	47.642	40.226	43.934	69.1051336	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	15.642	288.642	127	421.78932147114	29.147807411316	0.49959504788171	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	44.456	38.444	41.45	69.0238552	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	12.456	287.456	127	421.75296017272	29.111015253133	0.38010566214676	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	49.712	47.03	48.371	67.4134408	0	0.03	1.8	1.83	F	F	17.712	302.712	127	421.03096341986	28.383145927472	0.57793796540439	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	49.712	47.03	48.371	67.495408	0	0.03	1.8	1.83	F	F	17.712	303.712	127	421.06778313448	28.420141818317	0.57793796540439	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	220	-65	40.838	38.858	39.848	69.491914283333	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	8.838	278.838	127	421.96225168173	29.322964624669	0.25763390199415	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L