Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 7, 2026

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DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/08/2026 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.59°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.48°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.54°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.696 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 21 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 338 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 59 in SWE DAY: 126 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.54 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 24.60 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-08 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2026	219	-66	52.59002	32.48006	42.53504	59.048438333333	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.59002	337.59002	126	416.54495968436	24.596329364983	0.69639844123216	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.072	33.152	41.612	58.805424	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.072	335.072	126	416.4329825681	24.488518107502	0.60927284368045	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.522	33.188	41.855	59.7701968	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.522	335.522	126	416.87712723649	24.916827936343	0.62540776078863	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.9	33.656	42.278	59.7700984	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.9	335.9	126	416.87708199235	24.916784211387	0.63879477008101	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-07 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.332	33.332	42.332	59.844958316667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.332	336.332	126	416.91149917594	24.950051289923	0.65388791763631	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.178	33.674	42.926	59.1059576	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.178	332.178	126	416.57145352762	24.621854669574	0.68273011279945	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.466	33.98	43.223	62.59288	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.466	332.466	126	418.17035010486	26.174486543671	0.69231183682628	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.34	33.836	43.088	62.6188576	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.34	332.34	126	418.18220883379	26.186092185817	0.68813543401554	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.908	33.656	42.782	60.9934864	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.908	331.908	126	417.43872053573	25.461042923829	0.67363455286809	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.944	33.854	42.899	60.948616	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.944	332.944	126	417.41815204437	25.441058660382	0.67485342648464	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.314	33.566	42.44	60.981715066667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.314	333.314	126	417.43332480958	25.455800072869	0.65326369304353	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.232	34.07	43.151	59.6364128	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.232	329.232	126	416.8156031552	24.857387371245	0.68453629319686	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.16	34.214	43.187	63.6663064	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.16	328.16	126	418.65971611244	26.654517763351	0.68212708222056	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.466	34.916	43.691	63.4755088	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.466	329.466	126	418.57283057603	26.56912339067	0.69231183682628	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.594	34.502	42.548	61.7422912	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.594	325.594	126	417.78162522772	25.794794762819	0.62796991595565	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.918	34.772	42.845	61.598824	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.918	328.918	126	417.7159769267	25.730812944696	0.63942817761753	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.09	35.15	42.62	61.459178066667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.09	327.09	126	417.65205419683	25.668551968792	0.60992207286065	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.604	35.798	42.701	60.3801992	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.604	318.604	126	417.15738800412	25.188046185441	0.59229100799633	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.514	36.59	43.052	64.3755544	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.514	318.514	126	418.98232500154	26.972219455775	0.58900422118701	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.928	36.536	43.232	64.37644	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.928	318.928	126	418.9827274628	26.972616415545	0.604068186707	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.522	36.788	43.655	62.1229816	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.522	319.522	126	417.95570716337	25.964654705725	0.62540776078863	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.378	36.518	43.448	62.0894272	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.378	321.378	126	417.94037018595	25.949678188601	0.62026691599482	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.126	35.708	42.917	61.50604755	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.126	323.126	126	417.67351116495	25.689446838087	0.61121961038061	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.198	34.484	42.341	61.5245328	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.198	317.198	126	417.68197305682	25.697688251303	0.61381095427191	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.342	34.988	42.665	65.8875104	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.342	315.342	126	419.66811706828	27.650887427885	0.61897833737707	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.406	35.384	42.395	65.9197856	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.406	315.406	126	419.68272774234	27.665395432798	0.58505183449504	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.982	34.556	42.269	63.6111248	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.982	316.982	126	418.634591807	26.629817265032	0.60602216215364	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.99	35.132	43.061	63.268496	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.99	316.99	126	418.47851331218	26.476506145578	0.64195797045807	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.252	34.862	42.557	63.361890516667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.252	316.252	126	418.52107100106	26.518286279688	0.61575114388147	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.134	36.86	43.997	64.042688	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.134	306.134	126	418.83098960175	26.823062391796	0.6469988111176	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.872	37.382	44.627	67.9797904	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.872	308.872	126	420.61279859154	28.59316988781	0.67241382356105	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.494	36.464	43.979	68.0476864	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.494	307.494	126	420.64337016858	28.62380813947	0.65948696681766	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	52.052	36.122	44.087	65.9124064	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.052	309.052	126	419.67938735476	27.66207833703	0.67849880265703	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.55	36.986	43.268	65.9076832	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.55	309.55	126	419.67724924208	27.659955189294	0.59031969951882	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.748	37.274	43.511	65.975062733333	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.748	306.748	126	419.7077483892	27.690245029644	0.5975362924498	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	48.236	36.122	42.179	66.679356	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	16.236	297.236	126	420.02623242701	28.00707868134	0.54176440950161	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50	36.518	43.259	69.991028	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18	303	126	421.51616855563	29.50234995583	0.60667289747954	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.01	36.086	42.548	70.4233976	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.01	297.01	126	421.70977026454	29.698234823145	0.57048892275331	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	53.816	37.022	45.419	67.2124088	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	21.816	313.816	126	420.26690238123	28.247150847957	0.73542254886009	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	56.696	40.766	48.731	66.6056744	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.696	317.696	126	419.99294001132	27.973913012693	0.81594922988981	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.922	40.91	48.416	66.815058866667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.922	316.922	126	420.08753233144	28.068173201878	0.79595611609343	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	57.146	40.55	48.848	66.9240184	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.146	314.146	126	420.13673640562	28.117238677725	0.82699305636266	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	56.246	40.514	48.38	69.3594776	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.246	309.246	126	421.23299748419	29.216500653385	0.80447778276315	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	56.408	40.586	48.497	69.2960096	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.408	310.408	126	421.20451492709	29.187792109951	0.80865650734071	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	54.536	40.406	47.471	68.4942464	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.536	306.536	126	420.84431171718	28.825413982795	0.75708995180674	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.346	41.9	48.623	68.5371488	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.346	309.346	126	420.86360479542	28.844791506368	0.78027242978009	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	54.338	41.252	47.795	69.119018916667	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	22.338	301.338	126	421.12506249446	29.107751160837	0.75122860799343	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.982	38.354	44.168	68.1749384	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.982	297.982	126	420.70065381254	28.68124115851	0.60602216215364	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	49.982	37.85	43.916	70.2221112	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	17.982	296.982	126	421.61966690252	29.607023133336	0.60602216215364	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.386	37.904	44.645	70.02354	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.386	301.386	126	421.53073381569	29.517074200572	0.65575807972256	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.706	40.64	48.173	68.5745016	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.706	303.706	126	420.88040052351	28.861663699108	0.79015428890372	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 08:00:07	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.706	40.64	48.173	68.4270984	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.706	306.706	126	420.81411124601	28.795088598339	0.79015428890372	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.688	40.244	47.966	68.610547166667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.688	300.688	126	420.89660694191	28.877946502878	0.78966647366805	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	54.482	39.038	46.76	69.12934	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	22.482	300.482	126	421.12969668622	29.112417986319	0.75549883959794	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.472	40.658	48.065	69.5886712	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	23.472	303.472	126	421.33581455734	29.320199464015	0.78376105220313	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	55.832	41.432	48.632	69.4158808	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	23.832	304.832	126	421.25830571533	29.242016335545	0.79355036653339	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	64.328	44.87	54.599	68.1145408	0.031889781	0.031889781	1.8	1.831889781	F	F	32.328	315.328	126	420.67346759259	28.653980071813	0.94722481587363	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	64.328	44.87	54.599	68.196508	0.031889781	0.031889781	1.8	1.831889781	F	F	32.328	316.328	126	420.71036172891	28.690977549329	0.94722481587363	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.8	41.828	46.814	69.620621483333	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	19.8	299.8	126	421.35014281634	29.334658804965	0.66996684250684	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-28 00:00:05	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.702	41.252	45.977	73.1815704	0	0.02	1.79	1.81	F	F	18.702	289.702	126	422.93980284995	30.951398957226	0.63180251925799	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	50.702	39.866	45.284	73.8778488	0	0.02	1.79	1.81	F	F	18.702	283.702	126	423.2489547501	31.268722283786	0.63180251925799	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	51.998	40.028	46.013	74.2272672	0	0.02	1.79	1.81	F	F	19.998	283.998	126	423.40389275795	31.428113881265	0.67667823326123	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	45.338	37.994	41.666	74.780472	0	0	1.85	1.85	F	F	13.338	272.338	126	423.64891206803	31.680665606734	0.43350036406306	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-27 08:00:05	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	45.338	37.994	41.666	74.870016	0	0	1.85	1.85	F	F	13.338	270.338	126	423.68853953551	31.72156773404	0.43350036406306	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-27 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	219	-66	41.702	40.388	41.045	74.218052683333	0	0	1.85	1.85	F	F	9.702	277.702	126	423.39980865105	31.423909304577	0.3053127324972	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L