Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 6, 2026

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DAY 218 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/07/2026 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.51°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.57°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.04°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.799 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 24 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 345 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 61 in SWE DAY: 125 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 416.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 25.48 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-05-07 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	218	-67	55.50998	38.57	47.03999	61.133407916667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.50998	344.50998	125	416.81603188945	25.481384503704	0.79928004624397	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	50.522	36.266	43.394	60.4709624	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	18.522	339.522	125	416.51108141724	25.186825943565	0.64912284870585	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	51.368	38.264	44.816	62.376892	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	19.368	340.368	125	417.38707419209	26.035308449076	0.67735022054326	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	52.016	38.354	45.185	62.3120464	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	20.016	341.016	125	417.3573398522	26.006389926251	0.69831097539761	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-05-06 04:00:10	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	53.15	38.372	45.761	62.305391866667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	21.15	342.15	125	417.35428820145	26.003422473625	0.73343514617251	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-06 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.5	39.002	46.751	61.0563248	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.5	336.5	125	416.7805737861	25.447090083415	0.77237282729822	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.238	39.596	47.417	65.0916304	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.238	336.238	125	418.62750785532	27.249147016592	0.79222821310845	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.976	40.082	48.029	64.9490488	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.976	336.976	125	418.56257126214	27.185240866758	0.81102434657305	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.392	38.93	46.661	63.0575056	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.392	335.392	125	417.69886786924	26.339048699778	0.76938028339111	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.788	39.488	47.138	62.9435584	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.788	337.788	125	417.64670544834	26.288169794955	0.78024529692732	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.122	39.632	46.877	62.728242866667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.122	337.122	125	417.54809769744	26.192058480879	0.76180376607827	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.446	40.784	47.615	61.6840976	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.446	329.446	125	417.06914635159	25.7265339295	0.77087929097519	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.418	41.018	48.218	65.74666	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.418	329.418	125	418.9255289901	27.542954319832	0.79691141245181	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.166	40.964	48.065	65.736328	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.166	329.166	125	418.92083205131	27.538317221758	0.79033725073598	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.238	40.28	47.759	63.5574568	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.238	329.238	125	417.9275557374	26.562412569309	0.79222821310845	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.004	40.622	47.813	63.4248136	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.004	331.004	125	417.8669103347	26.503130897586	0.78604583708303	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.202	40.64	47.921	62.80935555	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.202	333.202	125	417.58525108994	26.228260508144	0.79128399156325	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.724	40.514	48.119	62.8073736	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.724	326.724	125	417.58434335562	26.227375862647	0.8047269758271	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.616	40.604	48.11	67.171532	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.616	324.616	125	419.57209817051	28.183300618568	0.80198960321814	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.598	39.866	47.732	67.1728112	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.598	325.598	125	419.57267758689	28.183876256222	0.80153113654042	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.554	37.166	45.86	64.7938928	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.554	326.554	125	418.49188112734	27.115718083435	0.77386087616814	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.374	38.534	46.454	64.6417664	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.374	326.374	125	418.42254424569	27.047572361624	0.76887940120616	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.572	38.336	46.454	64.692455316667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.572	325.572	125	418.44565045341	27.07027654441	0.77435567027239	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.328	40.82	48.074	65.5601144	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.328	315.328	125	418.84070616986	27.459244611873	0.79457772251083	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.796	40.928	48.362	69.5458264	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.796	316.796	125	420.64430530119	29.254055832625	0.80653907851095	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.896	40.154	47.525	69.5953216	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.896	315.896	125	420.66658809788	29.276426485047	0.78315675934354	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.31	39.938	47.624	67.4759824	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.31	317.31	125	419.70994654694	28.320340966306	0.79410908454465	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.76	39.83	47.795	67.3112608	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.76	319.76	125	419.63537750165	28.24618633592	0.80563431013071	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.49	41	48.245	67.406192333333	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.49	317.49	125	419.678356572	28.288920021229	0.79876694072946	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.094	39.308	47.201	67.9647552	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.094	309.094	125	419.93102918984	28.540509599771	0.78843622542514	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.004	40.118	47.561	71.419304	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.004	313.004	125	421.48579635632	30.102222221654	0.78604583708303	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	53.888	39.974	46.931	71.773052	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	21.888	307.888	125	421.64423684084	30.262693736278	0.75512884227267	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-05-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	58.172	41.72	49.946	69.0363512	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	26.172	320.172	125	420.41477607363	29.023902130688	0.86050517123107	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	58.262	43.574	50.918	68.7667352	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	26.262	321.262	125	420.29318819061	28.902190378667	0.86232578525387	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	58.262	43.646	50.954	68.974446866667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	26.262	321.262	125	420.38686663415	28.995951596102	0.86232578525387	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-05-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.776	43.322	50.549	69.1238488	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.776	316.776	125	420.45421669981	29.06341370248	0.85230105624103	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.434	43.934	50.684	71.5462208	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.434	313.434	125	421.54265760324	30.1597840575	0.84496132113096	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.668	43.988	50.828	71.4990872	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.668	313.668	125	421.52154295401	30.138405556347	0.85000874752687	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.776	42.962	50.369	70.5106592	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.776	311.776	125	421.07816960868	29.690499313837	0.85230105624103	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.884	43.322	50.603	70.6631792	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	25.884	313.884	125	421.14665726029	29.759561711465	0.85456984782817	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.398	43.25	50.324	71.107682916667	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	25.398	307.398	125	421.34610614144	29.960945313678	0.84417497956405	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	56.372	42.206	49.289	69.7404824	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.372	308.372	125	420.73192350568	29.342047306366	0.82066456457049	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.752	41.432	48.092	71.7495744	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	22.752	306.752	125	421.63372584919	30.252040382366	0.77926985424816	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.346	41.108	48.227	71.627952	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	23.346	310.346	125	421.57926510224	30.196859364939	0.79504572769062	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	56.966	39.758	48.362	70.6043952	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.966	307.966	125	421.12026400794	29.732941546745	0.83453467369207	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	56.408	41.018	48.713	70.456992	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.408	311.408	125	421.05406455314	29.666202857788	0.82152538173397	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	56.084	40.748	48.416	70.625582366667	0	0	1.82	1.82	F	F	24.084	305.084	125	421.12977722476	29.742535768443	0.81368456651319	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	54.446	40.964	47.705	71.1557896	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	22.446	306.446	125	421.36767811601	29.982749848263	0.77087929097519	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.634	41.18	48.407	71.7365464	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	23.634	307.634	125	421.62789290425	30.24612890286	0.80244743106087	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	57.272	42.332	49.802	71.533744	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	25.272	309.272	125	421.53706856144	30.154124748985	0.84140216653286	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	60.926	44.15	52.538	70.8919792	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	28.926	310.926	125	421.24934797658	29.863200014769	0.9090193535625	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	60.926	44.15	52.538	70.9739464	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	28.926	311.926	125	421.28612222899	29.900338658144	0.9090193535625	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.634	43.556	49.595	71.540405483333	0	0	1.8	1.8	F	F	23.634	307.634	125	421.54005262657	30.15714629237	0.80244743106087	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-28 00:00:05	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	53.348	41.882	47.615	73.6854768	0.02362206	0.02362206	1.79	1.81362206	F	F	21.348	299.348	125	422.49833351615	31.131991152343	0.73934923534578	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	51.746	41.054	46.4	74.3355072	0.02362206	0.02362206	1.79	1.81362206	F	F	19.746	292.746	125	422.78769626547	31.428137839813	0.6896513859004	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	51.926	41.108	46.517	74.7015552	0.023228359	0.023228359	1.79	1.813228359	F	F	19.926	291.926	125	422.95043335211	31.595055143916	0.69543650609881	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.49	38.786	47.138	75.1294968	0	0.06	1.79	1.85	F	F	23.49	287.49	125	423.14049525902	31.790332484513	0.79876694072946	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-27 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	55.49	38.786	47.138	75.2190408	0	0.06	1.79	1.85	F	F	23.49	285.49	125	423.18023834856	31.831211614094	0.79876694072946	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-04-27 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	58.784	39.452	49.118	74.366341483333	0	0.06	1.79	1.85	F	F	26.784	295.784	125	422.80141036289	31.442194062682	0.8725659476948	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	45.014	41.522	43.268	76.8304984	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	13.014	277.014	125	423.89392261977	32.567981343608	0.45199561482796	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-26 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	45.014	41.522	43.268	76.6681384	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	13.014	281.014	125	423.82214868933	32.493655152699	0.45199561482796	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	44.276	38.48	41.378	76.797928	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	12.276	281.276	125	423.87952670754	32.55306937276	0.425401784509	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-26 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	42.53	39.938	41.234	76.4936752	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	10.53	282.53	125	423.74499134034	32.413811735215	0.36402394098634	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-26 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	42.53	39.938	41.234	77.7944248	0	0	1.79	1.79	F	F	10.53	273.53	125	424.31943329421	33.009686244585	0.36402394098634	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-26 04:00:09	FORECAST	2026	218	-67	44.456	42.602	43.529	77.881519810806	0	0	1.88	1.88	F	F	12.456	275.456	125	424.35782877049	33.04963264826	0.43186162279602	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L