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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 17, 2026

[ Thursday, April 16, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 18, 2026 ]

DAY 199 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.251
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 171

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 106
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 418.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2026199-8635.4219.41827.41992.86243358071600.52.853.35FF3.42171.42106418.3292805218538.8470750273280.25138690000652162113126DRYL
2026-04-12 04:00:07FORECAST2026199-8635.63619.20227.41993.54867960347500.532.923.45FF3.636172.636106418.6420113054439.1634073841670.25851772502288162113126DRYL
2026-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026199-8634.98819.43627.21297.91418334594400.742.763.5TF2.988165.988106420.6187124540241.1845377299580.23744266959917161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2026199-8632.75618.60825.68298.12502575096100.722.763.48TF0.756161.756106420.7136282052841.2825356014230.17255727039993161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2026199-8633.3519.1326.2498.55214907589700.842.733.57TF1.35165.35106420.9057522673141.481166444350.18861613731477161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026199-8635.7817.97826.87997.77453747437200.822.723.54TF3.78165.78106420.5558195368341.1196507373690.26332907327373162113126DRYL
2026-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026199-8636.7718.1427.45597.48592614636300.822.693.51TF4.77169.77106420.4257656830140.9855951434020.29759621843356162113126DRYL
2026-04-11 04:00:06FORECAST2026199-8639.221.97430.58796.25990703200700.542.893.43FF7.2175.2106419.8722337755640.4168621885570.38916369417505162113126DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026199-8639.8322.85631.34396.48345673239600.62.943.54TF7.83176.83106419.9732921382140.5204749607790.41420897295481162113126DRYL
2026-04-10 20:00:04FORECAST2026199-8640.94623.12632.03698.59635878055600.62.943.54TF8.946179.946106420.9256263045241.501734071050.45937877467215162113126DRYL
2026-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2026199-8641.16222.44231.80298.79573500021700.642.953.59TF9.162175.162106421.0152261984941.5945087185620.46820106884253162113126DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026199-8637.50823.95430.73195.5631445231840.0429134090.7429134092.393.132913409FF5.508176.508106419.5568854042540.0941752755830.32439228946788162113126DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2026199-8634.68225.57430.12895.4798385160640.0429134090.7329134092.262.992913409FF2.682177.682106419.5191444974140.055620171010.22782788126073161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2026199-8635.20425.77230.48895.8916070064850.0437008110.7437008112.343.083700811FF3.204181.204106419.7056140704940.2462458028630.24436126461395161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2026199-8631.74824.94428.34698.631437309960.1362205460.6662205462.623.286220546FF-0.252155.748106420.9413939240241.5180547059840.14736219258705161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026199-8630.86624.81827.842100.098926316620.1362205460.6662205462.523.186220546FF-1.134157.866106421.5997655622642.201683868120.12743878503412161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:06FORECAST2026199-8631.58625.50228.544100.376846736670.1051181670.7051181672.493.195118167FF-0.414156.586106421.7241751310542.3313428922780.14355483727905161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026199-8639.34427.82433.58499.92124778387900.882.283.16FF7.344162.344106421.5201826974742.118822621220.39485193147663162113126DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:04FORECAST2026199-8639.66828.2233.94498.73872818417900.812.353.16FF7.668169.668106420.9896119041841.567978858170.40773093913968162113126DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026199-8641.73828.63435.18697.98171419790600.692.433.12FF9.738175.738106420.6491186154141.2159217177760.49179188691999162113126DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2026199-8638.08433.7135.89799.6797777925380.4708663961.5108663962.083.590866396TF6.084169.084106421.4119698158542.006251510360.345966588582971621151210DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026199-8633.76428.63431.199102.934704581990.4822837251.5222837252.093.612283725TF1.764154.764106422.8650720358643.5274912680540.20033460186965161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026199-8632.4527.37429.912102.080929608680.464567181.394567182.173.56456718TF0.45148.45106422.4850814431643.1276698595170.16463455680436161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026199-8638.71427.3233.017100.710355091340.0618110571.0618110572.073.131811057FF6.714151.714106421.8733524553342.4870151293520.370147096162114128DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026199-8638.71427.3233.017100.384799359190.0618110571.0618110572.043.101811057FF6.714152.714106421.7277337870942.3350539404250.370147096162114128DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:06FORECAST2026199-8635.45628.79632.12697.5698923502190.1452756690.7852756692.092.875275669FF3.456159.456106420.4636123148741.0245893907460.25256811792601162113126DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026199-8632.37829.94831.16395.20139795238500.111.932.04FF0.378167.378106419.3929419714639.9267943670470.16280510979919161112123DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:20FORECAST2026199-8632.37829.94831.16395.52334103913800.111.932.04FF0.378171.378106419.5388538523840.075753015710.16280510979919161112123DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026199-8632.0925.68228.88697.05510940943500.451.822.27FF0.090000000000003166.09106420.2314538560540.7856097312850.15561972705088161112123DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:15FORECAST2026199-8631.89230.231.04696.67749760635600.452.282.73FF-0.108168.892106420.0609641681440.6104428578890.15080266541482161112123DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:08FORECAST2026199-8631.89230.231.04696.71849439048800.452.282.73FF-0.108164.892106420.0794819085340.6294550145290.15080266541482161112123DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:13FORECAST2026199-8628.20227.89628.04995.07052320618700.612.242.85FF-3.798166.202106419.3335924600539.8662640331070.078838665357812161113124.5DRYL