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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 16, 2026

[ Wednesday, April 15, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, April 17, 2026 ]

DAY 198 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.119
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 173

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 105
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2026198-8730.09216.01623.05492.95384718071601.681.683.36TF-1.908173.092105417.6874621488638.8256565258860.11924534413103161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-12 04:00:07FORECAST2026198-8729.60615.20622.40693.64885080347501.741.723.46TF-2.394173.606105418.0053123657139.1457171327970.10926296001434161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026198-8729.51616.9723.24397.9885737459440.0830709111.9730709111.543.513070911TF-2.484167.516105419.9773839098141.1529848548750.10748204933955161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2026198-8729.46216.32222.89298.1355545509610.0751968911.9151968911.573.485196891TF-2.538166.462105420.0437955839941.2212308153250.10642356422719161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2026198-8730.217.7823.9998.5767490758970.0779527982.0079527981.573.577952798TF-1.8169.2105420.2429956743241.4261883354910.12154815495504161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026198-8730.23616.39423.31597.8514862743720.011811031.951811031.63.55181103TF-1.764167.236105419.9154200800641.0893479643610.12232263842722161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026198-8730.05615.92622.99197.6346085463630.011811031.891811031.633.52181103TF-1.944170.056105419.8173468058240.9887023163590.11848460655252161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 04:00:06FORECAST2026198-8730.77616.95223.86496.50433263200701.721.723.44TF-1.224172.776105419.3053545825140.4647834130120.13435552126669161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026198-8732.82818.98625.90796.8282503323960.0653543661.7553543661.793.545354366TF0.828173.828105419.452233067840.6148258259720.18728822613527161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026198-8732.88219.07625.97998.9984211805560.0653543661.7553543661.793.545354366TF0.882175.882105420.4331728392141.6222203230130.18883551027533161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 16:00:03FORECAST2026198-8732.8118.0525.4399.21905180021701.751.853.6TF0.81170.81105420.5325977024341.7248455951170.18677420770997161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026198-8733.85419.36426.60995.6835440345240.0496063261.3596063261.743.099606326TF1.854175.854105418.9326315311740.0849588966120.21801287140175161114126DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:04FORECAST2026198-8735.3319.68827.50995.3502767788780.0496063261.3296063261.632.959606326FF3.33180.33105418.7810717247239.9308910987070.26692924900822162114128DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2026198-8735.18618.89627.04196.00811260648501.461.593.05TF3.186183.186105419.0801121763440.2350906009650.26192475112099162114128DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2026198-8737.11217.63627.37497.78869813971501.561.63.16TF5.112161.112105419.8870325042541.0602062743390.332561436367931621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026198-8738.08418.06828.07699.22848088976301.561.53.06TF6.084164.084105420.5368455808841.7292323451630.370845260523611621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:06FORECAST2026198-8736.57218.26627.41999.7250083972401.591.513.1TF4.572161.572105420.7603914253441.9603335681180.311994205437181621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026198-8735.6920.67828.184100.328722183880.2287402811.6887402811.483.168740281TF3.69159.69105421.0318149918242.2415839968890.279647949526561621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026198-8735.70822.13628.92299.1626353841790.2287402811.6387402811.533.168740281TF3.708166.708105420.5071795410641.698600121260.280291515718031621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026198-8736.82419.90428.36498.5381661979060.192913491.532913491.63.13291349TF4.824170.824105420.2255843441341.4082584707140.321524479147221621151210DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:04FORECAST2026198-8738.24624.3531.29899.0604773968140.11811031.51811031.613.1281103TF6.246168.246105420.4611434510541.6510815970710.377364586209871621151210DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026198-8735.00623.23429.12101.371173036490.1421260611.5321260611.613.142126061TF3.006158.006105421.4995115604642.7278999211910.255737399077131621151210DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026198-8734.01621.81227.914100.520324754830.1429134631.4029134631.713.112913463TF2.016153.016105421.1178705831442.3309051110790.22311618947756161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026198-8734.21418.19426.204100.627663946570.2803151121.1603151121.923.080315112FF2.214150.214105421.1660621665842.3809569694010.22944479685312161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026198-8734.21418.19426.204100.302108214430.2803151121.1603151121.893.050315112FF2.214151.214105421.0198583899442.2291793966490.22944479685312161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026198-8736.48220.8428.66197.360253278070.0618110570.9118110571.832.741811057FF4.482161.482105419.6932044539840.8614366847240.30862034928119162113126DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026198-8738.94828.05833.50395.20346435238500.21.852.05FF6.948171.948105418.7142651826939.8630486191550.40599806801982162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:19FORECAST2026198-8738.94828.05833.50395.52540743913800.191.862.05FF6.948175.948105418.8607318148140.0118420668660.40599806801982162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026198-8737.23827.60832.42397.0556014094350.3448820760.4548820761.832.284882076FF5.238171.238105419.5552518614240.7201872938970.33743682738181162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:15FORECAST2026198-8737.83230.7434.28696.6774976063560.2523623410.4523623412.292.742362341FF5.832173.832105419.383890206240.5449850415540.36077796367161162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:08FORECAST2026198-8737.83230.7434.28696.7184943904880.2523623410.4523623412.292.742362341FF5.832169.832105419.4024784478740.5639762591170.36077796367161162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:13FORECAST2026198-8739.07428.45433.76495.0705232061870.2980316570.6080316572.252.858031657FF7.074175.074105418.6537492273439.8016309812750.41119599651494162113126DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:12FORECAST2026198-8732.79225.46629.12995.0591735821680.1570866990.2970866991.82.097086699FF0.792162.792105418.6485818338739.7963882104740.18626106142562161112123DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:05FORECAST2026198-8733.1725.46629.31898.2182712778690.1555118950.3555118951.872.225511895FF1.17161.17105420.0811593338341.2596452661720.19721971601609161112123DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026198-8736.4134.32235.36695.2261629758670.0570866450.2370866451.872.107086645FF4.41175.41105418.7245957494839.8735365968440.30593282048126162112124DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2026198-8734.59232.95433.77395.80715700887700.832.082.91FF2.592172.592105418.9888143400240.1421271204380.24180101971006161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:05FORECAST2026198-8734.59232.95433.77396.75369357710200.932.13.03FF2.592174.592105419.4184364721140.580282883010.24180101971006161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:21FORECAST2026198-8732.23431.4631.84797.78590133019700.872.122.99FF0.234170.234105419.8857679141241.0589082712040.17078793933469161113124.5DRYL