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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 15, 2026

[ Tuesday, April 14, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 16, 2026 ]

DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 20.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.041
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 104
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2026197-8825.14216.7920.96692.9538471807160.4964569611.6964569611.823.516456961TF-6.858172.142104417.0013517208438.761879922010.041237796284447161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-12 04:00:07FORECAST2026197-8824.6218.01421.31793.6488508034750.527559341.777559341.843.61755934TF-7.38172.62104417.320412066339.0815770068420.036101772701459161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026197-8824.47617.49220.98497.4200207052610.6606302781.8906302781.73.590630278TF-7.524167.476104419.0418847266540.8230690864420.034780733438572161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2026197-8824.33216.7920.56197.6071724774890.6433074341.8433074341.733.573307434TF-7.668166.332104419.1268874990140.9097903980690.033499533205468161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 16:00:03FORECAST2026197-8824.18816.73620.46298.0563688413340.7582681261.9282681261.733.658268126TF-7.812168.188104419.3307439305141.1180500933610.032257330538504161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026197-8824.2616.17820.21997.7721023218460.8051185451.9451185451.753.695118545TF-7.74166.26104419.2017637691840.9862377407390.032873609636884161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026197-8824.31415.29619.80597.5541176462910.8051185451.8751185451.793.665118545TF-7.686169.314104419.1027945413240.8852033245730.033342142413288161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 04:00:06FORECAST2026197-8825.2516.19620.72396.5043326320070.5413388751.7213388751.883.601338875TF-6.75171.25104418.6254038417240.399165220550.042370878008827161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026197-8827.8618.62623.24396.4562173560440.5291341441.6891341441.953.639134144TF-4.14169.86104418.6034928523140.3769094925620.078172957688449161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026197-8828.25618.60823.43298.6322960639830.5291341441.7091341441.933.639134144TF-3.744172.256104419.5917739145141.3853000707480.085182678412848161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026197-8828.2218.08623.15399.2286950002170.6370082181.7770082181.983.757008218TF-3.78167.22104419.8616802330141.662326610120.084526664511536161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026197-8829.06621.43425.2595.4615417306130.6484255471.3284255471.883.208425547TF-2.934171.066104418.1499317999239.9172371641710.10096457577151161114126DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026197-8829.51621.5625.53895.1792338707170.6440948361.2840948361.793.074094836FF-2.484173.516104418.0209936401639.7869179165460.1106010898377161114126DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2026197-8829.51620.55225.03496.0703998064850.696850771.456850771.753.20685077TF-2.484176.516104418.4277003529740.1985164630180.1106010898377161114126DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:04FORECAST2026197-8827.1417.54622.34397.9452525397150.5311026491.5611026491.763.321102649TF-4.86153.14104419.2803382512141.0665186149510.066557798154241161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026197-8827.46418.69823.08199.4093400897630.5311026491.5611026491.663.221102649TF-4.536155.464104419.9433523348941.7462915306940.07160828953789161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:05FORECAST2026197-8827.44617.74422.59599.857454797240.6035436331.5935436331.673.263543633TF-4.554154.446104420.1457893823941.9546891715030.071320231005963161115127.5DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026197-8829.0318.4123.7298.8808351809690.6515751551.4615751551.643.101575155TF-2.97153.03104419.7043024771541.5007119579870.10022087176217161114126DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026197-8828.6719.56224.11697.8110168463550.5818900781.4118900781.693.101890078TF-3.33159.67104419.2194259467941.0042783336010.093002076468494161114126DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:09FORECAST2026197-8830.32619.50824.91797.3650991799750.5007876721.3407876721.763.100787672TF-1.674163.326104419.0169321585740.7976251577080.12956749574888161114126DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026197-8831.29822.62226.9699.1030028769550.9208666391.4008666391.773.170866639TF-0.702159.298104419.8048310020441.6039193745550.15514877779274161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026197-8831.08218.15824.62100.79763670370.9019689911.3919689911.773.161968991TF-0.918152.082104420.5697710169342.3924389875230.14919495972349161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026197-8829.31819.29224.305100.011879623080.7944886181.2644886181.873.134488618TF-2.682148.318104420.2154978543742.0265417871640.10628300730455161114126DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026197-8827.17622.0124.59398.6696626962250.720472830.880472832.082.96047283FF-4.824145.176104419.6086965673141.4026485546990.06710501001009161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:04FORECAST2026197-8828.5822.13625.35898.3441069640750.720472830.880472832.052.93047283FF-3.42145.58104419.4612044544641.2515375581490.091258760596454161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026197-8829.85823.93626.89797.1187910819920.5822837790.8522837791.992.842283779FF-2.142153.858104418.904983859140.6835456106170.11835208584533161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026197-8835.29424.90830.10195.5124403523850.1055118680.1955118682.012.205511868FF3.294162.294104418.1731688358839.9407398454050.29223337721967162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:18FORECAST2026197-8835.29427.10431.19995.8343834391380.1055118680.1855118682.022.205511868FF3.294166.294104418.320077760840.0894467324190.29223337721967162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026197-8835.2428.65231.94695.4874734411860.1129921870.1129921871.992.102992187FF3.24163.24104418.1617709259439.929210995410.29006638111338162112124DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:15FORECAST2026197-8840.69431.76636.2396.4634359589240.2011812110.2911812112.362.651181211FF8.694164.694104418.6067802686940.380248340420.533860421423163112125DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:07FORECAST2026197-8840.69431.76636.2396.5044327430560.2011812110.2911812112.362.651181211FF8.694160.694104418.6254494280340.3992115288590.533860421423163112125DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:13FORECAST2026197-8841.39631.53236.46494.8557528460770.3078741820.3678741822.352.717874182FF9.396165.396104417.8731367947639.6376709848190.56636098626548163112125DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:12FORECAST2026197-8837.59831.47834.53893.6709362762640.1370079480.1370079481.962.097007948FF5.598158.598104417.3305417735339.0917425846070.39078335324524162112124DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:05FORECAST2026197-8837.6731.49634.58396.8587266152620.1992127060.1992127062.032.229212706FF5.67156.67104418.7867071804740.5631471808990.39402127141066162112124DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026197-8840.94633.20637.07695.3739597758670.1795276560.1795276562.032.209527656FF8.946167.946104418.1099404815539.8768006453770.54556483005625163112125DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:04FORECAST2026197-8840.76632.43236.59995.8760370088770.2059056230.8259056232.243.065905623FF8.766166.766104418.3390763235940.108692763860.53720797625942163113127.5DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:05FORECAST2026197-8838.9331.2835.10596.8225735771020.248031630.928031632.263.18803163FF6.93168.93104418.7702586813940.5464141830810.45167775836495162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:20FORECAST2026197-8838.64231.49635.06997.7871805301970.3236222220.8736222222.283.153622222FF6.642166.642104419.2086075391940.9932277852470.43836265321634162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:14FORECAST2026197-8835.74428.70632.22599.2294997828570.3866143821.6966143821.643.336614382TF3.744154.744104419.862044169341.6627006207270.310577174831691621151210DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:14FORECAST2026197-8835.49228.70632.099101.812207155970.3866143821.6966143821.693.386614382TF3.492158.492104421.0261642865642.8656030564240.300242674490161621151210DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:12FORECAST2026197-8839.50636.1437.82398.8093856377390.3846458771.5046458771.73.204645877TF7.506166.506104419.6719602594441.4675285626210.478456716153361621151210DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:06FORECAST2026197-8842.1739.3840.77591.3666992001.561.56FF10.17194.17104416.2706129486738.0332718790810.60167342946931163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:14FORECAST2026197-8842.1739.3840.77590.6408024001.561.56FF10.17202.17104415.9354197880137.7007201961660.60167342946931163121123DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:25FORECAST2026197-8840.58639.43440.0191.467930333333001.561.56FF8.586192.586104416.3173087787238.0796825959330.52883466804901163111122.5DRYL