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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 13, 2026

[ Sunday, April 12, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 14, 2026 ]

DAY 195 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 08:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.69°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.172
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 210

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.35 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 86 in
SWE DAY: 102
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2026195-9031.69426.0628.87785.6742700596530.0204724520.3504724521.491.840472452FF-0.306209.694102412.2195758886735.3166112685620.17151802479514161122124DRYL
2026-04-12 04:00:07FORECAST2026195-9031.80226.11428.95886.0242038831880.0362204920.3862204921.491.876220492FF-0.198210.802102412.3845412509235.4750518548440.17404931125512161122124DRYL
2026-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026195-9031.94626.07829.01288.2915200.211.491.7FF-0.053999999999998205.946102413.4498511173536.5041157989240.17746100982874161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2026195-9032.03626.47429.25588.582685600.241.491.73FF0.036000000000001205.036102413.5862127544936.6365774529260.17961455998754161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026195-9032.57626.63629.60688.545588800.241.491.73FF0.576206.576102413.5688448089236.6196968729420.19287744251859161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026195-9032.12625.7928.95888.2846320.0102362260.2702362261.491.760236226FF0.126205.126102413.4466240378536.5009830548240.18178442112287161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026195-9033.51226.22229.86788.186822400.31.491.79FF1.512207.512102413.4007934153536.4565023489380.21723554056449161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2026195-9033.09827.26630.18288.1466315082100.391.491.88FF1.098209.098102413.3819578773336.4382271131550.20624993007104161122124DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026195-9033.67427.87830.77687.909196800.431.521.95FF1.674203.674102413.2706444067836.3302904108180.22162442140175161122124DRYL
2026-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026195-9033.69227.60830.6589.9994649726830.0224409570.4324409571.521.952440957FF1.692205.692102414.2482959557437.2821250018630.22211517759171161122124DRYL
2026-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026195-9033.24227.4130.32690.2567992122590.0330708840.4930708841.522.013070884FF1.242201.242102414.3682968073437.3995561648660.21003321221188161123126DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026195-9033.2627.7730.51588.8986866782430.0220472560.3820472561.521.902047256FF1.26203.26102413.7340915226236.7804173703770.2105089671071161122124DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026195-9033.56627.5930.57888.83913600.281.511.79FF1.566204.566102413.7062327156436.7533042722730.21869290465762161122124DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:07FORECAST2026195-9034.55628.70631.63188.60291203333300.231.521.75FF2.556207.556102413.59568165836.645781799310.24638784035579161122124DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2026195-9032.91826.97829.94889.233877600.271.491.76FF0.918189.918102413.8908208758236.9330828497960.20157796287043161112123DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026195-9033.69227.5930.64190.871804800.171.491.66FF1.692190.692102414.6547704751937.680427362010.22211517759171161112123DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2026195-9033.49427.15830.32690.884400.161.511.67FF1.494191.494102414.6606327276237.686182809070.21675099961541161112123DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026195-9032.25226.52829.3990.19855200.151.491.64FF0.252188.252102414.3411416650337.3729710122130.18484958164796161112123DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026195-9032.68426.61829.65189.707240800.091.61.69FF0.684194.684102414.1119299863437.1488386214380.19559992291195161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2026195-9033.40426.49229.94889.57476706666700.161.61.76FF1.404197.404102414.0500779677337.0884392878940.21433767082744161112123DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026195-9032.88227.0529.96691.188082400.251.521.77FF0.882189.882102414.8019205191137.8249917079750.20065121990894161112123DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026195-9031.78425.10628.44592.104875200.241.531.77FF-0.216184.784102415.2277964902838.2445043753080.17362579296995161112123DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026195-9031.29825.08828.19392.172082400.311.561.87FF-0.702183.298102415.2589771226238.2752846566860.16243864020964161112123DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026195-9031.58626.49229.03992.8100366225400.51.582.08FF-0.414178.586102415.5546896649138.5676459664690.16901033014169161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026195-9030.99225.4328.21192.78008447644700.511.542.05FF-1.008177.992102415.5408165884338.5539120664860.15564049197342161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026195-9032.70226.0629.38192.05857319256900.491.51.99FF0.702182.702102415.2063116790238.2233006337190.19605592263166161112123DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:03FORECAST2026195-9032.12625.5228.82394.3836596238200.521.492.01FF0.126184.126102416.2820696739839.2902251716080.18178442112287161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:15FORECAST2026195-9033.13425.26829.20195.03403965091500.531.492.02FF1.134185.134102416.5818485067939.5894559088460.20719195163472161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026195-9034.14225.28629.71495.489637617600.51.491.99FF2.142182.142102416.7915519271139.7992742555970.23458361488208161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:14FORECAST2026195-9032.68425.71829.20197.3532671589240.0870079210.9570079211.492.447007921FF0.684175.684102417.6468244601240.6592828797420.19559992291195161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:07FORECAST2026195-9030.5624.56627.56397.4009551430560.0870079210.9570079211.492.447007921FF-1.44171.56102417.668656750740.6813261008360.14636630949272161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:12FORECAST2026195-9032.41425.68229.04895.8043288460770.055118140.915118141.492.40511814FF0.414177.414102416.9362569165539.9442982654860.18883728333046161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:12FORECAST2026195-9032.9924.15228.57194.42162987626400.471.491.96FF0.99172.99102416.2995848691439.3076853201570.20343910866132161112123DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026195-9034.91624.18829.55297.21240395584300.541.492.03FF2.916170.916102417.5823196803740.5941811455870.25690521883875162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:04FORECAST2026195-9036.78825.89831.34396.70167097586700.541.492.03FF4.788176.788102417.3482486545240.3582730237440.31511312071552162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026195-9036.51825.05230.78596.19923643874100.751.492.24FF4.518178.518102417.1176843581540.126402740350.30637775792581162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2026195-9035.9624.87230.41695.58143745611600.771.492.26FF3.96183.96102416.8337763489239.8415715236910.28867308963215162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:20FORECAST2026195-9036.30224.96230.63296.08228186012500.791.492.28FF4.302182.302102417.0639723489340.0724581449330.29946745871877162113126DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:14FORECAST2026195-9036.71627.48232.09995.4129470903180.2051182210.3551182211.491.845118221FF4.716172.716102416.756269662839.7639439068950.31277329834898162112124DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:13FORECAST2026195-9036.48229.35432.91897.8389044746370.2051182210.4051182211.491.895118221FF4.482177.482102417.8690330602340.8838484084880.30522116090591162112124DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:11FORECAST2026195-9036.7729.01232.89197.7362378767370.181102460.391102461.491.88110246FF4.77176.77102417.822079694540.8363581711740.31452746498357162112124DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:05FORECAST2026195-9046.1332.73839.43493.272608800.071.491.56FF14.13194.13102415.7688074360538.7798413272250.64594824135405163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:13FORECAST2026195-9046.1332.73839.43492.54671200.071.491.56FF14.13202.13102415.4326882040238.4469293506030.64594824135405163121123DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:24FORECAST2026195-9042.54832.2737.40992.84789193333300.071.491.56FF10.548195.548102415.5722217775438.5850047380970.51844901067703163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 00:00:16FORECAST2026195-9038.9332.43235.68195.752368001.491.49FF6.93177.93102416.9123716462239.9203468336220.38775365646554162111122DRYL
2026-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2026195-9038.9332.43235.68198.6272816001.491.49FF6.93175.93102418.2291803786941.2488071465460.38775365646554162111122DRYL
2026-04-04 16:00:12FORECAST2026195-9040.13633.83636.98698.3168626726450.0448819140.1348819141.491.624881914FF8.136181.136102418.0874605288441.1050474419690.430658302853162112124DRYL
2026-04-04 12:00:12FORECAST2026195-9038.7531.24434.99798.3766872475030.2688977830.6988977831.492.188897783FF6.75169.75102418.1147817631641.1327471190730.38145248794773162113126DRYL
2026-04-04 08:00:14FORECAST2026195-9038.7531.24434.99798.1498752475030.2688977830.6988977831.492.188897783FF6.75169.75102418.0111772125241.0277448954710.38145248794773162113126DRYL
2026-04-04 04:00:17FORECAST2026195-9045.71629.7537.73398.5867957852220.1704725330.2904725331.491.780472533FF13.716162.716102418.2107031650741.2300531881290.63174472348006163112125DRYL
2026-04-04 00:00:07FORECAST2026195-9034.08827.60830.848103.247329508840.0362204920.2962204921.491.786220492FF2.088144.088102420.3252805368843.3974627404870.23306729364512161112123DRYL
2026-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026195-9034.08827.60830.848104.134405508840.0362204920.2962204921.491.786220492FF2.088133.088102420.7249366910443.8119411650660.23306729364512161112123DRYL
2026-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2026195-9032.21626.61829.417104.568694315420.0496063260.3996063261.491.889606326FF0.216130.216102420.9202696088644.0150830038930.18397056852389161112123DRYL
2026-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026195-9032.4530.36231.406102.7672625631900.071.491.56FF0.45120.45102420.1086191754243.173412771860.18973057007412161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026195-9032.4530.36231.406102.9823649631900.071.491.56FF0.45115.45102420.2057307599543.2737799247460.18973057007412161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 04:00:26FORECAST2026195-9036.06835.20435.636102.8905924027100.121.491.61FF4.068127.068102420.1643049884143.230954246730.2920620197867162112124DRYL