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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 12, 2026

[ Saturday, April 11, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, April 13, 2026 ]

DAY 194 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 08:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 212

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 86 in
SWE DAY: 101
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.48 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 08:00:02FORECAST2026194-9140.8228.6734.74585.60364480.0149606380.3349606381.491.824960638FF8.82211.82101411.4792092814635.2241200739150.48386490270329162122125DRYL
2026-04-12 04:00:06FORECAST2026194-9141.52229.1235.32185.9014429833330.0267716680.3467716681.491.836771668FF9.522212.522101411.6201660273235.3587662227860.50988620575611163122126DRYL
2026-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026194-9141.929.4835.6988.2915200.211.491.7FF9.9207.9101412.7476071330636.442113610140.52388731226954163122126DRYL
2026-04-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026194-9141.0929.37235.23188.582882400.241.491.73FF9.09207.09101412.8845804142536.5745062316090.49387101800396162122125DRYL
2026-04-11 16:00:01FORECAST2026194-9141.79230.30836.0588.554444800.241.491.73FF9.792207.792101412.8712159895736.5615813058570.51988924708876163122126DRYL
2026-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2026194-9141.46829.8435.65488.28532080.0161417410.2561417411.491.746141741FF9.468207.468101412.7446917064536.4392975158010.50788464933344163122126DRYL
2026-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2026194-9141.4529.89435.67288.20010640.0106299270.3006299271.491.790629927FF9.45208.45101412.7046115068436.4005906466740.50721741725008163122126DRYL
2026-04-11 04:00:05FORECAST2026194-9141.61230.25435.93388.174675508210.0122047310.3922047311.491.882204731FF9.612209.612101412.692648523436.3890403681750.51322155508841163122126DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026194-9141.43230.14635.78987.960758400.461.491.95FF9.432204.432101412.5919888657436.2919042503940.5065501649727163122126DRYL
2026-04-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026194-9143.0730.09236.58189.97860800.441.491.93FF11.07206.07101413.5393252705137.20969284110.56696191484941163122126DRYL
2026-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026194-9140.38830.0235.20490.169602400.491.491.98FF8.388202.388101413.6287416950437.2967391798540.46787884486713162122125DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026194-9142.3529.64235.99688.857930400.391.491.88FF10.35204.35101413.0137911019436.6995507039770.54051549923264163122126DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026194-9141.66630.86636.26688.879578400.31.491.79FF9.666204.666101413.0239569607436.7093951637710.51522233580303163122126DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:07FORECAST2026194-9143.89831.60437.75188.68724083333300.261.491.75FF11.898206.898101412.9336160301236.6219430530420.59700161697036163122126DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2026194-9141.77431.44236.60889.248539200.271.491.76FF9.774190.774101413.1971343129536.8772406390570.51922269741319163112125DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026194-9141.75632.21636.98690.909393600.171.491.66FF9.756190.756101413.9746751052537.6341866795750.51855609398951163112125DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:04FORECAST2026194-9142.5331.65837.09490.908409600.181.491.67FF10.53191.53101413.9742154090737.6337375382460.54714861749031163112125DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026194-9139.81231.08235.44790.199929600.151.491.64FF7.812189.812101413.6429357638537.3105636854370.44664882879861162112124DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026194-9140.3732.21636.29389.716687200.21.491.69FF8.37196.37101413.4166332084737.0903707648410.46721370260789162112124DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2026194-9141.07232.12636.59989.59346306666700.271.491.76FF9.072198.072101413.3588828517337.0342538040550.49320375394092162112124DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026194-9138.91231.80235.35791.200579200.281.491.77FF6.912190.912101414.1106580832237.7671318700830.41380303068556162112124DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026194-9138.49830.05634.27792.104875200.281.491.77FF6.498187.498101414.5323215514438.1804477428620.39887987542907162112124DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026194-9137.77830.21833.99892.172082400.381.491.87FF5.778185.778101414.563620895638.2111922252310.37328702114283162112124DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026194-9134.14228.02231.08292.810036622540.2326772910.5926772911.492.082677291FF2.142181.142101414.8604592833138.5032144193280.25427792048423162113126DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026194-9133.2627.3230.2992.7800844764470.2326772910.5626772911.492.052677291FF1.26181.26101414.8465333888438.4894964125780.22871889713324161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:05FORECAST2026194-9133.27827.82430.55192.0697907925690.1972442010.4972442011.491.987244201FF1.278184.278101414.5159801236238.1643995701580.22922569663592161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2026194-9134.98828.09431.54194.384643623820.3472442820.5172442821.492.007244282FF2.988185.988101415.5910642509839.2254144925730.28012979711119162113126DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:14FORECAST2026194-9133.58427.42830.50695.0595252509150.3787403620.5287403621.492.018740362FF1.584185.584101415.9033104044739.5355712373330.23793683823401161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026194-9132.75627.26630.01195.54139601760.3732285480.5032285481.491.993228548FF0.756181.756101416.1259293055339.7572522049710.21478594147685161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:14FORECAST2026194-9130.25426.9628.60796.8815742404510.5594491210.8694491211.492.359449121FF-1.746177.254101416.7436458528140.3747804649250.15325555986783161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:07FORECAST2026194-9129.6626.70828.18496.9114388931140.5594491210.8694491211.492.359449121FF-2.34174.66101416.7573871674740.3885580597340.14055663532471161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:12FORECAST2026194-9132.2727.53629.90395.5084351620420.5192916190.8592916191.492.349291619FF0.27179.27101416.110710439139.7420828082040.20182893769847161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:12FORECAST2026194-9132.41427.21229.81394.4400306762640.3192915110.4692915111.491.959291511FF0.414174.414101415.616710235639.2508548642180.20561850005602161112123DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026194-9129.96626.3328.14897.3057855558430.3614175180.5414175181.492.031417518FF-2.034169.966101416.938736110640.5705512459020.14700674796487161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026194-913228.07630.03896.9313365758670.3625986210.5425986211.492.032598621FF0174101416.7665419044640.3977379469020.19483698623342161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026194-9133.13427.73430.43496.4058764387410.5598428220.7498428221.492.239842822FF1.134176.134101416.5246273366840.1554217567120.22518893755706161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:04FORECAST2026194-9133.60226.52830.06595.7551134561160.586614490.766614491.492.25661449FF1.602181.602101416.2245771814839.8556316112370.23845484052499161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:19FORECAST2026194-9133.20626.47429.8496.2675690601250.6173231680.7873231681.492.277323168FF1.206180.206101416.4608988404640.0916783399650.22720227298493161113124.5DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:14FORECAST2026194-9135.47428.9432.20794.6944396503830.1531496890.1531496891.491.643149689FF3.474170.474101415.7344634275839.3677420576270.29553492653367162112124DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:13FORECAST2026194-9141.8131.04636.42897.0565072372230.1681103270.1981103271.491.688110327FF9.81174.81101416.8241211414440.4554933302140.52055574115558163112125DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:11FORECAST2026194-9141.34230.68636.01497.0989462272470.1838583670.2138583671.491.703858367FF9.342174.342101416.8436391700940.4750781049460.50321366601097163112125DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:05FORECAST2026194-9145.82432.82839.32694.273435200.071.491.56FF13.824181.824101415.5395602821139.1743418092920.66443074691723163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:13FORECAST2026194-9144.49233.49438.99393.547538400.071.491.56FF12.492190.492101415.2030179793538.8412202682190.61821515559444163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:24FORECAST2026194-9143.19633.94438.5793.59268153333300.071.491.56FF11.196187.196101415.2239654644838.8619243647250.57156277094173163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 00:00:15FORECAST2026194-9143.59233.09838.34596.2313792001.491.49FF11.592172.592101416.4442197844240.0750016297230.58595660451782163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 20:00:04FORECAST2026194-9143.59233.06238.32799.1062928001.491.49FF11.592170.592101417.7644346417441.4030843810310.58595660451782163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 16:00:12FORECAST2026194-9144.56435.43840.00198.64036880.0940945390.0940945391.491.584094539FF12.564174.564101417.5511275606241.1873972154350.62076392700616163112125DRYL
2026-04-04 12:00:12FORECAST2026194-9138.73232.68435.70898.5613495982120.4326773990.4326773991.491.922677399FF6.732164.732101417.5149263269741.1508346161840.40729804121797162112124DRYL
2026-04-04 08:00:14FORECAST2026194-9138.73232.68435.70898.3345375982120.4326773990.4326773991.491.922677399FF6.732164.732101417.4109760985641.045915323070.40729804121797162112124DRYL
2026-04-04 04:00:17FORECAST2026194-9137.70630.86634.28698.9077592063150.090551230.120551231.491.61055123FF5.706150.706101417.6735738129341.3111572655310.37075615317524162112124DRYL
2026-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2026194-9134.66426.56430.614102.944338978280.2633859690.2633859691.491.753385969FF2.664143.664101419.5119790039543.1863833720310.27008041409041162112124DRYL
2026-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026194-9134.66426.56430.614103.831414978280.2633859690.2633859691.491.753385969FF2.664132.664101419.9134656042743.6002093021240.27008041409041162112124DRYL
2026-04-03 16:00:04FORECAST2026194-9134.03425.9730.002104.105015511550.2822836170.3522836171.491.842283617FF2.034132.034101420.0371135502643.7279702215760.25106994603357162112124DRYL
2026-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026194-9137.41827.1432.279102.769722563190.0665354690.0665354691.491.556535469FF5.418122.418101419.4328417846843.1049967841030.36068945677162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026194-9137.41827.1432.279102.984824963190.0665354690.0665354691.491.556535469FF5.418117.418101419.5303224861743.205256827990.36068945677162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 04:00:26FORECAST2026194-9138.1227.73432.927102.950222802710.1019685590.1219685591.491.611968559FF6.12125.12101419.5146449776743.189126169450.38538168471271162112124DRYL
2026-04-03 00:00:04FORECAST2026194-9139.3834.0736.72594.847465042022001.171.17FF7.38140.38101415.8052545885239.4380743488740.43082272116027162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 20:00:05FORECAST2026194-9139.5633.74636.65393.37398001.211.21FF7.56137.56101415.1224603906738.7616363140690.43740494301294162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 16:00:04FORECAST2026194-9131.4625.01628.23894.1642521118270.0240157610.0240157611.211.234015761FF-0.54120.46101415.4889801519139.124209076710.18130122737972161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-02 12:00:04FORECAST2026194-9128.50826.49227.595.6728544652590.0598425520.2198425521.211.429842552FF-3.492125.508101416.1866143458439.8177613846990.11800789566528161112123DRYL
2026-04-02 08:00:04FORECAST2026194-9128.50826.49227.595.6238542694390.0598425520.2198425521.311.529842552FF-3.492129.508101416.1639968000239.7952053821920.11800789566528161112123DRYL
2026-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2026194-9136.60834.08835.34894.87282268465300.041.491.53FF4.608143.608101415.8169826442639.4497308636760.33290910082724162111122DRYL