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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 11, 2026

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DAY 193 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2026 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 42.41°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 33.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 37.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.544 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 200 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.32 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.32 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 1.83 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 2.15 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 86 in SWE DAY: 100 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.11 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 35.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -92 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 1 D₂: 2 D₃: 2 D₄: 1 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-12 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2026	193	-92	42.40994	33.29996	37.85495	86.317084583333	0.31999999999999	0.31999999999999	1.83	2.15	F	F	10.40994	200.40994	100	411.10826172412	35.485666600148	0.54365976558648	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-04-12 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.004	31.046	34.025	88.7440616	0.210236334	0.210236334	1.83	2.040236334	F	F	5.004	195.004	100	412.25620154839	36.585289745193	0.32314105445503	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-11 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.382	31.568	34.475	88.7312696	0.244488321	0.244488321	1.83	2.074488321	F	F	5.382	195.382	100	412.25016957151	36.579480938895	0.33754431301646	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.318	31.964	35.141	88.6571744	0.289763936	0.289763936	1.83	2.119763936	F	F	6.318	196.318	100	412.21522664971	36.545837239419	0.37420909730761	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-11 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.93	31.802	35.366	88.63843470821	0.384252176	0.384252176	1.83	2.214252176	F	F	6.93	196.93	100	412.20638806378	36.537329014699	0.39883788652187	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.714	32.252	35.483	88.4618112	0.427952987	0.457952987	1.83	2.287952987	F	F	6.714	191.714	100	412.12306281707	36.45715257409	0.39009368496706	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.912	32.234	35.573	90.5351584	0.414960854	0.444960854	1.83	2.274960854	F	F	6.912	191.912	100	413.09884860564	37.399969693369	0.39810719457298	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.066	31.91	34.988	90.582292	0.460236469	0.490236469	1.83	2.320236469	F	F	6.066	191.066	100	413.12097155395	37.421444476624	0.36420887545063	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-04-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.318	32.342	35.33	89.3790568	0.355905704	0.385905704	1.83	2.215905704	F	F	6.318	191.318	100	412.55538282977	36.873810995088	0.37420909730761	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.138	31.568	34.853	89.3725624	0.280315112	0.300315112	1.83	2.130315112	F	F	6.138	192.138	100	412.55232540126	36.87085844519	0.36705700716853	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-10 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.742	31.082	34.412	89.305488033333	0.231496188	0.261496188	1.83	2.091496188	F	F	5.742	191.742	100	412.52074523337	36.84036647694	0.35148684795162	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	36.878	32.72	34.799	89.7314864	0.270078886	0.270078886	1.83	2.100078886	F	F	4.878	177.878	100	412.72122375109	37.034088876012	0.31839691774649	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.796	33.458	35.627	91.451184	0.166929224	0.166929224	1.83	1.996929224	F	F	5.796	177.796	100	413.52832654504	37.817655080082	0.35359612592194	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.354	32.828	35.591	91.4327832	0.164173317	0.184173317	1.83	2.014173317	F	F	6.354	178.354	100	413.51970917449	37.809257917878	0.37564481419782	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.11	32.54	35.825	90.5932344	0.154724493	0.154724493	1.83	1.984724493	F	F	7.11	179.11	100	413.12610717473	37.42643026404	0.40616390563933	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.108	34.052	37.58	90.15624	0.089370127	0.199370127	1.83	2.029370127	F	F	9.108	185.108	100	412.92090061233	37.227395816622	0.48911913245888	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.198	34.196	37.697	90.049547066667	0.16141741	0.27141741	1.83	2.10141741	F	F	9.198	186.198	100	412.87076447388	37.178825337942	0.49289456551198	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.648	34.502	38.075	91.5488168	0.253149743	0.283149743	1.83	2.113149743	F	F	9.648	180.648	100	413.574042712	37.862214269476	0.51177451342838	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-04-08 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	40.568	33.044	36.806	92.3670128	0.241732414	0.281732414	1.83	2.111732414	F	F	8.568	177.568	100	413.95671442948	38.235945140354	0.46649881389151	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-08 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.65	31.676	35.663	92.4126704	0.305905677	0.375905677	1.83	2.205905677	F	F	7.65	176.65	100	413.97804515134	38.256816639407	0.42832991199704	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-08 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.326	30.722	35.024	91.9534376	0.27165369	0.36165369	1.83	2.19165369	F	F	7.326	176.326	100	413.76338397424	38.04696550944	0.41499846418963	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.418	30.812	34.115	91.8928232	0.280708813	0.330708813	1.83	2.160708813	F	F	5.418	177.418	100	413.73503201228	38.019280148351	0.3389289637567	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.22	30.668	33.944	91.325296854897	0.289763936	0.299763936	1.83	2.129763936	F	F	5.22	180.22	100	413.46936365878	37.760212376543	0.33134077705181	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.364	32.252	34.808	93.3952144	0.169685131	0.169685131	1.83	1.999685131	F	F	5.364	180.364	100	414.43647985396	38.706383891142	0.33685280960185	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 20:00:13	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.382	32.144	34.763	93.6372784	0.150000081	0.150000081	1.83	1.980000081	F	F	5.382	181.382	100	414.54924636398	38.817263192294	0.33754431301646	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.31	31.604	34.457	93.9482224	0.127559124	0.127559124	1.83	1.957559124	F	F	5.31	178.31	100	414.69399920823	38.959764065561	0.33478161161288	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 12:00:14	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	36.86	29.84	33.35	94.237112783906	0.312992295	0.312992295	1.83	2.142992295	F	F	4.86	175.86	100	414.82838308583	39.092229122825	0.31772158295565	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 08:00:06	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	36.446	29.966	33.206	94.242839620388	0.312992295	0.312992295	1.83	2.142992295	F	F	4.446	174.446	100	414.83104605635	39.094855743046	0.30235969251699	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 04:00:12	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.58	30.326	33.953	93.124967374646	0.342126169	0.342126169	1.83	2.172126169	F	F	5.58	175.58	100	414.31050222638	38.582652002805	0.3451866093602	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-07 00:00:11	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.632	32.018	35.825	92.924591386691	0.148425277	0.148425277	1.83	1.978425277	F	F	7.632	170.632	100	414.21703964971	38.490949154855	0.4275869784484	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-06 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.128	30.074	34.601	95.4545181162	0.17716545	0.17716545	1.83	2.00716545	F	F	7.128	169.128	100	415.39360454492	39.651196350387	0.40689836330441	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.21	31.046	34.628	95.141265991372	0.177952852	0.177952852	1.83	2.007952852	F	F	6.21	171.21	100	415.24833364836	39.507252164113	0.36991247113619	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.56	31.262	35.411	93.723193594126	0.185433171	0.185433171	1.83	2.015433171	F	F	7.56	171.56	100	414.58925364214	38.856628881146	0.4246178363954	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	42.44	33.836	38.138	93.033024	0.180708759	0.180708759	1.83	2.010708759	F	F	10.44	177.44	100	414.26762243113	38.540569660058	0.54491330533157	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-04-06 04:00:19	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.378	33.17	37.274	93.276823498742	0.172441038	0.172441038	1.83	2.002441038	F	F	9.378	176.378	100	414.38130171278	38.652171541042	0.50044700315079	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-04-06 00:00:13	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.342	33.746	37.544	94.1510648	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	9.342	164.342	100	414.7883662363	39.0527663478	0.49893644181642	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-05 20:00:13	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	43.178	32.612	37.895	96.9670368	0.031889781	0.031889781	1.83	1.861889781	F	F	11.178	162.178	100	416.0934120308	40.347345196628	0.57551840046148	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	40.784	32.18	36.482	96.8946144	0.031889781	0.031889781	1.83	1.861889781	F	F	8.784	161.784	100	416.0599651062	40.313969886243	0.47553806757773	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	45.212	34.574	39.893	95.1301056	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.83	1.90086618	F	F	13.212	165.212	100	415.24315587621	39.502125268181	0.6570319269369	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-05 08:00:13	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	51.098	37.868	44.483	94.5497424	0.07086618	0.07086618	1.83	1.90086618	F	F	19.098	175.098	100	414.97369874978	39.235656319567	0.8469958609236	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-05 04:00:24	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	50.396	37.94	44.168	94.538994333333	0.071259881	0.071259881	1.83	1.901259881	F	F	18.396	173.396	100	414.96870477724	39.230724029446	0.82887923033147	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-05 00:00:15	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	49.424	34.196	41.81	97.1273112	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	17.424	158.424	100	416.16740987981	40.421221530694	0.8016304577167	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	47.642	26.87	37.256	99.8768632	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	15.642	155.642	100	417.4321835814	41.691817094837	0.74536659489684	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-04 16:00:12	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	49.802	26.87	38.336	99.6422776	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	17.802	158.802	100	417.32462025539	41.583175660802	0.81252376519718	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-04 12:00:12	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	45.788	33.476	39.632	98.6713648	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	13.788	154.788	100	416.87875041062	41.133995259135	0.67902025375553	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-04 08:00:14	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	45.806	36.032	40.919	98.4445528	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	13.806	154.806	100	416.77443357409	41.029172731675	0.67969788169734	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-04 04:00:17	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.072	33.728	37.4	99.178871316667	0.027952771	0.027952771	1.83	1.857952771	F	F	9.072	142.072	100	417.1119485125	41.368692266165	0.48760921323397	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.198	29.858	35.528	101.190464	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	9.198	138.198	100	418.03331934193	42.30098555167	0.49289456551198	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	41.198	29.462	35.33	102.07754	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	9.198	127.198	100	418.43813386773	42.713135347408	0.49289456551198	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.74	29.012	34.376	102.13260233129	0.06692917	0.06692917	1.83	1.89692917	F	F	7.74	126.74	100	418.46323134801	42.738738797532	0.43204833921497	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	36.95	27.212	32.081	102.4161344	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	4.95	113.95	100	418.59241006569	42.870616528107	0.32110427339882	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	36.95	27.212	32.081	102.6312368	0	0	1.83	1.83	F	F	4.95	108.95	100	418.69034982011	42.970708438263	0.32110427339882	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 04:00:26	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	37.616	27.284	32.45	102.40610609957	0.021653555	0.021653555	1.83	1.851653555	F	F	5.616	115.616	100	418.58784270555	42.865951032096	0.34658303548477	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	44.924	31.748	38.336	94.996147442022	0	0	1.51	1.51	F	F	12.924	129.924	100	415.18099563075	39.440595076065	0.64582913914977	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-02 20:00:05	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	45.104	30.884	37.994	93.5109528	0	0	1.55	1.55	F	F	13.104	127.104	100	414.4904057138	38.759392764756	0.65284639404882	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-02 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	39.632	29.732	34.682	93.895008	0	0	1.55	1.55	F	F	7.632	117.632	100	414.6692345732	38.935371097605	0.4275869784484	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-04-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.174	28.238	33.206	95.115964272675	0.16141741	0.16141741	1.55	1.71141741	F	F	6.174	126.174	100	415.23659491242	39.495629126397	0.36848383166199	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	38.174	28.238	33.206	95.066964076856	0.16141741	0.16141741	1.65	1.81141741	F	F	6.174	130.174	100	415.21385911934	39.473121029111	0.36848383166199	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	47.444	31.208	39.326	94.927729884653	0.043700811	0.043700811	1.83	1.873700811	F	F	15.444	136.444	100	415.14923985414	39.409174902692	0.7386377267511	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	40.352	28.454	34.403	101.89347824331	0.03543309	0.12543309	2.11	2.23543309	F	F	8.352	118.352	100	418.3542128035	42.62756588029	0.45747680779735	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	40.442	27.806	34.124	93.773436155206	0.03543309	0.12543309	2.2	2.32543309	F	F	8.442	124.442	100	414.61264555299	38.879652446905	0.46123358438138	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-04-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	34.484	27.032	30.758	93.641266887767	0.03543309	0.12543309	2.16	2.28543309	F	F	2.484	118.484	100	414.55110383685	38.819090553006	0.2345286353953	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-04-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	42.368	36.608	39.488	96.246523272135	0	0.02	2.14	2.16	F	F	10.368	142.368	100	415.76038235476	40.015491315939	0.54191009137344	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	42.368	36.608	39.488	96.960713144343	0	0.02	2.27	2.29	F	F	10.368	141.368	100	416.09049181441	40.344430818906	0.54191009137344	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-04-01 04:00:06	FORECAST	2026	193	-92	28.472	25.214	26.843	98.071106551768	0	0.01	2.32	2.33	F	F	-3.528	104.472	100	416.60254477949	40.856672558807	0.087398466971308	16	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L