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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 10, 2026

[ Thursday, April 9, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 11, 2026 ]

DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2026 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.902
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 196

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 89 in
SWE DAY: 99
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.61 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-11 04:00:04OBSERVATION2026192-9353.0000641.6800447.3400588.93683003.153.15FF21.00006196.0000699411.64063389392 36.6100130777160.9022944896022716 5111123.5DRYL
2026-04-11 00:00:01FORECAST2026192-9347.82234.6141.21688.90323360.0287401730.0287401733.153.178740173FF15.822190.82299411.6247387995436.5947703090350.77493200159682164111123DRYL
2026-04-10 12:00:01FORECAST2026192-9347.62435.52841.57689.80571920.0291338740.0291338743.153.179133874FF15.624190.62499412.0512510447137.004558947330.76869925470464164111123DRYL
2026-04-10 08:00:01FORECAST2026192-9349.3735.2442.30589.79223840.0228346580.0228346583.153.172834658FF17.37192.3799412.0448872456336.9984327470610.82027405204222164111123DRYL
2026-04-10 04:00:06FORECAST2026192-9349.17235.99642.58489.7168984333330.0291338740.0291338743.153.179133874FF17.172192.17299412.0093179546936.9641981325280.81481645488233164111123DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:03FORECAST2026192-9347.06635.25841.16290.0672272003.153.15FF15.066179.06699412.1746564293737.1234284267060.75062761339948164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 20:00:01FORECAST2026192-9347.13835.94241.5491.903824003.153.15FF15.138178.13899413.0390392400637.9598671674470.75300077872571164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026192-9347.24636.3241.78391.89782160.0240157610.0240157613.153.174015761FF15.246178.24699413.0362208106237.9571289343920.75653778095249164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:02FORECAST2026192-9347.28236.1441.71191.076772003.153.15FF15.282178.28299412.65029140637.5828565061170.75771068141766164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026192-9348.0236.80642.41390.8337240.1055118680.1055118683.153.255511868FF16.02182.0299412.5358936875937.4721715073120.78106862279048164112126DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2026192-9349.136.75242.92690.7359854666670.1086614760.1086614763.153.258661476FF17.1183.199412.4898702466937.4276748718510.81280667778846164112126DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026192-9348.63236.542.56692.22964640.031496080.031496083.153.18149608FF16.632176.63299413.1919648338.1085488115920.79941762807426164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2026192-9348.52435.642.06292.8888280.0385826980.0385826983.153.188582698FF16.524174.52499413.5009666645638.4096201703380.79624825669813164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026192-9349.17235.7842.47692.87180480.0724409840.0724409843.153.222440984FF17.172175.17299413.4929932756538.4018405576640.81481645488233164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026192-9348.6535.83442.24292.39407280.0925197350.0925197353.153.242519735FF16.65174.6599413.269090751638.1836144568930.79994296975355164112126DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026192-9348.90236.30242.60292.30275760.0464567180.0464567183.153.196456718FF16.902177.90299413.2262623796338.1419235303810.80721075898023164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:04FORECAST2026192-9350.0935.99643.04391.64710610.011811030.011811033.153.16181103FF18.09181.0999412.918458852537.8427818091030.83925840241009164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2026192-9350.57636.33843.45793.7630336003.153.15FF18.576180.57699413.9099671829638.8094541603510.85130590663801165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:12FORECAST2026192-9350.8135.85243.33193.9878776003.153.15FF18.81181.8199414.0150145831738.9123925152050.85688615915491165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026192-9349.7335.61842.67494.2627088003.153.15FF17.73178.7399414.1433346109539.0382725518930.82993555521244164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:14FORECAST2026192-9348.90233.94441.42394.0540024003.153.15FF16.902176.90299414.0458967586838.9426737674510.80721075898023164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:06FORECAST2026192-9347.19234.66440.92894.0723048003.153.15FF15.192176.19299414.0544435872238.9510558209310.75477270319101164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:12FORECAST2026192-9348.237.9443.0793.313180633333003.153.15FF16.2176.299413.699615135238.6036269150510.78656304677295164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:11FORECAST2026192-9349.04638.19243.61993.3273776003.153.15FF17.046169.04699413.7062573357238.6101200938530.81129054818302164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:04FORECAST2026192-9347.80437.43642.6295.6732928003.153.15FF15.804167.80499414.8005352699739.6853330644810.77436934342772164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026192-9349.42438.15643.7995.338044003.153.15FF17.424171.42499414.6445538231939.5314007167560.82174481061589164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026192-9350.41439.8345.12294.117884003.153.15FF18.414170.41499414.0757263700338.971931181710.84735878979108164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026192-9351.29639.52445.4193.9470616003.153.15FF19.296173.29699413.9959497530438.8937029935990.86802012252264165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:19FORECAST2026192-9351.18839.79445.49193.904838416667003.153.15FF19.188173.18899413.9762255587338.8743705694340.86559890836095165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:13FORECAST2026192-9349.74838.4844.11494.9038248003.153.15FF17.748160.74899414.442326819539.3321619741820.83040975068175164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:13FORECAST2026192-9349.7336.66243.19697.7173368003.153.15FF17.73156.7399415.7487007036540.6258558108210.82993555521244164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:11FORECAST2026192-9349.51437.27443.39497.5440544003.153.15FF17.514158.51499415.6685114774740.5459918959250.82417920448967164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:05FORECAST2026192-9350.88235.94243.41296.1399848003.153.15FF18.882157.88299415.0174523587639.8997715615060.85857440371335165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:13FORECAST2026192-9350.97236.82443.89895.9363952003.153.15FF18.972161.97299414.9228561209939.8062031023360.86066571238395165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:23FORECAST2026192-9350.2736.91443.59295.894552733333003.153.15FF18.27161.2799414.9034083013439.7869767665930.84379256379661164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 00:00:14FORECAST2026192-9346.11235.07840.59598.4384912003.153.15FF14.112147.11299416.0820477050540.9584889914910.71807580844892164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026192-9344.7832.8138.795100.5827848003.153.15FF12.78145.7899417.0696283534141.9500246752880.66947219268496163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 16:00:12FORECAST2026192-9344.632.68438.642100.4927488003.153.15FF12.6146.699417.0282692662741.9083171058740.66265368767669163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 12:00:12FORECAST2026192-9346.81433.67440.24499.4853296003.153.15FF14.814146.81499416.5648539333141.4420917933320.74222714089668164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 08:00:14FORECAST2026192-9347.22832.75639.99299.572512003.153.15FF15.228147.22899416.6050049399941.4824068536470.75595018424171164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 04:00:17FORECAST2026192-9345.46431.51438.48999.866588916667003.153.15FF13.464139.46499416.7403736463241.6184395799150.69485811360351163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2026192-9344.0629.51636.788101.6572736003.153.15FF12.06135.0699417.5624780353942.4482630747370.64188340468209163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026192-9342.09826.47434.286102.5025296003.153.15FF10.098124.09899417.9492383952642.8408541799080.56325982438959163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026192-9339.48827.33833.413102.3479432003.153.15FF7.488125.48899417.8785669529742.7690118350.45522182198605162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026192-9337.81426.52832.171102.6276944003.153.15FF5.814114.81499418.0064389949742.8990370784080.38715042461848162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026192-9339.70425.28632.495102.8427968003.153.15FF7.704109.70499418.1046988131742.9990565811680.46414680962057162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 04:00:26FORECAST2026192-9340.58626.1533.368102.50956806667003.153.15FF8.586115.58699417.952455473242.844125682960.5007300976758163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026192-9343.73629.04836.39295.810702642022002.832.83FF11.736122.73699414.8644296771239.7484525085470.62921184533782163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2026192-9343.21427.80635.5194.3079928002.872.87FF11.214120.21499414.1644693370239.0590197922520.60850418521205163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026192-9339.07427.66233.36894.3008096002.872.87FF7.074116.07499414.1611169914239.0557286371310.43818239331688162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026192-9342.63829.4836.05994.732838350754002.872.87FF10.638125.63899414.3626328236239.2537483138730.58529445314641163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026192-9342.63829.4836.05994.683838154935002.972.97FF10.638129.63899414.3397882500239.2312814518150.58529445314641163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2026192-9341.37828.50834.94395.673405084653003.153.15FF9.378127.37899414.8005874904839.6853846363290.53358409306036163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026192-9339.34426.29432.819101.641612951490.0933071370.0933071373.433.523307137FF7.344116.34499417.5553044182542.440994637520.44928408010796162112124DRYL
2026-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026192-9340.35227.66234.00793.5161024337020.0933071370.0933071373.523.613307137FF8.352122.35299413.794531487438.6964517930810.49101224749896162112124DRYL
2026-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2026192-9339.2927.48233.38693.315942733930.0937008380.0937008383.483.573700838FF7.29122.2999413.7009074318538.6048901868850.44706027881423162112124DRYL
2026-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2026192-9356.31825.30440.81196.53483527213500.063.423.48FF24.318138.31899415.2007770145140.0813386139580.94960692685374165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2026192-9356.31825.30440.81197.24902514434300.063.553.61FF24.318137.31899415.531900701740.4100722596170.94960692685374165111123.5DRYL
2026-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026192-9337.32824.0830.70498.0711065517680.0110236280.0310236283.623.651023628FF5.328114.32899415.9123038224340.788979864360.36792651532814162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026192-9334.82625.95230.38998.90483706753700.133.533.66FF2.826106.82699416.2972869312341.1738153355910.27497408878735162112124DRYL
2026-03-31 20:00:04FORECAST2026192-9334.86222.83828.8597.80124565945700.133.253.38FF2.862107.86299415.7875182006840.6645372096810.27622611756874162112124DRYL
2026-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2026192-9333.22422.5527.88796.99495918440900.143.083.22FF1.224107.22499415.4141755635840.2930810034140.22224052432677161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2026192-9339.9236.08638.00396.76693058135100.052.973.02FF7.92121.9299415.3084505003840.1881239994190.47308987526149162111122DRYL
2026-03-31 08:00:08FORECAST2026192-9339.9236.08638.00397.59276345710800.053.223.27FF7.92120.9299415.6910559457440.5684388941480.47308987526149162111122DRYL
2026-03-31 04:00:10FORECAST2026192-9340.58638.87639.731100.061836232990.011811030.351811033.43.75181103TF8.586108.58699416.8301935367841.7087945626410.5007300976758163112125DRYL