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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 9, 2026

[ Wednesday, April 8, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, April 10, 2026 ]

DAY 191 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/10/2026 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.960
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 185

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 91 in
SWE DAY: 98
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.46 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -94

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-10 04:00:06OBSERVATION2026191-9458.6000435.4247.0100290.947980833333003.153.15FF26.60004184.6000498411.88416198684 37.4600328699330.960495935556316 5111123.5DRYL
2026-04-10 00:00:01FORECAST2026191-9447.60630.45239.02991.1273888003.153.15FF15.606173.60698411.9689093929337.5416509797620.74533936054893164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 12:00:01FORECAST2026191-9446.97630.00238.48992.1627144003.153.15FF14.976172.97698412.4572150697838.0131765146960.72479755363744164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 08:00:01FORECAST2026191-9449.71230.32640.01992.0480784003.153.15FF17.712175.71298412.4032108233137.9609230822760.80775777033618164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2026191-9449.74830.63240.1991.971200666667003.153.15FF17.748175.74898412.3669854319337.9258867654680.80873648701869164111123DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026191-9449.92831.17240.5593.4712576003.153.15FF17.928169.92898413.0725480461338.6104105459080.81358420831085164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 20:00:01FORECAST2026191-9449.11831.11840.11894.0269224003.153.15FF17.118168.11898413.3332274000938.864451298090.79117107165292164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 16:00:01FORECAST2026191-9449.02831.2840.15494.0336136003.153.15FF17.028168.02898413.3363642053438.8675119585140.78858651078873164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026191-9448.90231.13640.01993.5728064003.153.15FF16.902167.90298413.120215173538.6568179143560.78493689115443164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026191-9449.22629.69639.46193.524984003.153.15FF17.226171.22698413.0977688137938.6349622187450.79424788815112164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:04FORECAST2026191-9450.10830.43440.27192.9019029003.153.15FF18.108173.10898412.8050644392838.3503760131670.81835524735381164111123DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:02FORECAST2026191-9450.14430.240.17295.0534512003.153.15FF18.144172.14498413.8138368546139.3344333473440.81930022670044164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:10FORECAST2026191-9451.18829.87640.53295.3090944003.153.15FF19.188173.18898413.9333314090839.4516109585740.84535853596548164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:02FORECAST2026191-9449.53229.87639.70495.4729304003.153.15FF17.532170.53298414.0098720043539.5267356947840.80281849118902164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:14FORECAST2026191-9449.40630.81240.10995.1699568003.153.15FF17.406170.40698413.8683043500739.3878286458850.79931583832518164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:06FORECAST2026191-9449.15431.7340.44295.1488008003.153.15FF17.154171.15498413.8584149129939.378131879960.79219967107116164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:12FORECAST2026191-9449.24433.02641.13594.633511833333003.153.15FF17.244170.24498413.6173773288839.1420649719240.79475806804005164111123DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:11FORECAST2026191-9449.6433.2641.4594.705568003.153.15FF17.64161.6498413.6511021389939.1750625818990.80579118822359164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026191-9450.14433.13441.63996.9509184003.153.15FF18.144162.14498414.698917827640.2054409428720.81930022670044164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026191-9450.91833.42242.1796.7931832003.153.15FF18.918163.91898414.6255040833640.1329223761330.83886941171355164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026191-9450.1833.40441.79295.6762448003.153.15FF18.18162.1898414.1048117659539.6199933433770.82024212485429164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026191-9450.34234.53842.4495.5526544003.153.15FF18.342164.34298414.04710579439.5633000052540.82444248546301164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:19FORECAST2026191-9450.19834.82642.51295.542214416667003.153.15FF18.198164.19898414.0422303996339.5585115543960.82071191785918164111123DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:13FORECAST2026191-9449.8232.9941.40596.3361352003.153.15FF17.82152.8298414.4126168224539.9229098827940.81068475651113164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:13FORECAST2026191-9448.9231.24440.08299.0247776003.153.15FF16.92148.9298415.6614110405441.1607787851910.78546048975558164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:11FORECAST2026191-9449.33432.2740.80298.876292003.153.15FF17.334151.33498415.5926661698641.0922618132690.79729769476351164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026191-9449.11831.51440.31697.541496003.153.15FF17.118149.11898414.9735257277640.477138499880.79117107165292164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:13FORECAST2026191-9449.11831.49640.30797.3901568003.153.15FF17.118153.11898414.9031949874640.407487216650.79117107165292164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:23FORECAST2026191-9448.79432.64840.72197.324993533333003.153.15FF16.794152.79498414.8729038199240.3775026814290.78177978639454164111123DRYL
2026-04-05 00:00:13FORECAST2026191-9447.1231.24439.18299.476316003.153.15FF15.12143.1298415.8703020393441.369245580680.72956374538107164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026191-9447.06631.31639.191101.4211528003.153.15FF15.066143.06698416.7672905654142.2690190584760.72778126102299164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 16:00:11FORECAST2026191-9446.77831.49639.137101.3149792003.153.15FF14.778143.77898416.7184359380542.2198196693210.71817732263131164111123DRYL
2026-04-04 12:00:11FORECAST2026191-9445.66231.85638.759100.4708056003.153.15FF13.662141.66298416.3295294595441.8289632198690.67950003545514163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 08:00:13FORECAST2026191-9444.76230.84837.805100.554052003.153.15FF12.762141.76298416.3679177244541.8674812499960.64679438246735163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 04:00:16FORECAST2026191-9443.5230.00236.761100.64463771667003.153.15FF11.52135.5298416.4096812226141.9094015083620.59986814541487163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2026191-9440.58626.5133.548102.317144003.153.15FF8.586132.58698417.1790468633342.6845686116980.48438543697721162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 20:00:03FORECAST2026191-9438.51625.21431.865102.9428696003.153.15FF6.516123.51698417.4660463187842.9751527686220.40312288575289162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026191-9439.77626.07832.927102.7083824003.153.15FF7.776127.77698417.3585482996242.8662213766660.45231827798231162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 12:00:04FORECAST2026191-9436.28424.1730.227102.8904224003.153.15FF4.284119.28498417.4420080483142.9507845355950.32006060188369162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 08:00:04FORECAST2026191-9434.03422.33428.184103.1808992003.153.15FF2.034112.03498417.5751028473643.0857745953230.24459462379405161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 04:00:25FORECAST2026191-9434.0342328.517102.90474246667003.153.15FF2.034117.03498417.4485717219542.9574377661250.24459462379405161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026191-9439.68621.66830.67796.450794642022002.832.83FF7.686120.68698414.4660469865839.9755795839940.4487705451326162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2026191-9439.0221.27230.14694.8945552002.872.87FF7.02119.0298413.7395254500939.2616282362450.42266291527762162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026191-9439.4721.16430.31794.638912002.872.87FF7.47119.4798413.6199050100139.144537791690.44027321126722162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026191-9442.27825.62833.95395.330421550754002.872.87FF10.278125.27898413.9432967907439.461388981170.5514526966517163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026191-9442.36826.79834.58395.281421354935002.972.97FF10.368129.36898413.9204000231239.4389240420060.55499607110112163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2026191-9438.9326.29432.61296.20633948465300.013.143.15FF6.93127.9398414.3521145243339.8633001961110.41915816114722162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026191-9439.41624.87232.144101.55173553687003.433.43FF7.416119.41698416.8273587276842.3295416980460.43815301205185162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 20:00:03FORECAST2026191-9440.96428.00434.48493.488419911291003.523.52FF8.964123.96498413.0806049188338.6182530498620.4993975041618163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2026191-9441.16228.07634.61993.229154753517003.483.48FF9.162125.16298412.958855071838.4998050063240.50726265578233163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2026191-9437.34623.14430.24597.4811480721350.0208661530.0608661533.423.480866153FF5.346124.34698414.945483925140.4493621603660.35875940940454162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2026191-9437.34623.14430.24598.1953379443430.0208661530.0608661533.553.610866153FF5.346123.34698415.2770703049540.7782722591320.35875940940454162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026191-9436.17621.81228.99498.24242095176800.023.623.64FF4.176119.17698415.2989090284340.7999702415810.31622403242228162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026191-9434.86224.51229.68798.92510746753700.223.443.66TF2.862113.86298415.6152692895941.1147851796220.27121674934895162112124DRYL
2026-03-31 20:00:04FORECAST2026191-9432.16221.72226.94297.82190965945700.223.163.38FF0.162115.16298415.1037688478140.6062433755310.18995429782514161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 16:00:04FORECAST2026191-9431.76621.43426.697.00165038440900.23.023.22FF-0.234115.76698414.7225234589640.2287692271060.17943589679107161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2026191-9449.9120.28235.09697.00751858135100.122.93.02FF17.91123.9198414.7252537392440.2314677582650.81310288160767164112126DRYL
2026-03-31 08:00:08FORECAST2026191-9449.9120.28235.09697.83335145710800.123.153.27FF17.91122.9198415.1090812250440.6115126365260.81310288160767164112126DRYL
2026-03-31 04:00:10FORECAST2026191-9443.05220.94832100.188673832990.2078741280.5178741283.223.737874128TF11.052110.05298416.1993667607341.6984626058860.5817624072726163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026191-9436.12224.15230.13799.5056686215020.1039370640.9239370643.073.993937064TF4.122111.12298415.8838728774641.3828028395710.31431310187349162113126DRYL
2026-03-30 20:00:04FORECAST2026191-9436.12224.15230.13798.8888197493840.1039370640.9239370642.963.883937064TF4.122113.12298415.5984671850641.0980419095830.31431310187349162113126DRYL
2026-03-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026191-9429.15622.74825.952101.258538448650.1007874560.94078745633.940787456TF-2.84497.15698416.6924599761942.1936694797630.11946936745977161113124.5DRYL
2026-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2026191-9443.93438.46241.19899.0748686177120.2779529060.94795290633.947952906TF11.934118.93498415.684595997241.183896734830.61570909302073163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-30 08:00:05FORECAST2026191-9443.93438.46241.19899.3865370485380.2779529060.9479529062.953.897952906TF11.934114.93498415.828787520141.3277831967150.61570909302073163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2026191-9438.40837.54437.976100.1809846582600.462.93.36FF6.408104.40898416.1958180211641.694906860010.39896526168265162112124DRYL