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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 8, 2026

[ Tuesday, April 7, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 9, 2026 ]

DAY 190 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/09/2026 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.767
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 93 in
SWE DAY: 97
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -95

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-04-09 04:00:07OBSERVATION2026190-9548.3000829.7199439.0100192.978816666667003.153.15FF16.30008168.3000897412.13666005529 38.3199789568930.7673972166261116 4111123DRYL
2026-04-09 00:00:01FORECAST2026190-9541.52227.2334.37694.5092792003.153.15FF9.522161.52297412.8573900068339.0188543419390.52462203654402163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-08 12:00:02FORECAST2026190-9541.39627.21234.30494.5254168003.153.15FF9.396161.39697412.8649746561939.0262338114980.51967200625101163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026190-9543.71825.95234.83594.4739536003.153.15FF11.718163.71897412.8407859392239.0027012550090.60962615485214163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-08 04:00:04FORECAST2026190-9544.67226.88835.7893.9178829003.153.15FF12.672164.67297412.5792200052538.7485668714260.64521620112824163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-08 00:00:01FORECAST2026190-9544.63627.01435.82596.1027888003.153.15FF12.636163.63697413.6048389568339.7485784849260.64389373026704163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 20:00:02FORECAST2026190-9544.58227.24835.91596.3806704003.153.15FF12.582163.58297413.734872136439.8760443443640.64190678017529163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 16:00:01FORECAST2026190-9543.71827.80635.76296.44896003.153.15FF11.718162.71897413.7668138358939.9073788769850.60962615485214163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 12:00:13FORECAST2026190-9543.82628.09435.9696.1447072003.153.15FF11.826162.82697413.6244603222739.7678026284430.61370804119967163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 08:00:06FORECAST2026190-9544.0628.25636.15896.133096003.153.15FF12.06164.0697413.6190255053539.7624774863330.62250853987016163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 04:00:11FORECAST2026190-9543.8828.72436.30295.717486233333003.153.15FF11.88162.8897413.4243867974339.5719430518070.61574430749368163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-07 00:00:11FORECAST2026190-9544.0628.88636.47395.8418912003.153.15FF12.06154.0697413.4826697821439.6289610503460.62250853987016163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 20:00:03FORECAST2026190-9544.72627.91436.3298.0963928003.153.15FF12.726153.72697414.5357055164540.6644573979670.64719662771739163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9545.39227.1436.26698.022396003.153.15FF13.392155.39297414.5012386150840.6304045540180.67128016666393163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2026190-9545.01426.94235.97896.8510424003.153.15FF13.014154.01497413.9547710922540.0919510867380.65769054971478163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 08:00:03FORECAST2026190-9544.9629.5737.26596.8082384003.153.15FF12.96155.9697413.9347710824440.0722960009980.6557318906307163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 04:00:19FORECAST2026190-9545.30229.96637.63496.789139216667003.153.15FF13.302156.30297413.9258463584540.0635263685650.66806417426604163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-06 00:00:13FORECAST2026190-9545.08627.84236.46497.4624216003.153.15FF13.086145.08697414.2401985430140.3728528740660.6602955072023163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 20:00:13FORECAST2026190-9543.64625.77234.70999.9470808003.153.15FF11.646141.64697415.3956320367841.5175807991480.60689813936574163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 16:00:10FORECAST2026190-9544.54626.00635.27699.8649168003.153.15FF12.546143.54697415.3575400283141.479646177180.64058000530519163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 12:00:04FORECAST2026190-9544.43826.25835.34898.4998136003.153.15FF12.438142.43897414.7235006289840.8501875074940.63658956155592163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 08:00:12FORECAST2026190-9544.76225.91635.33998.335092003.153.15FF12.762145.76297414.646844853840.7743356362080.64851470481393163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 04:00:23FORECAST2026190-9545.24826.65435.95198.365475133333003.153.15FF13.248146.24897414.6609865329340.7883249595680.66612860331339163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-05 00:00:12FORECAST2026190-9543.17825.62834.403100.3217688003.153.15FF11.178138.17897415.5692401910141.6906412348340.58904362110822163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 20:00:03FORECAST2026190-9542.51224.90833.71102.2680816003.153.15FF10.512137.51297416.4683924564842.591423543560.56332281791097163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 16:00:11FORECAST2026190-9542.87225.62834.25102.1479352003.153.15FF10.872138.87297416.4130161868642.5357297938920.57726645684825163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 12:00:11FORECAST2026190-9542.15226.63634.394101.2405888003.153.15FF10.152138.15297415.9942680702442.1155046368560.54930005546319163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 08:00:13FORECAST2026190-9541.7225.9733.845101.2224832003.153.15FF9.72138.7297415.9859023563342.10712601270.53239269056216163111122.5DRYL
2026-04-04 04:00:16FORECAST2026190-9539.50624.33231.919101.23484091667003.153.15FF7.506133.50697415.9916122956242.1128446934150.44548520092627162111122DRYL
2026-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2026190-9539.32621.16430.245102.6909656003.153.15FF7.326134.32697416.6631681217842.7875430643810.43847788966498162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 20:00:02FORECAST2026190-9537.05820.42628.742103.206188003.153.15FF5.058127.05897416.9001912757543.0266795180410.35252252201163162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9538.35421.09229.723103.0377272003.153.15FF6.354130.35497416.822726617442.9484663959630.40102458816468162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 12:00:03FORECAST2026190-9536.03219.4927.761103.0466816003.153.15FF4.032125.03297416.8268450239442.9526231815140.31571518664263162111122DRYL
2026-04-03 08:00:03FORECAST2026190-9532.64818.33825.493103.2348224003.153.15FF0.648119.64897416.9133551621843.0399761763560.20795770857567161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 04:00:25FORECAST2026190-9533.20619.09426.15102.96142086667003.153.15FF1.206125.20697416.7876271653842.9130462925950.22408298852981161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-03 00:00:03FORECAST2026190-9532.6320.10226.36696.641985842022002.832.83FF0.63122.6397413.8570695653339.9959690575530.20744918532044161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-02 20:00:04FORECAST2026190-9533.5319.92226.72695.0626224002.872.87FF1.53121.5397413.1172831828739.2720122981270.2337623131695161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-02 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9532.12619.88626.00694.8202632002.872.87FF0.126122.12697413.003497333439.1611003196740.19351048488612161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-02 12:00:03FORECAST2026190-9536.39222.29829.34595.667835150754002.872.87FF4.392125.39297413.4011204190439.5491902393860.32844645914119162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 08:00:03FORECAST2026190-9538.15621.79429.97595.814454154935002.972.97FF6.156129.15697413.4698172731439.6163848515660.39349381583999162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 04:00:05FORECAST2026190-9537.05822.3729.71496.52741868465300.013.143.15FF5.058131.05897413.8035051726239.9433841969740.35252252201163162111122DRYL
2026-04-02 00:00:04FORECAST2026190-9536.15819.97628.067101.88855873687003.433.43FF4.158122.15897416.2934102240242.4155355793820.32014732468438162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 20:00:02FORECAST2026190-9539.2921.43430.36293.940961511291003.523.52FF7.29125.2997412.5900831303238.7591091192850.43707866644441162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9539.7421.48830.61493.699211553517003.483.48FF7.74125.7497412.4762595794838.6487003071410.45461990244305162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 12:00:03FORECAST2026190-9535.13221.75828.44597.5490192391510.0370078940.0370078943.423.457007894FF3.132129.13297414.280591543740.4126653949030.28485256626265162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 08:00:03FORECAST2026190-9534.26821.12827.69898.2632091113590.0370078940.0370078943.553.587007894FF2.268128.26897414.6133829731140.7412415514540.25664904071235162111122DRYL
2026-04-01 04:00:06FORECAST2026190-9532.52221.09226.80798.3698489517680.0212598540.0212598543.623.641259854FF0.522124.52297414.6630222152340.7903388611950.20441348478118161111121.5DRYL
2026-04-01 00:00:04FORECAST2026190-9533.33225.82629.57998.9849346675370.1311024330.2211024333.443.661102433TF1.332121.33297414.9490730828741.0737068894630.22781990230636161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 20:00:04FORECAST2026190-9533.74625.10629.42697.8228936594570.1311024330.2211024333.163.381102433FF1.746124.74697414.4082803197640.5386171373180.24034160117137161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9534.23224.81829.52597.0016503844090.1362205460.1962205463.023.216220546FF2.232126.23297414.0251248299140.1611204091120.25550621003273162112124DRYL
2026-03-31 12:00:04FORECAST2026190-9531.53221.05626.29497.4147961813510.0492126250.1192126252.93.019212625FF-0.468115.53297414.2179801368440.3509601096810.17783503294768161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 08:00:07FORECAST2026190-9531.53221.05626.29498.2406290571080.0492126250.1192126253.153.269212625FF-0.468114.53297414.6028705723940.7308468139140.17783503294768161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 04:00:09FORECAST2026190-9529.55219.92224.73799.6944236618830.1307087320.3907087323.143.530708732FF-2.448108.55297415.2784724277641.4009479678720.13155083910953161112123DRYL
2026-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2026190-9534.46626.58230.52498.4211941123470.5129924030.8229924033.073.892992403TF2.466117.46697414.686917820440.8139816346530.26298179633393162113126DRYL
2026-03-30 20:00:03FORECAST2026190-9534.46626.58230.52497.8043452402290.5129924030.8229924032.963.782992403TF2.466119.46697414.3996352735140.5300849957150.26298179633393162113126DRYL
2026-03-30 16:00:04FORECAST2026190-9531.9124.45828.184100.112290936280.5185042170.83850421733.838504217TF-0.09109.9197415.4722009618241.5938738586260.18771553055998161113124.5DRYL
2026-03-30 12:00:03FORECAST2026190-9547.06628.88637.97699.4417038177120.2748032980.67480329833.674803298TF15.066117.06697415.161208502141.2843379324690.72859389459121164113129DRYL
2026-03-30 08:00:04FORECAST2026190-9547.06628.88637.97699.7533722485380.2748032980.6748032982.953.624803298TF15.066113.06697415.3058141943741.4281554803130.72859389459121164113129DRYL
2026-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2026190-9551.04427.01439.029100.278991058260.1370079480.4570079482.93.357007948FF19.044108.04497415.5494278813641.670877362780.84159994275332164112126DRYL
2026-03-30 00:00:10FORECAST2026190-9532.86429.08430.974100.174234598390.1629922140.2029922142.582.782992214FF0.86489.86497415.5009013286541.6224847655390.21411706245177161112123DRYL
2026-03-29 20:00:04FORECAST2026190-9532.86429.08430.97499.0672958178630.1629922140.2029922142.833.032992214FF0.86487.86497414.987341923841.1116737630330.21411706245177161112123DRYL
2026-03-29 16:00:03FORECAST2026190-9541.16233.94437.55396.3126522842730.2370080020.4270080022.873.297008002FF9.162114.16297413.703051912739.844838187810.51047161840921163112125DRYL
2026-03-29 12:00:04FORECAST2026190-9547.82247.0347.42696.6029384773630.2881891320.5681891322.93.468189132TF15.822126.82297413.8388152259139.9780456068130.75274080131362164113129DRYL
2026-03-29 08:00:15FORECAST2026190-9547.82247.0347.42696.2678455395820.2881891320.5681891322.833.398189132FF15.822131.82297413.6820874250639.8242832947270.75274080131362164113129DRYL
2026-03-29 04:00:06FORECAST2026190-9537.36436.17636.7797.844698217609002.822.82FF5.364110.36497414.4184424662640.5486474389230.3637930259172162111122DRYL