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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 13, 2026

[ Thursday, March 12, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 14, 2026 ]

DAY 164 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/14/2026 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.328
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 34

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 3.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 7.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 408.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 50.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2026164-12131.6700628.4700230.07004124.535512083333.527.555.4112.96TT-0.3299433.6700671408.64042389624 50.8902444478680.3280285966469517 21151210WETL
2026-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026164-12131.58627.08629.336134.834785382065.1830736659.2130736655.4114.623073665TT-0.41433.58671413.5272843831355.7578626394240.3243835589321721151210WETL
2026-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2026164-12131.85626.63629.246118.070592033875.2748059989.3048059985.4114.714805998TT-0.14433.85671405.506955131347.8784462662030.336149362047791721151210WETL
2026-03-13 08:00:01FORECAST2026164-12131.1926.61828.904117.956049902325.2350421979.2650421975.4114.675042197TT-0.8133.1971405.4509727347.8253951722840.30744202439281721151210WETL
2026-03-13 04:00:04FORECAST2026164-12130.39826.72628.562117.509616617055.1126011869.1426011865.4114.552601186TT-1.60232.39871405.2326232009247.618730193060.274788377705881721151210WETL
2026-03-13 00:00:02FORECAST2026164-12130.39827.1428.769131.596055124164.5425221389.3525221385.4114.762522138TT-1.60230.39871412.0043096194854.2181418400760.274788377705881721151210WETL
2026-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2026164-12129.71426.5128.112113.548736742574.1307108929.1707108925.4114.580710892TT-2.28629.71471403.2844837414745.7924436767260.24803469543089171115127.5WETL
2026-03-12 16:00:01FORECAST2026164-12128.38225.93427.158113.434642929333.9515769378.9915769375.4114.401576937TT-3.61828.38271403.2280763255145.7400328570640.20018410812032171115127.5WETL
2026-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2026164-12128.425.37626.888121.160050410553.4692932128.5092932125.4113.919293212TT-3.628.471407.0107982893349.3134488383750.20079143687819171115127.5WETL
2026-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2026164-12128.2224.92626.573119.112102074572.9271669357.8971669355.4113.307166935TT-3.7828.2271406.0152459011548.3613294136110.19476788260908171115127.5WETL
2026-03-12 04:00:17FORECAST2026164-12128.52624.38626.456117.644380629622.7291353327.3991353325.4112.809135332TT-3.47428.52671405.2985620719447.6810983050290.20507355138901171115127.5WETL
2026-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026164-12127.87823.66625.772127.928652999882.3944894827.8044894825.4113.214489482TT-4.12226.87871410.2645633618452.4845929644650.18362947479724171115127.5WETL
2026-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2026164-12127.66224.00825.835104.684185149682.5881903747.8581903745.4113.268190374TT-4.33824.66271398.8528240443141.7535828797250.17680306594091171115127.5WETL
2026-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026164-12129.01223.66626.339106.484595731222.7956708018.2956708015.4113.705670801TT-2.98825.01271399.7609971744942.5683881732340.22209024251694171115127.5WETL
2026-03-11 12:00:16FORECAST2026164-12129.91221.90225.907115.307684436922.3862217617.8362217615.4113.246221761TT-2.08825.91271404.1520333355346.6018351243940.255633845181421721151210WETL
2026-03-11 08:00:04FORECAST2026164-12130.00221.93825.97114.497643155952.5929147867.7829147865.4113.192914786TT-1.99826.00271403.7529855731646.2287652653060.25912771320391721151210WETL
2026-03-11 04:00:04FORECAST2026164-12130.23621.93826.087115.5196903962.5685053247.6685053245.4113.078505324TT-1.76426.23671404.2563375870246.6995669586730.268325786169951721151210WETL
2026-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026164-12129.80422.17225.988117.111286558252.3948831837.5648831835.6113.174883183TT-2.19620.80471405.0375917280747.4344734717290.251473863718981721151210WETL
2026-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2026164-12129.28222.6425.961112.710999322032.4799225997.4999225995.8313.329922599TT-2.71822.28271402.8699296232845.4078723646370.23188135281331171115127.5WETL
2026-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2026164-12130.0224.00827.014115.443438005852.7102376848.1602376845.8313.990237684TT-1.9823.0271404.2188288428446.6644113083160.259829433533031721151210WETL
2026-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026164-12130.88425.26828.076125.287930842643.63858464210.2285846425.8316.058584642TT-1.11625.88471409.0017807206751.2429868174470.294623907595471721151210WETL
2026-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026164-12130.81225.728.256124.010806266763.58307280110.0230728015.9215.943072801TT-1.18827.81271408.388019512250.6445275693930.291644051638261721151210WETL
2026-03-10 04:00:05FORECAST2026164-12131.51424.94428.229126.180381954493.73582878910.2858287895.9516.235828789TT-0.48631.51471409.4294951220851.6619700779360.321274767610111721151210WETL
2026-03-10 00:00:03FORECAST2026164-12131.65825.2528.454135.331248538333.7291358729.7191358726.115.819135872TT-0.34227.65871413.7596348746755.9946079823510.3275046297331721151210WETL
2026-03-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026164-12131.8224.72828.274128.002613461213.6622067029.8422067025.9715.812206702TT-0.1827.8271410.2998091638852.5194478756110.334570967795981721151210WETL
2026-03-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026164-12131.98226.67229.327129.346285305733.6271673139.9171673136.0215.937167313TT-0.01800000000000126.98271410.938983475953.1534309999190.341696357570311721151210WETL
2026-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026164-12133.45829.49831.478127.544827540875.37165644412.3616564446.0718.431656444TT1.45828.45871410.0815452483452.3037799663920.40893603629341721151210WETL
2026-03-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026164-12133.67430.45232.063127.75229011435.37165644412.2516564446.2218.471656444TT1.67430.67471410.1804910379752.4014970903110.419059809262061721151210WETL
2026-03-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026164-12131.53229.64230.587120.449285967815.26850678212.1185067826.1518.268506782TT-0.46828.53271406.6658667904348.9826132823890.322050804158521721151210WETL
2026-03-09 00:00:03FORECAST2026164-12132.64827.69830.173143.551158769214.25551410911.2255141096.1317.355514109TT0.64825.64871417.5643658581659.9418485796690.371561302309851721151210WETL
2026-03-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026164-12133.42228.2230.821136.16277257084.25551410911.4155141096.0817.495514109TT1.42225.42271414.1481419858756.391559267840.407254437000581721151210WETL
2026-03-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026164-12132.95430.03831.496136.199605601614.21141959711.4514195976.0417.491419597TT0.95426.95471414.1653322518756.4091549065670.385559728505991721151210WETL
2026-03-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026164-12132.3627.06829.714131.541704640712.9452771819.8652771815.9115.775277181TT0.3627.3671411.9786449055854.192373226450.35853927134151721151210WETL
2026-03-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026164-12133.04422.42427.734133.947604555232.9452771819.9952771816.2516.245277181TT1.04426.04471413.1113431867855.3352748344640.38970636438261721151210WETL
2026-03-08 04:00:06FORECAST2026164-12132.82822.87427.851131.097110172153.06653708910.3765370896.0816.456537089TT0.82828.82871411.7685709133853.9816697064620.379776436490441721151210WETL
2026-03-07 23:00:05FORECAST2026164-12129.69622.80226.249140.252233740862.57322973610.2532297365.9216.173229736TT-2.30426.69671416.0469363693658.3515121668420.24734988107651171115127.5WETL
2026-03-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026164-12126.27621.97424.125142.299277256562.57322973610.2332297366.1216.353229736TT-5.72426.27671416.9900257347559.3373792852470.13687329519954171115127.5WETL
2026-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2026164-12126.2419.59822.919141.049466890492.50433206110.0343320616.0516.084332061TT-5.7626.2471416.4148111738858.7350871213810.1359254100959171115127.5WETL
2026-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026164-12129.2120.8425.025126.360312059111.7342529057.1442529055.8813.024252905TT-2.7925.2171409.5156106970651.7465203607560.22924717351358171115127.5WETL
2026-03-07 07:00:08FORECAST2026164-12132.10823.1827.644124.763754542051.7342529057.1442529055.7712.914252905TT0.10826.10871408.7501126582250.9971987247260.347277727935281721151210WETL
2026-03-07 03:00:09FORECAST2026164-12130.45224.22427.338126.252164647831.7224418757.1724418755.8313.002441875TT-1.54823.45271409.4638554475151.6956980952930.276959479226311721151210WETL
2026-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026164-12131.38825.32228.355131.698810715882.5779541488.2079541485.713.907954148TT-0.61223.38871412.052821915454.2668665983810.315864480830691721151210WETL
2026-03-06 19:00:04FORECAST2026164-12131.06417.74424.404133.383064729562.5862218698.2262218695.5213.746221869TT-0.93624.06471412.8461789060555.0666886043750.302134247776371721151210WETL
2026-03-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026164-12130.48820.15625.322134.595961951282.5862218698.4362218695.3813.816221869TT-1.51224.48871413.4154078415755.6440445039160.278411525382131721151210WETL
2026-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026164-12123.23415.3519.292117.588788303730.2122048394.9222048395.5110.432204839TT-8.76616.23471405.271363960547.6553686223130.072002105669054171115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026164-12122.06414.34218.203119.552687405440.2122048394.9222048395.3910.312204839TT-9.93614.06471406.2298614760248.5658716437960.054556349843752171115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:08FORECAST2026164-12121.57813.22617.402120.693832471830.1909449854.8309449855.3110.140944985TT-10.42211.57871406.7846146289749.0963941301480.048370991237303171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:03FORECAST2026164-12130.43414.922.667141.707091534363.3606317367.8606317365.4613.320631736TT-1.56620.43471416.7177049286359.0518539563080.276234847494581721151210WETL
2026-03-05 19:00:04FORECAST2026164-12130.45220.7525.601139.041872188633.3606317367.8606317365.2113.070631736TT-1.54820.45271415.4870018927757.770090613210.276959479226311721151210WETL
2026-03-05 15:00:15FORECAST2026164-12130.36221.43425.898138.148096377363.3614191387.8014191385.2413.041419138TT-1.63820.36271415.0724192135557.3414645730990.273345647325191721151210WETL
2026-03-05 11:00:10FORECAST2026164-12129.85821.93825.898129.37925154681.5988197616.9988197614.9911.988819761TT-2.14223.85871410.9546378614253.1690034661980.253549378731281721151210WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:07FORECAST2026164-12129.91221.81225.862129.926159502111.6244103267.0944103264.8811.974410326TT-2.08819.91271411.2141520087753.4274755034170.255633845181421721151210WETL
2026-03-05 03:00:24FORECAST2026164-12129.73221.86625.799129.669722284251.5834654227.0034654224.7711.773465422TT-2.26818.73271411.0925144720753.3062521847260.24872051853153171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026164-12127.12216.7921.956113.104699359010.4023624225.0223624225.0410.062362422TT-4.87820.12271403.0648618397445.5885300205630.16044804765214171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:12FORECAST2026164-12127.12216.82621.974114.308823122310.4035435255.0235435254.969.983543525TT-4.87816.12271403.6598497725246.1418823692250.16044804765214171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:09FORECAST2026164-12126.45616.30421.38113.293211305320.3814962695.0414962694.829.861496269TT-5.54418.45671403.1581305362945.6750792723080.14168020939246171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:12FORECAST2026164-12128.07616.41222.244128.971424446642.0185050275.7785050275.3311.108505027TT-3.92416.07671410.7608844082852.9764163690980.19002892182511171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:07FORECAST2026164-12128.07616.41222.244128.087866491582.0185050275.7785050275.2511.028505027TT-3.92418.07671410.3404282171652.5596299855790.19002892182511171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 03:00:08FORECAST2026164-12127.7719.83223.801135.79661155272.1082688556.2682688555.5511.818268855TT-4.2314.7771413.9771642601556.2166961667250.18019602869413171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026164-12127.55413.40620.48125.469573073310.2562993515.2862993515.4310.716299351TT-4.44622.55471409.0889128295551.3282112417470.17345067373771171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:05FORECAST2026164-12126.38413.94620.165120.727758253440.2311024875.0211024875.0310.051102487TT-5.61629.38471406.8010826160549.1121827593090.13974393323968171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2026164-12127.19417.97822.586118.589234135220.2633859695.0233859694.729.743385969TT-4.80629.19471405.7602374218548.1187957983830.16256986744347171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:04FORECAST2026164-12120.5719.02219.796110.588811994240.2251969723.8451969724.68.445196972TT-11.4325.5771401.8158096613344.4363330309490.037326480192382171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026164-12120.5719.02219.796110.584434293970.2251969723.8451969724.738.575196972TT-11.4328.5771401.8136293187644.4343328898230.037326480192382171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2026164-12121.09219.68820.39110.894515844440.0641732633.5141732634.88.314173263TT-10.90823.09271401.9680075413444.5760475812520.042758004660003171115127.5WETL