Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 11, 2026

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DAY 162 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 11:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.08°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.37°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.23°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.219 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records: Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 18 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.14 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.04 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.27 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.31 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5) Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 99 in SWE DAY: 69 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 394.62 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 39.22 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units. Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.084	17.366	23.225	99.390082346192	2.135827925	3.035827925	5.27	8.305827925	T	T	-2.916	18.084	69	394.61907632572	39.221222491391	0.21895802929761	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-06 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.516	17.942	23.729	98.434201585475	2.135434224	3.035434224	5.09	8.125434224	T	T	-2.484	18.516	69	394.12492337946	38.795372157794	0.23495302718023	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-06 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.696	17.798	23.747	100.1101635611	2.437402891	3.327402891	4.96	8.287402891	T	T	-2.304	20.696	69	394.99053860594	39.542567424928	0.24180314059769	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-06 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	30.488	18.428	24.458	105.13395929685	2.776773153	3.946773153	4.81	8.756773153	T	T	-1.512	21.488	69	397.56330313551	41.79740412977	0.2731872482718	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-06 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	30.398	17.834	24.116	105.36799566061	2.778347957	4.008347957	4.63	8.638347957	T	T	-1.602	21.398	69	397.68235836871	41.902993010895	0.2695219155275	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-06 03:00:08	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.84	17.69	23.765	105.12884850649	2.703938468	3.893938468	4.59	8.483938468	T	T	-2.16	19.84	69	397.56070246633	41.795098861718	0.2473602004194	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.156	18.968	24.062	99.763100232639	2.293702026	3.483702026	4.74	8.223702026	T	T	-2.844	23.156	69	394.81158676091	39.387627903036	0.2215796193432	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.372	19.418	24.395	99.735744047296	2.293702026	3.473702026	4.5	7.973702026	T	T	-2.628	21.372	69	394.79747473097	39.375419890287	0.22955093412109	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 15:00:14	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.336	19.256	24.296	99.223972786889	2.259056338	3.469056338	4.5	7.969056338	T	T	-2.664	21.336	69	394.53329029184	39.14716045944	0.22821134764523	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 11:00:10	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.282	19.652	24.467	99.18821239533	2.405119409	3.455119409	4.41	7.865119409	T	T	-2.718	23.282	69	394.51481737104	39.131219498504	0.22621021866538	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	27.734	17.906	22.82	99.695988663193	2.433859582	3.483859582	4.3	7.783859582	T	T	-4.266	19.734	69	394.77696467143	39.357679794373	0.17318909906555	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-05 03:00:23	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	27.986	18.68	23.333	99.237085157406	2.430316273	3.450316273	4.22	7.670316273	T	T	-4.014	18.986	69	394.54006339296	39.153005868935	0.18123681443384	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-04 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	30.704	18.59	24.647	95.307802641961	2.590158879	3.460158879	4.64	8.100158879	T	T	-1.296	19.704	69	392.50029252881	37.408340417248	0.2820834521543	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-04 19:00:11	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	28.796	18.086	23.441	95.559604604198	2.585040766	3.465040766	4.55	8.015040766	T	T	-3.204	18.796	69	392.63161945293	37.519722310028	0.20865143077368	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-04 15:00:08	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	30.596	18.068	24.332	94.683324243769	2.603151012	3.413151012	4.48	7.893151012	T	T	-1.404	20.596	69	392.17423409629	37.132360166991	0.27761796136724	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-04 11:00:12	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.064	17.168	24.116	96.444198986816	2.040158582	2.930158582	4.91	7.840158582	T	T	-0.936	21.064	69	393.09231301106	37.911473256226	0.29721283347529	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-04 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	30.542	17.456	23.999	95.560641031758	2.040158582	2.930158582	4.83	7.760158582	T	T	-1.458	22.542	69	392.63215982656	37.52018088271	0.27539822591875	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-04 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.894	17.276	23.585	96.834130283112	1.971260907	2.851260907	5.14	7.991260907	T	T	-2.106	19.894	69	393.29505934619	38.084385016433	0.24946153526044	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.352	16.466	23.909	107.66306714385	3.023229979	4.133229979	4.79	8.923229979	T	T	-0.648	23.352	69	398.84612803747	42.940997462962	0.30957665051925	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-03 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.154	22.424	26.789	103.97445815118	3.064962285	4.034962285	4.53	8.564962285	T	T	-0.846	32.154	69	396.9724152419	41.274991775741	0.30105228391869	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-03 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	32.09	21.308	26.699	100.94869614732	2.927954337	3.827954337	4.29	8.117954337	T	T	0.090000000000003	32.09	69	395.42225003393	39.917360568564	0.34223021808447	17	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-03-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.282	22.316	25.799	89.903592955186	1.588977236	1.938977236	4.72	6.658977236	T	T	-2.718	34.282	69	389.66139411618	35.031959366972	0.22621021866538	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-03 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.282	22.316	25.799	89.89921525492	1.588977236	1.938977236	4.85	6.788977236	T	T	-2.718	37.282	69	389.65907862356	35.030045385213	0.22621021866538	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-03 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	26.672	18.338	22.505	90.482602457847	1.356693646	1.896693646	4.73	6.626693646	T	T	-5.328	31.672	69	389.96742224	35.285267238054	0.14181398083994	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.552	18.752	24.152	91.948209848187	1.336221194	1.806221194	4.28	6.086221194	T	T	-2.448	24.552	69	390.74004196169	35.927847374383	0.23631442601536	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	29.624	18.59	24.107	92.083555743862	1.341733008	1.801733008	4.24	6.041733008	T	T	-2.376	23.624	69	390.8112468768	35.987289237108	0.23905018572783	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	28.364	18.32	23.342	95.278202930254	1.088189564	2.168189564	4.46	6.628189564	T	T	-3.636	19.364	69	392.48484932708	37.395251121235	0.19373855644952	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	28.256	18.806	23.531	95.163514543425	1.042913949	2.392913949	3.65	6.042913949	T	T	-3.744	25.256	69	392.42500143046	37.344542330831	0.19011419861421	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	28.508	18.662	23.585	95.227031595764	1.066536009	2.326536009	3.8	6.126536009	T	T	-3.492	21.508	69	392.45814871875	37.372624528056	0.19863590731465	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-02 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	28.418	18.482	23.45	93.418179507917	0.881496539	2.081496539	3.91	5.991496539	T	T	-3.582	21.418	69	391.51207766778	36.574345551086	0.19556639184545	17	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-03-01 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	22.73	20.156	21.443	84.463627260635	0	0.65	4.29	4.94	T	F	-9.27	-2.27	69	386.76408378613	32.667497410713	0.059687501689993	17	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-03-01 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	22.658	20.768	21.713	85.541599897058	0	0.64	4.5	5.14	T	F	-9.342	-6.342	69	387.3413938736	33.133802538304	0.058642170954321	17	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-03-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	20.3	17.924	19.112	84.034014691896	0	0.56	4.22	4.78	T	F	-11.7	-7.7	69	386.53356316109	32.48196712559	0.031650044749403	17	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-03-01 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.946	28.976	30.461	87.429221399473	0	0.7	5.14	5.84	T	F	-0.053999999999998	14.946	69	388.34851317725	33.95300813873	0.33575559407316	17	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-03-01 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.946	28.976	30.461	87.322913592264	0	0.7	5.2	5.9	T	F	-0.053999999999998	14.946	69	388.29192206116	33.90678195872	0.33575559407316	17	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-03-01 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	162	-123	31.964	29.894	30.929	87.826886103205	0	0.7	5.28	5.98	T	F	-0.036000000000001	14.964	69	388.56006764104	34.126020804963	0.33656231130627	17	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L