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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 11, 2026

[ Tuesday, March 10, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 12, 2026 ]

DAY 162 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/12/2026 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.375
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 27

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 394.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-12 04:00:09OBSERVATION2026162-12332.8122.0200827.4150498.922046252.573.145.318.45TT0.8126.8169394.37726988577 39.0126065315890.3752687269255317 21151210WETL
2026-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.96419.23825.601111.221682870673.8527579864.4227579865.319.732757986TT-0.03600000000000125.96469400.6372458374844.5595487027160.336562311306271721151210WETL
2026-03-11 12:00:03FORECAST2026162-12331.15417.58224.36897.6010754642653.6563011874.2263011875.319.536301187TT-0.84625.15469393.6932501384438.4248846165340.301052283918691721151210WETL
2026-03-11 08:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.3717.74424.55796.9666697219153.6460649614.2160649615.319.526064961TT-0.6325.3769393.363928042238.1431900909830.31035678738181721151210WETL
2026-03-11 04:00:03FORECAST2026162-12331.26217.83424.54897.9107356788213.5177184354.0877184355.319.397718435TT-0.73825.26269393.8538031429138.5625156156230.305688867700491721151210WETL
2026-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.17217.99624.58497.0136498326523.1767733693.9467733695.319.256773369TT-0.82821.17269393.3883337693838.1640380605530.301822846190991721151210WETL
2026-03-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026162-12330.99216.44823.7293.1123545641783.212600164.202600165.319.51260016TT-1.00821.99269391.3516942034536.4396777099630.294157468023891721151210WETL
2026-03-10 16:00:01FORECAST2026162-12330.86618.93224.89995.104694380973.5267735584.5167735585.319.826773558TT-1.13421.86669392.394300512237.3185400270480.288845760833471721151210WETL
2026-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2026162-12330.93819.61625.27796.9084123044373.4275609064.4175609065.319.727560906TT-1.06221.93869393.3336598147338.1173404785390.291875502588311721151210WETL
2026-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026162-12332.07219.81425.94396.8291468587883.3626002414.4426002415.319.752600241TT0.07200000000000324.07269393.2924694613838.0821742839310.341418302201251721151210WETL
2026-03-10 04:00:05FORECAST2026162-12332.66619.63426.1597.229206737113.3885845074.4985845075.319.808584507TT0.66624.66669393.5002762318338.2597197088550.368578221790171721151210WETL
2026-03-10 00:00:03FORECAST2026162-12332.25220.53426.393105.390871259952.8063007284.0663007285.319.376300728TT0.25222.25269397.6939914810641.9133162570370.349569889668921721151210WETL
2026-03-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026162-12332.46820.64226.55598.9254078590282.8023637183.9323637185.319.242363718TT0.46821.46869394.3790076545239.0141041832620.35944379302681721151210WETL
2026-03-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.58620.6626.12399.244018522352.8003952133.9803952135.319.290395213TT-0.41420.58669394.5436446818139.1560967806770.319784165017161721151210WETL
2026-03-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026162-12331.71220.69626.204103.367568834273.1566946184.3866946185.319.696694618TT-0.28820.71269396.662446751441.0020327685440.325338199459291721151210WETL
2026-03-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026162-12332.4520.8426.645103.101279866392.8791354134.2591354135.319.569135413TT0.4523.4569396.5262888652740.8823678826790.358617266591271721151210WETL
2026-03-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026162-12331.87420.46226.16897.0365591437862.9539386034.2639386035.319.573938603TT-0.12622.87469393.4002338854838.1742050626070.332536314118351721151210WETL
2026-03-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.49619.77825.637107.251005304993.4610254914.7510254915.3110.061025491TT-0.50420.49669398.6376818112742.7542921267110.315841479301061721151210WETL
2026-03-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.2819.68825.484101.833840839073.5661436584.8661436585.2510.116143658TT-0.7218.2869395.8769628325540.3136716249430.306464694595171721151210WETL
2026-03-08 16:00:03FORECAST2026162-12332.07220.04826.06101.765909731333.6051200574.8651200575.2510.115120057TT0.07200000000000320.07269395.8421017573840.2832315953030.341418302201251721151210WETL
2026-03-08 12:00:03FORECAST2026162-12333.27819.97626.627103.116904055193.8287422254.9587422255.2510.208742225TT1.27821.27869396.5342803109440.8893873374190.397263470530981721151210WETL
2026-03-08 08:00:02FORECAST2026162-12332.97219.65226.312104.447991665343.9594509575.2394509575.4410.679450957TT0.97219.97269397.2139406634741.4881983637750.382840538786761721151210WETL
2026-03-08 04:00:06FORECAST2026162-12333.51219.95826.735101.294485368143.9885848315.2485848315.2910.538584831TT1.51221.51269395.6000091026140.0720993336790.408389496109521721151210WETL
2026-03-07 23:00:05FORECAST2026162-12333.22419.38226.303106.421539525563.8440965645.1340965645.110.234096564TT1.22423.22469398.2174248228242.3789114155470.394707397199551721151210WETL
2026-03-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026162-12332.77419.56226.168107.803111063143.8224430095.1624430095.2510.412443009TT0.77424.77469398.9169212080743.0044851619590.373592490765321721151210WETL
2026-03-07 15:00:02FORECAST2026162-12332.05419.56225.808107.527151244693.7657500655.1157500655.1710.285750065TT0.05400000000000225.05469398.7773975259542.8793975367370.34060711914811721151210WETL
2026-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026162-12331.20818.89625.052103.147076825012.6795290063.9195290065.119.029529006TT-0.79223.20869396.5497121538340.9029436244660.303366621059971721151210WETL
2026-03-07 07:00:08FORECAST2026162-12330.68618.64424.665102.882663624752.6795290063.8995290065.028.919529006TT-1.31420.68669396.4144379612840.7841732767670.281336810319331721151210WETL
2026-03-07 03:00:09FORECAST2026162-12329.9317.99623.963103.898766509982.7094502823.9394502825.079.009450282TT-2.0720.9369396.9337818400841.2409303193250.250867669821541721151210WETL
2026-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026162-12329.08417.36623.22599.3900823461922.1358279253.0358279255.278.305827925TT-2.91618.08469394.6190763257239.2212224913910.21895802929761171115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026162-12329.51617.94223.72998.4342015854752.1354342243.0354342245.098.125434224TT-2.48418.51669394.1249233794638.7953721577940.23495302718023171115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026162-12329.69617.79823.747100.11016356112.4374028913.3274028914.968.287402891TT-2.30420.69669394.9905386059439.5425674249280.24180314059769171115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026162-12330.48818.42824.458105.133959296852.7767731533.9467731534.818.756773153TT-1.51221.48869397.5633031355141.797404129770.27318724827181721151210WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026162-12330.39817.83424.116105.367995660612.7783479574.0083479574.638.638347957TT-1.60221.39869397.6823583687141.9029930108950.26952191552751721151210WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:08FORECAST2026162-12329.8417.6923.765105.128848506492.7039384683.8939384684.598.483938468TT-2.1619.8469397.5607024663341.7950988617180.2473602004194171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:03FORECAST2026162-12329.15618.96824.06299.7631002326392.2937020263.4837020264.748.223702026TT-2.84423.15669394.8115867609139.3876279030360.2215796193432171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 19:00:04FORECAST2026162-12329.37219.41824.39599.7357440472962.2937020263.4737020264.57.973702026TT-2.62821.37269394.7974747309739.3754198902870.22955093412109171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 15:00:14FORECAST2026162-12329.33619.25624.29699.2239727868892.2590563383.4690563384.57.969056338TT-2.66421.33669394.5332902918439.147160459440.22821134764523171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 11:00:10FORECAST2026162-12329.28219.65224.46799.188212395332.4051194093.4551194094.417.865119409TT-2.71823.28269394.5148173710439.1312194985040.22621021866538171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:07FORECAST2026162-12327.73417.90622.8299.6959886631932.4338595823.4838595824.37.783859582TT-4.26619.73469394.7769646714339.3576797943730.17318909906555171115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 03:00:23FORECAST2026162-12327.98618.6823.33399.2370851574062.4303162733.4503162734.227.670316273TT-4.01418.98669394.5400633929639.1530058689350.18123681443384171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026162-12330.70418.5924.64795.3078026419612.5901588793.4601588794.648.100158879TT-1.29619.70469392.5002925288137.4083404172480.28208345215431721151210WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:11FORECAST2026162-12328.79618.08623.44195.5596046041982.5850407663.4650407664.558.015040766TT-3.20418.79669392.6316194529337.5197223100280.20865143077368171115127.5WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:08FORECAST2026162-12330.59618.06824.33294.6833242437692.6031510123.4131510124.487.893151012TT-1.40420.59669392.1742340962937.1323601669910.277617961367241721151210WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:12FORECAST2026162-12331.06417.16824.11696.4441989868162.0401585822.9301585824.917.840158582TT-0.93621.06469393.0923130110637.9114732562260.297212833475291721151210WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026162-12330.54217.45623.99995.5606410317582.0401585822.9301585824.837.760158582TT-1.45822.54269392.6321598265637.520180882710.275398225918751721151210WETL
2026-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2026162-12329.89417.27623.58596.8341302831121.9712609072.8512609075.147.991260907TT-2.10619.89469393.2950593461938.0843850164330.249461535260441721151210WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026162-12331.35216.46623.909107.663067143853.0232299794.1332299794.798.923229979TT-0.64823.35269398.8461280374742.9409974629620.309576650519251721151210WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026162-12331.15422.42426.789103.974458151183.0649622854.0349622854.538.564962285TT-0.84632.15469396.972415241941.2749917757410.301052283918691721151210WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2026162-12332.0921.30826.699100.948696147322.9279543373.8279543374.298.117954337TT0.09000000000000332.0969395.4222500339339.9173605685640.342230218084471721151210WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026162-12329.28222.31625.79989.9035929551861.5889772361.9389772364.726.658977236TT-2.71834.28269389.6613941161835.0319593669720.22621021866538171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026162-12329.28222.31625.79989.899215254921.5889772361.9389772364.856.788977236TT-2.71837.28269389.6590786235635.0300453852130.22621021866538171115127.5WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2026162-12326.67218.33822.50590.4826024578471.3566936461.8966936464.736.626693646TT-5.32831.67269389.9674222435.2852672380540.14181398083994171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026162-12329.55218.75224.15291.9482098481871.3362211941.8062211944.286.086221194TT-2.44824.55269390.7400419616935.9278473743830.23631442601536171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2026162-12329.62418.5924.10792.0835557438621.3417330081.8017330084.246.041733008TT-2.37623.62469390.811246876835.9872892371080.23905018572783171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026162-12328.36418.3223.34295.2782029302541.0881895642.1681895644.466.628189564TT-3.63619.36469392.4848493270837.3952511212350.19373855644952171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2026162-12328.25618.80623.53195.1635145434251.0429139492.3929139493.656.042913949TT-3.74425.25669392.4250014304637.3445423308310.19011419861421171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 07:00:05FORECAST2026162-12328.50818.66223.58595.2270315957641.0665360092.3265360093.86.126536009TT-3.49221.50869392.4581487187537.3726245280560.19863590731465171115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2026162-12328.41818.48223.4593.4181795079170.8814965392.0814965393.915.991496539TT-3.58221.41869391.5120776677836.5743455510860.19556639184545171115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 23:00:04FORECAST2026162-12322.7320.15621.44384.46362726063500.654.294.94TF-9.27-2.2769386.7640837861332.6674974107130.059687501689993171113124.5WETL
2026-03-01 19:00:04FORECAST2026162-12322.65820.76821.71385.54159989705800.644.55.14TF-9.342-6.34269387.341393873633.1338025383040.058642170954321171113124.5WETL
2026-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026162-12320.317.92419.11284.03401469189600.564.224.78TF-11.7-7.769386.5335631610932.481967125590.031650044749403171113124.5WETL
2026-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2026162-12331.94628.97630.46187.42922139947300.75.145.84TF-0.05399999999999814.94669388.3485131772533.953008138730.33575559407316172113126WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2026162-12331.94628.97630.46187.32291359226400.75.25.9TF-0.05399999999999814.94669388.2919220611633.906781958720.33575559407316172113126WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:07FORECAST2026162-12331.96429.89430.92987.82688610320500.75.285.98TF-0.03600000000000114.96469388.5600676410434.1260208049630.33656231130627172113126WETL