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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 9, 2026

[ Sunday, March 8, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 10, 2026 ]

DAY 160 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 11:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 19.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.048
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 17

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.71 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.82 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 84 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026160-12519.79614.7217.25883.8517580742960.3417324681.7117324683.114.821732468TF-12.20416.79667384.8224409334132.2680382187080.047759089799063161115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026160-12519.81414.1816.99783.2212429195110.3480316841.6080316843.114.718031684TF-12.18616.81467384.4809220131331.9969802087730.047957959993323161115127.5WETL
2026-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026160-12519.88614.43217.15983.5303092773560.3539371991.4939371993.114.603937199TF-12.11417.88667384.6483963375832.1297995091170.048760055948008161114126WETL
2026-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2026160-12519.79614.75617.27685.1538099788250.3956695051.4656695053.114.575669505TF-12.20416.79667385.5259695587232.8290051537050.047759089799063161114126WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026160-12519.45414.77417.11485.4269323466580.4535435521.4035435523.114.513543552TF-12.54617.45467385.6732488757832.9468825396270.044104132924299161114126WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:08FORECAST2026160-12519.11214.7216.91685.1108802755890.4157482561.4057482563.114.515748256TF-12.88817.11267385.5028107246932.8104835694920.040677429389126161114126WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2026160-12520.9316.19618.56381.0883308100730.4870081371.7070081372.864.567008137TF-11.0718.9367383.3215658817631.0829059408550.061631665817805161115127.5WETL
2026-03-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026160-12520.42616.17818.30281.2240767576180.4846459311.4746459312.864.334645931TF-11.57416.42667383.3955386365931.1409486587460.055121357098487161114126WETL
2026-03-05 15:00:14FORECAST2026160-12521.30816.3418.82480.6790780387420.4614175721.4514175722.864.311417572TF-10.69217.30867383.0983951888330.9080253219560.066895605112675161114126WETL
2026-03-05 11:00:10FORECAST2026160-12523.16215.96219.56280.6715393232120.4110238441.4910238442.864.351023844TF-8.83819.16267383.0942820558430.9048054393650.097845851416407161114126WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026160-12522.33415.06218.69880.1835999556560.4086616381.3586616382.894.248661638TF-9.66619.33467382.8278941118130.6965187133270.082930167441034161114126WETL
2026-03-05 03:00:22FORECAST2026160-12522.38815.00818.69879.4091089258030.3500001891.2400001892.874.110000189TF-9.61217.38867382.4043862859330.3663915642850.083847724014797161114126WETL
2026-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026160-12521.8314.41418.12275.119775387470.3925198971.3725198973.154.522519897TF-10.1713.8367380.0437454442328.5488007951830.074726257951008161114126WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:11FORECAST2026160-12522.04614.68418.36574.736931190970.3933072991.2233072993.234.453307299TF-9.95415.04667379.8317937004928.3874626299360.078163286152148161114126WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:08FORECAST2026160-12522.47815.31418.89674.4238962897970.3153545011.0853545013.234.315354501TF-9.52214.47867379.6583368342128.2556526861060.085393839103789161114126WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:11FORECAST2026160-12522.33415.38618.8677.8958198168440.2925198431.0125198433.354.362519843TF-9.66615.33467381.5744801302629.7230569509320.082930167441034161114126WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026160-12521.52415.85418.68977.3401943823390.2925198431.0525198433.234.282519843TF-10.47613.52467381.268966856429.4874160086270.070055487158658161114126WETL
2026-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2026160-12521.03815.99818.51878.411020066020.2775592051.0775592053.614.687559205TF-10.96213.03867381.8573804298229.9418267192410.063101639383135161114126WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026160-12526.40215.56620.98482.4800129895310.6629924841.4129924843.655.062992484TF-5.59816.40267384.0787343027931.6788189942970.17479508137855161114126WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026160-12528.05816.68222.3779.6593323745160.547244391.217244393.454.66724439TF-3.94220.05867382.5413047921830.4729849454220.22594738645898161114126WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026160-12529.1217.65423.38778.4781924338140.5161420111.1261420113.44.526142011TF-2.8819.1267381.8942380049829.9703694995190.26276420467679162114128WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026160-12529.58819.56224.57578.1819804386310.2885828331.1685828333.354.518582833TF-2.41219.58867381.7316587678529.8445370785940.27990984168038162114128WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026160-12532.73820.0326.38478.1822214264060.2885828331.0885828333.564.648582833TF0.73823.73867381.7317910863829.8446394162140.40714026430076162114128WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2026160-12533.74619.77826.76278.1111630523750.4035435251.1935435253.544.733543525TF1.74623.74667381.6927717391629.814466329230.45086087299529162114128WETL
2026-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026160-12531.04618.28424.66578.1351137153860.2098426331.1598426333.314.469842633TF-0.95415.04667381.7059242375129.8246357961340.33653531906613162114128WETL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026160-12531.2818.42824.85478.3499720766050.2102363341.1102363343.324.430236334TF-0.7215.2867381.8238778548229.9158901681060.34602621358212162114128WETL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026160-12528.59818.2323.41481.9356076532110.6952759661.8252759663.335.155275966TF-3.40212.59867383.7828599712931.4454818386350.24429398385678161115127.5WETL
2026-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2026160-12532.3618.73425.54780.8647480597430.8578744791.3178744793.234.547874479TF0.3617.3667383.1996721406830.9873449442330.39100890606169162114128WETL
2026-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2026160-12529.15617.47423.31581.8177951703570.8905516621.3905516623.294.680551662TF-2.84414.15667383.7187771769831.3950243140860.26406380419446162114128WETL
2026-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2026160-12529.08417.25823.17182.4117456393430.9326776691.4326776693.334.762677669TF-2.91614.08467384.0416546795931.6495431603670.26146788021379162114128WETL
2026-03-01 23:00:04FORECAST2026160-12525.17819.02222.184.4636272606350.653543661.553543663.495.04354366TF-6.822-1.82267385.1533377409932.5314479571440.14213317642876161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026160-12524.78219.29222.03785.5415998970580.6358271151.5458271153.75.245827115TF-7.218-5.21867385.7350521001532.9963934930220.13251060772816161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026160-12525.08820.13822.61384.0340146918960.5555121111.3655121113.544.905512111TF-6.912-3.91267384.9210584848632.3464618839370.13990586698022161114126WETL
2026-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2026160-12522.76618.89620.83186.2699695748920.5700790481.5300790484.065.590079048TF-9.234-4.23467386.12720690133.3111823913880.090484411066801161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2026160-12522.76618.89620.83186.1636617676830.5700790481.5400790484.115.650079048TF-9.234-4.23467386.0700159027433.2652062688880.090484411066801161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:07FORECAST2026160-12523.19819.07621.13786.5112126405250.5700790481.5500790484.175.720079048TF-8.802-5.80267386.2569324950633.4155556209580.098536163045757161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:04FORECAST2026160-12519.99414.48617.24102.492488505140.55118141.40118144.365.7611814TF-12.006-17.00667394.6760097051640.4513263879610.049983197698854161114126WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:04FORECAST2026160-12523.10817.6920.399100.80461473940.55118141.40118144.475.8711814TF-8.892-7.89267393.8028776347439.6971473632360.096817018822626161114126WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:04FORECAST2026160-12524.11618.6821.398100.24945947230.4980317651.3480317654.525.868031765TF-7.884-7.88467393.5148784245339.4496538563690.11735598028017161114126WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026160-12539.05622.69430.875101.916000322970.3204726142.6304726144.717.340472614TT7.0569.05667394.378214909940.193450278130.678484724449311631151212.5WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2026160-12539.05622.40630.731102.06588745610.3161419032.6761419034.687.356141903TT7.0568.05667394.4556836163940.260469410410.678484724449311631151212.5WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:07FORECAST2026160-12527.51820.87624.197104.151801454420.4976380642.7076380644.537.237638064TT-4.482-0.48267395.53072625741.1952376702410.20840495899431161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026160-12533.33223.0928.21195.0403014130830.1086614760.3786614764.184.558661476TF1.33212.33267390.7926358026437.1410498966960.43280049243278162112124WETL
2026-02-27 19:00:07FORECAST2026160-12533.33223.0928.21195.0396823679590.1086614760.3786614764.184.558661476TF1.33212.33267390.7923101520237.1407770286890.43280049243278162112124WETL
2026-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2026160-12530.39821.3825.88994.4623710811680.0645669640.6745669643.944.614566964TF-1.6025.39867390.4883907356236.8864592685560.31080564635169162113126WETL
2026-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2026160-12521.75819.41820.58893.38586912780701.823.014.83TF-10.242-13.24267389.9204860078436.4130634765790.073606497062975161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026160-12521.75819.41820.58893.18201948670401.773.024.79TF-10.242-11.24267389.812770888836.3235412131260.073606497062975161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 03:00:07FORECAST2026160-12527.30225.05226.17794.45355699722701.773.24.97TF-4.698-1.69867390.4837471995736.8825788726050.20161881168525161115127.5WETL