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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 8, 2026

[ Saturday, March 7, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, March 9, 2026 ]

DAY 159 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 11:00:02 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.18°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.329
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 28

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 82 in
SWE DAY: 67
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026159-12531.3718.98625.17881.7525619794320.9374020812.3074020813.115.417402081TF-0.6328.3767383.6832860562831.3670916237880.328621669258331621151210WETL
2026-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12531.44218.19424.81881.1075864162020.8724414162.1324414163.115.242441416TF-0.55828.44267383.3320604931631.091138222550.331809884714491621151210WETL
2026-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026159-12531.87418.33825.10681.3719996924170.8610240872.0010240873.115.111024087TF-0.12629.87467383.4761180266331.2042185581130.351188631757121621151210WETL
2026-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2026159-12531.80218.8625.33182.7372264458890.7787405781.8487405783.114.958740578TF-0.19828.80267384.2183828553331.7891633469750.347930177522731621151210WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026159-12532.34220.08426.21382.6971813036550.7236224381.6736224383.114.783622438TF0.34230.34267384.1966471966231.7719797894750.372626193123451621151210WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:07FORECAST2026159-12532.21619.95826.08782.5317767250970.6385830221.6285830223.114.738583022TF0.21630.21667384.1068456508531.7010204238370.366812382013021621151210WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2026159-12533.22422.17227.69877.9224007414570.8145673692.0345673692.864.894567369TF1.22431.22467381.5890849733629.734337597860.414068155935141621151210WETL
2026-03-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12533.15222.38827.7778.0581336483270.795276021.785276022.864.64527602TF1.15229.15267381.66364781329.7919520296950.410642129512081621151210WETL
2026-03-05 15:00:14FORECAST2026159-12533.38622.92828.15777.70545967630.8047248441.7947248442.864.654724844TF1.38629.38667381.4698582580229.6422906885920.421800280660981621151210WETL
2026-03-05 11:00:10FORECAST2026159-12533.33224.06228.69778.0919072446310.618110571.698110572.864.55811057TF1.33229.33267381.6821968387129.8062907124560.419219399385211621151210WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026159-12532.48623.07227.77977.5907895297990.6074806431.5574806432.894.447480643TF0.48629.48667381.4068111636529.5936556102310.37930617547761621151210WETL
2026-03-05 03:00:22FORECAST2026159-12533.15223.4528.30177.1609275384980.6110239521.5010239522.874.371023952TF1.15228.15267381.1703041012229.4114542145820.410642129512081621151210WETL
2026-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026159-12533.78222.94628.36472.3606659101110.6586617731.6386617733.154.788661773TF1.78225.78267378.5116163168527.38935261140.440822469890551621151210WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:11FORECAST2026159-12534.1623.28828.72471.97462675860.6425200321.4725200323.234.702520032TF2.1627.1667378.2963918521227.2277416076810.45910894537033162114128WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:08FORECAST2026159-12534.05223.61228.83272.2598402374320.6251971881.3951971883.234.625197188TF2.05226.05267378.455424369227.3471285019080.45387367489406162114128WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:11FORECAST2026159-12533.81823.64828.73375.8396158685140.9877958091.7077958093.355.057795809TF1.81826.81867380.4417087640628.8525530530280.442559237735891621151210WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026159-12535.25823.41429.33675.3062733754690.9877958091.7477958093.234.977795809TF3.25827.25867380.1469205780128.627447923890.512579382524761631151212.5WETL
2026-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2026159-12534.12422.4628.29276.4465770122860.881890241.681890243.615.29189024TF2.12426.12467380.7767018536729.1090754627410.457363021626921621151210WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026159-12535.49227.55431.52377.7401752200520.5440947821.2940947823.654.944094782TF3.49225.49267381.4889416813829.6570171708230.523978111338021631141210WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12535.45629.53432.49575.9646446195630.5645672341.2345672343.454.684567234TF3.45627.45667380.5107566875428.905364405690.522225503368111631141210WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026159-12535.72630.30833.01775.1170757582960.429134091.039134093.44.43913409TF3.72625.72667380.0422515861128.5476626037470.535357250320881631141210WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026159-12536.57230.7433.65676.4689958230330.6401578261.5201578263.354.870157826TF4.57226.57267380.7890653228329.1185574456280.576190036877021631151212.5WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2026159-12536.12232.86434.49376.5909437952810.6401578261.4401578263.565.000157826TF4.12227.12267380.8563045538129.1701438161590.554543711008931631141210WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026159-12537.41834.0735.74476.4687124888170.5492128951.3392128953.544.879212895TF5.41827.41867380.7889090747829.118437606970.616220265775961631141210WETL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026159-12536.57231.44234.00776.9546347004340.1740158421.1240158423.314.434015842TF4.57220.57267381.0567114919729.3240800330130.576190036877021631141210WETL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12536.48231.5534.01677.1846853465790.1736221411.0736221413.324.393622141TF4.48220.48267381.1833822238229.4215194162910.571876961599731631141210WETL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026159-12534.9729.31832.14477.1177907111790.1472441741.2772441743.334.607244174TF2.9718.9767381.1465562603329.3931803559710.49853704191021162114128WETL
2026-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026159-12536.71631.98234.34975.4481619702030.1086614760.5686614763.233.798661476TF4.71621.71667380.225384001428.687306357320.58307180709282163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2026159-12536.30230.30833.30575.5641559394540.1645670180.6645670183.293.954567018TF4.30221.30267380.2895068693428.7362555992130.56322550843385163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2026159-12536.08630.2933.18875.7721120829120.228346580.728346583.334.05834658TF4.08621.08667380.4044202524328.8240463682020.5528040711012163113127.5WETL
2026-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026159-12531.92826.00628.96779.3347160553030.0468504190.9468504193.494.436850419TF-0.0719999999999994.92867382.3636628418430.3347126214230.35363968389613162113126WETL
2026-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12530.59622.60426.680.5816174526980.0444882130.9544882133.74.654488213TF-1.4040.59667383.0452144933330.8664029413880.29517164814493162113126WETL
2026-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026159-12530.68622.76626.72679.6763215013680.023622060.833622063.544.37362206TF-1.3141.68667382.550597832430.4802244234350.29897995978077162113126WETL
2026-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2026159-12530.07421.59625.83581.4036962355310.2653544741.2253544744.065.285354474TF-1.9263.07467383.4933804311231.2177786489520.27353641507866162114128WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2026159-12530.25421.59625.92581.2973884283220.2653544741.2353544744.115.345354474TF-1.7463.25467383.4354781461831.1723030040490.28090767154135162114128WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:07FORECAST2026159-12530.21822.33426.27681.5691689476410.2759844011.2559844014.175.425984401TF-1.7821.21867383.583476745931.288585420210.27942577705773162114128WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026159-12529.26420.2124.73795.7574814815720.8291343061.6791343064.366.039134306TT-2.736-7.73667391.1695668975637.4574125583480.2415954801196161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:04FORECAST2026159-12531.92823.25227.5994.8424341746220.8291343061.6791343064.476.149134306TT-0.0719999999999990.92867390.6885210456537.0538503400530.353639683896131621151210WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:04FORECAST2026159-12532.41423.6328.02295.0028010167990.838583131.688583134.526.20858313TT0.4140.41467390.7729076781837.1245207909070.375961540004991621151210WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026159-12531.87425.26828.57199.2324840539460.9889769123.2989769124.718.008976912TT-0.1261.87467392.9862451604638.9970013063050.351188631757121621151210WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2026159-12531.67624.76428.2299.3854719391491.0114178693.3714178694.688.051417869TT-0.3240.67667393.065856969239.065035698050.34225492467371621151210WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:07FORECAST2026159-12531.69424.51228.10399.238928856111.0232288993.2332288994.537.763228899TT-0.3063.69467392.9895995296738.9998669089170.343063534825231621151210WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026159-12531.3724.56627.96893.9424914358850.7562996211.0262996214.185.206299621TF-0.6310.3767390.2143239760636.6577057882810.32862166925833162114128WETL
2026-02-27 19:00:07FORECAST2026159-12531.3724.56627.96893.9418723907610.7562996211.0262996214.185.206299621TF-0.6310.3767390.2139974161236.6574335503540.32862166925833162114128WETL
2026-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2026159-12530.2924.00827.14993.7418287690950.7767720731.3867720733.945.326772073TF-1.715.2967390.1084431010236.5694788745550.28239335009209162114128WETL
2026-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2026159-12531.17219.38225.27793.3858691278070.0259842661.8459842663.014.855984266TF-0.828-3.82867389.9204860078436.4130634765790.319918695689351621151210WETL
2026-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026159-12531.1919.68825.43993.1820194867040.0287401731.7987401733.024.818740173TF-0.81-1.8167389.812770888836.3235412131260.320705887833831621151210WETL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026159-12534.46621.30827.88794.4535569972270.0425197081.8125197083.25.012519708TF2.4665.46667390.4837471995736.8825788726050.473977767875541621151210WETL
2026-02-26 23:00:04FORECAST2026159-12523.4520.80422.12790.12120761878400.972.933.9TF-8.55-4.5567388.1886996433134.9840343958210.07888752080192161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2026159-12523.4520.78622.11890.17557580380700.942.983.92TF-8.550.4567388.2176577656435.0077508262220.07888752080192161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026159-12525.19621.1123.15390.2491756448900.853.023.87TF-6.804-0.80467388.2568528730335.039860910270.11530703104337161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:04FORECAST2026159-12523.48621.14622.31689.43743379812801.192.413.6TF-8.5141.48667387.8241596244534.6859976017270.079538344688854161114126DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:05FORECAST2026159-12523.48621.14622.31689.38392020254401.192.413.6TF-8.5140.48667387.7956032232934.6626912534080.079538344688854161114126DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2026159-12523.19822.89223.04591.11772782158501.362.43.76TF-8.802-0.80267388.7188415537335.4191776038140.07444385582759161114126DRYL