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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 7, 2026

[ Friday, March 6, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 8, 2026 ]

DAY 158 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 11:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.635
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 20

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 79 in
SWE DAY: 66
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 381.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.96 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 23:00:01FORECAST2026158-12638.06631.67634.87178.61761760.4507876451.6707876452.914.580787645TF6.06620.06666381.1486284778529.9649971224360.634720191284511631151212.5WETL
2026-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2026158-12637.9431.71234.82678.63631360.3350395511.5550395512.914.465039551TF5.9419.9466381.1589212879129.9729324658330.629219456210381631151212.5WETL
2026-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2026158-12638.64231.92835.28578.62243920.2200788591.4400788592.914.350078859TF6.64220.64266381.1512829861629.9670435725820.659500081904061631141210WETL
2026-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2026158-12638.28231.98235.13280.717838527520.1452756691.3652756692.914.275275669TF6.28220.28266382.3018232959630.858576841580.64408532595781631141210WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026158-12637.68832.21634.95281.0722175630660.1047244661.2547244662.914.164724466TF5.68820.68866382.4958008048531.009782779810.618139455878541631141210WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:07FORECAST2026158-12638.82232.16235.49281.0512800301840.1208662071.2908662072.914.200866207TF6.82220.82266382.4843450176831.0008457551890.667110653680011631141210WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:02FORECAST2026158-12638.60632.52235.56476.0132082787020.3208663151.2708663152.914.180866315TF6.60620.60666379.7100217861228.8629769715390.657970022880611631141210WETL
2026-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2026158-12638.10232.77435.43876.3463069396340.0976378481.0376378482.913.947637848TF6.10219.10266379.8945478395929.0035457540550.636286811835541631141210DRYL
2026-03-05 15:00:13FORECAST2026158-12638.33633.20635.77175.9802451752510.0834646121.0434646122.913.953464612TF6.33619.33666379.6917527855228.8490724676650.646413351541581631141210DRYL
2026-03-05 11:00:09FORECAST2026158-12637.68832.75635.22276.9097726668290.0834646121.1334646122.914.043464612TF5.68818.68866380.2063347168329.241582769560.618139455878541631141210WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026158-12637.83232.48635.15977.0385305056870.0696850771.0296850772.913.939685077TF5.83219.83266380.2775186813429.296021223560.624483386609351631141210DRYL
2026-03-05 03:00:21FORECAST2026158-12637.45432.7235.08776.6382108077580.0751968910.9451968912.913.855196891TF5.45418.45466380.0561249849329.1268214253750.60776330345608163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026158-12637.0432.57634.80872.1045226629210.1307087321.0907087323.144.230708732TF5.0415.0466377.5330294964327.2218388813270.589220927480441631141210WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:11FORECAST2026158-12638.1231.56834.84471.9852305175270.1248032171.0248032173.144.164803217TF6.1216.1266377.4662477357827.1719948558460.637069270755881631141210WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:07FORECAST2026158-12636.96831.134.03471.9043532964610.0893701270.9593701273.144.099370127TF4.96814.96866377.4209597881727.1382100340980.58597444742344163113127.5WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:11FORECAST2026158-12636.9531.38834.16975.721376598820.1488189781.0288189783.144.168818978TF4.9515.9566379.5482279688928.7399143074470.585161899493621631141210WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026158-12636.8631.92834.39475.21387555880.200787511.050787513.044.09078751TF4.8614.8666379.2665795495328.526109317850.581093760666931631141210WETL
2026-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2026158-12636.75232.50434.62876.3564496477340.1937008921.0937008923.424.513700892TF4.75214.75266379.9001641280429.0078277534080.576200562680461631141210WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026158-12638.26432.14435.20476.4714548310240.1232284130.9332284133.574.503228413TF6.26413.26466379.9638354501229.0563872800460.64330811744225163113127.5WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12638.60631.4635.03375.4233519992260.122047310.792047313.434.22204731TF6.60614.60666379.3828769263128.6143282688920.65797002288061163113127.5WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026158-12638.40833.29635.85274.8158272675210.1137795890.7437795893.374.113779589TF6.40813.40866379.0454200525828.3585966731990.64950887765245163113127.5WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026158-12637.68833.65635.67276.7275910230330.1094488781.0794488783.254.329448878TF5.68812.68866380.1055755398629.1645851455970.618139455878541631141210WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2026158-12637.41833.81835.61876.9332773952810.1094488780.9594488783.54.459448878TF5.41814.41866380.2193310783129.2515192688960.60615994525997163113127.5WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026158-12636.93233.24235.08776.8951780888170.1114173830.9514173833.484.431417383TF4.93212.93266380.1982646134129.2354132665070.58434898712078163113127.5WETL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026158-12637.52632.10834.81776.7061691416710.4744097051.1044097053.264.364409705TF5.5266.52666380.0937246789929.1555335349140.610964513308421631141210WETL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12637.41832.5434.97976.9262333908040.47244121.11244123.214.3224412TF5.4187.41866380.2154363507129.2485413955010.606159945259971631141210WETL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026158-12637.97632.3635.16876.5616971532690.6527562581.3727562583.194.562756258TF5.9766.97666380.01378407229.0945002501880.630793847404991631141210WETL
2026-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026158-12637.88631.83834.86275.2146441214470.283464720.633464723.163.79346472TF5.8867.88666379.2670063541528.5264329099340.62685381646235163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2026158-12638.44432.50435.47474.9747136020270.2956694510.6256694513.263.885669451TF6.4448.44466379.1337256576528.4254424980520.65105294264981163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026158-12638.55232.93635.74474.9246651665740.3039371720.6239371723.313.933937172TF6.5527.55266379.1059136591228.4043836435780.65567007206117163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026158-12636.2330.6533.4479.0276719655270.6318901051.3718901053.124.491890105TF4.23-3.7766381.374265761730.1391203707090.552397502784831631141210WETL
2026-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12635.79827.42831.61380.2716280924750.6251971881.4551971883.254.705197188TF3.798-7.20266382.0573312948330.6683640077020.532550791860061631141210WETL
2026-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026158-12635.88827.33831.61379.5056788405280.5385829681.3285829683.124.448582968TF3.888-6.11266381.6369982382930.3423086155960.536693866516931631141210WETL
2026-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026158-12636.66228.99432.82880.002188037220.712598811.402598813.725.12259881TF4.662-4.33866381.9095628179930.5536006577770.572113870741951631141210WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026158-12635.61830.07432.84680.042156880810.7133862121.4133862123.775.183386212TF3.618-4.38266381.931489240530.5706201795090.524254502759251631141210WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:07FORECAST2026158-12634.50230.30832.40580.4296242758960.7173232221.4273232223.825.247323222TF2.502-6.49866382.1439338038330.7356930151550.47272207296983162114128WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026158-12634.3426.6930.51589.7446517254250.2692914841.4892914843.825.309291484TF2.34-13.6666387.188841913234.748127769470.46525903253125162114128WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12636.75227.89632.32489.3846067728970.2692914841.4892914843.935.419291484TF4.752-8.24866386.9960554318134.5914902374350.576200562680461631141210WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:04FORECAST2026158-12636.82428.6732.74789.5411402805430.2720473911.5520473913.925.472047391TF4.824-9.17666387.079893140934.6595750115070.579464048618911631151212.5WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026158-12636.33831.133.71993.1091046427461.4066936733.0666936734.057.116693673TT4.338-6.66266388.9818462904936.2177514303890.557340712807371631151212.5WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2026158-12636.35629.22832.79293.0795856503421.4393708563.1193708564.027.139370856TT4.356-7.64466388.9661813876136.2048109955550.558163735338781631151212.5WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2026158-12637.18429.3933.28792.7670687487581.3283471742.9183471743.926.838347174TT5.184-4.81666388.8002653567836.0678609458880.595695375938811631151212.5WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026158-12639.12829.26434.19687.7411034310930.0614173560.8614173563.694.551417356TF7.1282.12866386.1137970220833.8780506006870.67989072905669163113127.5WETL
2026-02-27 19:00:06FORECAST2026158-12639.12830.4734.79987.7404843859690.0614173560.8614173563.694.551417356TF7.1282.12866386.1134640145733.8777823605830.67989072905669163113127.5WETL
2026-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2026158-12637.05830.03833.54887.0224955234120.185039471.165039473.484.64503947TF5.058-1.94266385.7268782649433.5669155370710.590031602813091631141210WETL
2026-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2026158-12628.0420.24624.14393.1250072103531.0440950521.9240950523.014.934095052TF-3.96-11.9666388.9902848511236.2247230815180.20697311704207161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026158-12627.55420.44423.99992.895223190781.1228352521.8828352523.014.892835252TF-4.446-10.44666388.8683188120136.1240092678650.19125408146815161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026158-12628.68822.47825.58394.0607976525761.3444889152.0244889153.055.074488915TF-3.312-6.31266389.4862542962136.6353877538160.22907713076563161115127.5WETL
2026-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2026158-12628.27420.87624.57590.1212076187840.5263782371.0163782372.983.996378237TF-3.726-4.72666387.3902806666634.912079913460.21480595890417161114126DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12628.11220.8424.47690.1755758038070.5311026490.9911026493.034.021102649TF-3.8880.1119999999999966387.419349039234.9357628771460.20936507159123161114126WETL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026158-12627.89620.82224.35990.249175644890.47244120.89244123.083.9724412TF-4.104-3.10466387.4586933713534.967827673210.20223790625238161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:04FORECAST2026158-12636.51822.11829.31889.4374337981280.4082679371.1882679372.513.698267937TF4.5180.51866387.0243527604234.6144649282730.565559223821041631141210DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:05FORECAST2026158-12636.51822.11829.31889.3839202025440.4062994321.1862994322.513.696299432TF4.518-0.48266386.9956876384934.5911916626070.565559223821041631141210DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2026158-12635.621.9228.7691.1177278215850.4460632331.3560632332.53.856063233TF3.6-1.466387.9224409488235.3466113902590.523424235451511631141210DRYL
2026-02-25 23:00:05FORECAST2026158-12625.59216.84421.21892.3480399525320.1791339551.2591339552.363.619133955TF-6.408-16.40866388.5775951024935.8843792771830.13551281198142161114126DRYL
2026-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2026158-12625.59216.84421.21892.0466060996980.1791339551.2591339552.363.619133955TF-6.408-12.40866388.4172677117935.7524912433870.13551281198142161114126DRYL
2026-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2026158-12625.50221.34423.42392.0677064126480.2496064341.2996064342.233.529606434TF-6.498-8.49866388.42849459535.7617206026790.13325420350997161114126DRYL
2026-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026158-12632.07229.78630.92986.8097827732420.1779528521.0279528522.153.177952852FF0.0720000000000032.07266385.6122121935333.4749123752290.36321030544347162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 07:00:05FORECAST2026158-12632.07229.78630.92986.7505381215780.1779528521.0279528522.153.177952852FF0.0720000000000034.07266385.5802644230733.4492954277620.36321030544347162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 03:00:05FORECAST2026158-12625.28624.85425.0784.25846698101400.642.012.65FF-6.7144.28666384.2320475627732.3748032926160.12793935675028161113124.5DRYL