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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 6, 2026

[ Thursday, March 5, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 7, 2026 ]

DAY 157 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 11:00:01 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.436
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.92 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 381.67 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 30.94 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 11:00:01FORECAST2026157-12733.42224.42228.92281.063320927520.9161422272.0361422272.174.206142227TF1.4224.42265381.6708214840130.9395042906280.436059575118431621151210WETL
2026-03-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026157-12733.60225.26829.43581.4469247630660.8547248711.9747248712.174.144724871TF1.6024.60265381.8814025863831.1030658648670.444996083026991621151210WETL
2026-03-06 03:00:07FORECAST2026157-12733.27823.70228.4981.4270696301840.8677170041.9877170042.174.157717004TF1.2784.27865381.8705080536631.0945964489990.428933571380551621151210WETL
2026-03-05 23:00:01FORECAST2026157-12733.54823.5428.54476.4118266787020.9003941871.7703941872.173.940394187TF1.5483.54865379.1009667215928.9677973628590.442311981554371621151210DRYL
2026-03-05 19:00:01FORECAST2026157-12732.55823.46828.01376.7405957396340.8877957551.7577957552.173.927795755TF0.5582.55865379.283603709229.1064497029190.393694453957451621151210DRYL
2026-03-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.97224.6228.79676.4176331752510.9086619081.7786619082.173.948661908TF0.9722.97265379.1041936556128.9702452059740.413870268779971621151210DRYL
2026-03-05 11:00:09FORECAST2026157-12732.68424.828.74277.3229542668290.9976383341.8676383342.174.037638334TF0.6842.68465379.6067399915129.3523145957440.399807458476671621151210WETL
2026-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026157-12732.88224.47628.67977.3971001056870.8822839411.7822839412.173.952283941TF0.8823.88265379.6478473841829.3836424489020.409462854115191621151210DRYL
2026-03-05 03:00:21FORECAST2026157-12732.75624.09828.42776.9572236077580.8125988641.6925988642.173.862598864TF0.7562.75665379.4038609671229.1978677660930.403311763675861621151210DRYL
2026-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026157-12732.66623.3628.01372.4035602629210.8480319542.0080319542.174.178031954TF0.666-0.33465376.8619963512827.2861502636250.39893262937871621151210WETL
2026-03-04 19:00:10FORECAST2026157-12732.55823.95428.25672.2926321175270.7082680991.9482680992.174.118268099TF0.558-0.44265376.7997084637127.2398427059590.393694453957451621151210WETL
2026-03-04 15:00:07FORECAST2026157-12732.82823.82828.32872.1716076964610.6822838331.9222838332.174.092283833TF0.828-0.17265376.7317313377527.1893347209160.406823848457331621151210WETL
2026-03-04 11:00:11FORECAST2026157-12733.63823.73828.68875.9110142891280.570866451.930866452.174.10086645TF1.6380.63865378.8224633647828.7567974295260.446786893733111621151210WETL
2026-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2026157-12733.1724.2628.71575.3463847939130.5625987291.8025987292.173.972598729TF1.170.1765378.5080459535428.5192128780070.423604095994651621151210DRYL
2026-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2026157-12733.36824.15228.7676.6532240477340.6145672612.2345672612.174.404567261TF1.3680.36865379.2350820789129.0695917133560.433384761944681621151210WETL
2026-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026157-12732.59424.11628.35576.7304820110610.6342523112.2142523112.254.464252311TF0.594-3.40665379.2779876287629.102182806940.395438427626181621151210WETL
2026-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12733.58424.85429.21975.7231054144110.547244391.927244392.254.17724439TF1.584-2.41665378.717875209428.6776935868030.44410109608881621151210WETL
2026-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026157-12733.38625.26829.32775.2489840675210.4972443631.8272443632.254.077244363TF1.386-2.61465378.4537621423128.478261117740.434276033649061621151210WETL
2026-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026157-12733.31425.4329.37277.1740318230330.7661421462.0461421462.254.296142146TF1.314-2.68665379.5241521075329.2894089923570.430712996280711621151210WETL
2026-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2026157-12733.6225.55629.58877.3844413952810.6858271422.1158271422.314.425827142TF1.62-1.3865379.6408297827429.3782935435780.445891350410691621151210WETL
2026-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026157-12733.06224.42228.74277.2712628888170.6799216272.0899216272.314.399921627TF1.062-1.93865379.5780770561629.3304773790380.418288557611271621151210WETL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026157-12733.02624.67428.8577.1002611416710.4811026221.6611026222.313.971102622TF1.026-8.97465379.4832295465429.2582560969220.416519971717031621151210DRYL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12733.24224.60228.92277.3491565908040.4334648011.6734648012.263.933464801TF1.242-7.75865379.621267776529.3633848864440.427155589526351621151210DRYL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026157-12732.32425.86229.09377.0135499532690.4822837251.7022837252.293.992283725TF0.324-8.67665379.4351187371729.221645470890.382411994388371621151210DRYL
2026-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026157-12733.69227.0530.37175.5842791352480.1826772641.2126772642.383.592677264TF1.692-8.30865378.6405738545828.6192748261550.44947513420159162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2026157-12733.92626.47430.275.3448900126320.1988190051.1688190052.53.668819005TF1.926-8.07465378.5072129767728.5185843307230.46114942134533162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026157-12734.32226.07830.275.3806507665740.2023623141.1723623142.543.712362314TF2.322-8.67865378.5271400264928.5336221480070.4809771048264162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.55824.87228.71579.1234402451560.2685040821.4685040822.473.938504082TF0.558-18.44265380.6027669658330.1146002891620.39369445395745162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.39624.60228.49980.0862823112480.2763781021.6563781022.54.156378102TF0.396-20.60465381.1335438709830.5235685927380.385873396870041621151210WETL
2026-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026157-12732.39624.90828.65279.4176032118370.2685040821.5385040822.453.988504082TF0.396-19.60465380.7650651545530.2394488613730.385873396870041621151210DRYL
2026-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.9925.7929.3980.219160037220.2523623411.8523623412.644.492362341TF0.99-19.0165381.206692247930.5800806526930.414753073868871621151210WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026157-12733.31426.56429.93980.259916080810.2551182481.8851182482.664.545118248TF1.314-17.68665381.2291232540630.5974174399320.430712996280711621151210WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026157-12732.95426.52829.74180.5907050758960.255905651.985905652.624.60590565TF0.954-19.04665381.4110945444730.7381890331080.412987898670991621151210WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026157-12731.35226.92429.13888.4716275146790.5771656662.4871656662.635.117165666TF-0.648-25.64865385.7015847151534.123646934740.336701837123811621151210WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12731.56826.88829.22888.4184416639940.5771656662.4971656662.735.227165666TF-0.432-23.43265385.6729164575634.1005982651850.346680971175571621151210WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:04FORECAST2026157-12731.78426.92429.35488.5969175439880.5779530682.5579530682.725.277953068TF-0.216-24.21665385.7691032891334.1779534351260.356767576217081621151210WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026157-12731.60427.24829.42690.5431249993050.9027563933.1227563932.675.792756393TT-0.396-21.39665386.8151565075135.0234530672850.348354777835431621151210WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2026157-12732.03626.85229.44490.6534099077440.9161422273.1361422272.645.776142227TT0.036000000000001-21.96465386.8742780869535.0714725141790.36866261313511621151210WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2026157-12732.61226.38429.49890.303732640580.8795280343.0195280342.575.589528034TT0.612-20.38865386.6867659467234.9192583277040.396311202510391621151210WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026157-12735.67225.35830.51587.9271678758980.2145670452.0745670452.54.574567045TF3.672-15.32865385.4079266878333.8878274705820.548628660074651631151212.5WETL
2026-02-27 19:00:06FORECAST2026157-12736.66226.00631.33487.9265488307740.2145670452.0745670452.54.574567045TF4.662-15.33865385.4075925704233.8875595078940.597464640182431631151212.5WETL
2026-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2026157-12735.99626.18631.09186.9151310780550.4228348742.0328348742.514.542834874TF3.996-17.00465384.8609975427233.4502440482560.564730208087731631151212.5WETL
2026-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026157-12732.34226.81629.57985.3641230772980.7826775881.7026775882.273.972677588TF0.342-17.65865384.0200621714232.7815358513530.383276476943591621151210DRYL
2026-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026157-12731.9126.79829.35484.4876218169430.649606651.569606652.283.84960665TF-0.09-16.0965383.5433680039832.4046670263170.362698538741151621151210DRYL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026157-12733.40426.70830.05684.0858119941060.4314962961.5314962962.283.811496296TF1.404-12.59665383.3244846022832.2321505450050.435167639523791621151210DRYL
2026-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.48626.34829.41785.4362702385620.4385829141.4685829142.083.548582914TF0.486-10.51465384.0592528895232.8125901174890.39021292709019162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12732.4525.98829.21985.4221540128820.4070868341.4770868342.093.567086834TF0.45-5.5565384.0515854464832.8065136809010.38847543992652162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026157-12731.94625.3428.64385.8717077392370.3814962691.4914962692.093.581496269TF-0.053999999999998-9.05465384.2956324185933.0001222325150.36439923856792162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:04FORECAST2026157-12730.61422.74826.68185.927203315050.7818901861.3318901862.043.371890186TF-1.386-14.38665384.3257397039333.0240359747470.30349895585969162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:05FORECAST2026157-12730.61422.74826.68185.8817798954980.7822838871.3322838872.043.372283887TF-1.386-15.38665384.3010970483733.0044622303070.30349895585969162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2026157-12730.2923.82827.05987.0210378601870.90551231.44551232.043.4855123TF-1.71-14.7165384.9182980144233.4959897845920.28939871218191162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 23:00:05FORECAST2026157-12728.52623.88226.20490.426988536240.5098427951.5398427951.983.519842795TF-3.474-20.47465386.752880118934.972898256870.21852545808602161115127.5DRYL
2026-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2026157-12728.52623.88226.20490.1255546834050.5098427951.5398427951.983.519842795TF-3.474-16.47465386.5911551148334.8417422904220.21852545808602161115127.5DRYL
2026-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2026157-12729.0324.2626.64589.316365726430.4940947551.3840947551.983.364094755TF-2.97-11.9765386.1563969691534.4900859792970.23769478135749161114126DRYL
2026-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026157-12733.42226.56429.99386.8101763732420.5834648821.1634648821.923.083464882FF1.422-7.57865384.804196980133.4049202090060.43605957511843162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 07:00:05FORECAST2026157-12733.42226.54629.98486.7509317215780.5791341711.1591341711.923.079134171FF1.422-5.57865384.7721276092233.3793405705940.43605957511843162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 03:00:05FORECAST2026157-12734.95225.71830.33584.2584669810140.5137798050.8137798051.922.733779805FF2.9520.95265383.4185647049732.3062604741020.51259837824546163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-24 23:00:04FORECAST2026157-12727.526.65427.07778.8940044216670.0484252230.4384252231.952.388425223FF-4.5-11.565380.4760964049230.0172828321080.18237298236421161112123DRYL
2026-02-24 19:00:06FORECAST2026157-12727.526.65427.07778.9093548216670.0484252230.4384252231.952.388425223FF-4.5-11.565380.4845736011330.0237922224620.18237298236421161112123DRYL
2026-02-24 15:00:12FORECAST2026157-12730.6526.04228.34679.9473093985390.0539370370.6339370371.952.583937037FF-1.35-16.3565381.0570137134430.4644829738320.30508439739719162113126DRYL
2026-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026157-12727.84226.90627.37479.6781272412630.0216535550.4816535551.952.431653555FF-4.158-12.15865380.9087025497630.3500920690640.19398714600395161112123DRYL
2026-02-24 07:00:08FORECAST2026157-12727.84226.90627.37480.1745116843770.0216535550.4916535551.892.381653555FF-4.158-10.15865381.1821163562630.561090041680.19398714600395161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-24 03:00:09FORECAST2026157-12728.88628.11228.49977.52983897952001.971.97FF-3.114-9.11465379.7214201648829.4397405624580.23212574374022161111121.5DRYL