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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 5, 2026

[ Wednesday, March 4, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, March 6, 2026 ]

DAY 156 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.18°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.23°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.202
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -2

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 79 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 379.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 30.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-06 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026156-12828.1800424.2700826.2250679.2042379166670.31.362.013.37TF-3.81996-1.8199664379.82022685616 30.0833716134780.2021065502807216 1114126DRYL
2026-03-06 03:00:06OBSERVATION2026156-12828.1800424.2700826.2250679.2042379166670.31.362.013.37TF-3.81996-1.8199664379.82022685616 30.0833716134780.2021065502807216 1114126DRYL
2026-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2026156-12827.28421.03824.16174.1843475652650.0464567181.1064567182.013.116456718FF-4.716-2.71664377.0217931903327.9691157457110.16628804491798161114126DRYL
2026-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026156-12827.5922.29824.94474.6796866995940.0783464991.1383464992.013.148346499FF-4.41-2.4164377.29951887628.1766098615670.17803143426542161114126DRYL
2026-03-05 03:00:20FORECAST2026156-12827.26621.21824.24274.6119215940730.0602362531.1202362532.013.130236253FF-4.734-2.73464377.2615451102128.1482088242220.16561315890863161114126DRYL
2026-03-04 23:00:01FORECAST2026156-12826.56421.97424.26969.4510921096440.1059055691.3959055692.013.405905569TF-5.436-6.43664374.3502648228425.9990347234810.14067304312286161114126DRYL
2026-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026156-12826.58222.4624.52169.8174431428660.1937008921.4837008922.013.493700892TF-5.418-6.41864374.5581881664226.1506950060040.14127895768558161114126DRYL
2026-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026156-12826.63622.13624.38669.7903269924330.1913386861.4813386862.013.491338686TF-5.364-6.36464374.5428049644426.1394648311310.14310727418759161114126DRYL
2026-03-04 11:00:10FORECAST2026156-12826.63621.16423.973.876799791410.3074804811.5974804812.013.607480481TF-5.364-6.36464376.8491820536427.8404115741340.14310727418759161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2026156-12826.76221.43424.09873.3303521477240.287401731.477401732.013.48740173TF-5.238-6.23864376.5421555756427.6119688668250.14743509776012161114126DRYL
2026-03-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026156-12826.65421.03823.84674.5995048166960.2850395241.8550395242.013.865039524TF-5.346-6.34664377.2545863692928.1430053329760.14372023941219161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026156-12826.9621.4724.21574.6274971709540.1830709651.9030709652.013.913070965TF-5.04-9.0464377.2702738284328.1547362928160.15441095604077161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12827.15821.95624.55774.0050311144390.1192914031.6992914032.013.709291403TF-4.842-8.84264376.9211682524427.8940627842130.1616010088762161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 15:00:01FORECAST2026156-12827.33821.68624.51273.849762232010.1303150311.6503150312.013.660315031TF-4.662-8.66264376.8340007788227.8291013584530.1683233162633161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026156-12826.9623.10825.03474.4448347913880.2000001081.6000001082.013.610000108TF-5.04-9.0464377.1678861712628.0782009746370.15441095604077161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2026156-12827.0523.43225.24174.9142654265410.1582678021.8082678022.013.818267802TF-4.95-7.9564377.4309201029828.2749601287780.15765259886721161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026156-12827.37423.34225.35874.8629240748750.1582678021.7882678022.013.798267802TF-4.626-7.62664377.4021675096228.2534298119660.16968900468803161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026156-12827.42823.70225.56575.0554600810310.1503937821.5603937822.013.570393782TF-4.572-14.57264377.5099737275928.3341847633020.17175079027376161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12827.37423.32425.34975.5422432795770.2114174371.5714174372.013.581417437TF-4.626-13.62664377.7823020268128.5385225664280.16968900468803161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2026156-12828.09423.7225.90775.6126436784950.2381891051.5781891052.013.588189105TF-3.906-13.90664377.8216592971528.5680944984530.19847960355381161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026156-12828.2223.77425.99774.8374930435570.1665355231.4765355232.013.486535523TF-3.78-14.7864377.387924031928.242766139460.20380440414083161114126DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2026156-12828.36423.52225.94374.7321248486850.1279528251.5379528252.013.547952825TF-3.636-14.63664377.3288993368528.1985904142590.20999279336944161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026156-12827.6823.925.7974.8840933301820.1177165991.5777165992.013.587716599TF-4.32-16.3264377.4140233391528.2623069478490.18158231007571161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12826.63622.80224.71978.2373465771480.4688978911.7388978912.013.748897891TF-5.364-24.36464379.2839856595429.6741726372070.14310727418759161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12826.56421.41623.9979.1489123902440.5468506891.9468506892.013.956850689TF-5.436-26.43664379.7895786420130.0599320866640.14067304312286161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026156-12826.6921.68624.18878.5164269552810.5244097321.7944097322.013.804409732TF-5.31-25.3164379.4388998039829.7921866604510.14495146301147161115127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026156-12826.54621.70424.12580.0221323689310.4397640172.3097640172.014.319764017TF-5.454-25.45464380.2728068278130.430240884280.1400688895768161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026156-12827.39222.29824.84579.9168278350150.4393703162.3593703162.014.369370316TF-4.608-23.60864380.214589531830.3855438919730.17037449994752161115127.5WETL
2026-03-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026156-12827.33822.71225.02580.3921147267670.4515750472.4215750472.014.431575047TF-4.662-24.66264380.4772270443130.5873688874690.1683233162633161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12827.7722.80225.28685.4711533467260.6425200322.6125200322.014.622520032TF-4.23-30.2364383.2641304076132.7580272623690.1851770781216161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12828.1323.34225.73685.4437299879970.6425200322.7225200322.014.732520032TF-3.87-27.8764383.2491793543332.7462393988730.19999236236214161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2026156-12828.07623.10825.59285.6209393146750.704724792.774724792.014.78472479TF-3.924-28.92464383.34577445732.822425291320.19772581445622161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026156-12828.4924.47626.48385.992081771310.759842932.959842932.014.96984293TF-3.51-25.5164383.5479398143732.9820858037350.21549695081659161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2026156-12828.424.99826.69985.9041635285470.755905922.925905922.014.93590592TF-3.6-26.664383.5000670098532.9442524696230.21155693677872161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2026156-12828.424.81826.60985.6450289071340.7098429032.7798429032.014.789842903TF-3.6-25.664383.3589021059632.8327842526720.21155693677872161115127.5WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12830.25426.34828.30186.7513307900810.5854333872.4254333872.014.435433387TF-1.746-23.74664383.9609178159633.3091205919150.30077402793981621151210WETL
2026-02-27 19:00:05FORECAST2026156-12830.57826.13228.35586.8163687005880.5854333872.4254333872.014.435433387TF-1.422-25.42264383.9962568401833.3371606134820.317946216160391621151210WETL
2026-02-27 15:00:03FORECAST2026156-12830.61426.4228.51785.4378992467470.559055422.189055422.014.19905542TF-1.386-26.38664383.2460003343732.7437331632870.319879535239761621151210WETL
2026-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026156-12831.3725.9728.6780.9921282351930.1019685591.2619685592.013.271968559TF-0.63-22.6364380.8083344367830.8424774557340.36154019828108162114128DRYL
2026-02-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026156-12830.54225.53828.0480.8094567153780.1125984861.2725984862.013.282598486TF-1.458-21.45864380.7075836453230.7647730018030.31601784233277162114128DRYL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026156-12829.42625.10627.26681.6568111796030.2500001351.4500001352.013.460000135TF-2.574-18.57464381.1745399221931.1254974328980.25891183512979162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12829.71425.23227.47382.6578300257580.0460630171.1760630172.013.186063017TF-2.286-16.28664381.7248835029931.5525505371930.27312516456524162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12832.16224.72828.44582.8453593462150.0503937281.2303937282.013.240393728TF0.162-10.83864381.8278284820931.6326636589840.40701018900129162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026156-12831.7324.04427.88783.3714849156040.0358267911.2658267912.013.275826791TF-0.27-14.2764382.1163856106431.8576104789430.38200949050209162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2026156-12831.67624.40428.0480.54569327871700.662.012.67FF-0.324-18.32464380.5620248494430.652632127050.37891638694471162113126DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2026156-12831.65823.97227.81580.49871508752900.662.012.67FF-0.342-19.34264380.5360895339330.6326662519150.37788706157887162113126DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2026156-12831.47823.14427.31180.50094984927300.652.012.66FF-0.522-17.52264380.5373233520730.6336159829420.36764254951594162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2026156-12829.22825.05227.1486.0817372443460.5665357391.08653573923.086535739FF-2.772-21.77264383.5967475585833.0206744311230.24936668007718162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2026156-12829.22825.37627.30285.7803033915110.5665357391.08653573923.086535739FF-2.772-17.77264383.432605161632.8909652009590.24936668007718162114128DRYL
2026-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2026156-12830.0225.55627.78885.1353168241080.5633861310.95338613122.953386131FF-1.98-13.9864383.0809625826332.6137191187570.28863823714623162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026156-12832.4527.0529.7582.4399328080040.2712599890.58125998922.581259989FF0.45-13.5564381.6052063385131.4595075697310.42389733569874162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 07:00:05FORECAST2026156-12832.41427.01429.71482.4130282396190.2692914840.57929148422.579291484FF0.414-11.58664381.5904247655631.4480224521720.42177810838907162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 03:00:04FORECAST2026156-12833.81828.38231.180.6161041156040.1255906190.29559061922.295590619FF1.818-7.18264380.6008908636130.6825610443520.50550024835709163112125DRYL
2026-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12833.20627.98630.59678.3957532550510.0208661530.3908661532.032.420866153FF1.206-11.79464379.3719287671529.7411481195220.46881645036234162112124DRYL
2026-02-24 19:00:06FORECAST2026156-12833.20627.98630.59678.4111036550510.0208661530.3908661532.032.420866153FF1.206-11.79464379.3804490140429.747639712340.46881645036234162112124DRYL
2026-02-24 15:00:11FORECAST2026156-12832.10826.65429.38179.9473093985390.0925197350.5825197352.032.612519735FF0.108-19.89264380.2314427742130.3984807985230.40386200313761162113126DRYL
2026-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026156-12837.56228.25632.90979.4739499065210.460630170.460630172.032.49063017FF5.562-13.43864379.9695752664730.1976829907290.71797069375163164112126DRYL
2026-02-24 07:00:07FORECAST2026156-12837.83228.25633.04479.9703343496360.4708663960.4708663961.972.440866396FF5.832-11.16864380.24417239430.4082536008480.73152473187458164112126DRYL
2026-02-24 03:00:09FORECAST2026156-12836.91429.64233.27877.52983897952002.052.05FF4.914-11.08664378.8907643149429.3753399481650.68416233574158163111122.5DRYL
2026-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2026156-12834.71828.99431.85670.0078930856420.1834646660.1834646662.422.603464666FF2.718-24.28264374.6662020444626.2295914155320.55927445480958163112125DRYL
2026-02-23 19:00:12FORECAST2026156-12834.71828.99431.85671.1664156135410.1834646660.1834646662.72.883464666FF2.718-31.28264375.3221347969526.7103310339210.55927445480958163112125DRYL
2026-02-23 15:00:12FORECAST2026156-12835.25832.9934.12470.752772695860.1055118680.1055118682.732.835511868FF3.258-28.74264375.0881598009726.5385273113060.59108446863253163112125DRYL
2026-02-23 11:00:04FORECAST2026156-12835.40233.54834.47576.412389680483002.892.89FF3.402-41.59864378.2682627422228.9043818964180.59947574880498163111122.5DRYL
2026-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2026156-12835.40233.54834.47575.229116870576002.562.56FF3.402-51.59864377.6071637413328.4070534522630.59947574880498163111122.5DRYL
2026-02-23 03:00:06FORECAST2026156-12831.11830.4730.79475.030897452197002.482.48FF-0.882-52.88264377.4962233682828.3238804241370.34743989078004162111122DRYL