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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 4, 2026

[ Tuesday, March 3, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 5, 2026 ]

DAY 155 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/05/2026 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.452
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 0

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.82 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 74 in
SWE DAY: 63
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 376.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-05 07:00:05OBSERVATION2026155-12932.5799627.8499230.2149474.365008750.819999999999991.062.053.11FF0.57996-0.4200463376.28257825004 27.9822572240360.4520392056207316 2114128DRYL
2026-03-05 03:00:12OBSERVATION2026155-12932.5799627.8499230.2149474.365008750.819999999999991.062.053.11FF0.57996-0.4200463376.28257825004 27.9822572240360.4520392056207316 2114128DRYL
2026-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.53425.5227.52772.5877242619721.0527564741.2927564742.053.342756474TF-2.466-3.46663375.2798685823327.2407116217230.30620265185076162114128DRYL
2026-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2026155-12929.80425.2527.52772.124452976470.9484257091.1884257092.053.238425709TF-2.196-3.19663375.0177552702927.0479504553330.31831556005235162114128DRYL
2026-03-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026155-12929.91225.0727.49173.3902759808781.330709381.570709382.053.62070938TF-2.088-3.08863375.7332133475127.5751642227560.323216586657351621151210DRYL
2026-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026155-12930.14625.30427.72573.8303916303121.3988196531.7188196532.053.768819653TF-1.854-5.85463375.9814334419827.7588564767470.333940344281371621151210DRYL
2026-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.80425.12427.46473.4809843198661.2645676121.5845676122.053.634567612TF-2.196-6.19663375.7843944969427.613007199680.318315560052351621151210DRYL
2026-03-03 15:00:01FORECAST2026155-12929.89425.28627.5973.2835027890041.2027565551.5227565552.053.572756555TF-2.106-6.10663375.6729526757927.530629875170.322397586645891621151210DRYL
2026-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.85825.82627.84273.565114203741.0755911321.3955911322.053.445591132TF-2.142-6.14263375.8318532886727.6481132085840.3207621713242162114128DRYL
2026-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2026155-12929.7525.9727.8674.2395216384111.2685046221.6485046222.053.698504622TF-2.25-5.2563376.2119292608627.929793662990.315876842083571621151210DRYL
2026-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026155-12929.8426.07827.95974.1888535987411.251969181.631969182.053.68196918TF-2.16-5.1663376.1833968749827.9086149570350.319945762687571621151210DRYL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026155-12930.1127.19428.65274.397991949311.0311029191.4111029192.053.461102919TF-1.89-11.8963376.3011439873827.9960494808890.33228140808415162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026155-12931.06427.30229.18374.5982507725451.0271659091.3571659092.053.407165909TF-0.936-10.93663376.4138332252228.079813525190.37726015706257162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 15:00:01FORECAST2026155-12930.61426.97828.79674.566955883090.9759847791.3359847792.053.385984779TF-1.386-12.38663376.396226807328.0667208389020.35579173600029162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.25426.99628.62574.110966815070.8629925921.3129925922.053.362992592TF-1.746-12.74663376.1395298014827.8760642109530.33893653603434162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.09226.6928.39174.1654629567950.8358272231.4058272232.053.455827223TF-1.908-12.90863376.1702238057327.8988387991130.33145316728962162114128DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026155-12929.94826.36628.15774.3503753716930.8480319541.4580319542.053.508031954TF-2.052-14.05263376.2743408475627.9761384847520.3248571546035162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.27225.35827.81575.9200618421810.7342523651.2742523652.053.324252365TF-1.728-20.72863377.1562039922528.6337223312540.33977202406052162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.08424.29626.6976.4425022001180.8263783991.3963783992.053.446378399TF-2.916-22.91663377.4489364097628.8531411519350.28648180342121162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.37224.36826.8775.9211818046990.7500004051.2700004052.053.320000405TF-2.628-21.62863377.1568319422928.6341924067750.29903410666806162114128DRYL
2026-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026155-12928.90423.77426.33977.7517407377011.1633864551.8733864552.053.923386455TF-3.096-22.09663378.1808212975529.4042171694980.278765603948971621151210DRYL
2026-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026155-12928.7624.20626.48377.7033811677511.1913392261.9213392262.053.971339226TF-3.24-21.2463378.1538308064429.3838312551980.272666295606491621151210DRYL
2026-03-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026155-12928.86824.40426.63678.084319158911.2767723431.9667723432.054.016772343TF-3.132-22.13263378.3663505218929.5444788731440.277234576604571621151210WETL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12928.14824.20626.17782.0125768773781.2740164361.9740164362.054.024016436TF-3.852-27.85263380.5459161051531.2095511999460.24750514566906161115127.5WETL
2026-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026155-12928.41824.92626.67282.0188074054441.2787408482.0787408482.054.128740848TF-3.582-25.58263380.5493558239631.2122043235910.258450797298581621151210WETL
2026-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2026155-12928.23824.9826.60981.870759609841.2830715592.0730715592.054.123071559TF-3.762-26.76263380.4676076138631.1491720422850.251125997065041621151210WETL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.31825.57427.44682.0856931962011.4602370092.2002370092.054.250237009TF-2.682-23.68263380.5862783685431.2406884808440.296661622452351621151210WETL
2026-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2026155-12929.24625.35827.30282.0276295541771.4594496072.1694496072.054.219449607TF-2.754-24.75463380.5542262186531.215961093540.293511777965951621151210WETL
2026-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2026155-12929.58825.5227.55481.9298809764961.4346464442.0746464442.054.124646444TF-2.412-24.41263380.5002566088631.174340735490.308608924915181621151210WETL
2026-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.41626.8728.64383.5677666301531.2744101371.8444101372.053.894410137TF-1.584-23.58463381.4028107298131.8729810791530.346483970675541621151210DRYL
2026-02-27 19:00:05FORECAST2026155-12930.45226.90628.67983.6242300399241.2744101371.8444101372.053.894410137TF-1.548-25.54863381.4338578939731.8971126775410.348169612969761621151210DRYL
2026-02-27 15:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.95627.12229.03982.4267686345271.0523627731.6323627732.053.682362773TF-1.044-27.04463380.7744625888731.3860085297490.372070134883041621151210DRYL
2026-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026155-12931.1927.10429.14780.4293099320890.8181106781.1581106782.053.208110678TF-0.81-23.8163379.6700671505130.5366015027850.38334325177103162114128DRYL
2026-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2026155-12930.45226.34828.480.1790805766780.8141736681.1641736682.053.214173668TF-1.548-21.54863379.5313199225330.4304722814420.34816961296976162114128DRYL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026155-12930.70426.49228.59880.2293868820480.854331171.204331172.053.25433117TF-1.296-18.29663379.5592208565530.4518035747490.36005151670584162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.7425.93428.33782.3699164467750.976378481.126378482.053.17637848FF-1.26-16.2663380.7431064079131.3617778625050.36176033981154162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2026155-12930.90225.35828.1382.5205983238031.0177170851.1777170852.053.227717085TF-1.098-13.09863380.8262033901431.4260061611360.36948374342637162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026155-12929.94824.45827.20383.1360576434761.0681108131.2281108132.053.278110813TF-2.052-16.05263381.1652825171331.6885788990360.3248571546035162114128DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2026155-12930.16425.64627.90580.5456932787170.5480317920.6580317922.052.708031792FF-1.836-19.83663379.7345693741630.5859841521370.33477103266655162113126DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2026155-12929.3925.7927.5980.4987150875290.5476380910.6576380912.052.707638091FF-2.61-20.6163379.7085353169730.5660492007840.29982684302798162113126DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2026155-12929.17424.99827.08680.5009498492730.535433360.645433362.052.69543336FF-2.826-18.82663379.7097738325430.5669974605720.29037749537302162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2026155-12930.07426.90628.4982.1971811496360.4570868610.5170868612.042.557086861FF-1.926-20.92663380.6478084257931.2881768633860.33062574935611162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2026155-12931.98228.59830.2981.947474406170.4570868610.5170868612.042.557086861FF-0.018000000000001-17.01863380.5099714018231.1818311427440.42218285112578162113126DRYL
2026-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2026155-12932.52228.2230.37181.3106433805110.3330710460.3930710462.042.433071046FF0.522-14.47863380.1580474353130.9108954232440.44913054156545162112124DRYL
2026-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026155-12933.38629.3931.38880.8050141659680.3102363880.3102363882.042.350236388FF1.386-15.61463379.8782221854230.6960651250360.49268699955361162112124DRYL
2026-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2026155-12935.02429.35432.18980.7864778195480.3098426870.3098426872.042.349842687FF3.024-13.97663379.8679569726830.6881942803310.57507574186454163112125DRYL
2026-02-25 03:00:04FORECAST2026155-12935.45629.87632.66679.9430880444120.1744095430.1744095432.042.214409543FF3.456-10.54463379.4003859045930.3304384544550.59641363118732163112125DRYL
2026-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12936.33829.2132.77478.2765330855020.3712600430.3712600432.072.441260043FF4.338-14.66263378.4735058208629.6255939003730.63903629376655163112125DRYL
2026-02-24 19:00:05FORECAST2026155-12934.39429.2131.80278.2918834855020.3712600430.3712600432.072.441260043FF2.394-14.60663378.4820610965929.6320734287270.54357670365036163112125DRYL
2026-02-24 15:00:11FORECAST2026155-12934.21428.2231.21779.2481451532210.4858270340.4858270342.072.555827034FF2.214-21.78663379.0143596327330.036184987330.53451748176524163112125DRYL
2026-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026155-12943.0734.0738.5777.085962431099002.072.07FF11.07-20.9363377.8089449230829.1237661344740.8867955135503165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 07:00:07FORECAST2026155-12942.92633.9838.45377.590907674214002.012.01FF10.926-19.07463378.0910441652129.336427300270.88324802432522165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 03:00:09FORECAST2026155-12944.45633.58439.0277.78518697952002.092.09FF12.456-17.54463378.199486407929.4183177657970.9170768334556165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2026155-12944.31234.26839.2969.624752875491002.462.46FF12.312-28.68863373.5981207656326.0116768330540.91424704386753165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-23 19:00:12FORECAST2026155-12944.31234.26839.2970.78327540339002.742.74FF12.312-35.68863374.2571918847126.4911498848740.91424704386753165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-23 15:00:12FORECAST2026155-12944.34834.3439.34470.83473989586002.772.77FF12.348-33.65263374.286424519626.5124815273970.91496115547894165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-23 11:00:04FORECAST2026155-12940.78427.17633.9876.506755280483002.932.93FF8.784-47.21663377.484911710228.8801457622870.82110816372184164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2026155-12940.8227.51834.16975.323482470576002.62.6FF8.82-57.1863376.8214547960528.3835042448670.82229917780173164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 03:00:06FORECAST2026155-12941.14425.91633.5375.030897452197002.522.52FF9.144-53.85663376.6570956842328.2609199209260.83279277172924164111123DRYL
2026-02-22 23:00:04FORECAST2026155-12931.38820.24625.81775.48616098226700.123.493.61FF-0.612-65.61263376.912786336428.4516992656640.39296021715461162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 19:00:03FORECAST2026155-12931.38820.3925.88975.50027383912800.143.513.65FF-0.612-70.61263376.9207078471428.4576166580970.39296021715461162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2026155-12931.40620.55225.97975.51307956048100.143.493.63FF-0.594-72.59463376.9278954203228.4629861554390.39383783240668162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 11:00:04FORECAST2026155-12933.27828.77831.02877.8880903376300.013.543.55FF1.278-59.72263378.2569030223429.4617078334360.48722693757487162111122DRYL
2026-02-22 07:00:06FORECAST2026155-12933.27828.77831.02878.34549693170700.013.653.66FF1.278-53.72263378.5119389919229.6547059549060.48722693757487162111122DRYL
2026-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2026155-1293231.53231.76679.9277090695510.0681102730.23811027344.238110273TF0-5563379.391850575730.3239214561740.42307598451117162112124WETL