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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 3, 2026

[ Monday, March 2, 2026 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 4, 2026 ]

DAY 154 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/04/2026 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.618
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 69 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 372.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-03-04 07:00:05OBSERVATION2026154-13035.8399432.2300434.0349968.9188254166670.239999999999990.239999999999992.142.38FF3.83994-4.1600662372.34007296508 25.6612404843090.618145104990416 3112125DRYL
2026-03-04 03:00:05OBSERVATION2026154-13035.8399432.2300434.0349968.9188254166670.239999999999990.239999999999992.142.38FF3.83994-4.1600662372.34007296508 25.6612404843090.618145104990416 3112125DRYL
2026-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026154-13033.1728.32830.74969.7784476328520.3196852120.3196852122.142.459685212FF1.17-6.8362372.832032351526.0156404452890.49728217556947162112124DRYL
2026-03-03 07:00:03FORECAST2026154-13033.90828.431.15469.6679712009090.3799214650.3799214652.142.519921465FF1.908-6.09262372.7688671362525.9700507002430.53115076967503163112125DRYL
2026-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2026154-13034.30428.20231.25369.652087074310.3807088670.3807088672.142.520708867FF2.304-5.69662372.7597838840225.963496924890.5492471715694163112125DRYL
2026-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026154-13033.83628.1330.98370.5600790014210.3755907540.3755907542.142.515590754FF1.836-13.16462373.278426348426.3385552526690.52785247648774163112125DRYL
2026-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2026154-13033.63828.23830.93870.7847425236020.334645850.334645852.142.47464585FF1.638-13.36262373.406569038626.4314878460190.5187729955908163112125DRYL
2026-03-02 15:00:01FORECAST2026154-13033.02628.59830.81270.8977245134840.3566931060.3566931062.142.496693106FF1.026-13.97462373.4709836304426.4782429112110.4906683057493162112124DRYL
2026-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2026154-13032.928.4930.69570.8520723429580.4531498510.4531498512.142.593149851FF0.9-14.162373.4449581153726.4593491885030.48488321149594162112124DRYL
2026-03-02 07:00:03FORECAST2026154-13032.6328.23830.43471.0261382750710.5700790480.5700790482.142.710079048FF0.63-14.3762373.5441739199926.5314001486880.4724988471985162113126DRYL
2026-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026154-13032.16228.05830.1171.1126136191370.6122050550.6122050552.142.752205055FF0.162-14.83862373.5934476763926.5672064952520.45110233237383162113126DRYL
2026-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2026154-13032.8128.27430.54272.9480484790550.5350396590.5350396592.142.675039659FF0.81-22.1962374.6367320547727.3290184919660.48075287746631162113126DRYL
2026-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2026154-13033.22428.41830.82172.9691149313920.5677168420.5677168422.142.707716842FF1.224-22.77662374.6486782822427.3377824644710.49976266703072163113127.5DRYL
2026-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026154-13032.84628.430.62372.7844724330590.5240160310.5240160312.142.664016031FF0.846-22.15462374.5439506541827.2609838513580.48240478802584162113126DRYL
2026-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13033.11628.1330.62372.7988093923110.7145673150.7145673152.142.854567315FF1.116-21.88462374.5520842123927.2669457860710.49480178917687162113126DRYL
2026-03-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026154-13032.95428.05830.50672.6408885710910.732283860.732283862.142.87228386FF0.954-21.04662374.4624771749127.2012870785170.48736221909354162113126DRYL
2026-03-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026154-13032.77428.2230.49772.5941166158140.692913760.692913762.142.83291376FF0.774-22.22662374.4359310491327.1818456437320.47910129735467162113126DRYL
2026-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026154-13032.86428.1330.49776.128648248430.6992129760.6992129762.142.839212976FF0.864-27.13662376.4331481005128.6573467207920.48323085837353162113126DRYL
2026-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026154-13032.84628.52630.68676.1951214239310.8027563390.8027563392.142.942756339FF0.846-25.15462376.4705378204228.685218341760.48240478802584162113126DRYL
2026-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2026154-13032.84628.4930.66876.0074664785190.7944886180.7944886182.142.934488618FF0.846-26.15462376.3649697358128.6065478208830.48240478802584162113126DRYL
2026-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026154-13033.78228.90431.34375.5275406875770.736220870.736220872.142.87622087FF1.782-24.21862376.0947513180528.4055116325580.52537749010014163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2026154-13033.38628.6731.02875.461636377690.7118114080.7118114082.142.851811408FF1.386-24.61462376.0576186887128.3779232785470.50720381289795163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2026154-13033.06228.43630.74975.3541500532780.6374019190.6374019192.142.777401919FF1.062-24.93862375.9970440638928.3329376779790.49232160373402162113126DRYL
2026-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2026154-13034.77229.4832.12677.5465896369680.5653546360.5653546362.142.705354636FF2.772-25.22862377.229342084629.2528489896580.57049970300961163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-27 19:00:05FORECAST2026154-13035.04229.87632.45977.605478348270.5653546360.5653546362.142.705354636FF3.042-26.95862377.2623469432429.2776248973210.58267250748808163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-27 15:00:03FORECAST2026154-13035.47429.82232.64877.4939093119670.5771656660.5771656662.142.717165666FF3.474-28.52662377.1998126039829.2306880704240.6019806373039163113127.5DRYL
2026-02-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026154-13037.5830.14633.86376.6552385500940.3397639630.3397639632.142.479763963FF5.58-26.4262376.7291707181528.8782644501790.69180524771246163112125DRYL
2026-02-27 07:00:04FORECAST2026154-13037.63429.5733.60276.3255895206250.35433090.35433092.142.4943309FF5.634-23.36662376.5439049436528.7399355252220.69398993493319163112125DRYL
2026-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026154-13040.15429.69634.92576.1184882567120.3488190860.3488190862.142.488819086FF8.154-19.84662376.4274327692528.653087120750.78739113467533164112126DRYL
2026-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2026154-13041.0930.48835.78977.4653517039010.1480315760.1480315762.142.288031576FF9.09-17.9162377.1838032429529.218675975230.81732597340253164112126DRYL
2026-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2026154-13042.72831.0136.86977.4453714634080.1618111110.1618111112.142.301811111FF10.728-15.27262377.1726016534729.2102722408730.86301568158354165112127DRYL
2026-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026154-13042.58430.68636.63577.6189735219170.1578741010.1578741012.142.297874101FF10.584-17.41662377.2699097739629.2833031373610.859342885431165112127DRYL
2026-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13041.3630.77636.06877.76646779260.1059055690.1059055692.142.245905569FF9.36-20.6462377.3525501455829.3453749373520.82544772205619164112126DRYL
2026-02-26 07:00:04FORECAST2026154-13041.01830.00235.5177.6252175258090.1059055690.1059055692.142.245905569FF9.018-20.98262377.2734088886729.2859304316870.81512103681739164112126DRYL
2026-02-26 03:00:07FORECAST2026154-13041.73829.91235.82577.5961821744340.1133858880.1133858882.142.253385888FF9.738-19.26262377.2571371233529.2737135388290.83642726930464164112126DRYL
2026-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2026154-13042.40430.21836.31179.6073963994730.062992160.062992162.132.19299216FF10.404-21.59662378.3814135679330.1219591800950.85465895982233165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-25 19:00:02FORECAST2026154-13042.96230.00236.48279.5019208086210.062992160.062992162.132.19299216FF10.962-20.03862378.3225949036730.0773729801440.8688435248627165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2026154-13042.9830.16436.57279.5154446289020.0633858610.0633858612.132.193385861FF10.98-18.0262378.3301373685530.0830890893740.86928463914196165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13043.2528.81436.03279.2331296002.132.13FF11.25-19.7562378.1726317080329.9638011392960.87577880673476165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-25 07:00:04FORECAST2026154-13042.99829.15636.07779.345646716667002.132.13FF10.998-20.00262378.2354193838830.0113339621640.86972472980422165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-25 03:00:04FORECAST2026154-13043.0730.00236.53679.255020316667002.132.13FF11.07-16.9362378.1848487418729.9730478704930.87147486617398165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2026154-13044.85229.58837.2276.1915064002.162.16FF12.852-22.14862376.4685046101628.6837024784040.90969701541802165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 19:00:05FORECAST2026154-13044.67229.89437.28376.1376816002.162.16FF12.672-20.32862376.4382295355628.6611340624460.90626927009196165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 15:00:11FORECAST2026154-13043.93429.85836.89676.2556632002.162.16FF11.934-27.06662376.5045857640828.7106068852810.89121334378481165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13042.42228.79635.60977.858894431099002.162.16FF10.422-34.57862377.4043205953629.3842831550750.85513200629368165111123.5DRYL
2026-02-24 07:00:07FORECAST2026154-13040.60427.3233.96278.338452474214002.12.1FF8.604-33.39662377.6727378960329.5862978284740.8021248859358164111123DRYL
2026-02-24 03:00:09FORECAST2026154-13040.2826.99633.63878.63270617952002.182.18FF8.28-32.7262377.8372752276329.7103674466450.79157973571699164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2026154-13037.81425.86231.83870.495100875491002.552.55FF5.814-44.18662373.2413507471226.3116866718230.7012222402847164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 19:00:11FORECAST2026154-13037.81425.14231.47871.65362340339002.832.83FF5.814-51.18662373.9014701713526.7913951336320.7012222402847164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 15:00:12FORECAST2026154-13037.99425.77231.88371.72771989586002.862.86FF5.994-49.00662373.9436238681226.8221235096550.70837591781114164111123DRYL
2026-02-23 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13030.86624.31427.5977.056712880483003.023.02FF-1.134-59.13462376.9545935646229.0468818852880.39277163682034162111122DRYL
2026-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2026154-13031.06424.49427.77975.883772070576002.692.69FF-0.936-68.93662376.2953560838428.5547110322830.40156281988561162111122DRYL
2026-02-23 03:00:06FORECAST2026154-13031.76622.62227.19475.431582252197002.612.61FF-0.234-66.23462376.0406831542428.3653437215210.43310541670178162111122DRYL
2026-02-22 23:00:04FORECAST2026154-13031.62221.70426.66375.4861609822670.1188977020.1188977023.583.698897702TF-0.378-68.37862376.0714373738728.3881890624370.42659331945092162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2026154-13031.5521.4726.5175.5002738391280.1354331440.1354331443.63.735433144TF-0.45-73.4562376.0793890436228.3940968580450.42334464339185162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2026154-13032.41422.42427.41975.5130795604810.1401575560.1401575563.583.720157556TF0.414-74.58662376.0866039815428.3994576480890.46260988759378162112124DRYL
2026-02-22 11:00:04FORECAST2026154-13039.43422.9131.17277.895076737630.0106299270.0106299273.633.640629927FF7.434-63.56662377.4245838915629.3995169249010.76253356373966164111123DRYL
2026-02-22 07:00:06FORECAST2026154-13039.43424.3531.89278.3524833317070.011811030.011811033.743.75181103TF7.434-57.56662377.680586298629.592211842670.76253356373966164111123DRYL
2026-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2026154-13037.86823.5430.70479.9277090695510.1736221410.1736221414.094.263622141TF5.868-58.13262378.5599399788230.2574287480140.70337670030339164112126WETL
2026-02-21 23:00:05FORECAST2026154-13033.42229.89431.65878.5105728939620.3303151390.3303151394.044.370315139TF1.422-57.57862377.7689970992529.6588603838390.50885715165291163112125WETL
2026-02-21 19:00:04FORECAST2026154-13033.42229.89431.65877.2463478058890.3303151390.3303151393.84.130315139TF1.422-53.57862377.0609913109229.1265844788360.50885715165291163112125WETL
2026-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2026154-13035.56434.05234.80877.326190974307003.93.9TF3.564-48.43662377.1057732846929.1601530425250.60597359928916163111122.5DRYL
2026-02-21 11:00:03FORECAST2026154-13036.06835.0635.56483.563955550108004.744.74TF4.068-46.93262380.5764526061531.8024737689980.62811785032832163111122.5WETL
2026-02-21 07:00:08FORECAST2026154-13032.7229.9331.32584.809434004133005.145.14TF0.72-53.2862381.2628726449632.3346884358090.47662460868908162111122WETL
2026-02-21 03:00:06FORECAST2026154-13032.6332.57632.60385.314812248708005.15.1TF0.63-54.3762381.5407828110932.5510802507530.4724988471985162111122WETL