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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 23, 2026

[ Sunday, February 22, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 24, 2026 ]

DAY 146 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/24/2026 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.398
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.80 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 78 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 370.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 29.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-24 07:00:05OBSERVATION2026146-13831.1599423.7900227.4749878.4808141666670.81.272.153.42TF-0.84006-7.8400654370.95710452965 29.1130155843960.3980391918563716 2114128DRYL
2026-02-24 03:00:05OBSERVATION2026146-13831.1599423.7900227.4749878.4808141666670.81.272.153.42TF-0.84006-7.8400654370.95710452965 29.1130155843960.3980391918563716 2114128DRYL
2026-02-23 11:00:01FORECAST2026146-13828.32823.1825.75474.2819353702621.2066935651.6766935652.153.826693565TF-3.672-10.67254368.5237711513827.3746589510720.286250138207971621151210DRYL
2026-02-23 07:00:03FORECAST2026146-13828.23823.1825.70974.4470247748091.3303156791.8003156792.153.950315679TF-3.762-10.76254368.6199346539827.4426574076730.282951168794751621151210DRYL
2026-02-23 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13828.18423.68425.93474.5816009616331.3724416861.8424416862.153.992441686TF-3.816-10.81654368.6982945783427.4981090814760.280980578998281621151210DRYL
2026-02-22 23:00:02FORECAST2026146-13828.88623.52226.20472.6046077054581.232284132.602284132.154.75228413TF-3.114-12.11454367.544449175526.6854205467060.307099998367131621151210WETL
2026-02-22 19:00:01FORECAST2026146-13829.42623.32426.37573.0698131272591.3685046762.7385046762.154.888504676TF-2.574-11.57454367.8164815581626.8762815725810.327889673466471621151210WETL
2026-02-22 15:00:01FORECAST2026146-13829.0323.30626.16873.0537365417711.3488196262.7188196262.154.868819626TF-2.97-11.9754367.8070860146626.8696819599110.312587227625651621151210WETL
2026-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2026146-13829.06623.7226.39376.6055452817691.3968511482.7668511482.154.916851148TF-2.934-11.93454369.8735554727328.3343654022950.313965609969991621151210WETL
2026-02-22 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13829.26423.46826.36676.1418755204191.3637802642.6337802642.154.783780264TF-2.736-12.73654369.6048456947228.1424061526310.32159272851041621151210WETL
2026-02-22 03:00:06FORECAST2026146-13829.13824.6226.87977.4109039166071.5952764522.9552764522.155.105276452TF-2.862-11.86254370.3395320946228.6683179354980.316730153940521621151210WETL
2026-02-21 23:00:03FORECAST2026146-13828.63425.26826.95176.337448418621.7287410912.8987410912.155.048741091TF-3.366-11.36654369.718224327928.2233458790550.297600979644351621151210WETL
2026-02-21 19:00:02FORECAST2026146-13829.0324.76426.89776.2439984574641.4889771822.8989771822.155.048977182TF-2.97-10.9754369.6640560110828.1846657162880.312587227625651621151210WETL
2026-02-21 15:00:01FORECAST2026146-13829.55226.25827.90576.6299752172131.5803158143.0303158142.155.180315814TF-2.448-10.44854369.8877045388928.3444856319670.33282144722781621151210WETL
2026-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026146-13830.0227.39228.70678.0615366274451.5322842922.9422842922.155.092284292TF-1.98-10.9854370.7152895610328.9386051544220.35138802388331621151210WETL
2026-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2026146-13831.9128.23830.07478.2464494428351.6842528783.1442528782.155.294252878TT-0.09-8.0954370.8219682923429.0155023942790.429598740624511621151210WETL
2026-02-21 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13831.2827.37429.32778.4964600585471.5791347113.1091347112.155.259134711TT-0.72-9.7254370.9661231894229.1195274720120.403051896731071621151210WETL
2026-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2026146-13831.24426.49228.86880.083127209791.7937017563.2437017562.155.393701756TT-0.756-11.75654371.8788567951229.7812217953550.40154712331961621151210WETL
2026-02-20 19:00:01FORECAST2026146-13831.04627.73429.3980.0558750276561.7500009453.3100009452.155.460000945TT-0.954-9.95454371.8632109474429.7698347429910.393297503684441621151210WETL
2026-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2026146-13831.6427.69829.66980.0950773136281.8118120023.3118120022.155.461812002TT-0.36-9.3654371.8857171703729.7862152685950.418175101988371621151210WETL
2026-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2026146-13832.34227.30229.82278.1105244634391.4720480392.8620480392.155.012048039TF0.342-9.65854370.7435561922328.9589736156150.447995857327531621151210WETL
2026-02-20 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13831.20826.92429.06677.4987052854491.4421267632.6121267632.154.762126763TF-0.792-10.79254370.3902759423528.7047668358520.400043808085761621151210WETL
2026-02-20 03:00:19FORECAST2026146-13831.02827.48229.25577.5384879830341.4618118132.5918118132.154.741811813TF-0.972-10.97254370.4132641952628.7212844345610.392549847302061621151210WETL
2026-02-19 23:00:12FORECAST2026146-13830.6524.78227.71674.9193091551051.4925204912.3125204912.094.402520491TF-1.35-14.3554368.8948146473627.6373446642810.376944580161791621151210WETL
2026-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.38826.40228.89574.6910381690011.5145677472.3045677472.094.394567747TF-0.612-14.61254368.7619970384227.5432163960740.407574752186351621151210WETL
2026-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.94626.43829.19275.1810937243831.6204733162.3704733162.094.460473316TF-0.053999999999998-13.05454369.0470370933827.7453598844230.43112657527161621151210WETL
2026-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.11826.18628.65273.8033249874051.1704730731.9304730732.094.020473073TF-0.882-13.88254368.2447557047727.1776873801870.396292039062871621151210WETL
2026-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13830.18225.14227.66273.9721100319591.1744100831.8744100832.174.044410083TF-1.818-14.81854368.3431910243927.2471230559790.35790120438261621151210WETL
2026-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13830.03824.29627.16773.5348787891941.2279534191.8379534192.13.937953419TF-1.962-14.96254368.0881111103627.0673146342430.352109602063231621151210DRYL
2026-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2026146-13830.23623.21626.72671.9283276209471.2342526351.6042526352.213.814252635TF-1.764-17.76454367.1484155559226.4083715196180.36008159733511621151210DRYL
2026-02-18 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13830.3823.82827.10471.3008435918851.2342526351.5142526352.193.704252635TF-1.62-17.6254366.7803482671226.1517482443710.365918092408651621151210DRYL
2026-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026146-13830.77624.15227.46470.6427856916621.1153549331.3353549332.233.565354933TF-1.224-15.22454366.3937163495725.8830727828540.38212544374212162114128DRYL
2026-02-18 11:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.22623.86427.54571.6891418562221.0527564741.2627564742.293.552756474TF-0.774-17.77454367.0081840274426.3105017671370.40079528209849162114128DRYL
2026-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2026146-13831.89223.28827.5971.1552966665191.0507879691.1907879692.183.370787969TF-0.108-15.10854366.6948900346626.0922836865130.42883521699674162114128DRYL
2026-02-18 03:00:04FORECAST2026146-13831.87423.6327.75271.6928080547041.0972446871.2572446872.193.447244687TF-0.126-15.12654367.010334115326.3120014378210.42807195955948162114128DRYL
2026-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026146-13830.48823.68427.08668.0925548929560.5850396860.7450396862.182.925039686FF-1.512-19.51254364.8892470303824.8462410832650.37031599626934162113126DRYL
2026-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13829.62423.28826.45668.2478904714310.5850396860.7450396862.192.935039686FF-2.376-19.37654364.9811638408524.9091944939460.33565270603236162113126DRYL
2026-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2026146-13829.94823.01826.48368.094369077720.3326773450.6226773452.282.902677345FF-2.052-21.05254364.8903207482824.8469761739210.34850708372508162113126DRYL
2026-02-17 11:00:04FORECAST2026146-13830.39825.68228.0470.4750692362910.6720476070.9320476072.333.262047607FF-1.602-10.60254366.2950737104325.8146706806550.3666498724864162113126DRYL
2026-02-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13831.51425.98828.75170.4210719120880.6661420920.9261420922.273.196142092FF-0.486-9.48654366.2633061743925.7926546228660.41286698630672162113126DRYL
2026-02-17 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13831.9126.63629.27370.1155501740690.6228349820.8528349822.243.092834982FF-0.09-9.0954366.0834804937625.6681446444580.42959874062451162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 23:00:04FORECAST2026146-13831.2824.5327.90567.4849873112850.3814962690.5114962692.292.801496269FF-0.72-19.7254364.5293821857824.6002607313980.40305189673107162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.42423.68427.55467.7961239086730.3814962690.5114962692.332.841496269FF-0.576-19.57654364.7137390842524.7261778461520.40908514414571162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2026146-13830.18222.85626.51968.3850214454150.5480317920.6480317922.272.918031792FF-1.818-25.81854365.0622782960624.9647917301880.3579012043826162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026146-13830.222.22626.21371.7042438336430.330708840.750708842.453.20070884FF-1.8-27.854367.0170406419726.3166793732940.35862749144904162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13829.5720.87625.22371.7162287344970.330708840.750708842.443.19070884FF-2.43-23.4354367.0240689928126.3215820829540.33352837724888162113126DRYL
2026-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13831.5862327.29371.9704642987510.5106301970.9006301972.343.240630197FF-0.414-17.41454367.1731109214826.4256192710360.41589831056837162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026146-13832.25226.81629.53472.4970645142760.5059057850.7359057852.523.255905785FF0.252-13.74854367.4815167261426.6413312258990.44415253220846162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2026146-13832.21626.7829.49871.7489715545920.5074805890.7474805892.433.177480589FF0.216-12.78454367.0432693982326.3349770953580.4426166506366162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2026146-1383226.54629.27373.7389473947710.4374018110.9874018112.483.467401811TF0-1454368.2071996188127.1512113230670.43342025371869162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026146-13832.30627.73430.0276.5758016681550.645669641.695669642.334.02566964TF0.306-5.69454369.856327702628.3220447958670.446457920755531621151210WETL
2026-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026146-13832.928.16630.53376.4068247774660.6787405241.7487405242.243.988740524TF0.9-8.154369.7584300540628.2520675751320.471919669002291621151210DRYL
2026-02-15 03:00:08FORECAST2026146-13832.66625.71829.19277.1376538337360.5755908621.7255908622.354.075590862TF0.666-7.33454370.1815377441128.5549353141460.461869725737381621151210WETL
2026-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026146-13831.29824.72828.01375.2601275535560.5574806161.5074806162.33.807480616TF-0.702-12.70254369.092973782427.7779842859850.403804823583291621151210DRYL
2026-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.29824.6227.95975.3993513619020.5574806161.5074806162.293.797480616TF-0.702-17.70254369.1738721569227.8354705003930.403804823583291621151210DRYL
2026-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026146-13829.62421.36225.49376.4463729916160.2562993511.5262993512.433.956299351TF-2.376-24.37654369.7813462858828.2684427235120.335652706032361621151210DRYL
2026-02-14 11:00:04FORECAST2026146-13836.08625.05230.56989.837194297740.7397641793.0597641792.966.019764179TT4.086-21.91454377.4098068259133.9054381456920.607858427425151631151212.5WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:06FORECAST2026146-13836.08625.05230.56989.9069951812220.7397641793.0597641792.986.039764179TT4.086-17.91454377.4488950028733.9352959841810.607858427425151631151212.5WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2026146-13835.52825.32230.425104.268454613041.2122053794.4022053793.297.692205379TT3.528-17.47254385.3456293975540.1793932691720.584515989115791631151212.5WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026146-13831.60421.70426.65485.7134744231650.0366141931.8866141933.355.236614193TF-0.396-21.39654375.0882004390332.1501128747610.416656931487161621151210WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:03FORECAST2026146-13831.60421.70426.65485.9662056348710.0366141931.8866141933.55.386614193TF-0.396-12.39654375.2311857403832.2572012739730.416656931487161621151210WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2026146-13828.7621.3825.0791.8001394228640.251968642.281968643.776.05196864TT-3.24-11.2454378.5064085720834.7469410793640.302333769297141621151210WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:04FORECAST2026146-13829.82228.50829.16577.2449757167270.1177165990.3377165993.684.017716599TF-2.178-4.17854370.2436047864428.5994582610020.34348647799933162112124WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2026146-13829.82228.50829.16577.416601677670.1177165990.3377165993.714.047716599TF-2.178-5.17854370.3428253971328.6706829979530.34348647799933162112124WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2026146-13826.61826.36626.49276.8769334744880.0240157610.2640157613.754.014015761TF-5.382-1.38254370.0306858685428.4468244210350.2268873976935161112123WETL