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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 22, 2026

[ Saturday, February 21, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, February 23, 2026 ]

DAY 145 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/23/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.429
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 70 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 25.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -139

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-23 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026145-13931.6299226.1528.8899669.6832595833330.0999999999999940.469999999999992.152.62FF-0.3700818.6299253364.94525373315 25.4305748495920.4293226648803416 2112124DRYL
2026-02-23 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026145-13931.6299226.1528.8899669.6832595833330.0999999999999940.469999999999992.152.62FF-0.3700818.6299253364.94525373315 25.4305748495920.4293226648803416 2112124DRYL
2026-02-22 11:00:01FORECAST2026145-13929.58825.59227.5971.376417927251.0003942411.3703942412.153.520394241TF-2.41216.58853365.9449528800526.1198398951350.33421090584771162114128DRYL
2026-02-22 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13929.35425.727.52771.1356917519910.8996067851.2696067852.153.419606785TF-2.64616.35453365.8030818769826.0216552743290.32383912919168162114128DRYL
2026-02-22 03:00:06FORECAST2026145-13929.87626.27628.07671.4829542035430.9877958091.3577958092.153.507795809TF-2.12416.87653366.0077119208526.1633125093820.34715124179469162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 23:00:01FORECAST2026145-13930.09225.37627.73469.5381027080710.7062995941.1662995942.153.316299594TF-1.90818.09253364.859347840525.3716268041320.35697578006292162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 19:00:01FORECAST2026145-13929.69626.09627.89670.4026987380750.9468509051.4068509052.153.556850905TF-2.30417.69653365.3705608019425.7230735199010.33904150239752162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 15:00:01FORECAST2026145-13929.94825.98827.96870.5465529749840.9913391181.4513391182.153.601339118TF-2.05217.94853365.4555091577625.7816264367970.35041508409154162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026145-13929.4824.85427.16772.3090086530610.9492131111.4092131112.153.559213111TF-2.5217.4853366.4937532090926.5007999720890.3294075959385162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2026145-13930.224.6227.4172.201721752970.8807091371.4607091372.153.610709137TF-1.818.253366.4306843945326.4569263164040.36192432334463162114128DRYL
2026-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2026145-13929.4824.99827.23972.6053155199320.9507879151.5307879152.153.680787915TF-2.5217.4853366.6678485274226.6220348333480.32940759593851621151210DRYL
2026-02-20 23:00:02FORECAST2026145-13929.22824.90827.06872.8935973692120.8106303591.4506303592.153.600630359TF-2.77215.22853366.8371030346326.7400760886940.31830978609535162114128DRYL
2026-02-20 19:00:01FORECAST2026145-13930.03825.64627.84273.2320124968280.6901578531.5601578532.153.710157853TF-1.96217.03853367.0356334531726.8787580958240.354510437679061621151210DRYL
2026-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.1126.1528.1372.9777820961280.6271656931.4971656932.153.647165693TF-1.8917.1153366.8865057484526.774563470520.3577988952754162114128DRYL
2026-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2026145-13929.73225.93427.83372.6159365186570.5830711811.3930711812.153.543071181TF-2.26815.73253366.674086470926.6263821862070.34065764532089162114128DRYL
2026-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2026145-13929.8424.78227.31171.6385339574310.5759845631.1659845632.153.315984563TF-2.1615.8453366.099331289526.2268193763760.34552354169333162114128DRYL
2026-02-20 03:00:19FORECAST2026145-13929.73224.69227.21271.5968077188050.5421262771.1321262772.153.282126277TF-2.26815.73253366.0747626757426.2097843940020.34065764532089162114128DRYL
2026-02-19 23:00:11FORECAST2026145-13929.76824.22426.99668.7194755633350.4019687210.8219687212.092.911968721FF-2.23212.76853364.3742792652225.0396093798740.34227671700925162113126DRYL
2026-02-19 19:00:03FORECAST2026145-13930.21824.15227.18568.5216078086130.4795278180.7895278182.092.879527818FF-1.78212.21853364.2568834535824.9594673095940.36275135491213162113126DRYL
2026-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2026145-13930.18224.04427.11368.3112863719990.4874018380.7474018382.092.837401838FF-1.81813.18253364.1320341122124.8743276594580.36109793575639162113126DRYL
2026-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2026145-13929.94823.61226.7868.7712701508260.5625987290.7625987292.092.852598729FF-2.05212.94853364.404999480125.0605946635580.35041508409154162113126DRYL
2026-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13929.89423.23426.56468.7729221086040.5716538520.7016538522.172.871653852FF-2.10612.89453364.4059792167125.061264024580.34796615213636162113126DRYL
2026-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026145-13930.57824.00827.29368.0101818224430.500000270.610000272.12.71000027FF-1.42212.57853363.9531786870224.752521857360.37942173665653162113126DRYL
2026-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.63222.9126.77166.1781305071640.3035434710.3735434712.212.583543471FF-1.3689.63253362.8619912270924.0135282115150.38194261207663162112124DRYL
2026-02-18 19:00:03FORECAST2026145-13930.84822.22626.53765.5975298920380.2803151120.2803151122.192.470315112FF-1.1529.84853362.5151189595723.7800963522660.39207524261737162112124DRYL
2026-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.57822.24426.41165.5039669280080.2181103540.2181103542.232.448110354FF-1.42211.57853362.4591731118923.7425136882750.37942173665653162112124DRYL
2026-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.81222.71226.76267.0098038588490.1425197620.2125197622.292.502519762FF-1.1888.81253363.3579732891824.3485465206570.39038117486821162112124DRYL
2026-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2026145-13931.33422.42426.87966.0988582905020.1429134630.1429134632.182.322913463FF-0.66611.33453362.8146612230223.9816348778970.41513298552158162112124DRYL
2026-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2026145-13931.24422.33426.78966.2891286134050.1622048120.1622048122.192.352204812FF-0.75611.24453362.928247372324.05819726750.41083835872018162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026145-13930.5622.22626.39365.0195109556230.1618111110.1618111112.182.341811111FF-1.447.5653362.1692805740423.5480695060740.37858257637823162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2026145-13931.2822.51426.89765.1141252691750.1618111110.1618111112.192.351811111FF-0.729.2853362.2259246579223.5860242339180.41255495801032162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2026145-13931.38822.96427.17666.282301385040.2842521220.2942521222.282.574252122FF-0.6127.38853362.924172654224.0554493917820.41771467175568162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2026145-13933.02624.45828.74266.9859195236170.2645670720.2645670722.332.594567072FF1.02617.02653363.3437440813724.3389148004440.4971972418467162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13933.02625.08829.05766.9714203534880.2606300620.2606300622.272.530630062FF1.02617.02653363.3351057098124.3330680936710.4971972418467162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 03:00:05FORECAST2026145-13932.70224.60228.65266.7875731748360.2334646930.2334646932.242.473464693FF0.70216.70253363.2255449320824.2589526611210.48136502771713162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026145-13931.122.71226.90665.1423011008530.1275591240.1275591242.292.417559124FF-0.97.153362.2427904496123.5973289270820.40398933329986162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026145-13931.02822.56826.79865.33321645420.1275591240.1275591242.332.457559124FF-0.9727.02853362.3570388181823.6739508508110.40057568389776162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2026145-13929.78621.54225.66464.8077340914090.1000000540.1000000542.272.370000054FF-2.2141.78653362.0424437896123.4631504269210.34308734295699162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.25421.36225.80869.4732467514950.1318898350.4218898352.452.871889835FF-1.7460.25453364.8209549292625.3452962219160.36440733589654162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13930.79422.74826.77169.4619759407430.1318898350.4218898352.442.861889835FF-1.2064.79453364.8142822796325.3407208985470.38953491838617162112124DRYL
2026-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2026145-13930.63222.78426.70868.6022770011550.074803190.394803192.342.73480319FF-1.3688.63253364.3047519652424.9921355071560.38194261207663162112124DRYL
2026-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026145-13931.74824.06227.90569.2569742840910.1244095160.4244095162.332.754409516FF-0.25211.74853364.6928819615325.2575255476010.43501139729096162112124DRYL
2026-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2026145-13932.70224.11628.40968.5762565087980.1251969180.4351969182.232.665196918FF0.70212.70253364.2893126660924.9815973488030.48136502771713162112124DRYL
2026-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2026145-13932.03625.0728.55371.0947952824510.1543307920.7343307922.33.034330792FF0.03600000000000112.03653365.7789710855926.0049810679560.44894055752659162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026145-13933.29628.4930.89372.4986943351870.5732286561.1732286562.213.383228656TF1.29620.29653366.6052182624126.5783996604910.510395186260931631141210DRYL
2026-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13932.8125.35829.08472.2151242610330.5688979451.1988979452.113.308897945TF0.8116.8153366.438564024626.4624064350710.4866404014563162114128DRYL
2026-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2026145-13933.90825.35829.63373.3044442334060.5287404431.2687404432.233.498740443TF1.90817.90853367.0781031900726.9084563446010.540245914965941631141210DRYL
2026-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026145-13933.825.32229.56170.9912836698860.381889971.081889972.173.25188997TF1.813.853365.717933918125.9627855899440.534989785048681631141210DRYL
2026-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2026145-13933.29624.94429.1271.097078742490.381889971.081889972.163.24188997TF1.2969.29653365.7803173809826.0059120272890.510395186260931631141210DRYL
2026-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026145-13931.04624.94427.99574.2702166249230.6051184371.3351184372.363.695118437TF-0.9544.04653367.6436296656227.3049720160380.40142839578713162114128DRYL
2026-02-14 11:00:04FORECAST2026145-13931.1925.44828.31985.2300684120711.933071912.843071912.445.28307191TF-0.810.1953373.9651148623231.8730723234430.408266667670051621151210WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13931.1925.44828.31985.2998692955531.933071912.843071912.465.30307191TF-0.814.1953374.004813709231.9025617253020.408266667670051621151210WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2026145-13930.84825.3428.09494.2690788701062.3649619073.7349619072.756.484961907TT-1.1524.84853379.0478841378735.732494885340.392075242617371621151210WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026145-13929.35423.55826.45685.2856511388951.1311029732.2211029732.985.201102973TF-2.6465.35453373.9967277860431.8965544530480.323839129191681621151210WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026145-13929.35423.55826.45685.5383823506011.1311029732.2211029733.135.351102973TF-2.64614.35453374.1404135195332.0033657444450.323839129191681621151210WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:04FORECAST2026145-13929.82223.91826.8789.0906928192441.283465262.413465263.395.80346526TT-2.17817.82253376.1502858216933.5114895680110.344710758604961621151210WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026145-13937.68819.02228.35576.1290412564260.2224410650.4024410653.53.902441065TF5.68823.68853368.7282030708828.0709245839910.71371091425975164112126DRYL
2026-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2026145-13937.68819.02228.35576.3006672173690.2224410650.4024410653.533.932441065TF5.68822.68853368.8280841465928.1418289088890.71371091425975164112126DRYL
2026-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2026145-13935.88819.63427.76176.6193962699470.2366143010.3866143013.63.986614301TF3.88829.88853369.01345926128.2735884640630.63445654604128163112125DRYL
2026-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2026145-13930.77626.3328.55387.2198656556560.3559057041.4859057044.055.535905704TF-1.22434.77653375.0940455470632.7156522608510.38868918522484162114128WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026145-13930.77626.31228.54486.7318724543830.3559057041.4859057044.025.505905704TF-1.22438.77653374.8177057313932.5086414471390.38868918522484162114128WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:22FORECAST2026145-13925.64617.56421.60586.9893125034710.0964567451.5164567453.725.236456745TF-6.35432.64653374.9635310534132.617819780210.18102569083634161115127.5WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026145-13930.68625.98828.33784.13923094105700.834.164.99TF-1.31425.68653373.3437920297931.4128595380040.38446850143657162113126WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2026145-13930.68625.98828.33783.23149677737200.764.114.87TF-1.31420.68653372.8254478528731.0308200614880.38446850143657162113126WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:09FORECAST2026145-13927.71627.06827.39291.2432356649450.0736220871.4136220873.995.403622087TF-4.28414.71653377.3593848924334.4314912861180.25535709387388162114128WETL