MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 21, 2026

[ Friday, February 20, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 22, 2026 ]

DAY 144 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/22/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.171
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 48

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.37 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 68 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -140

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-22 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026144-14026.4219.5099822.9649968.0969766666670.370.5222.52FF-5.5848.4252363.1142558423 24.7269830074270.1714717506328116 1113124.5DRYL
2026-02-22 03:00:05OBSERVATION2026144-14026.4219.5099822.9649968.0969766666670.370.5222.52FF-5.5848.4252363.1142558423 24.7269830074270.1714717506328116 1113124.5DRYL
2026-02-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14027.06815.87221.4768.8442517252180.460630170.6106301722.61063017FF-4.93249.06852363.5594749861625.0289800130360.1922489332999161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2026144-14027.08615.78221.43469.0738861010170.5775593670.72755936722.727559367FF-4.91449.08652363.6961192380325.1219043156290.19284718462872161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-21 03:00:04FORECAST2026144-14026.97815.65621.31769.1235009119520.5799215730.72992157322.729921573FF-5.02248.97852363.7256321307725.1419890642920.18927470148316161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-20 23:00:01FORECAST2026144-14026.99616.48421.7469.708051303320.6401578260.79015782622.790157826FF-5.00446.99652364.0730664037425.3788239910290.18986727563102161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-20 19:00:01FORECAST2026144-14027.82417.18622.50570.5684736955140.8665359011.01653590123.016535901FF-4.17647.82452364.5835308185825.7281033043890.21834176685316161114126DRYL
2026-02-20 15:00:02FORECAST2026144-14027.71618.44623.08170.5454701233740.8681107051.01811070523.018110705FF-4.28447.71652364.5698979552525.7187548440830.21449419461168161114126DRYL
2026-02-20 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14027.39218.10422.74870.3274557212260.8098429570.95984295722.959842957FF-4.60847.39252364.4406540940725.6301839638150.20319024453565161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2026144-14027.42817.20422.31669.3934351379140.59055150.740551522.7405515FF-4.57247.42852363.8861347604325.2513088900840.20442842921235161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-20 03:00:19FORECAST2026144-14027.517.6922.59569.4248518581840.5874018920.73740189222.737401892FF-4.547.552363.9048079636625.2640373833580.2069182036866161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-19 23:00:11FORECAST2026144-14027.08617.04222.06466.9712127621540.4232285750.51322857522.513228575FF-4.91444.08652362.44193925324.2731762276410.19284718462872161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-19 19:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.31216.26821.2966.4565954422230.3098426870.39984268722.399842687FF-5.68843.31252362.1339641931524.0661903542730.16815348724516161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 15:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.6916.10621.39866.2456204502870.2610237630.35102376322.351023763FF-5.3143.6952362.0075888621323.9814173318840.17994860218992161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.56415.54821.05666.3635910567770.2027560150.29275601522.292756015FF-5.43643.56452362.0782623349724.0288137321460.17596056779224161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14026.56415.45821.01166.3188395748360.1342520410.30425204122.304252041FF-5.43643.56452362.0514552459624.0108323782930.17596056779224161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026144-14027.26615.51221.38965.841378067350.1106299810.21062998122.210629981FF-4.73443.26652361.7652558882223.8191229845680.19889191198314161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2026144-14027.01416.2521.63264.7415204225270.0685039740.1485039742.132.278503974FF-4.98640.01452361.1046584897723.3784646222850.19046098654612161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 19:00:03FORECAST2026144-14026.74416.82621.78564.29413173351400.062.132.19FF-5.25639.74452360.8354190655123.1995999675160.18167495885477161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.92416.93421.92964.49076870574900.12.132.23FF-5.07641.92452360.9537932815823.2781875959860.187503805997161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.00615.72820.86766.354951181210.0677165720.2277165722.132.357716572FF-5.99439.00652362.0730871031924.0253420187620.15897722212902161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 07:00:04FORECAST2026144-14026.02416.32221.17365.4376259370500.092.092.18FF-5.97641.02452361.5229683116423.6572047680290.15950776818728161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2026144-14025.82615.7120.76865.51802213896400.122.072.19FF-6.17440.82652361.5712330750323.6894320534220.15373526392741161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026144-14026.1515.54820.84964.20970545807500.152.032.18FF-5.8538.1552360.7845768361323.1658714124640.16325391750046161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2026144-14026.70815.63821.17364.31170364596100.082.112.19FF-5.29238.70852360.8459996516623.2066209914280.18052290897032161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2026144-14026.27617.4221.84864.8264675764750.0106299270.1406299272.152.290629927FF-5.72437.27652361.1557453076223.4124512132420.16705661968617161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2026144-14029.24618.46423.85565.71506866632400.112.222.33FF-2.75445.24652361.6894855975823.7684493819330.27255537687941162112124DRYL
2026-02-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14028.4918.53623.51365.75497018434100.082.192.27FF-3.5145.4952361.7134242860423.7844554292040.24292783296187161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-17 03:00:05FORECAST2026144-14029.22818.96824.09865.69324950383900.062.182.24FF-2.77245.22852361.6763942892123.759697609690.27182968622139162111122DRYL
2026-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026144-14027.21217.70822.4664.45747578147700.052.242.29FF-4.78837.21252360.9337553087723.2648787915330.19706663772432161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.5117.07821.79464.64017529410800.042.292.33FF-5.4936.5152361.0436955857723.3379277714970.17426863551603161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-16 15:00:03FORECAST2026144-14024.63816.41220.52564.25268639314500.072.22.27FF-7.36232.63852360.8104616873823.1830414421650.12202035198861161111121.5DRYL
2026-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14024.45815.42219.9468.6492816309490.2885828330.5185828332.222.738582833FF-7.54231.45852363.4433951843824.9501279929210.11764702960184161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-16 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14027.15815.15221.15568.6476207795740.2885828330.5585828332.172.728582833FF-4.84235.15852363.4424061124624.9494564700240.1952515165374161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2026144-14028.77816.50222.6468.1414045899010.318897810.498897812.162.65889781FF-3.22238.77852363.1407491966924.7449207140910.25400538480365162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026144-14028.32817.65422.99168.4794342809330.110236280.340236282.292.63023628FF-3.67241.32852363.3422259072424.8814700805030.2368133173588161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2026144-14026.61818.17622.39767.8823261784930.110236280.360236282.182.54023628FF-5.38240.61852362.9862128786924.6403485009270.17766283986378161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2026144-14026.27618.39222.33470.1964297430830.4000002160.6700002162.212.880000216FF-5.72441.27652364.3629444962325.5769778343120.16705661968617161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026144-14029.58819.61624.60269.3866126772430.4791341170.7391341172.072.809134117FF-2.41247.58852363.882079487325.2485449095750.28652320810461162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14031.69419.74225.71868.9808429304740.5027561770.7827561771.962.742756177FF-0.30644.69452363.6407633752525.0842463815060.37910329275717162113126DRYL
2026-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2026144-14031.26219.83225.54770.2817875728490.6169294670.8869294672.082.966929467FF-0.73845.26252364.4135719170125.6116372501350.35931381463711162113126DRYL
2026-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026144-14030.97417.54624.2668.5669654699020.5716538520.8016538522.072.871653852FF-1.02640.97452363.394369157524.9168491619790.34632365874576162113126DRYL
2026-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2026144-14029.91218.0523.98168.60750956280.5716538520.8016538522.062.861653852FF-2.08836.91252363.4185177719724.9332394333390.30006091415808162113126DRYL
2026-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026144-14029.2118.523.85570.0312708162460.6622050820.8922050822.23.092205082FF-2.7934.2152364.264954291225.5099376628350.27110495708203162113126DRYL
2026-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026144-14027.87819.4923.68472.6507334369570.3929135981.0929135982.263.352913598TF-4.12229.87852365.8142700434526.5766750203620.22028033872182161114126DRYL
2026-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14027.91416.46622.1972.7205343204380.3929135981.0929135982.283.372913598TF-4.08633.91452365.8554138601126.6052011799320.22157817381832161114126DRYL
2026-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2026144-14027.5916.62822.10978.1868103247820.8303154091.8103154092.314.120315409TF-4.4134.5952369.0549369990728.8552283585710.21005547602991161115127.5WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026144-14030.25417.40223.82875.8563260019840.7161421191.5861421192.484.066142119TF-1.74637.25452367.6962873780527.8920894450690.314656132688581621151210WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026144-14030.25420.13825.19676.109057213690.7161421191.5861421192.634.216142119TF-1.74646.25452367.8440163012327.9962612823840.314656132688581621151210WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2026144-14030.6519.77825.21478.1915303379070.7511815081.8011815082.724.521181508TF-1.3548.6552369.0576805679528.8571848265660.331923402183111621151210WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026144-14027.98613.65820.82274.29611639677201.062.623.68TF-4.01446.98652366.7821955816427.2504926951980.22418688767644161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2026144-14027.98613.65820.82274.46774235771601.062.653.71TF-4.01445.98652366.8829247954127.320943119110.22418688767644161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2026144-14027.62614.91821.27274.536493857623012.753.75TF-4.37454.62652366.9232635100327.3491735768340.21131815359372161114126DRYL
2026-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2026144-14031.83824.5328.18486.1723937046110.8196854821.8396854823.345.179685482TF-0.16264.83852373.6499302437732.1983088966670.385773795660341621151210WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026144-14032.07224.85428.46385.6809784169640.8196854821.8296854823.325.149685482TF0.07200000000000369.07252373.3698477035131.9906938626290.396684914521381621151210WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:19FORECAST2026144-14031.44226.09628.76985.9648944653030.9586619352.0686619353.075.138661935TF-0.55868.44252373.5317085262632.1106139029050.367517143030221621151210WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026144-14035.47415.04425.25984.1392309410570.7767720731.1267720733.864.986772073TF3.47456.47452372.4888550880831.3409258012260.560073535907241631141210WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2026144-14035.47413.1924.33283.2314967773720.7228350361.0528350363.824.872835036TF3.47451.47452371.9685374561130.9594981265620.560073535907241631141210WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2026144-14035.74415.42225.58390.4919517483370.8791343331.7091343333.625.329134333TF3.74447.74452376.0968815463534.0337408575930.572970056869791631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2026144-14034.98822.38828.68891.7899678736370.4866144361.8966144363.145.036614436TF2.98845.98852376.8269535974734.5889339646320.536707552779011631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026144-14034.98822.3728.67991.6153244088860.4854333331.9354333333.095.025433333TF2.98848.98852376.7288650778434.5141371882980.536707552779011631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:04FORECAST2026144-14035.2421.95628.59892.516742266010.4161419571.8061419573.245.046141957TF3.2440.2452377.2346795308134.9005236199530.548844245736561631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:05FORECAST2026144-14032.4525.71829.08490.7587174987080.251968641.801968643.275.07196864TF0.4546.4552376.247121107934.1477061743340.414479098223541621151210WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:10FORECAST2026144-14032.4525.71829.08486.4846672703180.251968641.801968643.265.06196864TF0.4550.4552373.8277292385932.3303667796180.414479098223541621151210WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2026144-14029.10228.59828.8583.91434202062800.913.164.07TF-2.89844.10252372.3600594350631.2463493822550.2667768950516162113126WETL