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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 20, 2026

[ Thursday, February 19, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 21, 2026 ]

DAY 143 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2026 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.090
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 67 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 361.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 24.09 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -141

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-21 07:00:06OBSERVATION2026143-14123.5999414.7399819.1699666.67473541666700.251.92.15FF-8.4000667.5999451361.3674420861 24.0940785892890.09016493737944816 1112123DRYL
2026-02-21 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026143-14123.5999414.7399819.1699666.67473541666700.251.92.15FF-8.4000667.5999451361.3674420861 24.0940785892890.09016493737944816 1112123DRYL
2026-02-20 11:00:01FORECAST2026143-14122.08210.27416.1786700.251.92.15FF-9.91866.08251361.5627779707624.2247061240410.064003097824643161112123DRYL
2026-02-20 07:00:04FORECAST2026143-14122.17210.68816.4366.978212500.251.92.15FF-9.82866.17251361.5496986479124.2159525453510.065368767280905161112123DRYL
2026-02-20 03:00:19FORECAST2026143-14122.26211.15616.70966.978212500.251.92.15FF-9.73866.26251361.5496986479124.2159525453510.066756854948759161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 23:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.93810.52616.2326500.191.92.09FF-10.06262.93851360.3591302060223.4233434633910.061864146138307161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 19:00:01FORECAST2026143-14122.22610.14816.1876500.191.92.09FF-9.77463.22651360.3591302060223.4233434633910.066198916703317161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 15:00:01FORECAST2026143-14121.95610.416.1786500.191.92.09FF-10.04462.95651360.3591302060223.4233434633910.06212843398131161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 11:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.5789.66215.6265.45156612249900.191.92.09FF-10.42262.57851360.6314281564423.6038917658320.056759983083274161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 07:00:04FORECAST2026143-14120.5349.21214.87365.74635734000200.271.92.17FF-11.46662.53451360.8090211755823.7218788377060.04381179036866161112123DRYL
2026-02-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026143-14120.3369.26614.80165.3672275554800.21.92.1FF-11.66462.33651360.5805950478823.5701538085850.041647438740459161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 23:00:02FORECAST2026143-14120.6968.92414.8164.40856698121200.311.92.21FF-11.30458.69651360.0020186747723.1872141331850.045649117143872161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 19:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.0028.99614.99964.29413173351400.291.92.19FF-10.99859.00251359.9328598815923.1415707084470.049287738777945161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.9929.51815.75564.49076870574900.331.92.23FF-10.00860.99251360.0516847754323.2200099249680.062659642349353161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.4349.39215.41366.0102162838900.391.92.29FF-10.56659.43451360.9678667215623.8275669538250.054813336565955161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 07:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.86611.24616.55665.4376259370500.281.92.18FF-10.13460.86651360.6230267852623.598314731060.060815731564042161112123DRYL
2026-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.97410.77816.37665.51802213896400.291.92.19FF-10.02660.97451360.6714753036623.6304817038380.062393598831896161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.79411.17416.48464.20970545807500.221.962.18FF-10.20657.79451359.8818240841923.107905924160.05978121569029161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 19:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.72210.29216.00764.31170364596100.231.962.19FF-10.27857.72251359.9434807504623.1485784633190.058760491099371161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 15:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.84811.67816.76364.77432147845600.321.962.28FF-10.15256.84851360.2229271767123.3331956888550.060555803777734161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2026143-14123.73811.87617.80765.71506866632400.371.962.33FF-8.26261.73851360.7901780406623.7093513240770.092889452592565161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026143-14123.23411.98417.60965.75497018434100.411.862.27FF-8.76663.23451360.8142078691923.7253274805250.083230246817649161112123DRYL
2026-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2026143-14123.41411.80417.60965.69324950383900.341.92.24FF-8.58662.41451360.7770368906823.7006158997150.086589657679418161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026143-14122.8211.55217.18664.45747578147700.122.172.29FF-9.1855.8251360.0315705134623.2067262369390.075875551420698161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026143-14122.71211.31817.01564.64017529410800.152.182.33FF-9.28855.71251360.1419293582923.2796374444780.07404057592864161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 15:00:02FORECAST2026143-14120.76810.5815.67464.25268639314500.122.152.27FF-11.23253.76851359.90780748523.1250434847780.046485285577503161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.34410.34615.84566.81491848797800.282.172.45FF-10.65653.34451361.4516480593224.1503624024290.053623643693002161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2026143-14122.20811.85817.03366.93873804141400.292.152.44FF-9.79254.20851361.5259997673824.2000941935890.065921300788485161112123DRYL
2026-02-16 03:00:05FORECAST2026143-14122.35211.46216.90766.28290959177500.182.162.34FF-9.64856.35251361.1319188106123.9368743252280.068167563159377161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026143-14122.2812.32617.30367.8153466884170.192913490.382913492.142.52291349FF-9.7259.2851362.0517212991224.5526629990380.067037180507424161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 19:00:02FORECAST2026143-14122.38812.18217.28567.1969059314150.1960630980.4060630982.022.426063098FF-9.61260.38851361.6809503669824.3038407989940.068738225139307161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 15:00:03FORECAST2026143-14122.42413.92818.17667.6209490966990.181102460.501102461.982.48110246FF-9.57661.42451361.9352377664824.4744042893090.069312551211056161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026143-14124.87216.89820.88566.6420057717060.1200788050.3000788052.032.330078805FF-7.12863.87251361.3477775370624.0809406762170.11759234283959161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026143-14123.59415.72819.66166.1696909959290.133858340.283858341.962.24385834FF-8.40658.59451361.0638203831423.8914814245620.090049057620113161112123DRYL
2026-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2026143-14124.78215.85420.31866.7284089362080.1177165990.2677165992.082.347716599FF-7.21859.78251361.3996865466724.1156260733040.11547706641947161112123DRYL
2026-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026143-14123.9915.2619.62565.0593317826270.1311024330.2511024332.052.301102433FF-8.0155.9951360.3949255657823.4470530351590.098018075802588161112123DRYL
2026-02-14 19:00:03FORECAST2026143-14122.13614.30618.22165.06346722340.1311024330.2511024332.042.291102433FF-9.86453.13651360.3974203106223.4487057437780.064819820708451161112123DRYL
2026-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026143-14121.95613.74817.85265.9105309060050.0688976750.3188976752.112.428897675FF-10.04450.95651360.9078677061123.7876291686640.06212843398131161112123DRYL
2026-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026143-14124.00814.7219.36470.0571123727640.5165357120.8765357122.082.956535712FF-7.99248.00851363.3908452461625.4581132806440.098392166824191161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026143-14122.26214.70218.48270.1298664035440.5165357120.8765357122.12.976535712FF-9.73852.26251363.4341774173525.4875903087610.066756854948759161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2026143-14121.81214.79218.30272.4955892131010.5405514731.2005514732.093.290551473TF-10.18852.81251364.8388430251226.4492068929320.060038547519313161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026143-14122.49615.11618.80670.4320740204420.374015950.874015952.483.35401595TF-9.50453.49651363.6140860469425.6100942233340.070472246268612161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026143-14124.85416.2520.55270.8067622649440.3732285480.8732285482.633.503228548TF-7.14661.85451363.8369517901925.762116548610.11716711498284161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2026143-14125.91615.83620.87672.5442276676940.3787403621.0487403622.723.768740362TF-6.08463.91651364.8676340122726.4690407103590.14413893622563161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026143-14125.17815.87220.52574.2961163967720.1822835631.1922835632.493.682283563TF-6.82265.17851365.9022771386527.1851181721370.12498828770877161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2026143-14125.73616.41221.07474.4677423577160.1822835631.1922835632.523.712283563TF-6.26463.73651366.0033898516127.255446137520.13929550609861161114126DRYL
2026-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2026143-14126.76215.83621.29974.5364938576230.1531496891.1731496892.583.753149689TF-5.23872.76251366.0438821449627.2836275731180.16840553391777161114126DRYL
2026-02-12 23:00:04FORECAST2026143-14129.33619.92224.62979.9278799598370.3106300891.5806300892.784.360630089TF-2.66479.33651369.1973068389229.5091580225160.257190099893631621151210WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026143-14129.69622.49626.09679.4658419031370.3106300891.5906300892.744.330630089TF-2.30482.69651368.9287491395229.3172336526440.271294668658011621151210WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:16FORECAST2026143-14128.81423.30626.0678.6101504762080.4641734791.5541734792.634.184173479TF-3.18682.81451368.4305489370928.9623808919760.23743593598226161115127.5WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026143-14121.43413.51417.47478.5875878120640.0480315220.9580315223.254.208031522TF-10.56667.43451368.4173978571828.9530346055930.054813336565955161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:05FORECAST2026143-14119.59812.90216.2577.8952004283380.0370078940.9270078943.224.147007894TF-12.40261.59851368.0134599851928.6664822258730.034329324368305161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2026143-14119.6714.3617.01582.1726688975370.4594490671.3094490673.144.449449067TF-12.3357.6751370.497605079530.4447770295280.034993395919799161114126WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:03FORECAST2026143-14127.44621.6524.54886.5897116156770.8925201671.7825201672.774.552520167TF-4.55457.44651373.0346396812232.3009618726550.18983544028789161115127.5WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026143-14127.44621.68624.56686.4176375254580.8984256821.8184256822.724.538425682TF-4.55460.44651372.9363367043932.2282771653930.18983544028789161115127.5WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:04FORECAST2026143-14127.55419.27423.41488.2851003586680.7854334951.7154334952.914.625433495TF-4.44650.55451374.0008925761533.0187063353170.19336586959229161115127.5WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:05FORECAST2026143-14139.09217.1528.12188.6095218527930.8059059472.2759059472.544.815905947TF7.09260.09251374.1853162950533.156381961240.697306012018431631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:10FORECAST2026143-14139.09217.1528.12186.4871272703180.8059059472.2759059472.534.805905947TF7.09264.09251372.97604017632.2576262554810.697306012018431631151212.5WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2026143-14134.8814.924.8983.9143420206280.2917324411.6517324412.424.071732441TF2.8860.8851371.5013771979431.1742936273220.504829121726531631151212.5WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:14FORECAST2026143-14131.40622.94627.17678.3420279774160.1681103270.8581103272.93.758110327TF-0.59469.40651368.274219867228.8513492361980.34308876674885162113126DRYL
2026-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2026143-14131.40622.94627.17677.4359733554730.1681103270.8581103272.843.698110327TF-0.59470.40651367.7451554233928.476704056970.34308876674885162113126DRYL
2026-02-10 15:00:05FORECAST2026143-14128.88622.38825.63774.67097924983900.512.653.16FF-3.11470.88651366.1230690221627.3387680898410.24011025075165161113124.5DRYL
2026-02-10 11:00:05FORECAST2026143-14127.51826.65427.08666.66868485531700.112.312.42FF-4.48292.51851361.363806925124.0916497620070.19218464290699161112123DRYL
2026-02-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026143-14127.51826.65427.08665.91649089029700.112.212.32FF-4.48293.51851360.911455351223.7900166588610.19218464290699161112123DRYL
2026-02-10 03:03:55FORECAST2026143-14132.6332.19832.41465.1325517383180.1090551770.5290551772.22.729055177FF0.63101.6351360.4390923406223.4763178303880.39842615666691162113126DRYL