Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 19, 2026

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DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/20/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.34°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.89°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.62°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.094 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.15 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.55 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.88 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 67 in SWE DAY: 50 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 360.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 24.16 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-20 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2026	142	-142	23.34002	15.89	19.61501	66.9782125	0.15000000000001	0.33000000000001	3.55	3.88	T	F	-8.65998	81.34002	50	360.64985889004	24.155682886832	0.093831455060385	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-20 03:00:11	OBSERVATION	2026	142	-142	23.34002	15.89	19.61501	66.9782125	0.15000000000001	0.33000000000001	3.55	3.88	T	F	-8.65998	81.34002	50	360.64985889004	24.155682886832	0.093831455060385	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-19 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	19.994	11.084	15.539	65.451566122499	0.087007921	0.267007921	3.55	3.817007921	T	F	-12.006	77.994	50	359.72809233238	23.544767021413	0.040719838804947	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-19 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.732	9.788	15.26	65.746357340002	0.168504028	0.348504028	3.55	3.898504028	T	F	-11.268	78.732	50	359.90636148884	23.662532251385	0.04961454265567	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-19 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.642	9.716	15.179	65.36722755548	0.099606353	0.279606353	3.55	3.829606353	T	F	-11.358	78.642	50	359.67706569053	23.51109259948	0.0484534171927	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.02	11.12	16.07	64.408566981212	0.075590592	0.385590592	3.55	3.935590592	T	F	-10.98	75.02	50	359.09628654458	23.128877224611	0.053479415248456	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-18 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.344	11.012	16.178	64.294131733514	0.062204758	0.372204758	3.55	3.922204758	T	F	-10.656	75.344	50	359.02686444803	23.083320518692	0.058107461026579	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-18 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.506	11.624	16.565	64.490768705749	0.101181157	0.411181157	3.55	3.961181157	T	F	-10.494	75.506	50	359.14614173547	23.161610758224	0.060536222549884	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-18 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.11	12.182	16.646	66.01021628389	0.160236307	0.470236307	3.55	4.020236307	T	F	-10.89	75.11	50	360.06581179622	23.768022113103	0.054734773291541	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-18 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.344	12.236	16.79	65.43762593705	0.092126034	0.362126034	3.55	3.912126034	T	F	-10.656	76.344	50	359.71965897525	23.539200486226	0.058107461026579	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-18 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.434	13.262	17.348	65.518022138964	0.121653609	0.371653609	3.55	3.921653609	T	F	-10.566	76.434	50	359.76829194827	23.571306916764	0.059447175580893	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-17 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.912	12.902	16.907	64.209705458075	0.14566937	0.35566937	3.55	3.90566937	T	F	-11.088	72.912	50	358.97563434565	23.04971974796	0.052003122487885	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-17 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.1	12.11	17.105	64.311703645961	0.083464612	0.373464612	3.55	3.923464612	T	F	-9.9	73.1	50	359.03752575298	23.090314954005	0.070123550168785	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.362	13.172	17.267	64.774321478456	0.12992133	0.45992133	3.55	4.00992133	T	F	-10.638	72.362	50	359.31803609582	23.274581983078	0.058373495094335	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-17 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.126	14.054	18.59	65.715068666324	0.107480373	0.507480373	3.55	4.057480373	T	F	-8.874	75.126	50	359.88744661379	23.650028266373	0.089365378157498	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-17 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.91	13.748	18.329	65.754970184341	0.081889808	0.451889808	3.55	4.001889808	T	F	-9.09	76.91	50	359.91156792938	23.665974418196	0.085019769399111	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-17 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.532	13.568	18.05	65.693249503839	0.063779562	0.423779562	3.55	3.973779562	T	F	-9.468	75.532	50	359.87425543244	23.641309252132	0.077797833995963	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.1	13.496	17.798	64.457475781477	0.047637821	0.247637821	3.77	4.017637821	T	F	-9.9	70.1	50	359.1259508939	23.148352282244	0.070123550168785	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-16 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.01	13.226	17.618	64.640175294108	0.039763801	0.289763801	3.77	4.059763801	T	F	-9.99	70.01	50	359.23672990014	23.221125192827	0.068600379368595	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.668	13.01	17.339	64.252686393145	0.065354366	0.225354366	3.77	3.995354366	T	F	-10.332	69.668	50	359.00171667123	23.066824715877	0.063043418670505	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-16 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.678	11.768	16.223	66.814918487978	0.226771776	0.406771776	3.77	4.176771776	T	F	-11.322	68.678	50	360.55143500039	24.090214740274	0.048915241181513	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-16 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.516	12.938	16.727	66.938738041414	0.27165369	0.46165369	3.71	4.17165369	T	F	-11.484	68.516	50	360.62606978244	24.139854016071	0.046864346071373	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-16 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.84	12.398	16.619	66.282909591775	0.176771749	0.326771749	3.74	4.066771749	T	F	-11.16	70.84	50	360.23048846916	23.877124899402	0.051036986825621	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-15 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.234	11.84	17.537	66.458658853972	0.042519708	0.372519708	3.69	4.062519708	T	F	-8.766	74.234	50	360.33656120469	23.947484593716	0.09159897070379	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-15 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.928	12.164	17.546	65.82937727448	0.051574831	0.271574831	3.69	3.961574831	T	F	-9.072	74.928	50	359.95654206719	23.695715010158	0.085375760614581	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.288	13.64	18.464	66.369713093387	0.085433117	0.375433117	3.65	4.025433117	T	F	-8.712	76.288	50	360.28288427921	23.911871662069	0.092731107927223	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-15 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.108	15.134	19.121	65.811436545394	0.144881968	0.274881968	3.67	3.944881968	T	F	-8.892	76.108	50	359.94569886717	23.688543520785	0.088997072474794	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-15 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.488	14.054	17.771	65.195680642884	0.148031576	0.158031576	3.68	3.838031576	T	F	-10.512	72.488	50	359.57324239417	23.442622278857	0.060262513239348	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-15 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.722	13.082	17.402	65.842249685026	0.153937091	0.203937091	3.76	3.963937091	T	F	-10.278	71.722	50	359.96432172093	23.700860748451	0.063896828749778	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.038	13.712	17.375	64.029990434017	0.101574858	0.251574858	3.65	3.901574858	T	F	-10.962	69.038	50	358.86654617224	22.978221518497	0.053728650824243	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-14 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.138	12.866	16.502	64.020516638207	0.101574858	0.261574858	3.63	3.891574858	T	F	-11.862	68.138	50	358.86079413554	22.974453441754	0.042345909405142	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.192	12.452	16.322	65.390821468941	0.160236307	0.420236307	3.67	4.090236307	T	F	-11.808	66.192	50	359.69134161545	23.5205123035	0.042969024874184	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-14 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	19.4	10.688	15.044	66.133724022367	0.182283563	0.412283563	3.76	4.172283563	T	F	-12.6	61.4	50	360.14041097566	23.817426548767	0.034538350210376	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-14 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	19.616	10.778	15.197	66.13756145463	0.182283563	0.362283563	3.83	4.192283563	T	F	-12.384	66.616	50	360.14272842562	23.818961833687	0.036690742151161	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-02-14 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	19.706	11.858	15.782	68.127133915483	0.438189213	0.668189213	3.81	4.478189213	T	F	-12.294	67.706	50	361.34120732261	24.61714082045	0.037619282917949	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-13 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	19.706	14.63	17.168	67.29378053231	0.499212868	0.609212868	4.1	4.709212868	T	F	-12.294	67.706	50	360.83994884014	24.282284324538	0.037619282917949	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.768	15.98	18.374	67.843648040211	0.498819167	0.608819167	4.25	4.858819167	T	F	-11.232	73.768	50	361.17081084858	24.503145373609	0.050085144860509	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.552	15.872	18.212	69.557986197469	0.665748391	0.825748391	4.29	5.115748391	T	F	-11.448	74.552	50	362.19938785578	25.193860021204	0.047314055334659	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.172	17.438	19.805	72.893124354069	0.875984725	1.215984725	4.01	5.225984725	T	F	-9.828	77.172	50	364.1876335287	26.546774459021	0.071360646665481	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-13 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.406	17.006	19.706	73.108836864577	0.875984725	1.215984725	4.04	5.255984725	T	F	-9.594	75.406	50	364.3156517448	26.634693550622	0.07549663499673	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-13 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.774	17.78	20.777	73.42836444664	0.849606758	1.249606758	4.08	5.329606758	T	F	-8.226	82.774	50	364.50515190592	26.765017136826	0.10338754470683	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-12 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.576	16.952	20.264	77.446260609627	0.708268099	1.598268099	4.18	5.778268099	T	F	-8.424	86.576	50	366.87493986636	28.413092204031	0.098943744996757	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	26.924	16.232	21.578	77.142575663751	0.702756285	1.602756285	4.15	5.752756285	T	F	-5.076	89.924	50	366.69666768368	28.287925432434	0.19399075118262	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-12 15:00:13	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	25.682	15.512	20.597	75.147851443089	0.650000351	1.390000351	4.06	5.450000351	T	F	-6.318	90.682	50	365.52228042833	27.468214028767	0.15371560008972	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-12 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.568	16.52	19.544	78.112622600476	0.303937172	1.493937172	4.4	5.893937172	T	F	-9.432	82.568	50	367.26563278787	28.688081768084	0.078464966904099	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-12 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.974	17.366	19.67	77.531311227331	0.291732441	1.441732441	4.4	5.841732441	T	F	-10.026	78.974	50	366.9248424891	28.448164160062	0.067998280944386	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-12 03:00:08	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	21.434	16.898	19.166	77.452624373176	0.368110435	1.368110435	4.35	5.718110435	T	F	-10.566	75.434	50	366.87867411587	28.415716136825	0.059447175580893	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-11 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.18	16.07	19.625	78.27654122312	0.524016031	1.514016031	3.88	5.394016031	T	F	-8.82	67.18	50	367.36163818063	28.755798414839	0.090477074248489	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-11 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	23.27	18.914	21.092	78.047138655347	0.54724439	1.54724439	3.82	5.36724439	T	F	-8.73	70.27	50	367.22726836284	28.661037531939	0.09235258851962	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-11 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	20.516	17.852	19.184	80.821196436374	0.59842552	1.67842552	3.89	5.56842552	T	F	-11.484	59.516	50	368.84690030676	29.81064778464	0.046864346071373	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-11 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.91	17.33	20.12	81.481868541866	0.739370478	1.629370478	4.11	5.739370478	T	F	-9.09	57.91	50	369.23095361918	30.085628024386	0.085019769399111	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-11 07:00:10	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.91	17.33	20.12	81.72707450568	0.739370478	1.629370478	4.1	5.729370478	T	F	-9.09	61.91	50	369.37332965237	30.187801632911	0.085019769399111	16	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-11 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	22.352	16.412	19.382	80.339801536601	0.620472776	1.470472776	4.04	5.510472776	T	F	-9.648	63.352	50	368.56665592356	29.610571989907	0.07452638068653	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-10 23:00:13	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	27.194	21.128	24.161	77.481817693914	0.240945012	1.200945012	4.12	5.320945012	T	F	-4.806	75.194	50	366.89580395111	28.427753794402	0.20352801780124	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-10 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	27.194	21.128	24.161	76.575763071971	0.240945012	1.200945012	4.06	5.260945012	T	F	-4.806	76.194	50	366.36356359713	28.054569444217	0.20352801780124	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-10 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	27.446	20.606	24.026	74.670979249839	0.070078778	0.900078778	3.99	4.890078778	T	F	-4.554	79.446	50	365.24064113331	27.272876335263	0.21267646038974	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-10 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	37.328	26.924	32.126	66.668684855317	0.079527602	0.189527602	3.96	4.149527602	T	F	5.328	102.328	50	360.46325943484	24.031611445182	0.67509519168438	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	37.328	26.924	32.126	65.916490890297	0.079527602	0.189527602	3.86	4.049527602	T	F	5.328	103.328	50	360.00918565484	23.73054220664	0.67509519168438	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 03:03:37	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	36.842	26.078	31.46	65.137078138318	0.388582887	0.498582887	3.85	4.348582887	T	F	4.842	105.842	50	359.53776472976	23.419239474878	0.65265321027825	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-09 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	27.338	25.232	26.285	59.714382745814	0.131889835	0.261889835	3.47	3.731889835	T	F	-4.662	87.338	50	356.23193319666	21.272170005187	0.20872669509015	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-09 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	27.338	25.232	26.285	59.642474999025	0.131889835	0.261889835	3.47	3.731889835	T	F	-4.662	92.338	50	356.18778953782	21.243921332468	0.20872669509015	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-02-09 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	30.884	26.888	28.886	59.930215134432	0.155118194	0.295118194	3.62	3.915118194	T	F	-1.116	96.884	50	356.36438277009	21.356994125661	0.35873670182044	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-02-09 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	29.408	28.166	28.787	62.367999094358	0.07086618	0.50086618	3.54	4.04086618	T	F	-2.592	87.408	50	357.85534361279	22.318721746354	0.29159936999404	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-09 07:01:30	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	29.408	28.166	28.787	63.195731338008	0.07086618	0.50086618	3.7	4.20086618	T	F	-2.592	82.408	50	358.35949291838	22.646790236895	0.29159936999404	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-09 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	142	-142	35.582	35.042	35.312	62.189059764064	0.029133874	0.449133874	3.53	3.979133874	T	F	3.582	100.582	50	357.74621710301	22.247900875787	0.59210622217167	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L