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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 18, 2026

[ Tuesday, February 17, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 19, 2026 ]

DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 23.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.05°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.105
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 103

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.26 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.25 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-19 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026141-14323.0399616.0500219.5449964.8489516666670.100000000000010.260000000000014.414.67TF-8.96004103.0399649358.45509352833 23.2454370348890.105029739218616 1112123WETL
2026-02-19 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026141-14323.0399616.0500219.5449964.8489516666670.100000000000010.260000000000014.414.67TF-8.96004103.0399649358.45509352833 23.2454370348890.105029739218616 1112123WETL
2026-02-18 11:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.20210.68814.94565.1533319399440.2279528790.3879528794.414.797952879TF-12.79899.20249358.6401430432423.3666002866850.04218138630653161112123WETL
2026-02-18 07:00:03FORECAST2026141-14319.50810.90415.20665.0021218166420.1870079750.3470079754.414.757007975TF-12.49299.50849358.5482319723823.306395851810.045686543158722161112123WETL
2026-02-18 03:00:03FORECAST2026141-14319.65210.63415.14364.9290743124570.1716536360.3316536364.414.741653636TF-12.34899.65249358.5038183670823.2773210640550.047414909905525161112123WETL
2026-02-17 23:00:01FORECAST2026141-14319.68810.65215.1763.3879401227640.0700787780.2900787784.414.700078778TF-12.31296.68849357.5648700518522.665300572850.047855061502293161112123WETL
2026-02-17 19:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.2568.00613.63163.8349694426150.1492126790.3692126794.414.779212679TF-12.74496.25649357.8376047817922.8425525666640.042783672872543161112123WETL
2026-02-17 15:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.20211.10215.15264.0440566426840.1897638820.4097638824.414.819763882TF-12.79896.20249357.9650636273822.9255348110540.04218138630653161112123WETL
2026-02-17 11:00:03FORECAST2026141-14319.83211.44415.63865.1113128750430.2594489590.4794489594.414.889448959TF-12.16896.83249358.6146058528323.3498678032440.049648363960245161112123WETL
2026-02-17 07:00:04FORECAST2026141-14319.63411.6615.64765.3611130807970.3279529330.4479529334.414.857952933TF-12.36698.63449358.7663824905223.4493700955520.047196049759059161112123WETL
2026-02-17 03:00:04FORECAST2026141-14319.9411.7515.84565.3731088131390.283464720.443464724.414.85346472TF-12.0697.9449358.7736685800123.454150075370.051028096263174161112123WETL
2026-02-16 23:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.54410.61615.0864.1960736250170.066929170.496929174.414.90692917TF-12.45692.54449358.0576901734622.9858978403790.046113829386818161113124.5WETL
2026-02-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.88611.37215.62964.4220449356930.1098425790.5498425794.414.959842579TF-12.11492.88649358.1953122764223.0756745032260.050334475100831161113124.5WETL
2026-02-16 15:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.74211.53415.63863.8964050946470.0507874290.4607874294.414.870787429TF-12.25892.74249357.8750627691622.866929983970.048521395678346161112123WETL
2026-02-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.95810.7615.35965.4172978541180.0488189240.4788189244.414.888818924TF-12.04292.95849358.800506652523.4717596138950.051260981015912161112123WETL
2026-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2026141-14319.8512.07415.96265.2461379719290.0212598540.4312598544.414.841259854TF-12.1592.8549358.696536481423.4035637093190.049876236374896161112123WETL
2026-02-16 03:00:04FORECAST2026141-14320.49813.116.79965.15224846908600.424.414.83TF-11.50295.49849358.6394845953823.3661688111830.058647454514601161112123WETL
2026-02-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026141-14321.27213.80217.53766.1652603146410.1539370910.5939370914.374.963937091TF-10.72896.27249359.254322541923.7701557701450.070655503603617161113124.5WETL
2026-02-15 19:00:01FORECAST2026141-14320.9313.49617.21365.4677758546520.15748040.47748044.374.8474804TF-11.0796.9349358.8311606187823.4918779930550.065135853965026161112123WETL
2026-02-15 15:00:02FORECAST2026141-14321.2914.1817.73565.7750334291880.2303150850.5103150854.374.880315085TF-10.7198.2949359.0176653397923.6143989393940.070955642480512161113124.5WETL
2026-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2026141-14321.95614.37818.16764.8465866554520.0389763990.3689763994.374.738976399TF-10.04497.95649358.4536551476923.2444960104980.082760042407736161112123WETL
2026-02-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026141-14320.28213.42416.85364.15740058523900.264.374.63TF-11.71896.28249358.0341294210822.9705390644560.055598703995735161112123WETL
2026-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2026141-14320.60613.89217.24964.72365892851900.324.434.75TF-11.39494.60649358.3788796034423.1955923706380.060220105136753161112123WETL
2026-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026141-14320.98413.58617.28563.3116999471350.0248031630.4148031634.334.744803163TF-11.01692.98449357.5183246362422.6350928949720.065984496688734161112123WETL
2026-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2026141-14320.08413.56816.82663.2858988494050.0248031630.4048031634.334.734803163TF-11.91693.08449357.5025707578422.6248715313830.052914855258124161112123WETL
2026-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2026141-14319.83213.04616.43964.1574530975530.0870079210.5370079214.334.867007921TF-12.16890.83249358.034161414722.9705599182850.049648363960245161113124.5WETL
2026-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026141-14319.29212.12815.7164.7112335481410.1791339550.5991339554.334.929133955TF-12.70887.29249358.3713200859423.1906501910370.043189032887329161113124.5WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026141-14320.58813.20816.89864.7541248794220.1791339550.5091339554.444.949133955TF-11.41291.58849358.3974138725923.2077108943680.0599557358885161113124.5WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:05FORECAST2026141-14320.33613.35216.84464.8239569600660.2153544470.5153544474.464.975354447TF-11.66493.33649358.4398915136123.2354921002490.056348946476249161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026141-14321.43412.61417.02463.41729058864500.334.825.15TF-10.56693.43449357.58278641222.6769314753880.07339199392471161112123WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026141-14321.88413.08217.48364.08532089841400.424.885.3TF-10.11697.88449357.9902101804422.9419174979040.081417042576418161112123WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2026141-14322.02814.16218.09564.47578592328100.534.865.39TF-9.97299.02849358.2280302386223.0970337893840.084119587365822161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026141-14322.2815.13418.70766.4242899931520.1291339280.5091339284.785.289133928TF-9.72100.2849359.4112843361823.8736393775580.089009654439479161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2026141-14322.67616.12419.466.5737737619120.1291339280.4591339284.865.319133928TF-9.32497.67649359.501818635423.9333927408290.097115301269892161112123WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026141-14323.41416.7920.10267.1687734396540.1720473370.6020473374.825.422047337TF-8.586104.41449359.8618374951324.1714782322880.113637638666161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026141-14324.29619.27421.78572.0066833313130.5614176261.1914176264.826.011417626TF-7.704108.29649362.7690209937426.1217940171070.13588803128666161114126WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026141-14324.42219.38221.90272.0369615260780.5803152741.1903152744.85.990315274TF-7.578108.42249362.7871034260126.1340806116570.13929427200609161114126WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:10FORECAST2026141-14323.86418.15821.01170.3617511737530.4413388210.9213388214.825.741338821TF-8.136109.86449361.7845585691525.4557950885490.12464348052978161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026141-14323.01817.61820.31875.5965099197260.610236551.750236554.786.53023655TT-8.982105.01849364.9032379199427.5854112451550.10453940190936161115127.5WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026141-14322.2817.04219.66175.1323120787960.5980318191.6880318194.86.488031819TT-9.72102.2849364.6283581530627.3953715975350.089009654439479161115127.5WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2026141-14322.26217.11419.68874.3123152589550.4838585291.4938585294.86.293858529TT-9.73899.26249364.1419955414627.0602347717020.088653518584457161114126WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2026141-14323.5416.68220.11173.7053306768140.3744096511.1344096514.685.814409651TF-8.4688.5449363.7813233195226.8126227293140.11664719846768161114126WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026141-14327.30217.79822.5573.3007626671920.3688978371.1588978374.65.758897837TF-4.69892.30249363.5406186716426.6478046091340.2327906873815161114126WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:04FORECAST2026141-14325.80815.15220.4875.1425188250280.3338584481.3138584484.65.913858448TF-6.19283.80849364.6344056735727.3995476925790.18057074953581161114126WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2026141-14324.8917.83421.36274.7665694052470.7299216541.1199216544.825.939921654TF-7.1179.8949364.411551282727.2458015410510.1524500746729161114126WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:09FORECAST2026141-14325.05217.67221.36275.0117753690610.7299216541.1199216544.815.929921654TF-6.94884.05249364.5569280166727.3460623936220.15718964138206161114126WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026141-14324.72818.75221.7474.3680163963740.736220871.076220874.755.82622087TF-7.27285.72849364.1750654923127.0829772416830.14780606859422161114126WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:12FORECAST2026141-14324.83620.322.56875.5997539799560.4484254391.3384254394.686.018425439TF-7.16492.83649364.9051577850727.5867401545690.15089145967677161114126WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2026141-14324.83621.34423.0974.6936993580130.4484254391.3384254394.625.958425439TF-7.16493.83649364.3683309247127.2160185656710.15089145967677161114126WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2026141-14325.17821.48823.33374.0908938493090.4421262231.1421262234.625.762126223TF-6.82297.17849364.0104906368326.9698626218080.16094207601617161114126WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2026141-14332.68425.08828.88666.7190656553170.0330708840.4030708844.615.013070884TF0.684109.68449359.589781204323.9914942211510.47255801016354162112124WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026141-14332.68425.08828.88665.9668716902970.0330708840.4030708844.514.913070884TF0.684110.68449359.1340369854223.6909489374360.47255801016354162112124WETL
2026-02-10 03:03:21FORECAST2026141-14332.61224.83628.72465.2468925383180.0330708840.4030708844.54.903070884TF0.612113.61249358.6969949379923.4038642825370.46904071821758162112124WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:04FORECAST2026141-14332.23424.63828.43659.7143827458140.0964567450.1264567454.414.536456745TF0.234105.23449355.3118474871321.2172276549690.45062087672902162112124WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2026141-14332.23424.63828.43659.6424749990250.0964567450.1264567454.414.536456745TF0.234110.23449355.2675357632721.1890351197260.45062087672902162112124WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:04FORECAST2026141-14332.95424.99828.97659.9302151344320.1007874560.1407874564.564.700787456TF0.954110.95449355.4448013264421.3018834119090.48576468688192162112124WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2026141-14336.78821.27229.0362.3679990943580.303149770.433149774.484.91314977TF4.788102.78849356.9414385987222.2617233192640.66823937850038163112125WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:29FORECAST2026141-14336.78821.27229.0363.1957313380080.303149770.433149774.645.07314977TF4.78897.78849357.4475073162422.5891566397980.66823937850038163112125WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2026141-14343.32222.22632.77462.2252709640640.2940946470.4240946474.474.894094647TF11.322110.32249356.8540681875422.2053410875980.892092793598165112127WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:04FORECAST2026141-14336.08625.53830.81264.24901180183900.434.494.92TF4.08698.08649358.0899379144523.0069246471850.63640363126815163112125WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:05FORECAST2026141-14336.08625.53830.81263.25216253269900.424.434.85TF4.086109.08649357.4819701607422.6115076791170.63640363126815163112125WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:06FORECAST2026141-14323.88219.72421.80364.82251906622700.424.424.84TF-8.11891.88249358.4390169437523.2349200099150.12509865374604161112123WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026141-14337.86835.40236.63563.9020634868850.2196851580.7996851584.315.109685158TF5.868125.86849357.8785124586822.8691754237270.71486996874811164113129WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026141-14337.86835.40236.63564.2486231586410.2196851580.7996851584.325.119685158TF5.868117.86849358.0897011849423.0067702684220.71486996874811164113129WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2026141-14326.61825.4326.02464.98314799783300.344.414.75TF-5.382102.61849358.5366964950323.2988432109910.2079099479236161112123WETL