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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 16, 2026

[ Sunday, February 15, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 ]

DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.188
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.08 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-17 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026139-14526.5899217.3800421.9849863.3053195833330.0799999999999980.214.845.05TF-5.41008142.5899247355.68053865343 22.5164701690270.1878234676552516 1112123WETL
2026-02-17 03:00:02OBSERVATION2026139-14526.5899217.3800421.9849863.3053195833330.0799999999999980.214.845.05TF-5.41008142.5899247355.68053865343 22.5164701690270.1878234676552516 1112123WETL
2026-02-16 11:00:01FORECAST2026139-14522.11813.96418.04164.3769564682540.3027560690.4327560694.845.272756069TF-9.882138.11847356.3389532834522.9400172834710.075508934785325161112123WETL
2026-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2026139-14522.33413.78418.05964.1966118460620.2448820220.3748820224.845.214882022TF-9.666138.33447356.2282747771422.868648284460.079365548421477161112123WETL
2026-02-16 03:00:04FORECAST2026139-14523.86414.1819.02264.3138997297080.2724410920.4024410924.845.242441092TF-8.136139.86447356.3002607734722.9150592450540.11102893552243161112123WETL
2026-02-15 23:00:01FORECAST2026139-14523.91814.97219.44564.2003891469910.2574804540.3474804544.845.187480454TF-8.082138.91847356.2305934477722.870142725410.11229140651161112123WETL
2026-02-15 19:00:01FORECAST2026139-14522.53214.43218.48264.2262952483410.2578741550.3478741554.845.187874155TF-9.468137.53247356.2464951334222.8803925776260.083029635090364161112123WETL
2026-02-15 15:00:01FORECAST2026139-14524.38615.27819.83264.0438155214430.2224410650.3124410654.845.152441065TF-7.614139.38647356.1344631335422.8082098577530.12366240415867161112123WETL
2026-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2026139-14523.32414.86419.09464.1166465663150.2429135170.3329135174.845.172913517TF-8.676138.32447356.1791834101222.8370148169850.098958675010683161112123WETL
2026-02-15 07:00:04FORECAST2026139-14522.53214.01818.27564.0938900101090.2507875370.3407875374.845.180787537TF-9.468138.53247356.1652111436122.8280138684660.083029635090364161112123WETL
2026-02-15 03:00:07FORECAST2026139-14522.35212.43417.39364.4163956028550.2692914840.4192914844.845.259291484TF-9.648137.35247356.3631505463822.9556296838750.079693520234909161112123WETL
2026-02-14 23:00:01FORECAST2026139-14523.34215.90819.62562.3375313601040.2574804540.3074804544.845.147480454TF-8.658134.34247355.0843866875722.135084090620.099344946111767161112123WETL
2026-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2026139-14522.74815.09818.92362.1968770680940.2405513110.2905513114.845.130551311TF-9.252133.74847354.9976224219422.0797434812430.087169856949625161112123WETL
2026-02-14 15:00:02FORECAST2026139-14522.49615.42218.95962.4671000291910.2830710190.3330710194.845.173071019TF-9.504133.49647355.1642852308322.1860829323110.08235417217578161112123WETL
2026-02-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026139-14522.47813.26217.8763.1580668704310.3681104350.4181104354.845.258110435TF-9.522132.47847355.5899263280722.458372345480.082017991035173161112123WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2026139-14521.1113.98217.54663.5767649318490.3326773450.4926773454.845.332677345TF-10.89133.1147355.8474844337622.6236318694350.059368744477638161113124.5WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2026139-14522.51416.08819.30163.3047148368160.287401730.467401734.845.30740173TF-9.486135.51447355.6801665904522.5162315191190.082691386357512161112123WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:01FORECAST2026139-14524.2616.68220.47162.7365512853350.2173229520.3573229525.245.597322952TF-7.74135.2647355.3303582195322.2922012416760.12052477976722161112123WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026139-14526.40217.74422.07363.3933899711040.3090552850.5090552855.245.749055285TF-5.598139.40247355.734716792622.5512296278930.18166475918406161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2026139-14526.1518.87822.51463.5145390781360.3688978370.5488978375.245.788897837TF-5.85140.1547355.8092241222122.5990588698710.17360640348335161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026139-14527.1421.50624.32364.3520886205670.1657481210.2657481215.245.505748121TF-4.86139.1447356.3236947591322.9301739827470.20657822923403161112123WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2026139-14525.35819.90422.63164.4754151310390.1216536090.2416536095.35.541653609TF-6.642137.35847356.3993565253722.9789964644080.14978422009472161112123WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026139-14527.42822.124.76464.7238591004180.2035434170.3035434175.285.583543417TF-4.572141.42847356.5517068714623.0774024375620.21682376630637161112123WETL
2026-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026139-14528.54423.12625.83566.3003201254960.2988190590.4088190595.275.678819059TF-3.456142.54447357.5161840887123.7034374551270.25918544820432162112124WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2026139-14528.77822.2825.52966.2609429317590.2862206270.3962206275.255.646220627TF-3.222143.77847357.4921401604923.6877662977270.2685801083036162112124WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:07FORECAST2026139-14528.424.42226.41165.6765994034110.1795276560.3195276565.245.559527656TF-3.6145.447357.1350540528923.4554158779480.25348960902381162112124WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026139-14527.24820.42623.83767.3887547966550.5574806160.7074806165.195.897480616TF-4.752144.24847358.1798371726124.1372932203310.21038633353535161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026139-14527.24818.98623.11767.2123115738630.5366144630.6966144635.25.896614463TF-4.752141.24847358.0723787196424.0668722844990.21038633353535161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:08FORECAST2026139-14525.68217.72621.70467.2471205014620.4937010540.6837010545.175.853701054TF-6.318137.68247358.0935820637424.0807622638410.15925333531999161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2026139-14526.1518.42822.28966.378888214220.1440945660.2940945665.095.384094566TF-5.85126.1547357.5641510046623.7347108089510.17360640348335161112123WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2026139-14526.34817.83422.09166.1715488055910.1602363070.32023630755.320236307TF-5.652126.34847357.4375466942923.6521960660320.17991860092551161112123WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026139-14523.05416.28619.6766.7147797504510.2303150850.39031508555.390315085TF-8.946122.05447357.7691095754723.8684873468420.093295461647491161112123WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14521.63215.22418.42868.0148877984930.2303150850.61031508555.610315085TF-10.368116.63247358.5607798020524.3874712071760.067353760838076161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:09FORECAST2026139-14521.32614.7218.02368.3479464377310.2303150850.60031508555.600315085TF-10.674121.32647358.7631677303224.5207257718630.06257824126114161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026139-14521.45215.24218.34767.8355816223110.2279528790.5079528795.035.537952879TF-10.548121.45247358.4517508750224.3157830041430.064511760829473161113124.5WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:09FORECAST2026139-14524.40417.40220.90368.946522746650.3834647740.6134647745.015.623464774TF-7.596126.40447359.126471251624.7605214190720.12411524889502161113124.5WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2026139-14525.77218.51822.14568.9765089007190.3834647740.5734647744.995.563464774TF-6.228125.77247359.1446567045924.772544609830.16195156784263161113124.5WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2026139-14526.47418.93222.70368.5911472420030.307086780.497086784.995.48708678TF-5.526128.47447358.910844119224.6181065557320.18400936505618161113124.5WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14529.31821.12825.22366.4165958180630.2901576370.4701576374.995.460157637TF-2.682131.31847357.5871686243823.7497224482510.29089255358194162112124WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026139-14529.31821.1125.21465.6661189417170.2901576370.4701576374.895.360157637TF-2.682132.31847357.1286447149923.4512520613490.29089255358194162112124WETL
2026-02-10 03:02:40FORECAST2026139-14529.04821.1125.07965.0886534838230.2901576370.4701576374.885.350157637TF-2.952134.04847356.7752312536323.2220193986780.2796284343296162112124WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026139-14530.59618.75224.67459.13526450002600.044.934.97TF-1.404124.59647353.101329371820.8807405077120.34686517895421162111122WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026139-14532.59419.20225.89859.0635791087400.044.934.97TF0.594129.59447353.0567521528220.8527954106530.44101900920585162111122WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:04FORECAST2026139-14532.50419.1325.81759.64109798573700.134.995.12TF0.504129.50447353.4156489137521.0780973465580.43666085039916162112124WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14528.90418.78823.84660.78277794164900.154.895.04TF-3.096120.90447354.1235940674721.5246157821020.27370863200835162112124WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:27FORECAST2026139-14529.01215.74622.37961.84715910670800.155.055.2TF-2.988116.01247354.7817603590421.9422439810830.27814268059816162112124WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2026139-14529.82216.64623.23461.08360402509700.114.925.03TF-2.178120.82247354.3097920472821.642519039630.31246693134606162112124WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026139-14527.33818.80623.07263.8391466533220.3799214650.4799214654.955.429921465TF-4.662114.33847356.0087464868122.7272945768370.21359094639908161112123WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2026139-14527.3221.79424.55762.9341100691910.3799214650.4899214654.885.369921465TF-4.68125.3247355.4520489639222.3700583738150.21294776263652161112123WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2026139-14527.21220.3923.80164.2531062035340.3641734250.4841734254.865.344173425TF-4.788122.21247356.2629511347722.8910012356470.20911241820004161112123WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14528.50822.56825.53864.111629086390.3440946740.4540946744.765.214094674TF-3.492129.50847356.1761028039622.8350301924030.25775532066719162112124WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026139-14528.50822.56825.53864.4581887581460.3440946740.4540946744.775.224094674TF-3.492121.50847356.3887894366422.9721758607940.25775532066719162112124WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026139-14528.47221.68625.07964.8428312637230.3181104080.4081104084.885.288110408TF-3.528122.47247356.6246287233123.1245506247940.25632929435131162112124WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2026139-14528.77821.14624.96268.924286168740.0681102730.7881102736.277.058110273TT-3.222112.77847359.1129847250524.75160612610.2685801083036162113126WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026139-14528.72421.1124.91768.6261677090360.0677165720.7877165726.497.277716572TT-3.276116.72447358.9321017338424.6321346097430.26639703111393162113126WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:49FORECAST2026139-14529.15622.60425.8868.717093419340.0799213030.8399213036.587.419921303TT-2.844119.15647358.98728530924.6685628209330.28410864192277162113126WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14536.73420.24628.4970.5487216024930.5921263040.6021263046.557.152126304TT4.734119.73447360.0962058978125.4043269799990.64062199391897163113127.5WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:06FORECAST2026139-14536.73420.26428.49971.5335291537460.6173231680.6273231686.777.397323168TT4.734120.73447360.6903076109625.8014506349620.64062199391897163113127.5WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:18FORECAST2026139-14541.2721.231.23571.98122866190.8562996750.8662996756.787.646299675TT9.27124.2747360.9598989011625.9823370205810.82052701976203164113129WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:11FORECAST2026139-14531.31621.7426.52866.22913475310800.037.117.14TT-0.684110.31647357.4727161580123.6751086889880.38004579692737162111122WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026139-14531.92822.7327.32965.59489147583400.037.17.13TT-0.071999999999999111.92847357.085080959323.4229571331650.40897224023722162111122WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2026139-14529.44422.125.77265.01791215745006.926.92TT-2.556109.44447356.7319013465823.1939634255120.29622065821375162111122WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2026139-14533.0830.41631.74860.394330704793006.526.52TF1.08135.0847353.882951922421.372524029190.46466339773955162111122WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026139-14533.0830.41631.74858.943263659042006.086.08TF1.08136.0847352.9819163177520.8059061603910.46466339773955162111122WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:06FORECAST2026139-14536.75236.0536.40158.6669631332790.0614173560.0814173565.976.051417356TF4.752143.75247352.809971661120.6982896004950.6414483198441163111122.5WETL